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2021.04.26 國際新聞導讀-以色列右派黨魁Naftali Bennet有意組閣、納唐亞胡想推出傀儡幫他當總理並由他幕後操控一切、伊朗誓言報復以色列攻擊伊朗船隻、印尼潛艇沉默被尋獲

外交官的國際新聞導覽及中東中亞的歷史故事 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia
2021-04-25
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2021.04.26 國際新聞導讀-以色列右派黨魁Naftali Bennet有意組閣、納唐亞胡想推出傀儡幫他當總理並由他幕後操控一切、伊朗誓言報復以色列攻擊伊朗船隻、印尼潛艇沉默被尋獲 油輪襲擊目標後,伊朗陸軍首長威脅要“教以色列一個好教訓” 穆罕默德·巴格里(Mohammad Bagheri)警告軍事反應,暗示以色列在敘利亞高空緊張局勢以及就續簽核協議的談判中襲擊伊朗船隻 由TOI工作人員今天下午12:56 5 9月,伊朗武裝部隊參謀長穆罕默德·侯賽因·巴格里將軍在紀念伊拉克1980年入侵伊朗36週年的閱兵式上發表講話,在已故革命創始人阿亞圖拉·霍梅尼的神殿前,就在伊朗德黑蘭郊外2016年2月21日。(美聯社照片/易卜拉欣·諾魯茲) 伊朗武裝部隊首長穆罕默德·巴格里(Mohammad Bagheri)週日揚言要“教導以色列人一個很好的教訓”,似乎暗示這個猶太國是在周末據報襲擊敘利亞沿海一艘伊朗油輪的幕後黑手,但沒有為此直接指責耶路撒冷。事件。 Bagheri告訴記者:“我們沒有宣布有關最近發生的事件的任何消息,也不知道是誰做的,但是抵抗陣線將為以色列提供一個很好的教訓,”一些伊朗記者說。 巴格里說:“以色列人認為他們可以繼續襲擊敘利亞,並在其他地方和海洋進行惡作劇行動,沒有收到任何回應,”伊朗記者雷扎·哈阿斯蒂(Reza Khaasteh)和阿巴斯·阿斯拉尼(Abas Aslani)的推文說,巴蓋里表示。 Bagheri補充說:“過去幾天採取的行動以及將來違背他們利益的行動都會使他們感動。” “目前尚不清楚伊朗將如何應對,但猶太復國主義政權將不會保持和平。” 敘利亞國家電視台2021年4月24日播放的視頻的屏幕截圖顯示,巴尼亞斯(Banyas)沿海一艘船發生火災,敘利亞稱這起火顯然是在該船受到無人機襲擊後開始的。(屏幕截圖:Twitter) 反對派戰爭監測員稱,巴格里似乎指的是最近在星期六明顯瞄準的一艘伊朗油輪瞄準了敘利亞沿海沿岸的巴尼亞斯煉油廠,據稱至少有三人喪生。 以色列12頻道的新聞周六晚上說,事件中沒有人受傷,由此引起的大火沒有造成重大損失。13頻道的新聞說,大火顯然與以色列無關。 所謂的襲擊是在上週以色列發動的一次罷工中,一名敘利亞軍官被殺,三名士兵受傷,此前向以色列空軍飛機發射的一枚敘利亞防空導彈偏離了航線並降落在內蓋夫沙漠。 以色列長期以來一直在努力阻止伊朗在飽受戰爭war的敘利亞建立自己的領土。 在上個月發表的引用美國和中東官員的報告中,《華爾街日報》表示,自2019年底以來,以色列已經瞄準了至少十二艘開往敘利亞的船隻,其中大部分載有伊朗石油。 近幾個月來,至少有三艘以色列擁有的貨船在所謂的伊朗襲擊中受損,一艘在阿曼灣,另一艘在航行至印度,最近一艘 在阿聯酋附近。 自2011年戰爭爆發以來,數百次以色列的空襲也襲擊了敘利亞,主要針對來自伊朗和黎巴嫩真主黨恐怖組織的大馬士革政權同盟以及敘利亞政府軍。 巴蓋里的威脅來自以色列週一派遣代表團前往華盛頓,對美國重返伊朗核協議表示反對。以色列官員認為,伊朗對猶太國家構成生存威脅,並堅決反對美國重返該協議,使耶路撒冷與新白宮政府背道而馳。 伊朗目前正在與美國進行間接對話,由歐洲在維也納進行調停,目的是恢復核協議,即使伊朗將鈾濃縮到有史以來的最高水平。 Planet Labs Inc.提供的這張衛星照片顯示,2021年4月14日(星期三)伊朗的納坦茲核設施。伊朗於2021年4月16日(星期五)開始將鈾濃縮至納坦茲有史以來的最高水平,逐漸逼近武器級的壓力水平。在維也納舉行的會談旨在恢復對該站點的攻擊後與世界大國的核協議。(通過AP的行星實驗室) 伊朗兩週前曾指責以色列發生爆炸,炸毀了伊朗主要核電站納坦茲,據報導其內部的大部分鈾濃縮離心機遭到破壞。 上週,伊朗發布了一張照片,稱該人逃離了該國,是襲擊中的關鍵嫌疑人。 自爆炸以來,伊朗宣布將濃縮水平提高到60%,距離製造核武器所需的純度僅一步之遙,並且嚴重違反了2015年的核協議。 巴蓋里週日的聲明並不是軍事首長首次對以色列發動威脅。 2020年11月30日,在德黑蘭北部依瑪扎德·薩利赫(Imamzadeh Saleh)神殿舉行的葬禮上,伊朗部隊成員在被殺害的核科學家Mohsen Fakhrizadeh的棺材周圍祈禱。(HAMED MALEKPOUR / TASNIM NEWS / AFP) 在伊朗高級官員指出以色列可能是2020年11月暗殺頂級核科學家Mohsen Fakhrizadeh的罪魁禍首之後,Bagheri指責“惡意的猶太復國主義實體實施殘酷行徑”。他說,法赫里扎德之死是“對伊朗國防系統的重大打擊”。 Bagheri還承諾“不會停止由法赫扎迪(Fakhrizadeh)之類的人開始的道路”,並說“參與這一this弱行動的恐怖主義團體,指揮官和分子[應該知道]等待他們進行艱難的報復。” Iran army chief threatens to ‘teach Israel a good lesson’ after tanker targeted Mohammad Bagheri warns of military response, implies Israel behind attack on Iranian vessel off Syria, amid sky-high tensions and talks over renewing nuclear deal By TOI STAFFToday, 12:56 pm 5 Chief of Staff of Iran's Armed Forces, General Mohammad Hossein Bagheri delivers a speech during a military parade marking the 36th anniversary of Iraq's 1980 invasion of Iran, in front of the shrine of late revolutionary founder Ayatollah Khomeini, just outside Tehran, Iran, on September 21, 2016. (AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi) Iran’s Armed Forces chief Mohammad Bagheri on Sunday threatened to “teach Israel a very good lesson,” appearing to hint the Jewish state was behind a reported attack on an Iranian tanker off Syria’s coast over the weekend, but stopping short of blaming Jerusalem directly for the incident. Bagheri told reporters: “We don’t announce anything about the incidents that happened recently, nor do we know who did it, but the Resistance Front will teach Israel a very good lesson,” according to several Iranian journalists. “Israelis think they can keep hitting Syria and making mischievous moves elsewhere and in the seas and not receive any response,” said Bagheri, according to tweets by Iranian journalists Reza Khaasteh and Abas Aslani. “The moves made in the past few days and future moves against their interests will bring them to their senses,” Bagheri added. “It is not clear how Iran will respond, but the Zionist regime will not remain peaceful.” A screenshot of video aired by Syrian state TV on April 24, 2021, shows a fire on a ship off the coast of Banyas, which Syria says was apparently started after the ship was attacked by a drone. (Screen capture: Twitter) Bagheri seemed to be referring to recent apparent targeting of an Iranian tanker off Syria’s coast on Saturday, outside the Baniyas refinery, which allegedly killed at least three people, according to a pro-opposition war monitor. Israel’s Channel 12 news said Saturday night, however, that nobody was injured in the incident and that the resulting fire caused no significant damage. Channel 13 news said the fire apparently had nothing to do with Israel. The alleged attack came after a Syrian officer was killed and three soldiers wounded last week in strikes launched by Israel, after a Syrian anti-aircraft missile fired at an Israeli Air Force jet went off-course and landed in the Negev Desert. Israel has long sought to prevent Iran from establishing itself in war-torn Syria. In a report published last month that cited US and Middle East officials, the Wall Street Journal said Israel had targeted at least a dozen vessels