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2021.05.31 國際新聞導讀-衣索比亞出現反美國埃及蘇丹之示威、以色列團結政府即將出現、親伊朗支武裝民兵在伊拉克攻擊美軍、土耳其在中東干預頗深、那唐亞胡下台後之以色列未來情勢

外交官的國際新聞導覽及中東中亞的歷史故事 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia
2021-05-30
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2021.05.31 國際新聞導讀-衣索比亞出現反美國埃及蘇丹之示威、以色列團結政府即將出現、親伊朗支武裝民兵在伊拉克攻擊美軍、土耳其在中東干預頗深、那唐亞胡下台後之以色列未來情勢 埃塞俄比亞人在親政府集會上批評美國 超過10,000人參加了集會,其中一些人舉著用英語、阿拉伯語和阿姆哈拉語寫成的橫幅。 通過路透 2021 年 5 月 30 日 12:28 2020 年 11 月 14 日,一名逃離提格雷地區持續戰鬥的埃塞俄比亞人在蘇丹卡薩拉州東部蘇丹-埃塞俄比亞邊境的 Hamdait 村準備一頓飯。REUTERS/El Tayeb Siddig (圖片來源:路透社/EL TAYEB SIDDIG) 廣告 埃塞俄比亞親政府示威者周日譴責美國,限制當局對提格里衝突提供援助,在當局組織的一次大規模集會上表示支持他們的立場。 超過10,000人參加了集會,其中一些人舉著用英語、阿拉伯語和阿姆哈拉語寫成的橫幅。口號包括:“美國向我們展示你的中立”、“埃塞俄比亞不需要看守人”和“填滿大壩”,這是對埃及和蘇丹反對的尼羅河大壩的提及。 這次示威比典型的親政府集會規模更大,對美國的公開批評也很少見。 埃塞俄比亞因提格雷衝突正面臨越來越大的國際壓力,去年它和鄰國厄立特里亞在那裡派遣軍隊推翻地區當局。 一周前,美國因衝突而限制向埃塞俄比亞提供經濟和安全援助。華盛頓還表示,它將禁止其認為應對危機負責的現任或前任埃塞俄比亞或厄立特里亞官員。 40億美元的埃塞俄比亞復興大壩的填築也引發了國際爭端。埃塞俄比亞說大壩的電力是發展其經濟所必需的;蘇丹和埃及稱這侵犯了他們在尼羅河下游的權利。 亞的斯亞貝巴市市長阿達內克·阿貝貝在青年部組織的集會上說:“我們永遠不會跪下。美國及其盟國的先決條件和旅行限制是完全不可接受的。需要糾正。” Nejash Sheba 是一名 23 歲的亞的斯亞貝巴商人,也是總理阿比·艾哈邁德的繁榮黨成員,他告訴路透社,當地官員告訴他要組織他所在地區的人,並帶了 100 人參加集會。 “我來這裡是為了表達我對繁榮黨的支持,並譴責美國對埃塞俄比亞施加的限制 Ethiopians criticize United States at pro-government rally More than 10,000 people attended the rally, some carrying banners written in English, Arabic and Amharic. By REUTERS MAY 30, 2021 12:28 An Ethiopian who fled the ongoing fighting in Tigray region, prepares a meal in Hamdait village on the Sudan-Ethiopia border in eastern Kassala state, Sudan November 14, 2020. REUTERS/El Tayeb Siddig (photo credit: REUTERS/EL TAYEB SIDDIG) Ethiopian pro-government demonstrators denounced the United States on Sunday for imposing restrictions on aid over the Tigray conflict, at a massive rally organized by the authorities to show support for their positions. More than 10,000 people attended the rally, some carrying banners written in English, Arabic and Amharic. Slogans included: "USA show us your neutrality," "Ethiopia doesn't need a caretaker," and "Fill the dam," a reference to a huge Nile dam opposed by Egypt and Sudan. The demonstration was larger than typical pro-government rallies, and the public criticism of the United States was rare. Ethiopia is facing increasing international pressure over the conflict in Tigray, where it and neighboring Eritrea sent troops last year to oust the regional authorities. A week ago, the United States imposed restrictions on economic and security assistance to Ethiopia over the conflict. Washington also said it would bar current or former Ethiopian or Eritrean officials it deems responsible for the crisis. The filling of the $4 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has also sparked international disputes. Ethiopia says the dam's electricity is needed to develop its economy; Sudan and Egypt say it violates their rights to Nile waters down river. "We will never kneel down. The preconditions and travel restrictions by the US and its allies are completely unacceptable. It needs to be corrected," Adanech Abebe, mayor of Addis Ababa, told the rally organized by the Ministry of Youth. Nejash Sheba, a 23-year old Addis Ababa trader and member of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party, told Reuters he had been told by local officials to organize people in his area, and had brought 100 others with him to the rally. "I came here to show my support to Prosperity Party and to denounce the restrictions put on Ethiopia by America." 