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2021.04.29 國際新聞導讀-失落十支派黑希伯來人將遭以色列驅逐、沙烏地軟化對伊朗的立場、輝瑞表示治療藥物將於年底出現、中國人口首度下降造成攻擊、伊朗指責以色列支使美國殺死蘇雷曼尼

外交官的國際新聞導覽及中東中亞的歷史故事 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia
2021-04-28
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2021.04.29 國際新聞導讀-失落十支派黑希伯來人將遭以色列驅逐、沙烏地軟化對伊朗的立場、輝瑞表示治療藥物將於年底出現、中國人口首度下降造成攻擊、伊朗指責以色列支使美國殺死蘇雷曼尼 以色列將在兩個月內將100名黑人希伯來人驅逐回美國-報告 他們的社區人數約為5,000,儘管他們在Dimona的融合程度相當好,但他們生活在困境中,因為他們在以色列的前途仍然不確定。 通過GREER FAY卡什曼 2021年4月27日20:43 黑希伯來書2 沒有像普通以色列人這樣的生物。我們之間有太多差異。但是,可以肯定地說,隨便的以色列人不是種族主義者。儘管有國家法律,非猶太人和有色人種也不應該坐在公共汽車的後部,大多數同胞也不會將他們視為劣等人。除非人們的任何一個部門的一個或多個熱頭做某事會引起另一部門的暴力反應,否則這將是一個生死攸關的局面。 不幸的是,根據耶迪亞特·阿哈羅諾特(Yediot Aharonot)的一份報告,在接下來的兩個月內,將有約100名黑希伯來人(其中大多數是在以色列出生,並且不知道其他環境)被驅逐回美國。 認為自己是以色列失落部落的後裔的黑希伯來人起源於芝加哥,在已故的本·卡特(又名本·阿米·本·以色列)的領導下,於1960年代後期來到以色列,而且部分定居在迪莫納。他們已經嘗試了半個世紀,但收效甚微,以取得以色列國籍。有些人曾在軍隊中服役,但大多數人被拒絕了,因為他們不是以色列公民。 他們的社區人數約為5,000,儘管他們在Dimona的融合程度相當好,但他們生活在困境中,因為他們在以色列的前途仍然不確定。他們的永久居民身份可以隨時撤銷。 在KAN Reshet Bet的一次採訪中,一名在以色列出生,其子女在以色列出生的黑人希伯來人社區的44歲成員說,他一直擔心被驅逐出境,因為他的所有要求因為公民身份被拒絕了。另一個講到一個有9個孩子的母親,其中一些人出生在以色列,被驅逐出境。她在以色列生活了大約30年,在離開美國之前賣掉了她所有的資產。只要阿里·德里(Arye Deri)繼續擔任內政部長,強硬政策就將繼續下去,而伊萊·伊沙伊(Eli Yishai)擔任同一職務時也是如此。 內政部的一名高級僱員告訴Reshet Bet,無意驅逐整個社區,只有那些非法居住在以色列並且沒有獲得公民身份或永久居留權的成員。當被問及如何趕上這些人花了20或30年時,該員工回答:“我們不能在每一個新來的人身上都安裝GPS。” 他一直堅持將那些被驅逐出境的人定為非法,說他們有路可走,因為他們都是美國公民。這些美國公民中的一些人出生在以色列,不知道其他生活,這一事實並沒有給他留下任何印象。 Israel to deport 100 Black Hebrews to the US within 2 months - report Their community numbers around 5,000, and while they have integrated reasonably well in Dimona, they live in limbo because their future in Israel remains uncertain. By GREER FAY CASHMAN APRIL 27, 2021 20:43 black hebrews 2 (photo credit: LIRON SHIMONI) Advertisement There is no such creature as an average Israeli. There are just too many differences between us. However, it would be reasonably safe to say that the random Israeli is not a racist. Nation-State Law notwithstanding, non-Jews and people of color are not made to sit at the back of the bus, nor are they treated as inferiors by most of their fellow human beings. It’s very much a live and let live situation, unless one or more hotheads from any sector of the population do something that will provoke a violent response from another sector. Unfortunately, according to a report in Yediot Aharonot, some 100 members of the Black Hebrews, most of them born in Israel, and knowing no other environment, are to be deported to the United States within the next two months. The Black Hebrews, who believe themselves to be descendants of the Lost Tribes of Israel, originated in Chicago under the leadership of the late Ben Carter, also known as Ben Ammi Ben-Israel, came to Israel in the late 1960s, and for the most part settled in Dimona. They have been trying for half a century, with only minimal success, to acquire Israeli citizenship. Some have served in the army, but most have been rejected because they are not citizens of Israel. Their community numbers around 5,000, and while they have integrated reasonably well in Dimona, they live in limbo because their future in Israel remains uncertain. Their permanent resident status can be revoked at any time. A 44-year-old member of the Black Hebrew community, who was born in Israel, and whose children were born in Israel, in an interview on KAN Reshet Bet, said that he was in constant fear of being deported, because all his requests for citizenship had been denied. Another spoke of