bound for Syria and mostly carrying Iranian oil since late 2019. In recent months, at least three Israeli-owned cargo ships have been damaged in alleged Iranian attacks, one in the Gulf of Oman, another as it was sailing to India, and the most recent near the UAE. Hundreds of Israeli airstrikes have also struck Syria since the war began in 2011, mostly targeting Damascus regime allies from Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah terror group as well as Syrian government troops. Bagheri’s threat comes as Israel sends a delegation to DC Monday to voice objection to the US return to the Iran nuclear deal. Israeli officials believe Iran poses an existential threat to the Jewish state, and adamantly oppose the US returning to the deal, putting Jerusalem at odds with the new White House administration. Iran is currently engaged in indirect talks with the US, mediated by Europe in Vienna, aimed at reviving the nuclear pact, even as it enriches uranium to its highest-ever levels. This satellite photo provided from Planet Labs Inc. shows Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility on Wednesday, April 14, 2021. Iran began enriching uranium Friday, April 16, 2021, to its highest level ever at Natanz, edging closer to weapons-grade levels to pressure talks in Vienna aimed at restoring its nuclear deal with world powers after an attack on the site. (Planet Labs via AP) Iran has blamed Israel for an explosion two weeks ago that knocked out power at Natanz, a major Iranian nuclear site, reportedly damaging a large portion of the uranium enrichment centrifuges inside. Last week, Iran published a picture of a man it said was a key suspect in the attack, who had fled the country. Since the explosion, Iran announced that it was raising enrichment levels to 60 percent, a short technical step from the purity needed to make nuclear weapons, and a significant violation of the 2015 nuclear deal. Bagheri’s statement Sunday is not the first time the military chief has waged threats against Israel. Members of Iranian forces pray around the coffin of slain nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh during the burial ceremony at Imamzadeh Saleh shrine in northern Tehran, on November 30, 2020. (HAMED MALEKPOUR / TASNIM NEWS / AFP) After top Iranian officials pointed to Israel as the likely culprit in the assassination of top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in November 2020, Bagheri accused “the malicious Zionist entity of committing a brutal act.” He said Fakhrizadeh’s death was “a “major blow to the Iranian defense system.” Bagheri also promised that “the path started by the likes of Fakhrizadeh will not stop” and said that “terrorist groups, commanders and elements involved in this cowardly act [should know] a difficult retaliation awaits them.” 利庫德集團考慮一項“普京計劃”以讓內塔尼亞胡負責 為了吸引薩爾進入政府,內塔尼亞胡正在考慮將總理職位暫時交給貝內特或利庫德族的忠實擁護者,同時保留在總理的官邸中。 通過 塔爾施耐德和HAVIV的瑞特格古爾今天,晚上 10:4:23 俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京(左),中央總理本傑明·內塔尼亞胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)和俄羅斯總理德米特里·梅德韋傑夫(Dmitry Medvedev)(右)參加閱兵式,慶祝第二次世界大戰勝利73週年,於2018年5月9日在俄羅斯莫斯科紅場舉行。( Maxim Shipenkov /通過AP的泳池照片) 所謂的“變革集團”已經進入談判的高級階段,以組建橫跨左右,中間的“民族團結政府”。 公式正在成形。Yamina主席納夫塔利·本內特(Naftali Bennett)週五在Facebook帖子中承認,所考慮的政府不會推進法律制度改革或對西岸的主權,這是他過去所提倡的兩個問題。每個人都會得到一些東西,但是沒人會得到他們想要的一切。 150.5千 根據目前的會談狀況,納夫塔利·貝內特(Naftali Bennett)將擔任前兩年的總理,亞伊爾·拉皮德(Yair Lapid)擔任替代總理和外交大臣,基迪恩·薩爾(Jideon Sa'ar)擔任司法部長,本尼·甘茨(Benny Gantz)擔任國防部長,阿維格多(Avigdor)利伯曼(Liberman)擔任財政部長,其餘的高級職位–教育,室內,公共安全,衛生和基礎設施–將由工黨的梅拉夫·米拉維(Merav Michaeli)和梅里茨的尼采·霍洛維茨(Nitzan Horowitz)分開。 這個擁有58個席位的新政府在擁有120個席位的以色列議會中將不會擁有多數席位。它必須依靠阿拉伯佔多數的政黨拉姆和聯合名單以及可能的聯合摩西五經猶太人的外部支持,以換取其主席MK Moshe Gafni擔任以色列議會財務委員會主席。 儘管對於新的聯盟來說事情似乎已經到位,但是對於現在的新任部長們慶祝還為時過早。首先,“變革集團”的領導人實際上沒有組建政府的任務。目前的任務授權屬於本傑明·內塔尼亞胡總理。 Yesh Atid的黨魁Yair Lapid將於2021年3月7日在耶路撒冷的第12頻道“影響者會議”上露面(Gil Cohen-Magen / AFP) 內塔尼亞胡總統任期的剩餘九天,對於試圖取代他的,思想上和意識形態上截然不同的聯盟而言極為微妙。內塔尼亞胡(Natanyahu)以其政治狡猾而聞名,他將竭盡全力阻止結盟,以結束他目前連續十二年擔任總理的職務。同時,“變革集團”中的一些人-反對總理的政黨-相信貝內特向他們講話的唯一原因是改善他與內塔尼亞胡的談判立場。 來自變革集團的兩名資深MK在周六對以色列時報表示,儘管達成了初步協議,但他們看不到替代政府將如何組建,也不相信這一嚐試會取得成果。普遍的懷疑態度引起了人們對內塔尼亞胡營地正在考慮的其他選擇的關注。 貝內特掌權的一年 內塔尼亞胡迅速確定他想要的宗教權利政府的關鍵問題是基迪恩·薩爾的新希望黨,該黨誓言在競選期間決不擔任內塔尼亞胡的職務,儘管右派施加了巨大壓力,但迄今為止一直堅​​持這一承諾。 因此,內塔尼亞胡的支持者正在尋找暫時將內塔尼亞胡從總理的職位上撤職的方法,以期吸引薩爾加入聯盟。 一個選擇:內塔尼亞胡(Netanyahu)將貝內特(Bennett)擔任總理一年。這同時阻止了貝內特·拉皮德政府的任職,並允許薩爾加入擁有65個MK多數的右翼聯盟。 Yamina黨的領導人納夫塔利·本內特(Naftali Bennett)將於2021年4月8日在他位於耶路撒冷的官方住所與本傑明·內塔尼亞胡總理舉行會議。(Yonatan Sindel / Flash90) 該選項使左中角感到擔憂。當內塔尼亞胡的28天任期期滿時,耶什·阿迪德(Yesh Atid)領導人Yair Lapid將不會向貝內特推薦貝納特出任以色列下任總理,因為他擔心貝內特隨後可能會利用該任務轉離中左派並與內塔尼亞胡進行輪換協議。 但是,最反對貝內特擔任總理一年的政黨是利庫德本身,他的領導人直言不諱地反對這樣的觀念,即像亞米娜這樣的七人席位的政黨應領導一個由30人組成的政府。座位的Likud必須扮演第二小提琴。 還不清楚內塔尼亞胡在第一年之後重新擔任總理職務時,將對這樣的政府產生什麼影響。薩爾的政黨會離開聯盟,推翻政府並強迫舉行新的選舉嗎? 另一個值得關注的問題:內塔尼亞胡將在貝內特任期內竭盡全力,以表明這是暫時的和微不足道的。例如,利庫德集團的談判代表已經在與亞米納(Yamina)的會談中提出,要求內塔尼亞胡在貝內特(Benettt)擔任總理期間必須留在耶路撒冷巴爾弗街(Balfour Street)上的官方總理官邸。 上週,利庫德(Likud)嘲笑貝內特(Bennett)被“權力欲”蒙蔽了眼睛,內塔尼亞胡(Natanyahu)嘲諷地提議讓貝內特(Bennett)在巴爾弗(Balfour)住所度過一個週末。但是,內塔尼亞胡本人已經表明,他認為居住在那棟房子中是他仍然在掌權的信號。