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(English/Chinese)蘇育平/連川普都搞不定的葉門武裝組織 如何鳩佔鵲巢?- 雲論 | ETtoday新聞- Houthi in Yemen's best future plan

外交官的國際新聞導覽及中東中亞的歷史故事 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia
2021-03-06
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蘇育平/連川普都搞不定的葉門武裝組織 如何鳩佔鵲巢? 原文網址: 蘇育平/連川普都搞不定的葉門武裝組織 如何鳩佔鵲巢? | 雲論 | ETtoday新聞雲 https://forum.ettoday.net/news/1931880#ixzz6oJfYolpl Follow us: @ETtodaynet on Twitter | ETtoday on Facebook https://forum.ettoday.net/news/1931880 ** 蘇育平/台灣前駐以色列代表處秘書** 美國國務院在2021年2月28日譴責伊朗支持的葉門胡塞(Ansar Allah/Houthi)政權,對沙烏地首都利雅德發動的飛毛腿彈道飛彈攻擊,及對葉門北部與沙烏地接壤,迄仍由流亡政府總統哈迪勢力控制的葉門馬里卜(Marib)發動之自殺式無人機攻擊,並盼胡塞軍(Houthi fighters)不要再繼續攻擊。 美國拜登總統於本年1月20日上任後,即取消將葉門胡塞政權列為國際支持恐怖主義國家的名單,也停止向沙烏地阿拉伯提供可用於葉門戰場進攻性的武器,當初藉口是取消人道救援物資進入葉門的障礙,但有意居中協調停火與和平的意圖甚為明顯。但胡塞政權顯然沒有領會美國的善意,還繼續攻擊沙烏地聯軍。沙烏地表示,已經成功攔截來自葉門彈道飛彈的攻擊。 另外,受到攻擊的Marib小城是古代葉門示巴王國的首都,「示巴王國」是一個在舊約聖經中就提及過的古老王國,大概在西元前8世紀立國至西元後5世紀滅亡。葉門雖然是一個極為古老的文明,很久前就有人居住,但是氣候是沙漠與半沙漠氣候,乾旱的東部幾乎沒有人能居住,西部山區與沿海地區較適宜人居。葉門除漁業資源外,是一個農牧國家,種有特產阿拉比卡咖啡。 分裂國家 南北對立內戰 葉門也是20世紀聞名的分裂國家之一,其中北葉門是在1918年11月1日脫離鄂圖曼土耳其帝國統治,成立神權教義統治的葉門王國,1962年9月27日神權政府倒台,葉門阿拉伯共和國取而代之。 南葉門,則是大英帝國在18世紀時,將南葉門亞丁灣附近各部落地區搶奪為己有並列為保護國。1967年11月30日,英國才撤離,但該地成立南葉門人民共和國。三年後,南葉門採行馬克思主義,並改名為「葉門人民民主共和國」。從此,南北葉門對立,並陷入內戰。 南北葉門因為意識形態不同,一直處於戰爭狀態。北葉門受到波灣阿拉伯國家的支持,甚至台灣也曾經派空軍人員赴北葉門支援對共產主義的南葉門交戰,稱為「大漠任務」,連我空軍戰鬥機飛行員教官,有時都上陣去跟共產陣營的戰鬥機交戰,也因此贏得難得的戰鬥經驗。 1990年共產主義崩潰浪潮中,兩個葉門形式上統一了,南葉門共產主義者在1994年,曾起來反抗政府但未成功。 2004年至2010年,受到伊朗背後支持的葉門什葉派「胡塞武裝」(Houthi fighters)已經開始與政府軍衝突。 到了阿拉伯之春革命浪潮於2011年爆發後,震波傳至葉門,連主流的遜尼派人民也都起來對抗獨裁者薩利赫(Ali Abdallah SALIH),指責其政府統治下的葉門高失業率、經濟不振與腐敗盛行,一些抗議活動引爆了暴力活動,示威活動擴散到其他主要城市。 2011年3月,反對派已經加強了要求立即罷免薩利赫。在以沙烏地阿拉伯為首的海灣合作理事會(GCC)調解下,2011年11月獨裁者薩利赫總統下台,並將其部分權力移交給副總統哈迪(Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi)。哈迪也在隔年2012年2月總統選舉中,獲得勝利正式擔任總統。 葉門總統遭胡塞驅逐 阿拉伯聯軍發動空襲 2013年3月葉門政府啟動全國對話會議(NDC),討論關鍵的憲法、政治和社會問題,但代表葉門35%什葉派人口的胡塞武裝民兵組織認為,全國對話會議沒有解決他們的不滿訴求,居然勾結剛下台的獨裁者薩利赫,並對軍事基地和敵對部落發動了大規模攻勢。 胡塞的部隊於2014年9月攻陷首都薩那,並於2015年1月將哈迪總統與其內閣驅逐出境。哈迪逃到阿曼,與沙烏地阿拉伯建立流亡政府,要求海灣理事會對葉門採取軍事行動驅逐胡塞。 由於實在無法坐視伊朗扶植的什葉派勢力,在沙烏地國土南部邊境蔓延滋長,並對沙國國土形成包圍圈,因此2015年3月,沙烏地阿拉伯召集一批阿拉伯聯軍,開始對胡塞政權的人員與建築發動空襲。 沙烏地阿拉伯想說,憑藉其精良先進昂貴的美國製戰鬥機與各項軍備,可以輕易在短時間內消滅只有AK與皮卡車的胡塞武裝,於是輕易動武。結果竟然一直到2021年的現在,還是打不下來,還受到胡塞武裝不斷的反擊,包括用飛毛腿飛彈攻擊首都利雅德。 葉門百萬人流離失所 世界最大人道危機 胡塞與前獨裁者薩利赫勢力狼狽為奸,於2016年11月宣布成立全國救助政府,任命包括總理和數十名內閣成員,以在首都薩那執政,並進一步挑戰哈迪政府的合法性。然而因為分贓不均,胡塞與薩利赫之間的緊張關係不斷加劇,2017年逐步升級為公開戰鬥,胡塞部隊已在當年12月上旬殺死薩利赫。獨裁者退場。 2018年以來聯合國多次調停都未成功,戰鬥也一直拖延持續到今天。由於葉門也受到沙烏地封鎖制裁,且因胡塞政權被美國列為支持恐怖主義國家名單之一,因此遭美國制裁,國際人道援助物資都無法進入葉門。 戰爭給葉門帶來了可怕的人道主義危機,數百萬葉門人流離失所,聯合國人道主義援助機構聯合國兒童基金會,將這種情況稱為「世界上最大的人道主義危機」。 持續戰亂破壞建設 爆發世界最大霍亂疫情 葉門3000萬人口中,65%是遜尼派穆斯林,35%是什葉派穆斯林,這是一個低收入農牧業國家,持續的戰爭使葉門的出口停頓,貨幣貶值、通貨膨脹加劇,嚴重限制了糧食和燃料進口,並對基礎設施造成了廣泛破壞。 衝突還造成了嚴重的人道主義危機,也就是世界上最大的霍亂疫情爆發,目前葉門有近100萬例霍亂,超過700萬人面臨飢荒的危險,超過80%的人口需要人道主義援助。 在2014年內戰爆發之前,石油和天然氣收入約佔GDP的25%,佔政府收入的65%。葉門政府高度依賴石油和天然氣資源的銷售來獲取收入,但是他的石油蘊藏量為30億桶原油及4785億立方米(2018年1月1日估計),老實說數量並不多。 經濟重創 央行無力支持匯率 葉門中央銀行的外匯儲備,在衝突發生前約為52億美元,但餘額已微不足道。中央銀行不再能夠支持重要商品的進口或葉門的匯率。 該國還面臨著日益嚴重的流動性危機和通貨膨脹率上升,幾乎所有企業都裁員。社會福利基金是葉門最重要的現金分配計劃,但社福基金自2014年底以來就不再運作,也未支付任何款項。 葉門在曠日持久的衝突期間和之後,需要大量國際援助,以穩定其經濟。長期挑戰,包括人口增長率高、失業率高、水資源減少以及嚴重的糧食短缺。 流亡政府哈迪 國內最後一塊領地遭攻擊 胡塞政權對流亡海外哈迪政府在葉門最後一塊佔有的土地Marib發動攻擊,有多項政治意涵: 第一,胡塞軍隊成功的攻擊並佔領該地,可以讓還對哈迪流亡政府存有一點希望的國內或國外勢力看清楚現實,也就是胡塞政權已經是事實上掌控全國的葉門政府,而不僅是一個叛軍武裝。 第二,哈迪政府看起來受到沙烏地為首的阿拉伯國家,甚至是世界上大多數國家的正式承認,但他們拿著世界捐助的金錢與資源放到自己口袋裡面,並在流亡的沙烏地等國過著舒適安寧的生活,對照葉門國內絕大多數人民民不聊生,疾疫叢生,人道危機隨時爆發的悲慘境地,人民難道還能繼續支持哈迪政府與胡塞政權對抗? 第三,美國有意調停葉門各方停火是好事,但是讓什葉派胡塞政權從此佔領葉門,卻會成為伊朗的一大勝利! 