伊朗支持的民兵在美國眼中 目前還沒有對無人機襲擊做出回應,因此美國似乎對伊拉克局勢採取了觀望態度。 作者:SETH J. FRANZMAN 2021 年 5 月 30 日 16:43 一架伊朗 Shahed 171 無人機投下炸彈,作為在伊朗海灣軍事演習的一部分 (圖片來源:路透社) 廣告 華盛頓越來越厭倦伊朗支持的民兵在伊拉克的威脅。在抗議者被鎮壓後,美國發布了以下信息: “美國對走上街頭敦促改革的和平示威者遭到威脅和野蠻暴力感到憤怒。 “此外,武裝民兵對伊拉克主權和法治的侵犯傷害了所有伊拉克人和他們的國家。我們歡迎政府盡一切努力追究民兵、暴徒和民兵組織對行使言論和和平集會自由權的伊拉克人的襲擊以及對法治的攻擊的責任。” 更大的背景是,今年拜登政府上台後,對駐伊美軍的襲擊仍在繼續。這個問題可以追溯到 2019 年 5 月,當時特朗普政府派國務卿邁克龐培前往該地區警告伊朗在伊拉克​​和海灣地區的作用帶來的威脅。 當伊朗擊落一架美國無人機以及伊拉克卡塔伊布真主黨襲擊沙特阿拉伯時,緊張局勢加劇。伊朗支持的伊拉克民兵開始使用 107-mm。火箭襲擊美國在巴格達、塔吉、巴拉德、卡亞拉和其他地方的設施。 2019 年秋季,與人民動員組織和巴德爾組織有聯繫的親伊朗團體指責以色列進行空襲。襲擊事件增多,美國最終在 2019 年 12 月以空襲作為回應,炸死伊斯蘭革命衛隊聖城部隊負責人 Qasem Soleimani 和真主黨 Kataib Mahdi al-Muhandis。 伊朗以襲擊伊拉克的阿薩德基地作為報復,美國開始從其在伊拉克的幾乎所有設施中撤軍,除了美國大使館附近的 Union III、巴格達的機場和庫爾德斯坦地區的埃爾比勒。 去年秋天,伊朗改變了戰略,越來越多地瞄準阿薩德、機場、美國大使館,然後是埃爾比勒。 2021年初,伊朗以火箭和無人機發動襲擊,構成重大進展,代表新威脅。5 月,另一架向伊拉克親伊朗民兵提供的伊朗無人機損壞了 Al-Asad 基地的一個機庫。 美國在拜登的領導下進行了一系列報復性空襲,於 2 月 26 日襲擊了敘利亞境內伊朗支持的團體。 政府還在研究伊朗如何鎮壓抗議者和殺害持不同政見者。 很大程度上,政府不希望伊拉克迫使美軍撤離。美國在敘利亞已經處於岌岌可危的境地,它已經結束了一項石油特許權,並可能削減對反伊斯蘭國戰士的資助。 前總統唐納德特朗普曾試圖減少美國在伊拉克和敘利亞的軍隊,只剩下幾千人。埃爾比勒不是美國的主要樞紐,因為庫爾德斯坦地區對美國總體上是同情和友好的。 隨著布雷特麥格克和一些重要官員與拜登政府一起回歸,應該關注伊拉克的穩定。在特朗普政府期間,與伊拉克進行了一些“戰略對話”,但伊朗支持的民兵希望美國退出。 美國在一份聲明中說:“我們重申美國政府對伊拉克人民和一個強大、主權和繁榮的伊拉克的持久承諾。” “在無人機襲擊之後,拜登政府內部討論了軍事反應的前景,”華盛頓郵報報導。 問題是,無人機事件會引起什麼反應? 報告稱,政府中的其他人希望保持克制。 《每日電訊報》報導稱:“政府正在認真研究對什葉派民兵在伊拉克侵略美國人的廣泛反應。” 報告稱:“此人表示,官員將在不久的將來尋求拜登批准罷工命令,但無法具體說明具體時間框架。” “第一個了解情況的消息人士表示,會議將於週五舉行,儘管來電者並未獨立證實這一點。” 這留下了許多關於美國對伊拉克的看法的問題。尚未發布對無人機襲擊的回應,因此美國似乎採取了觀望態度。 美方就抗議者發表的聲明表明,美方正在密切關注當地情況。然而,華盛頓知道美國在伊拉克的角色是多麼脆弱。現在可能不會打亂蘋果購物車。 Iranian-backed militias are in America’s sights No response to the drone strikes has been released, so it appears the US has taken wait and see approach regarding the situation in Iraq. By SETH J. FRANTZMAN MAY 30, 2021 16:43 An Iranian Shahed 171 drone dropping a bomb as part of a military exercise in the Gulf, in Iran (photo credit: REUTERS) Advertisement Washington is growing tired of Iranian-backed militia threats in Iraq. After protesters were suppressed, the US released the following message: “The United States is outraged that peaceful demonstrators who took to the streets to urge reform were met with threats and brutal violence. “Moreover, the violation of Iraqi sovereignty and rule of law by armed militias harms all Iraqis and their country. We welcome every effort by the government to hold accountable the militias, thugs, and vigilante groups for their attacks against Iraqis exercising their right to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly as well as for their assault on the rule of law.” The larger context is that attacks on US forces in