內塔尼亞胡即使在離開總理職位後仍待在官邸,這將使內塔尼亞胡傳達出明確的信息,即每次他與世界領導人,內閣大臣或政黨激進分子會面時,他仍然是以色列的真正領導人。 Medvedev選項 2016年11月10日,本傑明·內塔尼亞胡總理(右)與他的俄羅斯總理德米特里·梅德韋傑夫在耶路撒冷總理辦公室舉行了聯合新聞發布會。(Yonatan Sindel / Flash90) 貝內特優先方案的許多問題催生了另一個說服薩爾與利庫德集團加入右翼聯盟的提議,談判者已將這一提議稱為“梅德韋傑夫解決方案”,但該提議同樣容易被稱為“普京計劃”。 德米特里·梅德韋傑夫(Dmitry Medvedev)在弗拉基米爾·普京(Vladimir Putin)連任兩屆後,於2008年至2012年擔任俄羅斯總統任期。普京在梅德韋傑夫擔任總統期間擔任總理,然後迅速回到原任,任命梅德韋傑夫為總理。 觀察人士普遍將梅德韋傑夫的短暫時期視為普京的推定老闆,這是公共關係的把戲。梅德韋傑夫曾經是普京的忠實擁護者,並為這位長期擔任俄羅斯領導人的總統提供了一個解決方案,以解決當時的總統任期限制。 消息人士稱,這或多或少是Likud中“梅德韋傑夫解決方案”的含義。內塔尼亞胡將由另一位利庫德族議員取代擔任總理,允許薩爾加入政府,但內塔尼亞胡將保留他在黨和政府中的影響力。 參與談判的消息人士證實,根據“梅德韋傑夫解決方案”,內塔尼亞胡將繼續留在官邸,並將採取措施確保他對臨時新任總理和共產黨領導人保持影響力。 總理本傑明·內塔尼亞胡(L)在以色列議會議長亞里夫·萊文(Yariv Levin)出席2020年10月19日的講話時對以色列議會致辭。 多家媒體報導,內塔尼亞胡希望像Yariv Levin或Yuval Steinitz這樣忠實的利庫德MK接替總理一職,以確保接替他的人不受歡迎或有野心,無法嘗試使用這個詞可以作為挑戰Netanyahu領導層的平台。 目前是以色列議會發言人的列文在周末拒絕了這個提議,消息人士稱他對此提議感到侮辱。Steinitz尚未發表評論。 但是該提議遭到了利庫德集團的強烈反對。 利庫德高級官員上週告訴《以色列時報》,除非有正式的政黨批准,否則他不會配合任何輪換提案。該黨的內部憲法規定,該提案必須在該黨的擁有3,800名成員的中央委員會或超過100,000名成員的中央委員會中進行表決。 里庫德的抵抗是由頂級立法者推動的,他們一旦內塔尼亞胡卸任,便將自己視為內塔尼亞胡領導層的潛在繼承者。他們對內塔尼亞胡可能試圖降落在一個中產階級利庫德族效忠者頭上擔任to相總理的想法感到不滿。 Likud MK Nir ​​Barkat(中部)於2021年3月19日在耶路撒冷Mahane Yehuda的競選活動中與支持者合影(Yonatan Sindel / Flash90) 目前,內塔尼亞胡拒絕舉行這樣的投票,而是尋求緊急權力以根據需要推進輪換安排。如果要舉行正式投票,該黨的大手筆-尤利·愛德斯坦,以色列·卡茨,尼爾·巴爾卡特和米里·雷傑夫等人,很可能會競爭成為內塔尼亞胡的臨時替代者。 前耶路撒冷市長巴爾卡特(Barkat)可能有能力贏得這場競賽。 Likud mulls a ‘Putin plan’ to keep Netanyahu in charge To entice Sa’ar into the government, Netanyahu is considering handing the premiership briefly to Bennett or a Likud loyalist, while remaining in the PM’s official residence By TAL SCHNEIDER and HAVIV RETTIG GURToday, 4:23 pm 10 Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, center, and Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, right, attend a military parade celebrating 73 years since the victory in WWII, in Red Square, Moscow, Russia, May 9, 2018. (Maxim Shipenkov/Pool Photo via AP) The so-called “change bloc” has reached an advanced stage of negotiations to form a “national unity government” straddling left, right and center. The formula is taking shape. Yamina chair Naftali Bennett acknowledged in a Facebook post on Friday that the government under consideration won’t advance reforms of the legal system or sovereignty over the West Bank, both issues he has championed in the past. Everyone will get something, but no one will get everything they want. Based on the state of the talks at the moment, Naftali Bennett would serve as prime minister for the first two years, Yair Lapid as alternate prime minister and foreign minister, Gideon Sa’ar as justice minister, Benny Gantz as defense minister, and Avigdor Liberman as finance minister, and the remaining senior posts — education, interior, public security, health, and infrastructures — would be parceled out by Labor’s Merav Michaeli and Meretz’s Nitzan Horowitz. At 58 seats, this new government wouldn’t have a majority in the 120-member Knesset. It would have to rely on outside support from the Arab-majority parties Ra’am and the Joint List, and possibly also United Torah Judaism in exchange for leaving its chairman, MK Moshe Gafni, as head of the Knesset Finance Committee. Though things seem to be falling into place for the new coalition, however, it’s far too early for the prospective new ministers to celebrate. For a start, leaders of the “change bloc” have not actually been tasked with forming a government. The mandate to do so, for now, belongs to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Yesh Atid party leader Yair Lapid at the Channel 12 “Influencers Conference” in Jerusalem on March 7, 2021. (Gil Cohen-Magen/AFP) The remaining nine days of Netanyahu’s mandate from the president are extremely delicate for the tentative and ideologically disparate coalition that seeks to replace him. Netanyahu is famed for his political guile and will do his utmost to prevent the formation of a coalition that ends his current 12-year consecutive run as prime minister. Meanwhile, some in the “change bloc” — the parties opposed to the prime minister — believe the only reason Bennett is speaking to them is to improve his negotiating position with Netanyahu. Two senior MKs from the change bloc parties told The Times of Israel on Saturday that despite the initial agreements, they don’t see how the alternative government will be formed, and don’t believe the attempt will bear fruit. That widespread skepticism has drawn attention to other options under consideration in Netanyahu’s camp. Bennett’s year in power Netanyahu’s key problem in quickly nailing down the religious-right government he wants is Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope party, which vowed during the campaign never to serve under Netanyahu and has so far held to that commitment despite intense pressure from the right. And so a search is on among Netanyahu’s supporters for ways to temporarily move Netanyahu out of the prime minister’s chair in a bid to entice Sa’ar to join the coalition. One option: Netanyahu hands Bennett the premiership for a year. This simultaneously prevents a Bennett-Lapid government and allows Sa’ar to join a right-wing coalition with a majority of 65 MKs. Yamina party leader Naftali Bennett arrives for a meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his official residence in Jerusalem on April 8, 2021. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90) That option worries the center-left. When Netanyahu’s 28-day mandate expires, Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid won’t recommend Bennett to the president as Israel’s next prime minister because he fears Bennett could then use the mandate to turn away from the center-left and make a rotation deal with Netanyahu. But the party most opposed to the Bennett-as-premier-for-a-year idea is Likud itself, whose leaders are outspoken in their opposition to the notion that a seven-seat party like Yamina should get to lead a government in which 30-seat Likud must play second fiddle. It’s also not clear what would happen to such a government when Netanyahu reclaims the prime minister’s chair after the first year. Would Sa’ar’s party leave the coalition, toppling the government and forcing new elections? Another point of concern: Netanyahu would do his utmost during Bennett’s term to make clear that it is temporary and insignificant. For example, Likud negotiators have already raised in talks with Yamina the demand that Netanyahu remain in the official prime minister’s residence on Balfour Street in Jerusalem during Bennett’s premiership. Last week, Likud mocked Bennett for being blinded by his “lust for power” and Netanyahu derisively offered to let Bennett stay at the Balfour residence for a weekend. But it’s Netanyahu himself who has shown he views residing in that house as a signal that he remains in charge. Staying in the official home even after leaving the premiership would allow Netanyahu to convey the unmistakable message that he remains the true leader of the Israeli right each time he meets a world leader, cabinet minister or party activist. The Medvedev option Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (right) holds a joint press conference with his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev, at the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem on November 10, 2016. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90) The many problems with the Bennett-first option have given birth to another proposal to convince Sa’ar to join a right-wing coalition with Likud, a proposal that negotiators have taken to calling the “Medvedev solution,” but which could just as easily have been termed the “Putin plan.” Dmitry Medvedev served as president of Russia for a single term, from 2008 to 2012, after two consecutive terms by Vladimir Putin. Putin served as prime minister during Medvedev’s presidency, then promptly returned to his former post and appointed Medvedev as prime minister. Observers have generally viewed Medvedev’s short period as Putin’s putative boss as a public relations trick. Medvedev was and remained a Putin loyalist, and provided the longtime Russian leader a workaround to the presidential term limits in force at the time. That’s more or less what the “Medvedev solution” would mean in Likud, say party sources. Netanyahu would be replaced as premier by a different Likud lawmaker, allowing Sa’ar to join the government, but Netanyahu would retain his influence in the party and the government. Sources involved in the negotiations have confirmed that under the “Medvedev solution,” Netanyahu would remain in the official residence and would take steps to ensure he retains his influence over the temporary new premier and party leader. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (L) addresses the Knesset plenum as Knesset Speaker Yariv Levin looks on, October 19, 2020. (Shmulik Grossman/Knesset) Netanyahu is reported by multiple media outlets to want a loyalist Likud MK such as Yariv Levin or Yuval Steinitz to take the prime minister’s job in his temporary stead, ensuring the person who replaces him isn’t popular enough or ambitious enough to try to use the term as a platform for challenging Netanyahu’s leadership down the road. Levin, who is currently the Knesset speaker, rejected the idea over the weekend, with sources saying he was insulted by the offer. Steinitz has yet to comment. But the proposal has met with vehement opposition within Likud. A senior Likud official told The Times of Israel last week that he won’t cooperate with any rotation proposal unless or until it has formal party approval. The party’s internal constitution stipulates that such a proposal must be brought to a vote either in the party’s 3,800-member Central Committee or its 100,000-plus membership. The resistance in Likud is being driven by top-ranked lawmakers who see themselves as potential heirs to Netanyahu’s leadership once he steps down. They are unhappy with the idea that Netanyahu may try to parachute in a mid-tier Likud loyalist over their heads to serve as a puppet prime minister. Likud MK Nir Barkat (center) takes a selfie with supporters during a campaign stop at Jerusalem’s Mahane Yehuda on March 19, 2021. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90) For the moment, Netanyahu is resisting calling such a vote, and is instead seeking emergency powers to advance a rotation arrangement as needed. If a formal vote were to be held, the party’s big guns — the likes of Yuli Edelstein, Israel Katz, Nir Barkat and Miri Regev, among others — would likely compete to be Netanyahu’s temporary replacement. Former Jerusalem mayor Barkat, who has emerged in numerous polls in recent weeks as the frontrunner to replace Netanyahu, might be positioned to win such a race. 內塔尼亞胡(Netanyahu)擔任甘茨(Gantz)總理,貝內特(Bennett)繼續努力組建政府 內塔尼亞胡(Netanyahu)為避免與甘茨(Gantz)達成聯盟協議而發起上個月的選舉,但他的集團未能在新的以色列議會(Knesset)中獲得多數席位。 通過GIL HOFFMAN 2021年4月25日22:25 以色列總理本傑明·內塔尼亞胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)將於2021年4月20日在耶路撒冷總理辦公室與衛生部長尤利·埃德斯坦(Yuli Edelstein)(未見)舉行新聞發布會。 (照片來源:YONATAN SINDEL / FLASH 90) 廣告 藍白黨官員周日表示,在首相輪換的重大事件中,總理本傑明·內塔尼亞胡主動讓國防部長本尼·甘茨( Benny Gantz)輪流擔任總理,藍白黨官員周日證實了該消息,確認了第12頻道的報導。 內塔尼亞胡(Netanyahu)上個月開始 選舉, 以避免執行與甘茨(Gantz)的聯盟協議,這要求他在11月將甘茨(Gantz)擔任總理。但是內塔尼亞胡的集團未能在新的以色列議會中獲得多數席位,因此他一直在尋找使他至少能夠輪換擔任總理的選擇。 為此,利庫德州法律委員會在周日晚間舉行會議,批准了一項提議,以使內塔尼亞胡能夠將一個政黨合併為利庫德州,以防萬一或部分亞米納或新希望集團加入,以換取總理的輪換,並由亞米納領導人納夫塔利·貝內特(Naftali Bennett)或新希望基金會(New Hope)負責人基迪恩·薩爾(Gideon Sa'ar)首先。 “我們確實接受了內塔尼亞胡的主張,但這完全無關緊要,”一位接近甘茨的消息人士說。“我們將繼續看到內塔尼亞胡在最後一分鐘的瘋狂嘗試中沒有任何結果。” 甘茨從內塔尼亞胡得到的提議可能有助於他與正在建立聯盟的反內塔尼亞胡集團進行談判。甘茨要求保留國防部門的產品,薩爾也尋求這一點。 Bennett和Yesh Atid領導人Yair Lapid組建這樣的政府的努力在周末變得更具挑戰性,當時工黨和Meretz發送信息要求其領導人擔任高級職務。 工黨MK Omer Bar-Lev在星期天早上告訴陸軍廣播電台,他的黨魁Merav Michaeli值得當選下一屆政府的三大投資組合之一:外交事務,國防或金融。他說,她有資格擔任這三個職位,而且他還說,像工黨一樣有七個席位的亞米娜要求貝內特擔任總理。 Yamina派在周日舉行會議並獲得了Bennett的支持,以組建政府並防止第五次選舉,而該黨稱之為“惡化為混亂局面”。派系否認有報導說它可能解散,其兩三個MK加入Likud。 聯合摩西五經猶太人抨擊貝內特,說如果他能夠任命反哈雷迪·伊斯雷爾·貝特努領導人阿維格多·利伯曼為財政大臣,“他將在歷史上被銘記為摩西五經和猶太傳統的毀滅者。” UTJ說:“對於這樣卑微的行為,不會有寬恕,也不會永遠存在。” 宗教猶太復國主義黨領袖貝扎萊爾·斯莫特里希(Bezalel Smotrich)給貝內特(Bennett)致信,指責他未做足夠的努力組建內塔尼亞胡(Natanyahu)領導的政府,並抨擊他打算擔任七任總理的打算。 斯莫特里奇說:“它將破壞民主並破壞其最根本的理由。” 斯莫特里奇(Smotrich)在星期六批評內塔尼亞胡(Natanyahu)後激怒了利庫德人(Likud),那是一連串從加沙地帶猛烈襲擊以色列的火箭彈,並且騷亂持續在耶路撒冷。 “告訴我,在過去幾天無數次來自“阿拉伯敵人”的恐怖襲擊和私刑之後,以及在來自南部社區的加沙的一連串火箭之後,內塔尼亞胡希望我們'冷靜下來嗎? ”他在推特上發布了一段關於耶路撒冷暴力的視頻,並補充道:“也許是時候代替他了。” 聯盟主席Miki Zohar(利庫德)在社交媒體上進行了回擊,稱宗教猶太復國主義黨領袖“不感恩”。 “您只通過了[選舉]門檻,因為利庫德[在選舉中]給了您3個席位,”佐哈爾(Zohar)表示。“謙虛一點不會受傷。” 斯莫特里奇很快反擊,寫道:“如果有人說他們給了我三個席位,實際上我今天有十五個席位。” 他寫道,內塔尼亞胡“沒有給予我任何幫助”,並補充說:“自始至終,我強調我個人並不致力於內塔尼亞胡,而是致力於權利和宗教猶太復國主義的價值觀。” 亞倫·賴希(Aaron Reich)為本報告做出了貢獻 Netanyahu offers Gantz premiership as Bennett keeps working to form gov't Netanyahu initiated last month's election to avoid implementing his coalition agreement with Gantz,but his bloc failed to obtain a majority in the new Knesset. By GIL HOFFMAN APRIL 25, 2021 22:25 Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu gives a press conference with Health minister Yuli Edelstein (unseen) at the Prime Minister's office in Jerusalem, on April 20, 2021. (photo credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH 90) Advertisement In a dramatic turn of events, with his back to the wall, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has offered to let Defense Minister Benny Gantz go first in a rotation as prime minister, Blue and White Party officials said Sunday, confirming a Channel 12 report. Netanyahu initiated last month's election to avoid implementing his coalition agreement with Gantz, which required him to hand Gantz the premiership in November. But Netanyahu’s bloc failed to obtain a majority in the new Knesset, leaving him searching for options that could enable him at least to rotate as prime minister. To that end, the Likud’s law committee met late Sunday to approve a proposal to enable Netanyahu to merge a party into Likud, in case all or part of Yamina or New Hope would join, in return for a rotation as prime minister, with Yamina leader Naftali Bennett or New Hope head Gideon Sa’ar going first. “We did indeed receive Netanyahu’s proposition but it is entirely irrelevant,” a source close to Gantz in Blue and White said. “We will continue to see more of these last minute frantic attempts by Netanyahu to no avail.” The offer Gantz received from Netanyahu could help give him leverage in negotiations with the anti-Netanyahu bloc that is working on building a coalition. Gantz is demanding retention of the Defense portfolio, which is also sought by Sa’ar. Efforts by Bennett and Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid to form such a government became more challenging over the weekend, when Labor and Meretz sent messages demanding senior portfolios for their leaders. Labor MK Omer Bar-Lev told Army Radio on Sunday morning that his party leader Merav Michaeli deserved one of the top three portfolios in the next government: Foreign Affairs, Defense or Finance. He said she was qualified for all three posts and, he noted, Yamina, which like Labor has seven seats, is demanding the premiership for Bennett. The Yamina faction met and endorsed on Sunday Bennett’s efforts to form a government and prevent a fifth election