伊朗暗中支持外國什葉派武裝力量起來奪權的前例,已有黎巴嫩真主黨、伊拉克什葉派政府、葉門胡塞政權三處成功案例,加上原先即受伊朗支持的敘利亞阿拉威派阿塞德政權、以及不時受伊朗鼓吹蠢蠢欲動的沙烏地、巴林、阿聯等地的什葉派信徒,在中東背後做幕後黑手最順的,還真的就是伊朗這個力圖輸出宗教革命的什葉派宗教政權。 美國拜登政府新上任,有時存有若干不切實際幻想,在遇到這種玩代理人戰爭如火純青的對手伊朗,還真可能慘落下風。 第四,美國與沙烏地等可以做的,應是想方設法讓胡塞政權接受在最短時間內,以民主投票方式選出新政府。 胡塞政權迄今在國際社會保持低調,很可能是因為他自認無法承擔起人口3,000萬,但經濟已經破產,人道危機處處的葉門政府職責,所以不願意盡快將哈迪殘餘勢力全數消滅,而是養敵、資敵,甚至希望經由和平談判,讓哈迪返回執政負責經營國家。 但是,由胡塞政權掌握背後實際控制權的狀況,這也是今天發生在另一個失敗國家黎巴嫩的真實狀況,軍力比黎巴嫩政府軍強大不知多少倍的什葉派真主黨,已經在黎巴嫩國會中也是第一大黨,但就是不願意出來主持政府大局,因為在自己地盤中玩玩提供弱勢社福、蓋學校、救濟災民等還好,一旦擴及全國數百萬人民的生計要承擔,真主黨就縮回去了,怎樣都不願意出來組閣。 所以繼續觀察下去,也許葉門情勢會有你我都意想不到的轉折發展,到時候可能挑戰大家的想像力極限。 也許美國總統拜登能更恰如其會地介入調解哈迪與胡塞兩方和解共生,共同治理葉門,那麼拜登很可能就能取得今年諾貝爾和平獎了,葉門問題可比以巴問題要簡單容易解決多了,要砸的錢也比較少,希望美國可以趕快介入葉門,畢竟葉門人水深火熱真的快要活不下去了。 原文網址: 蘇育平/連川普都搞不定的葉門武裝組織 如何鳩佔鵲巢? | 雲論 | ETtoday新聞雲https://forum.ettoday.net/news/1931880#ixzz6oJfYolpl Follow us: @ETtodaynet on Twitter | ETtoday on Facebook On February 28, 2021, the U.S. State Department condemned the Iran-backed Ansar Allah/Houthi regime for launching a Scud ballistic missile attack on the capital of Riyadh, and the border with Saudi Arabia in the north of Yemen. The suicide drone attack launched by Yemen Marib, which is still under the control of President Hadi of the exiled government, hopes that the Houthi fighters will not continue to attack. After U.S. President Biden took office on January 20 this year, he cancelled the Yemen Houthi regime from the list of countries supporting terrorism and stopped providing Saudi Arabia with weapons that could be used in the Yemen battlefield. The original excuse was to remove the barriers for humanitarian aid to enter Yemen, but the intention to coordinate the ceasefire and peace in the middle is obvious. However, the Houthi regime apparently did not understand the goodwill of the United States and continued to attack the Saudi coalition forces. Saudi Arabia stated that it has successfully intercepted attacks from Yemen ballistic missiles. In addition, the small city of Marib that was under attack was the capital of the ancient Yemen Kingdom of Sheba. The "Kingdom of Sheba" is an ancient kingdom mentioned in the Old Testament. It was founded in the 8th century BC to the 5th century AD. . Although Yemen is an extremely ancient civilization, it was inhabited a long time ago, but the climate is desert and semi-desert. In the arid east, almost no one can live, and the western mountainous and coastal areas are more suitable for human habitation. In addition to fishery resources, Yemen is a farming and pastoral country that grows specialty Arabica coffee. Separation of the country North-South antagonistic civil war Yemen is also one of the well-known secession countries in the 20th century. Beiyemen broke away from the Ottoman Turkish Empire on November 1, 1918 and established the Yemen Kingdom under theocratic doctrine. Theocratic government fell on September 27, 1962. , Yemen Arab Republic replaced it. Nanyemen was the British Empire in the 18th century that seized various tribal areas around the Gulf of Aden as its own and listed it as a protectorate. On November 30, 1967, the United Kingdom evacuated, but the Nanyemen People's Republic was established there. Three years later, Nan Yemen adopted Marxism and changed its name to "Yemen People's Democratic Republic." From then on, the north and south Yemen faced each other and fell into a civil war. The North and South Yemen have been in a state of war because of their different ideologies. Beiyemen is supported by the Gulf Arab countries. Even Taiwan once sent air force personnel to Beiyemen to support the fight against