Iraq continued this year after the Biden administration came into office. This problem goes back to May 2019, when the Trump administration sent secretary of state Mike Pompeo to the region to warn of threats coming from Iran’s role in Iraq and the Gulf. Tensions grew when Iran downed a US drone and there were attacks on Saudi Arabia from Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq began using 107-mm. rockets to strike at US facilities in Baghdad, Taji, Balad, Qayarra and elsewhere. In the fall of 2019, pro-Iran groups linked to the Popular Mobilization Units and the Badr Organization accused Israel of airstrikes. Attacks increased, and the US eventually responded in December 2019 with airstrikes that killed IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani and Kataib Hezbollah leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Iran retaliated with an attack on Al-Asad base in Iraq, and the US started to withdraw forces from almost all its facilities in Iraq, except Union III near the US Embassy, the airport in Baghdad and Erbil in the Kurdistan Region. Iran then shifted its strategy to increasingly target Al-Asad, the airport, the US Embassy and then Erbil last fall. In early 2021, Iran attacked with rockets and drones, which constituted a major development and represented a new threat. A hangar was damaged at Al-Asad base in May by another Iranian drone supplied to pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. The US carried out a retaliatory series of airstrikes under Biden, hitting Iranian-backed groups in Syria on February 26. The administration was also looking at how Iran was suppressing protesters and killing dissidents. Largely, the administration didn’t want Iraq to push US forces to leave. The US is already in a precarious position in Syria, where it has ended an oil concession and may cut funding for anti-ISIS fighters. Former president Donald Trump had sought to reduce US forces in Iraq and Syria, with only several thousand personnel remaining. Erbil is not a major hub for the US because the Kurdistan Region is generally sympathetic and friendly to the US. With Brett McGurk and some key officials coming back with the Biden administration, there should be focus on stability in Iraq. Under the Trump administration, there was some “strategic dialogue” with Iraq, but the Iranian-backed militias wanted the US out. “We reaffirm the US government’s enduring commitment to the Iraqi people and a strong, sovereign, and prosperous Iraq,” the US said in a statement. “In the wake of the drone attack, the prospect of a military response was discussed within the Biden administration,” The Washington Post reported. The question is, What reaction will the drone incident entail? Others in the administration want restraint, the report said. A Daily Caller report said: “The administration is looking hard at a broad range of responses to Shi’ite militia aggression against Americans in Iraq.” “This individual said officials would seek Biden’s approval for the strike