and what the party called “deteriorating to chaos.” The faction denied reports that it could break up, with two or three of its MKs joining Likud. United Torah Judaism slammed Bennett, saying that if he enabled the appointment of anti-haredi Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman as finance minister, “he will be remembered in history as the destroyer of the world of Torah and Jewish tradition.” “For such a lowly act there is no forgiveness, nor can there be forever,” UTJ said. Religious Zionist Party leader Bezalel Smotrich sent Bennett a letter accusing him of not doing enough to form a Netanyahu-led government and attacking his intention to become prime minister with seven mandates. “It would destroy democracy and undermine its most fundamental rationale,” Smotrich said. Smotrich angered the Likud on Saturday night when he criticized Netanyahu after a barrage of rockets slammed into Israel from the Gaza Strip and riots continued in Jerusalem. “Tell me, after countless terror attacks and lynchings from the ‘Arab enemy’ in the last few days and after a barrage of [rockets] from Gaza at the communities in the South, Netanyahu wants us to ‘calm down on both sides?’” he tweeted alongside a video of violence in Jerusalem, adding “Maybe it’s time to replace him.” Coalition chairman Miki Zohar (Likud) shot back on social media, calling the Religious Zionist Party leader “Ungrateful.” “You only passed the [electoral] threshold because the Likud gave you three seats [in the election],” Zohar charged. “A little humility wouldn’t hurt.” Smotrich soon fired back, writing that “if anyone here who says they ‘gave me’ three seats actually did so, I’d have 15 seats today.” Netanyahu “did me no favors,” he wrote, adding that “throughout, I emphasized that I am not personally committed to [Netanyahu], but to the values of the Right and religious Zionism.” 專家:上週在以色列中部的“爆炸”是一次固體火箭燃料測試 美國教授根據衛星圖像進行評估,並在世界其他地方進行類似的試驗 通過猶大阿里毛 今天下午4:50 1 以色列中部的一家火箭工廠發生爆炸,製造商稱這是2021年4月20日的“受控測試”。 一位美國核不擴散專家稱,上週在以色列中部看到的神秘爆炸實際上是在一個秘密的以色列國防設施中對固體火箭燃料的測試。 米德爾伯里國際研究所教授杰弗裡·劉易斯(Jeffrey Lewis)自我描述為“軍備控制”,他根據該站點的衛星圖像和來自世界其他地方的類似測試的視頻錄像進行了評估,並將其發現發佈在星期五。 上週二,一個推特用戶上傳了有關該事件的視頻,顯示在以色列中部的基布茲·米甚馬爾·戴維(Kibbutz Mishmar David)南部突然爆炸的大火和濃煙,該爆炸發生在政府擁有的Tomer國防承包商附近,該承包商為各種製造推進系統以色列的火箭彈和導彈。這引起了廣泛的猜測,爆炸是伊朗的破壞活動所致,是對最近一次襲擊伊斯蘭共和國納坦茲核設施的報復,該設施被廣泛歸因於以色列。 當被問及該事件時,Tomer的發言人否認發生了意外爆炸,堅稱火災和煙霧是由“受控測試”引起的,但拒絕進一步闡述。 據劉易斯說,爆炸實際上是固體燃料火箭試驗的受控定向爆炸。 燃燒過程中隆隆聲低。幾秒鐘後,它似乎熄滅了。在詹姆斯馬丁防擴散研究中心,我們花費大量時間研究導彈。這個事件看起來和聽起來更像是對固體火箭發動機進行測試的最後幾秒鐘,而不是爆炸。”劉易斯在其網站上的一篇文章中寫道。 劉易斯和他的同事回顧了以色列已知的用於測試火箭發動機的地區的衛星圖像,發現在所討論的當天出現了大的燒傷疤痕,類似於在固體火箭燃料測試後發現的燒傷痕跡。然後,他們將這些圖像與視頻中的位置數據進行交叉引用,確定鏡頭中的爆炸和燒傷疤痕位於同一位置。 劉易斯寫道:“因此,最後我很清楚,米斯瑪·戴維(Mishmar David)中有人記錄了固體火箭發動機測試的最後幾秒鐘。” 武器專家質疑為什麼托默爾決定在反應中保持籠統,而不是承認試驗的性質,特別是當它公開生產用於著名的,無爭議的以色列導彈的火箭發動機時,包括“箭2”和“箭3”防空系統。和Shavit衛星發射器。 “為什麼Tomer不只是說這是一次可靠的火箭發動機測試?以色列為Shavit太空運載火箭等系統生產大型固體火箭發動機這一事實已不是什麼秘密。確實沒有任何理由要害羞,這只是……一種習慣。劉易斯說:“一種文化在過去的時代中發展了,但尚未適應當前的文化。” Expert: Last week’s ‘blast’ in central Israel was a solid rocket fuel test American professor bases assessment on satellite images, similar trials in other parts of the world By JUDAH ARI GROSS Today, 4:50 pm 1 An explosion is seen at a rocket factory in central Israel in which the manufacturer says was a 'controlled test' on April 20, 2021. (Screen capture/Twitter) The mysterious blast seen in central Israel last week was, in fact, a test of solid rocket fuel at a secretive Israeli defense facility, according to an American nuclear nonproliferation expert. Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at Middlebury Institute of International Studies and self-described “arms control wonk,” made his assessment based on satellite images of the site and video footage of similar tests from elsewhere in the world, publishing his findings on his website on Friday. Last Tuesday, a Twitter user uploaded a video of the incident, showing a sudden massive blast of fire and smoke south of Kibbutz Mishmar David in central Israel, in the vicinity of the government-owned Tomer defense contractor, which manufactures propulsion systems for a variety of Israel’s rockets and missiles. This led to widespread speculation that the explosion was caused by Iranian sabotage as retaliation for a recent attack on the Islamic Republic’s Natanz nuclear facility, which was widely attributed to Israel. When asked about the incident, a spokesperson for Tomer denied that an accidental blast had taken place, maintaining that the fire and smoke were caused by a “controlled test,” but refusing to elaborate further. According to Lewis, the blast was in fact the controlled, directed explosion of a solid fuel rocket test. “There is a low rumble during the burn. And it seems to extinguish after a few seconds. At the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, we spend a lot of time looking at missiles. This event looks and sounds much more like the last few seconds of a test of a solid-propellent rocket motor than an explosion,” Lewis wrote in an article on his website. Lewis and his colleagues reviewed