the communist Nanyemen. This is called the "Desert Mission." Even our air force fighter pilot instructors sometimes go into battle. Go to fight with the fighters of the Communist camp, and thus gain rare combat experience. During the collapse of communism in 1990, the two Yemen were formally unified. In 1994, the Nan Yemen communists rose up against the government but failed. From 2004 to 2010, the Yemen Shiite "Houthi fighters" backed by Iran have begun conflicts with government forces. In the Arab Spring, when the revolutionary wave broke out in 2011, the shock wave spread to Yemen, and even the mainstream Sunni people rose up against the dictator Ali Abdallah SALIH, accusing Yemen of high unemployment under his government. Economic growth, economic sluggishness, and corruption are prevalent. Some protests have detonated violence, and demonstrations have spread to other major cities. In March 2011, the opposition has stepped up its demand for the immediate removal of Saleh. Under the mediation of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) headed by Saudi Arabia, the dictator President Saleh stepped down in November 2011 and transferred part of his power to Vice President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi. Hardy also won the presidential election in February 2012 and officially became president. President Yemen is expelled by Houthi and Arab coalition forces launch air strikes In March 2013, the Yemen government launched the National Dialogue Conference (NDC) to discuss key constitutional, political and social issues. However, the Houthi armed militia, which represents 35% of the Shiite population in Yemen, believes that the National Dialogue Conference did not resolve their problems. Dissatisfied with the demands, he actually colluded with the dictator Saleh who had just stepped down, and launched a large-scale offensive against military bases and hostile tribes. The Houthi forces captured the capital Sana’a in September 2014 and expelled President Hadi and his cabinet from the country in January 2015. Hadi fled to Oman, established a government in exile with Saudi Arabia, and asked the Gulf Council to take military action against Yemen to expel Houthi. Since it was impossible to sit back and watch the Shiite forces fostered by Iran, spread and grow on the southern border of Saudi Arabia, and formed a circle of Saudi Arabia, in March 2015, Saudi Arabia convened a group of Arab coalition forces and began to attack the Houthi. People and buildings of the regime launched air strikes. Saudi Arabia wants to say that with its sophisticated, advanced and expensive American-made fighter jets and various armaments, it can easily eliminate the Houthi armed forces with only AKs and pickup trucks in a short period of time, so it easily uses force. As a result, it was still unable to fight until now in 2021, and the Houthi armed forces continued to counterattack, including the use of Scud missiles to attack the capital Riyadh. Millions of people displaced in Yemen, the world's largest humanitarian crisis Houthi and the former dictator Saleh were embarrassed. In November 2016, they announced the establishment of a national rescue government, appointing the prime minister and dozens of cabinet members to govern in the capital Sana’a and further challenge the legitimacy of the Hadi government. However, due to the uneven distribution of the spoils, the tension between the Houthi and Saleh continued to intensify. In 2017, it