a mother of nine children, some of whom were born in Israel, who is being deported. She has lived in Israel for around 30 years, and before leaving America, sold all her assets. The hard-line policy will continue for as long as Arye Deri remains interior minister, and was no different when Eli Yishai occupied the same position. A senior employee of the Interior Ministry told Reshet Bet that there was no intention of expelling the whole community, only those of its members who are living in Israel illegally and have not been accorded citizenship or permanent residence. When asked how come it has taken 20 or 30 years to catch up with such people, the employee replied: “We can’t put a GPS on every new arrival.” He kept insisting on the illegality of those being deported, saying that they have where to go because they are all American citizens. The fact that some of these American citizens were born in Israel, and knew no other life, made no impression on him. 死亡人數超過20萬人,印度人急於購買COVID-19疫苗 冠狀病毒患者-許多人為呼吸而掙扎-湧向城市郊區的錫克教寺廟,希望在那裡獲得一些有限的氧氣供應。 由路透社 2021年4月28日17:13 2021年4月28日,醫護人員和親戚將死于冠狀病毒病(COVID-19)的人的屍體埋葬在印度新德里的墓地中 (照片來源:DANISH SIDDIQUI /路透社) 廣告 印度週三的COVID-19死亡人數激增至20萬,原因是氧氣,醫療用品和醫院人員的短缺加劇了該病毒新病例的創紀錄數量。 在過去的一周中,印度第二波COVID-19感染浪潮每天有至少30萬人呈陽性反應,醫療設施和火葬場不堪重負,國際社會對此日趨緊迫。 在過去的24小時內,記錄了360,960例新病例,是世界上最大的單日總數,使印度的總數達到近1800萬。迄今為止,最死亡的一天還有3,293人死亡,死亡人數達到201,187。 專家認為,官方統計數字大大低估了該國13億的實際損失。 在首都新德里,救護車排成幾個小時,將COVID-19受害者運送到公園和停車場的臨時火葬場設施中,屍體在成排的pyr葬柴堆上燃燒。 冠狀病毒患者-許多人為呼吸而掙扎-湧向城市郊區的錫克教寺廟,希望在那裡獲得一些有限的氧氣供應。 警方說,週三凌晨,孟買郊區的一家醫院發生火災,炸死了四人,多人受傷。 對於這個缺乏床和氧氣供應的國家來說,醫院的事故引起了人們的極大關注。上週,一家醫院在治療COVID-19病人時起火,另一家醫院的氧氣瓶洩漏導致22人死亡。 救生用氧氣和設備的供應已經開始到達新德里,包括來自英國的呼吸機和製氧機,更多的是從愛爾蘭,德國和澳大利亞派出的。 幾個國家/地區已暫停從印度起飛的航班,並採取了措施,以阻止這種病毒的更強毒變種。美國總統拜登說,他已經與印度總理納倫德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)進行了詳細的交談,其中包括美國何時能夠向該國運送疫苗,並表示,他明確打算這樣做。 他在白宮對記者說:“我認為我們將能夠與其他真正有需要的國家共享,共享疫苗以及專門知識。這是希望和期望。” 美國國務院全球COVID-19響應協調員蓋爾·史密斯(Gayle Smith)警告說,印度面臨的挑戰將需要持續的努力:“我們都需要了解,我們仍處於這一階段的前端。這還沒有達到頂峰。” Indians rush for COVID-19 vaccines as death toll passes 200,000 Coronavirus sufferers - many struggling for breath - flocked to a Sikh temple on the outskirts of the city, hoping to secure some of the limited supplies of oxygen available there. By REUTERS APRIL 28, 2021 17:13 Healthcare workers and relatives carry the body of a person, who died from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), for his burial at a graveyard in New Delhi, India, April 28, 2021 (photo credit: DANISH SIDDIQUI/ REUTERS) Advertisement India's COVID-19 death toll surged past 200,000 on Wednesday as shortages of oxygen, medical supplies and hospital staff compounded a record number of new cases of the virus. India's second wave of COVID-19 infections has seen at least 300,000 people a day test positive for the past week, overwhelming healthcare facilities and crematoriums and driving an increasingly urgent international response. In the past 24 hours, 360,960 new cases were recorded, the largest single-day total in the world, taking India's total to nearly 18 million. A further 3,293 deaths, the deadliest day so far, took the death toll to 201,187. Experts believe the official tally vastly under-estimates the actual toll in the country of 1.3 billion. In the capital, New Delhi, ambulances lined up for hours to take COVID-19 victims to makeshift crematorium facilities in parks and parking lots, where bodies burned on rows of funeral pyres. Coronavirus sufferers - many struggling for breath - flocked to a Sikh temple on the outskirts of the city, hoping to secure some of the limited supplies of oxygen available there. Police said a fire early on Wednesday at a hospital on the outskirts of Mumbai killed four people and injured several more. Accidents at hospitals have been of grave concern for the country which is running short of beds and oxygen supplies. Last week a fire broke out at a hospital treating COVID-19 patients and a leaking oxygen tank at another hospital led to the deaths of 22 people. Supplies of life-saving oxygen and equipment have begun arriving in New Delhi, including ventilators and oxygen concentrators from Britain, with more dispatched from Ireland, Germany and Australia. Several countries have suspended flights from India, taking steps to keep out more virulent variants of the virus. US President Joe Biden said he had spoken at length with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, including as to when the United States would be able to ship vaccines to the country, and said it was his clear intention to do so. "I think we'll be in a position to be able to share, share vaccines as well as know-how with other countries who are in real need. That's the hope and expectation," he told reporters at the White House on Tuesday. The US State Department's coordinator for global COVID-19 response, Gayle Smith, warned India's challenge will require a sustained effort: "We all need to understand that we are still at the front end of this. This hasn't peaked yet." 中國將報告五十年來首次人口下降 人口減少將給北京施加壓力,要求其採取措施鼓勵夫婦生育更多的孩子,並避免不可逆轉的下降。 由路透社 2021年4月28日09:02 表演者走過天安門廣場,在花車旁展示已故中國主席毛澤東。在閱兵式紀念中華人民共和國成立70週年的國慶日,中國北京,2019年10月1日 (照片來源:REUTERS / JASON LEE) 據《金融時報》援引知情人士的話說,中國準備在十年一次的人口普查後報告其人口在五十年來的首次下降。 人口減少將給北京施加壓力,要求其採取措施鼓勵夫婦生育更多的孩子,並避免不可逆轉的下降。 國家統計局(NBS)將於4月初發布去年年底進行的普查結果,但並未立即回應路透社的置評請求。 英國《金融時報》週二援引其消息來源稱,人口數字非常敏感,只有在政府部門就數據及其含義達成共識後才能公佈。 Pinpoint資產管理公司深圳首席經濟學家張志偉說:“如果中國確認這種下降,那將是一個大問題。” “根據聯合國的預測,市場普遍預期中國的人口將在2027年達到頂峰。這將比市場和政策制定者的預期要早得多。” 儘管該局本月表示還需要做更多的準備工作,但沒有對推遲宣布結果的原因做出任何解釋。 近幾個月來,中國的官方媒體越來越黯淡,稱未來幾年人口可能開始減少。 2016年,中國取消了長達數十年的一胎化政策,希望增加嬰兒數量,以二胎化政策取代這一措施。 當時,它還設定了一個目標,到2020年將其人口從2010年的13.4億增加到約14.2億。 但是出生率持續下降。 部分原因是,儘管父母有生育壓力,但城市夫婦,尤其是1990年以後出生的夫婦,對自己的獨立性和職業的重視程度遠勝於撫養家庭。 在人口眾多導致大量嬰兒出生的主要城市,生活成本的上漲也嚇阻了夫妻。 張說:“中國可能必須完全放鬆節育政策,推遲退休年齡。” 出生率的下降和社會的快速變灰將給勞動年齡人口增加壓力,並影響生產力。 《資本經濟學》在周三的一份報告中寫道:“我們使用普查前的數據進行的預測已經表明,到2030年,勞動力將以每年0.5%的速度下降,對GDP的影響也將與此類似。” “增長放緩將使美國在經濟上陷入困境。這也可能對中國的全球地位產生無形的影響。” China to report first population drop in five decades A population drop will add pressure on Beijing to roll out measures to encourage couples to have more children and avert an irreversible decline. By REUTERS APRIL 28, 2021 09:02 Performers travel past Tiananmen Square next to a float showing late Chinese chairman Mao Zedong during the parade marking the 70th founding anniversary of People's Republic of China, on its National Day in Beijing, China October 1, 2019 (photo credit: REUTERS/JASON LEE) China is poised to report its first population decline in five decades following a once-in-a-decade census, the Financial Times newspaper said, citing sources familiar with the matter. A population drop will add pressure on Beijing to roll out measures to encourage couples to have more children and avert an irreversible decline. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which is due to release in early April the results of the census conducted late last year, did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. The population figure is very sensitive and will not be published until government departments have a consensus on the data and its implications, the Financial Times added on Tuesday, citing its sources. "If China confirms such a decline, it would be a big deal," said Zhiwei Zhang, the Shenzhen-based chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. "The consensus expects China's population to peak at 2027, based on the projection made by the United Nations. This would be much earlier than the market and policy makers expected." No explanation has been given for the delay in announcing the result, though the bureau said this month that more preparatory work was needed. In recent months, China's state media have been increasingly bleak, saying the population may start to shrink in the next few years. In 2016, China scrapped a decades-long one-child policy in the hope of boosting the number of babies, replacing the measure with a two-child policy. At the time, it also set a target to boost its population to about 1.42 billion by 2020, from 1.34 billion in 2010. But the birth rate has continued to decline. That is partly because urban couples, particularly those born after 1990, value their independence and careers more than raising a family, despite parental pressure to have children. Rising living costs in major cities, where large populations lead to the birth of a huge number of babies, have also deterred couples. "China would likely have to relax the birth control policy completely and put off the retirement age faster," Zhang said. Falling birth rates and a fast greying society will add pressure on the working-age population and hit productivity. "Our projections using the pre-census figures already suggested that the workforce would be declining by 0.5% each year by 2030, with a similar impact on GDP," Capital Economics wrote in a note on Wednesday. "Slower growth would make catching the United States economically harder. And there may be an intangible impact on China's global standing too." 沙特王儲在平衡法案中軟化了伊朗的言論 該評論與穆罕默德親王成為王儲後於2017年發表的講話形成鮮明對比,他在講話中稱伊朗最高領導人為“新的中東希特勒”。 由路透社 2021年4月28日17:44 沙特王儲穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)主持了沙特巴林協調委員會的第一個季度,幾乎與巴林總理和沙特阿拉伯利雅得王儲薩勒曼·本·哈馬德·哈利法王儲一起 (照片來源:班達·阿爾加盧/沙特皇家法院/路透社) 廣告 迪拜-沙特阿拉伯王儲對伊朗採取了更加和解的態度,試圖在長期以來的敵對情緒與經濟考慮之間取得平衡,並就如何解決德黑蘭的區域行為與華盛頓之間架起橋樑。 利雅得與德黑蘭之間的緊張局勢因也門戰爭而惡化,在伊朗,與伊朗結盟的集團對沙特阿拉伯的攻擊也有所增加,儘管沙特阿拉伯試圖吸引外國投資。在2019年襲擊利雅得歸咎於伊朗的沙特石油廠之後,這兩個海灣強國之間的緊張局勢也有所增加,德黑蘭否認了這一指控。 薩哈曼王儲穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)在重申利雅得與伊朗的“負面行為”有關的問題時說,遜尼派穆斯林沙特阿拉伯希望與什葉派伊朗建立良好關係。 “我們不希望伊朗陷入困境,相反,我們希望伊朗繁榮昌​​盛。我們對伊朗有利益,他們對沙特王國也有利益,以推動該地區和世界增長與繁榮。”他說。 與此形成鮮明對比的是,穆罕默德親王在成為王儲後於2017年發表講話,稱伊朗最高領導人為“新的中東希特勒” 。同年早些時候,他說,任何主要競爭對手之間的影響力爭奪都應採取放置在“伊朗境內,而不在沙特阿拉伯”。 外交官說,隨著美國總統拜登政府對沙特阿拉伯的人權記錄採取更強硬的立場並敦促其結束也門戰爭,這位王子已採取行動表明他是能夠幫助穩定該地區的寶貴夥伴。 沙特和伊朗官員在切斷外交關係六年後,於本月舉行了直接會談,內容涉及也門以及2015年全球大國與伊朗之間的核協議。利雅得反對該協議,不解決德黑蘭的導彈計劃和區域代理問題。 牛津大學彭布羅克學院阿拉伯和伊斯蘭研究高級研究員伊麗莎白·肯德爾說:“沙特阿拉伯迫切需要找到一條既不受歡迎又無法贏得戰爭的出路。” 沙特阿拉伯敦促全球大國在維也納的會談中,試圖使美國和伊朗重新完全遵守該核協議,以達成更長久的更強有力的協議。 倫敦政治經濟學院中東中心的客座教授馬達維·拉希德(Madawi Al-Rasheed)說,給拜登留下深刻印像是穆罕默德親王“改變了他對伊朗的對抗言論”的原因之一。 王子曾發誓要在2015年利雅得(Riyadh)在軍事聯盟的領導下對也門進行干預時粉碎胡希特(Houthis),但他對針對伊朗發動導彈和無人機襲擊該國的伊朗同盟運動的言論也變得柔和。 他說:“毫無疑問,胡塞人與伊朗政權有著密切的聯繫,但他們是也門人,具有阿拉伯的本能。”他敦促該組織接受停火協議。 