satellite images of the area where Israel is known to test rocket motors and found that a large burn scar appeared on the day in question, one similar to those found after solid rocket fuel tests. They then cross referenced the images with the location data from the video, determining that the blast in the footage and the burn scar were in the same place. “So, in the end, it is pretty clear to me that someone in Mishmar David recorded the last few seconds of a solid rocket motor test,” Lewis wrote. The weapons expert questioned why Tomer decided to be cagey in its response instead of acknowledging the nature of the test, especially when it openly produces rocket motors for well-known, non-controversial Israeli missiles, including the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 air defense systems and the Shavit satellite launcher. “Why didn’t Tomer just say it was a solid rocket motor test? The fact that Israel produces large solid rocket motors for, among other systems, the Shavit space launch vehicle is no secret. There isn’t really any reason to be coy, it’s just… a habit. A culture that evolved in a past era and has yet to adapt to the current one,” Lewis said. 印尼潛艇:遇難後總統致以慰問 印尼總統說,該國失踪的潛水艇在巴厘島海被發現下沉,他已向53名船員的家屬表示慰問。 由路透社 2021年4月25日09:52 2021年4月25日,在印尼東爪哇省的班尤萬里,搜尋失踪的KRI Nanggala-402潛艇的過程仍在繼續,在丹戎旺吉港口看到了一艘印尼海軍的船 (照片來源:REUTERS / AJENG DINAR ULFIANA) 廣告 印尼總統約科·維多多周日說,該國失踪的潛水艇在巴厘島海被發現沉沒,他已向53名船員的家屬表示慰問。 他告訴記者:“陸軍和海軍已經將KRI Nanggala 402潛水艇的狀態從失去聯繫變成了“沉沒”或淹死。” “我們所有人印度尼西亞人都對這場悲劇表示深切的哀悼,尤其是對潛艇船員的家屬。” 44歲的KRI Nanggala-402在準備進行魚雷演習時失去了聯繫。 搜索小組週六說,他們在潛艇的最後已知位置附近發現了包括祈禱墊碎片和一瓶潛望鏡潤滑劑在內的物體,從而使海軍認為該船已經破裂。 海軍參謀長尤多·馬戈諾(Yudo Margono)週六表示,聲納掃描已在850米(2,790英尺)的距離南加拉(Nanggala)的潛水範圍之外的地方發現了一個類似潛艇的物體。 十多架直升機和輪船正在尋找失去聯繫的地區,美國,澳大利亞,新加坡,馬來西亞和印度提供了援助。 東爪哇省Banyuwangi鎮的居民告訴路透社,他們對遇難者的家屬表示同情。Banyuwangi所在的海軍基地是進行搜救行動的海軍基地。 28歲的老師海米·羅西達(Umi Rosidah)說:“我希望潛水艇能盡快找到,無論情況如何,而且這些家庭都足夠強大以應對這一情況。” Banyuwangi的其他居民也參加了全國范圍的呼籲,以加快印度尼西亞國防軍的現代化。 29歲的居民海因·費迪·森托索(Hein Ferdy Sentoso)表示:“這可能是政府發展軍事技術的學習點,並且要謹慎使用其(現有)技術,因為這已經危及人們的生命。” 東南亞人口最多的國家曾試圖提高其軍事能力,但一些設備仍然陳舊,近年來發生了致命事故。 在最近的事故之前,印度尼西亞擁有五艘潛艇:兩艘德國製造的209型包括南加拉號和三艘新的韓國船隻。 火箭在巴格達國際機場附近遇襲,無人員傷亡 三枚火箭彈擊中了美軍駐紮在巴格達國際機場的一處地區,儘管沒有人員傷亡的報導。 由路透社 2021年4月23日01:36 美國士兵在巴格達巴斯瑪雅軍事基地的火箭發射器導彈附近行走 (照片來源:REUTERS / MOHAMMED AMEEN) 廣告 伊拉克安全官員說,星期四晚些時候, 至少三枚火箭彈降落在巴格達國際機場的外圍。 官員們說,火箭彈降落在美國軍隊所在的機場附近,沒有造成損失或人員傷亡的報導。 伊拉克軍事聲明說,火箭降落在機場周圍,沒有造成人員傷亡。 聲明說,伊拉克安全部隊發現並放散了更多未發射的火箭,這些火箭放置在空房子的屋頂上,空房子用來發射火箭。 星期四的襲擊發生在4月18日發生類似的火箭襲擊之後,襲擊的地點是伊拉克軍事基地巴拉德,該基地接待了一些美國承包商。這次襲擊使兩名伊拉克士兵受傷。 沒有立即要求承擔責任,但是一些伊拉克官員表示受到伊朗支持的武裝團體過去也曾發生過類似事件。 美國官員指責伊朗支持的民兵對美國在伊拉克的設施,包括在美國駐巴格達大使館附近的設施進行定期火箭彈襲擊。 耶路撒冷升級可能是以色列下一場戰爭的開始-分析 重要的是要了解,這一時間表與2014年緊張局勢如何加劇以及導致加沙和耶路撒冷緊張局勢的其他週期相似。 由SETH J.FRANTZMAN 2021年4月25日18:06 2021年4月23日,以色列警察在東耶路撒冷與阿拉伯人發生衝突 (照片來源:JAMAL AWAD / FLASH90) 廣告 最近發生的一系列事件導致耶路撒冷發生更大的衝突,加沙地帶發射火箭彈,是導致過去沖突的周期的一部分。 最近的耶路撒冷升級事件與正教猶太人遭到襲擊的齋月和TikTok視頻同時發生。逮捕了許多人,但這並沒有緩解緊張局勢。上週四的一次極右翼大規模集會隨後導致了進一步的緊張局勢,包括星期六加沙地帶清晨的火箭彈襲擊。 重要的是要了解,這一事件的時間表與2014年緊張局勢如何加劇以及導致加沙和耶路撒冷緊張局勢的其他暴力週期類似-例如,2017年在耶路撒冷舊城安裝了臨時金屬探測器。 但是,有一個中心差異。 2017年7月的事件和2014年的戰爭始於恐怖襲擊,特別是2017年7月14日,槍手在聖殿山發動恐怖襲擊,2014年6月12日,在西岸綁架和謀殺了三名以色列青少年。 在這兩種情況下,以色列都做出了回應。在2014年的事件中,右翼遊行導致7月2日巴勒斯坦青少年穆罕默德·阿布·赫德米爾(Mohammed Abu Khdeir)被謀殺,導致耶路撒冷發生衝突和騷亂。 哈馬斯的“地獄之門”的評論經常被巴勒斯坦各派使用,而這些評論常常是襲擊事件增加的序幕。聽到了類似的評論:2014年6月30日和2012年11月。 2017年12月,哈馬斯表示,時任總統唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的政府將使館遷至耶路撒冷的決定將打開地獄的大門。2012年發表評論之前,以色列殺害了哈馬斯高級指揮官艾哈邁德·賈巴里(Ahmed al-Jabari)。 現在人們通常不記得它了,但是2017年12月哈馬斯的評論確實導致了緊張局勢的加劇,最終導致加沙地帶發生暴力抗議和騷亂期間在加沙地帶58名巴勒斯坦人喪生,因為美國於2018年5月搬遷了大使館。 2014年的暴力循環最終在加沙發生戰爭:保護邊緣行動。這還導致耶路撒冷的大規模騷亂,破壞了貝特哈尼納輕軌基礎設施的一部分,並導致Kalandiya檢查站發生大規模遊行,造成約287人受傷,兩名巴勒斯坦人喪生。 那我們今天在哪裡?哈馬斯和加沙的巴勒斯坦團體發誓聲援耶路撒冷。 週六早上發射的數十枚火箭(數月來發射最多)是一種升級。火箭彈的燃燒使人想起了2019年的增加,導致從2018年到2019年的兩年內向以色列發射了約2,600枚火箭彈。其中約有1,000枚在2018年被發射。 2019年11月,以色列對一名伊斯蘭聖戰領袖發動了暗殺行動。這升級為進一步的空襲,包括敘利亞在11月20日向俄羅斯透露的一次罷工。 當前的緊張局勢還沒有這樣一個週期,涉及國際影響。但是,美國國務院發表了有關最近衝突和耶路撒冷極右行軍的聲明。在討論新的或續籤的《伊朗協議》以及以色列高級別安全官員計劃前往華盛頓的討論中,美國對此表示擔憂。 這種情況也不同於“刺傷起義”,這是2015年至2016年一波的獨狼暴力事件,導致了無數襲擊和殺害持刀巴勒斯坦人。這是因為當前的衝突尚未涉及巴勒斯坦人的恐怖襲擊。 但這並不意味著正在發生的事情並不嚴重。耶路撒冷與加沙的聯繫以及哈馬斯的要求不僅參與緊張局勢,而且要求巴勒斯坦選舉,這是加劇緊張局勢的先兆。 哈馬斯和巴勒斯坦派別也希望下個月舉行巴勒斯坦選舉,並在東耶路撒冷投票。各派說,如果耶路撒冷的巴勒斯坦人不能投票,就無法舉行選舉。這可能為他們提供藉口,以加劇耶路撒冷的暴力,以此作為取消選舉或試圖迫使以色列伸出援手的方式。 目前尚不清楚這種暴力將採取什麼樣的軌道和形式。上週四數百名極右翼的以色列人高呼反阿拉伯口號,導致人們將目光集中在耶路撒冷上。警察已經嘗試並成功地緩解了緊張局勢。 但是齋月這個月帶來了其他考慮。星期五晚上在Kalandiya檢查站發生的衝突代表了可以傳播的衝突浪潮的類型。在以色列的支持下,該國已經學會瞭如何避免以往衝突中的死亡。 值得考慮的是,當前的衝突也發生在一年之後,全球大流行在很大程度上幫助人們保持了家中的安靜。根據衛生法規,沒有大型遊行,宗教活動或極右翼的集會可以引發更多的緊張局勢。 但是,由於以色列的疫苗接種運動,現在情況並非如此。現在的決定性因素是拉馬拉,加沙和耶路撒冷的議程是否會升溫或減輕緊張局勢。以色列仍然缺乏一個新的聯合政府,這也給極端主義和混亂的火焰帶來了風,因為以色列的政黨似乎也無法達成共識。 