gradually escalated into open fighting. The Houthi forces killed Saleh in early December of that year. The dictator retires. Since 2018, many mediations by the United Nations have been unsuccessful, and the fighting has been delayed to this day. Since Yemen was also subject to Saudi blockade and sanctions, and because the Houthi regime was listed as one of the countries supporting terrorism by the United States, it was sanctioned by the United States and international humanitarian aid materials could not enter Yemen. The war brought a terrible humanitarian crisis to Yemen. Millions of people in Yemen were displaced. UNICEF, the United Nations humanitarian aid agency, called this situation "the biggest humanitarian crisis in the world." Continuing war and destruction of construction, the world's largest cholera outbreak broke out Of Yemen’s 30 million population, 65% are Sunni Muslims and 35% are Shia Muslims. This is a low-income agricultural and animal husbandry country. The ongoing war has stopped Yemen’s exports, currency devaluation and inflation. Severe restrictions on food and fuel imports, and extensive damage to infrastructure. The conflict has also caused a serious humanitarian crisis, which is the largest cholera outbreak in the world. There are currently nearly 1 million cases of cholera in Yemen, more than 7 million people are at risk of famine, and more than 80% of the population needs humanitarian assistance. Before the outbreak of the civil war in 2014, oil and gas revenue accounted for approximately 25% of GDP and 65% of government revenue. The Yemen government relies heavily on the sale of oil and natural gas resources for revenue, but its oil reserves are 3 billion barrels of crude oil and 478.5 billion cubic meters (estimated on January 1, 2018), which is not much to be honest. The economy hits hard, the central bank is unable to support the exchange rate The Yemen Central Bank’s foreign exchange reserves were approximately US$5.2 billion before the conflict, but the balance is negligible. The central bank can no longer support the import of important commodities or the exchange rate of Yemen. The country is also facing a growing liquidity crisis and rising inflation rate, and almost all companies have laid off employees. The Social Welfare Fund is Yemen’s most important cash distribution plan, but the Social Welfare Fund has ceased to operate since the end of 2014 and has not paid any payments. Yemen needed a lot of international assistance to stabilize its economy during and after the protracted conflict. Long-term challenges include high population growth, high unemployment, declining water resources, and severe food shortages. Hadi, the government-in-exile, was attacked on the last territory in the country The Houthi regime's attack on Marib, the last piece of land occupied by the Hadi government in exile in Yemen, has a number of political implications: First, the Houthi army’s successful attack and occupation of the area can allow domestic or foreign forces that still have a little hope for the Hadi government in exile to see the reality clearly, that is, the Houthi regime is already the Yemen that actually controls the country. The government, not just a rebel force. Second, the Hadi government seems to be officially recognized by the Arab countries headed by Saudi Arabia and even most countries in the world, but they put the money and resources donated by the world into their pockets and are in exile in Saudi Arabia. The