Saudi crown prince softens Iran rhetoric in balancing act The comment contrasts with remarks made by Prince Mohammed in 2017, after becoming crown prince, in which he called the supreme leader of Iran "the new Hitler of the Middle East." By REUTERS APRIL 28, 2021 17:44 Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman chairs first season of the Saudi-Bahraini Coordination Council, virtually with Bahrain's Prime Minister and Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (photo credit: BANDAR ALGALOUD / SAUDI ROYAL COURT / REUTERS) DUBAI - Saudi Arabia's crown prince has taken a more conciliatory public stance towards Iran, trying to balance long-held animosity with economic considerations and bridge differences with Washington over how to tackle Tehran's regional behavior. Tensions between Riyadh and Tehran have festered over the Yemen war, where an Iran-aligned group has increased attacks on Saudi Arabia even as the kingdom tried to lure foreign investment. Strains between the two Gulf powerhouses also grew after a 2019 assault on Saudi oil plants that Riyadh blamed on Iran, a charge Tehran denies. While reiterating that Riyadh has a problem with Iran's "negative behavior," Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in an interview aired late on Tuesday that Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia wanted a good relationship with Shi'ite Iran. "We do not want for Iran to be in a difficult situation, on the contrary we want Iran to prosper and grow. We have interests in Iran and they have interests in the Kingdom to propel the region and the world to growth and prosperity," he said. That contrasts with remarks by Prince Mohammed in 2017, after becoming crown prince, in which he called the supreme leader of Iran "the new Hitler of the Middle East." Earlier that year he said any contest for influence between the arch-rivals ought take place "inside Iran, not in Saudi Arabia." With U.S. President Joe Biden's administration taking a tougher stance on Saudi Arabia's human rights record and pressing it to end the Yemen war, the prince has moved to show he is a valuable partner able to help stabilize the region, diplomats have said. Saudi and Iranian officials held direct talks this month, six years after cutting diplomatic ties, about Yemen and the 2015 nuclear accord between global powers and Iran, which Riyadh opposed for not tackling Tehran's missile program and regional proxies. "Saudi Arabia desperately needs to find a way out of a (Yemen) war that is both unpopular and unwinnable," said Elisabeth Kendall, senior research fellow in Arabic and Islamic Studies at Oxford's Pembroke College. The kingdom has urged global powers trying to bring both the United States and Iran back into full compliance with the nuclear pact to reach a stronger agreement of longer duration, in talks in Vienna. Madawi Al-Rasheed, visiting professor at the LSE Middle East Centre, said impressing Biden was one reason why Prince Mohammed "changed his confrontational discourse" on Iran. The prince, who vowed to crush the Houthis when Riyadh intervened in Yemen in 2015 at the head of a military coalition, also softened his rhetoric towards the Iran-aligned movement that has launched missile and drone attacks on the kingdom. "There is no doubt the Houthis have strong ties with the Iranian regime, but they are Yemenis with Arab instincts," he said, urging the group to accept a ceasefire deal. 人權觀察確實希望將以色列和巴勒斯坦權力機構推向一個國家 新的關於以色列的人權報導的核心內容是,試圖將由三個不同機構管理的幾個不同地區合併為一個地方。 由SETH J.FRANTZMAN 2021年4月28日21:19 美洲人權觀察組織主任Jose Miguel Vivanco在對波哥大媒體發表講話時提供了一份報告 (照片來源:路透社) 廣告 有報導指責以色列重返種族隔離制度,並希望將以色列,加沙地帶和西岸重新定義為一個國家,這是對以色列抨擊“種族隔離”的報導。