Jerusalem escalation could be how Israel's next war starts - analysis It is important to understand that this timeline is similar to how tensions grew in 2014 and other cycles that led to tensions in Gaza and Jerusalem. By SETH J. FRANTZMAN APRIL 25, 2021 18:06 Israeli police officers clash with arabs in East Jerusalem on April 23, 2021 (photo credit: JAMAL AWAD/FLASH90) Advertisement The recent string of events leading to greater clashes in Jerusalem and rocket fire from Gaza is part of the cycle that has led to conflicts in the past. The recent Jerusalem escalation coincided with Ramadan and TikTok videos of Orthodox Jews being attacked. Numerous arrests were made, but that didn’t calm tensions. A massive far-right rally this past Thursday then led to further tensions, including early-Saturday morning rocket fire from the Gaza Strip. It is important to understand that this timeline of events is similar to how tensions grew in 2014 as well as other cycles of violence that led to tensions in Gaza and Jerusalem – for example the 2017 installation of temporary metal detectors in the Old City of Jerusalem. However, there is a central difference. The July 2017 events and the 2014 war began with terror attacks – specifically, a July 14, 2017 terror attack by a gunman on the Temple Mount, and the June 12, 2014 kidnapping and murder of three Israeli teens in the West Bank. In both cases, Israel responded. In the 2014 incident, a right-wing march led to the murder of Palestinian teen Mohammed Abu Khdeir on July 2, resulting in the Jerusalem clashes and riots. The “gates of hell” comments from Hamas, which are rhetoric again being used by Palestinian factions, are often a prelude to rising attacks. Similar comments have been heard: On June 30, 2014, and in November 2012. In December 2017, Hamas said the decision of then-President Donald Trump’s administration to move the embassy to Jerusalem would open the gates of hell. The 2012 comments came after Israel killed Ahmed al-Jabari, a senior Hamas commander. It is not often remembered now, but the Hamas comments of December 2017 did lead to rising tensions that ultimately culminated with the killing of 58 Palestinians in Gaza during violent protests and riots along the border, as the US moved its embassy in May 2018. The 2014 cycle of violence culminated in a war in Gaza: Operation Protective Edge. It also led to widespread rioting in Jerusalem that damaged parts of the infrastructure for the light rail in Beit Hanina and to a massive March on Kalandiya checkpoint that resulted in some 287 injuries and two Palestinians killed. SO WHERE ARE we today? Hamas and Palestinian groups in Gaza have vowed solidarity with Jerusalem. The dozens of rockets fired on Saturday morning – the most fired in months – are an escalation. The rocket fire is reminiscent of the increase in 2019 that led to some 2,600 rockets being fired at Israel in two years from 2018 to 2019. Around 1,000 of those were fired in 2018. In November 2019, Israel launched an assassination airstrike against an Islamic Jihad leader. That escalated to further airstrikes, including a strike in Syria that Russia revealed that November 20. The current tensions are not yet in a cycle like that, involving international repercussions. However, the US State Department has put out a statement about the recent clashes and the far-right march in Jerusalem. America’s concern comes amid discussions about a new or renewed Iran Deal and the planned trip of high-level Israeli security officials to Washington. The situation is also not like the “stabbing intifada,” a wave of lone-wolf violence from 2015-2016 that led to numerous attacks and the killing of knife-wielding Palestinians. This is because the current clashes have not yet involved terror attacks by Palestinians. But this does not mean that what is happening is not serious. The linkage of Jerusalem to Gaza and the demands by Hamas to get involved not only in the tensions, but also the Palestinian elections, are a precursor to more tensions. Hamas and Palestinian factions also want there to be Palestinian elections next month, with voting in east Jerusalem. Elections cannot be held if the Palestinians in Jerusalem can’t vote, the factions say. This could give them an excuse to heat up violence in Jerusalem as a way to cancel the elections or try to force Israel’s hand. It is not yet clear what trajectory and shape this violence will take. The emergence of hundreds of far-right Israelis chanting anti-Arab slogans this past Thursday has led to a laser focus on Jerusalem. The police have tried and succeeded to reduce tensions. But the month of Ramadan brings other considerations. Clashes at Kalandiya checkpoint on Friday evening represent the type of wave of clashes that can spread. In Israel’s favor, the country has learned how to prevent deaths as in past clashes. It is worth considering that the current clashes also come after a year in which the global pandemic mostly helped keep people home and quiet. Under health regulations, there were no large marches, religious events, or far-right rallies that can spark more tensions. That isn’t the case now, however, because of Israel’s vaccination campaign. The determining factor now is whether agendas in Ramallah, Gaza and Jerusalem may heat up or reduce tensions. And Israel still lacks a new coalition government, which also gives wind to the flames of extremism and chaos because Israel’s parties also cannot seem to agree.

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