places and other countries lead a comfortable and peaceful life. In contrast to the tragic situation where the vast majority of the people in Yemen are not living, plagued by epidemics, and humanitarian crises erupt at any time, can the people continue to support the Hadi government against the Houthi regime? Third, it is a good thing that the United States intends to mediate the ceasefire between the parties in Yemen, but allowing the Shiite Houthi regime to occupy Yemen from now on will be a great victory for Iran! Iran secretly supports foreign Shia forces to seize power. There have been three successful cases of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Shia government in Iraq, and the Yemen Houthi regime. In addition, the Syrian Alawites, which was originally supported by Iran, have been successful. The German regime, as well as the Shi'ites in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE, who are often promoted by Iran from time to time, are behind the scenes in the Middle East. It is really Iran, the Shi'ite who tries to export the religious revolution. Sect religious regime. The new administration of the US Biden administration sometimes has some unrealistic illusions. When encountering such a prosperous rival, Iran, which is playing proxy warfare, it may really fall into a tragic fall. Fourth, what the United States and Saudi Arabia can do is to find ways to get the Houthi regime to accept the election of a new government by democratic voting in the shortest possible time. The Houthi regime has kept a low profile in the international community so far. It is probably because he believes he cannot afford the 30 million population, but the economy is bankrupt and the humanitarian crisis is everywhere. The Yemen government is unwilling to wipe out all Hadi’s remaining forces as soon as possible. It is to raise the enemy, capitalize on the enemy, and even hope that through peaceful negotiations, Hadi will return to power and be responsible for running the country. However, the fact that the Houthi regime holds the actual control right behind it is also the real situation that is happening today in Lebanon, another failed country. The Shiite Hezbollah, whose military power is many times stronger than the Lebanese government army, is already in the Lebanese parliament. The largest party, but it is unwilling to come out to preside over the government’s overall situation, because it is okay to play in its own territory to provide disadvantaged social welfare, build schools, and relieve disaster victims. Once it expands the livelihoods of millions of people across the country, Hezbollah will have to bear the burden. He withdrew, no matter how unwilling to come out to form a cabinet. So continue to observe, maybe the Yemen situation will have a turning point that neither you nor I expected, and it may challenge everyone's imagination limit at that time. Perhaps U.S. President Biden can more appropriately intervene to mediate the reconciliation and symbiosis between Hadi and Houthi, and jointly govern Yemen, then Biden will probably win the Nobel Peace Prize this year. The Yemen issue is comparable to the Israeli-Palestinian issue. It is much simpler and easier to solve, and the money to be spent is relatively small. I hope that the United States can intervene in Yemen as soon as possible. After all, Yemen people are in dire straits and are really going to be unable to survive.

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