試圖將由三個不同機構管理的幾個不同地區合併為一個地方,這是有關以色列的新人權報告的核心。 這似乎是拜登新政府於1月上任的時機。向以色列傳達的信息也很明確:即使猶太國家像從加沙地帶那樣從西岸撤出,這些團體仍將其定義為“種族隔離”。該目標似乎無法使以色列擺脫這一新定義,這使人們質疑真正的目標是否是試圖迫使其接管加沙並在未經其同意的情況下控制數百萬人。 本週發表的新的《人權觀察》報告說,該報告審查了以色列對巴勒斯坦人的待遇。“它呈現了一個單一政府的現實,即以色列政府主要統治約旦河和地中海之間的地區,該地區由兩個規模大致相等的群體組成,並在方法上使猶太以色列人享有特權,同時壓制巴勒斯坦人,大多數嚴重地在被佔領土上。” 重要的是要注意,此處的定義是基於將以色列定義為包括“加沙地帶和西岸”的“單一權威”。它確實指出,哈馬斯統治著加沙地帶,但仍然以某種方式維持著“單一權威”的虛構。 1月,B'Tselem小組也發布了一份報告,聲稱“這是種族隔離”。該報告聲稱,“從約旦河到地中海都有猶太人的至高無上政權。” 它使用的語言與《人權觀察》報告中的語言相似。 貝塞萊姆聲稱:“有超過一千四百萬人生活在一個單一的規則之下,約旦河和地中海之間生活著約一千四百萬的猶太人和另一半的巴勒斯坦人。” “事實是,地中海和約旦河之間的整個地區都是按照一個單一的原則來組織的:推進並鞏固一個群體-猶太人-高於另一個群體-巴勒斯坦人的至高無上的地位。 它寫道:“所有這些得出的結論是,這不是兩個平行的製度,它們只是碰巧堅持了相同的原則。” “有一個政權根據單一組織原則來統治整個地區和其中的人民。” 看來,這兩個報告是與這一新主題聯繫在一起的,新主題旨在使以色列不僅控制自治的巴勒斯坦權力機構,而且控制哈馬斯經營的加沙地帶。不清楚的是,為什麼在巴勒斯坦人進行自己的事務,控制自己的城市並與以色列更加分離之後的幾十年中,這種報導試圖使這些地區重新陷入以色列的控制之下。 它可能與美國再次支持“一國解決方案”的論點聯繫在一起。請注意,HRW報告中的語言為“單一權限”,而在B'Tselem的語言中為“單一規則”。兩者均出現“在地中海和約旦河之間”。 將該地區描述為一個單一實體的術語似乎與“從河流到大海”這一術語相吻合。該口號被包括哈馬斯在內的巴勒斯坦民族主義者所採用。 在最近幾十年中,以色列關於控制和對待巴勒斯坦人的人權記錄已大大改善。以色列軍隊與巴勒斯坦人之間的衝突很少導致平民喪生,這與第一起義和第二起義期間的事件發生方式有重大變化。 在巴勒斯坦權力機構的學校和哈馬斯統治下,整個巴勒斯坦一代已經長大。巴勒斯坦人最初根據《奧斯陸協定》在新的權力機構管理自己的事務時出生的人現在已經25歲了。哈馬斯掌權後出生在加沙的某人即將高中畢業。然而,提出了“單一”權威的虛構作為種族隔離的證據。 傳達的信息似乎是,無論巴勒斯坦人擁有多少權力,即使在一個國家中,也永遠不會有人允許以色列從加沙或西岸解脫出來。這是因為“控制”的定義概念現在包括控制加沙三個邊界中的兩個邊界。這樣小的控制水平仍然足以證明加沙是以色列的“一部分”。 在這種邏輯下,即使以色列希望建立一個功能全面的巴勒斯坦國,也仍然可以說“控制”了它。即使確實存在,以色列仍然會“佔領”耶路撒冷,就像被指控“佔領”黎巴嫩的沙巴農場,從而為真主黨的“抵抗”辯護一樣。 目前尚不清楚,儘管如今以色列與這些地區之間存在著巨大的隔,,遠不止過去,“一國”的概念為何又回來了。美國新政府看來是時候了,它的目的是建立一個自我實現的預言,通過該預言,以色列將被告知,即使它不控制加沙和拉馬拉,也將被定義為控制他們。 以色列尋求分離的越多,就會被告知必須將巴勒斯坦地區重新納入其自身。這可能是由於兩國概念使以色列能夠以猶太人佔多數的狀態存在。防止這種情況的唯一方法是繼續聲稱加沙的數百萬人是以色列的一部分,以製造以色列人口為巴勒斯坦一半的小說。 歸根結底,巴勒斯坦領導人不想放棄自己的自治權並成為以色列的一部分,加沙的哈馬斯也不想放棄。這些區域都試圖成為一個國家的一部分的錯覺被用來將區域表示為單個實體。 在這些新的人權報告中,以色列絕對不可能控制“單一實體”。儘管各種協議,聯合國計劃和決議都表明它們不是同一實體,而是被定義為兩個州,一個自治區或“被佔領”領土,但新報告尋求的是一國分析。 這個定義可能旨在使以色列合法化-因為迫使猶太國家奪回所有這些地區,並因此認為它必須向加沙和西岸的數以百萬計的巴勒斯坦人授予公民身份,不可避免地為通向所謂的“雙國籍”創造了一條道路。以色列將不再佔多數的國家。 親民族主義的爭論已經提出了很多年,而沒有任何證據表明絕大多數人都希望這個未來。如果“單一”地區的一半人希望獲得一個國家,一個國家的最終結果,那將更有意義。他們沒有這樣做,他們已經生活了數十年,而且以色列已經改善了其在“單個”地區的人權記錄,這表明倡導進行這種分析是一項議程。 這種新的推動力是否會在西方國家中流行尚有待觀察,而這正是本次談話的自然目標。世界上大部分地區對以巴衝突的興趣較小,而且許多國家已經承認一個巴勒斯坦國,而不是承認巴勒斯坦國是以色列的一部分,這一事實似乎否定了“通往海洋的河流”的分析。 這些報告的目的可能是為了避免巴勒斯坦人和以色列人越來越分散的事實,並防止一個巴勒斯坦國變得更加自治。雖然不清楚巴勒斯坦人是否支持這個想法,但以色列顯然不是。 Human Rights Watch really wants to push Israel and PA into one state This attempt to shoehorn several different areas, run by three different authorities into one place is at the heart of new human rights reports about Israel. By SETH J. FRANTZMAN APRIL 28, 2021 21:19 Jose Miguel Vivanco, director of Human Rights Watch Americas, holds up a report while addressing the media in Bogota (photo credit: REUTERS) Advertisement Reports slamming Israel for “apartheid” have been driven by a desire to reset the definition of apartheid and redefine Israel, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank as one state. This attempt to shoehorn several different areas, run by three different authorities, into one place is at the heart of new human rights report about Israel. This appears timed for the new Biden administration, which came into office in January. The message to Israel is also clear: Even if the Jewish state withdraws from the West Bank, as it did from Gaza, it will still be defined as “apartheid” by these groups. The goal appears to provide no way for Israel to extricate itself from this new definition, which calls into question whether the real goal is to try to force it to assume control of Gaza and rule over millions of people without their consent. The new Human Rights Watch report, released this week, says that it examines Israel’s treatment of Palestinians. “It presents the present-day reality of a single authority, the Israeli government, ruling primarily over the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, populated by two groups of roughly equal size, and methodologically privileging Jewish Israelis while repressing Palestinians, most severely in the occupied territory.” It is important to note that the definition here is predicated on defining Israel as including the Gaza Strip and West Bank – as a “single authority.” It does note that Hamas runs the Gaza Strip but somehow still maintains the fiction of a “single authority.” IN JANUARY, the group B’Tselem also released a report claiming “this is apartheid.” That report claimed that there is “a regime of Jewish supremacy from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea.” It uses language similar to that in the Human Rights Watch report. “More than 14 million people, roughly half of them Jews and the other half Palestinians, live between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea under a single rule,” B’Tselem claimed. “The fact [is] that the entire area between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River is organized under a single principle: advancing and cementing the supremacy of one group – Jews – over another – Palestinians. “All this leads to the conclusion that these are not two parallel regimes that simply happen to uphold the same principle,” it reads. “There is one regime governing the entire area and the people living in it, based on a single organizing principle.” It appears the two reports are linked by this new theme, which seeks to present Israel as controlling not only the autonomous Palestinian Authority but also Hamas-run Gaza. It is unclear why, after decades in which the Palestinians ran their own affairs, controlled their own cities and became more separate from Israel, such reports seek to shoehorn these areas back into Israeli control. It may be linked to arguments in the US that once again support a “one-state solution.” Note that the language in the HRW report says “single authority” and in B’Tselem’s says “single rule.” The term “between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River” appears in both. The terminology that portrays this area as one single entity appears to dovetail with the term “from the river to the sea.” This slogan was adopted by Palestinian nationalists, including Hamas. ISRAEL’S HUMAN rights record regarding control over and treatment of the Palestinians has largely improved in recent decades. Clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinians rarely result in the death of civilians, a major change from how events unfolded during the First and Second Intifadas. An entire Palestinian generation has grown up under PA schools and under Hamas rule. Someone born when the Palestinians first began to administer their own affairs in a new authority under the Oslo Accords is now 25 years old. Someone born in Gaza when Hamas seized power will soon be graduating high school. Yet the fiction of a “single” authority is presented as evidence of apartheid. The message appears to be that no matter how much authority Palestinians have, even in a state, Israel will never be permitted by some to extricate itself from Gaza or the West Bank. This is because the definitional concept of “control” now includes controlling two out of Gaza’s three borders. Such a minor level of control is still enough to argue that Gaza is “part” of Israel. Under such logic, even if Israel wanted there to be a fully functioning Palestinian state, it would still be said to “control” it. Even if it did come into existence, Israel would still “occupy” Jerusalem, much as it is accused of “occupying” the Shaba Farms in Lebanon and thus justifying the Hezbollah “resistance.” It’s unclear why the “one-state” concept has returned despite the vast separation that exists today between Israel and these areas, far more than in the past. It appears timed for the new US administration and designed to set up a self-fulfilling prophecy whereby Israel will be told that even if it doesn’t control Gaza and Ramallah, it will be defined as controlling them. The more Israel seeks to separate, the more it will be told it must reincorporate Palestinian areas into itself. This may be due to the fact that the two-state concept enabled Israel to exist as a state with a Jewish majority. The only way to prevent that is to continue to claim that millions of people in Gaza are part of Israel, so as to create the fiction of Israel having a population that is half-Palestinian. AT THE end of the day, the Palestinian leadership doesn’t want to surrender its autonomy and become part of Israel, and neither does Hamas in Gaza. The illusion that these areas are all seeking to be part of one state is used to present the area as a single entity. There is no way, presented within these new human rights reports, for Israel to ever not control the “single entity.” Despite the fact that various accords and UN plans and resolutions have indicated that these are not the same entity – but, rather, are defined as two states, an autonomous region, or “occupied” territory – the new reports seek a one-state analysis. This definition may be designed to delegitimize Israel – because forcing the Jewish state to retake all these areas, and thus arguing it must grant citizenship to millions of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, inevitably creates a road to a so-called “binational” state which would no longer have an Israeli majority. Pro-binational arguments have been advanced for years without any evidence that the vast majority of people want this future. It would make more sense if half the people in the “single” area wanted a binational, one-state end result. That they do not and that they have lived apart for decades, and that Israel has improved its human rights record across the “single” area, indicates that advocating for this analysis has an agenda. It remains to be seen if this new push will catch on among Western countries, which are the natural targets of this talking point. The fact that large parts of the world have less interest in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and many states already recognize a Palestinian state, as opposed to recognizing the Palestinian state as part of Israel, would appear to negate the “river to the sea” analysis. The reports may have been designed to preempt the fact that Palestinians and Israelis are growing apart and to prevent a Palestinian state from becoming more autonomous. While it not clear whether the Palestinians are on board with this idea, Israel is clearly not.

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