orders sometime soon, but could not specify a specific time frame,” the report said. “The first source with knowledge of the situation suggested the meeting will take place Friday, though this was not independently confirmed by the Caller.” This leaves many questions about what the US is thinking regarding Iraq. No response to the drone strikes has been released, so it appears the US has taken a wait-and-see approach. The US statement on the protesters shows the US is paying close attention on the ground. However, Washington knows how tenuous the US role is in Iraq. Upsetting the apple cart now may not be in the cards. 迫擊砲彈擊中阿富汗婚禮,造成至少六人死亡 星期六晚上的爆炸發生在塔加布地區,阿富汗政府軍與塔利班叛亂分子之間發生了戰鬥。 通過路透 2021 年 5 月 30 日 10:43 攜帶武器的塔利班武裝分子 370 (照片來源:路透社/Parwiz) 阿富汗安全官員周日表示,在卡比薩省北部舉行的一場婚禮上,一枚迫擊砲彈擊中了一所房屋,造成至少 6 名阿富汗平民死亡,另有多人受傷。 星期六晚上的爆炸發生在塔加布地區,阿富汗政府軍與塔利班叛亂分子之間發生了戰鬥。 省警察發言人 Shayeq Shoresh 指責塔利班發射迫擊砲,並補充說至少有 6 名平民,包括婦女和兒童被殺,另有 4 人受傷。 但喀布爾的一名高級安全官員稱,死亡人數至少為 10 人,受傷人數為 18 人。 一個塔利班發言人駁回了指控,並表示,砂漿中,阿富汗安全部隊開火。 阿富汗平民經常在交火中首當其衝。 自華盛頓上個月宣布計劃在 9 月 11 日之前將所有美軍撤出阿富汗以來,全國各地的暴力事件急劇增加。 聯合國上個月表示,儘管政府為尋求和平做出了努力,但在2021年頭三個月,儘管政府軍與塔利班叛亂分子之間進行了戰鬥,但仍有1800名阿富汗平民喪生或受傷。 根據阿富汗獨立人權委員會去年的年度報告,2020 年有 8,500 名平民傷亡,其中 2,958 人死亡。 Mortar shell hits Afghan wedding, kills at least six The explosion on Saturday evening was in the Tagab district, which has seen fighting between the Afghan government forces and the Taliban insurgents. By REUTERS MAY 30, 2021 10:43 Taliban militants with weapons 370 (photo credit: REUTERS/Parwiz) Advertisement At least six Afghan civilians were killed and several more were wounded when a mortar shell hit a house during a wedding ceremony in northern Kapisa province, security officials said on Sunday. The explosion on Saturday evening was in the Tagab district, which has seen fighting between the Afghan government forces and the Taliban insurgents. Shayeq Shoresh, a spokesman for the provincial police, blamed the Taliban for firing the mortar and added that at least six civilians, including women and children, were killed and four more wounded. But a senior security official in Kabul put the death toll at at least 10 and the number of wounded at 18. A Taliban spokesman dismissed the allegation and said the mortar was fired by Afghan security forces. Afghan civilians often bear the brunt of the attacks as they aree caught in the crossfire. Violence has sharply increased across the country since Washington announced plans last month to pull out all U.S. troops out of Afghanistan by Sept. 11. Nearly 1,800 Afghan civilians were killed or wounded in the first three months of 2021 during fighting between government forces and Taliban insurgents despite efforts to find peace, the United Nations said last month. According to the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission’s annual report last year, there were 8,500 civilian casualties in 2020, including 2,958 deaths. 德國男子因囤積納粹時代武器而受審 一名身份不明的 84 歲老人據稱存放了一輛軍用坦克、一門高射砲、迫擊砲機槍、突擊步槍、全自動和半自動手槍以及其他納粹時代的軍事裝備。 通過耶路撒冷郵報STAFF 2021 年 5 月 29 日 17:37 希特勒和赫爾曼戈林在 1928 年紐倫堡納粹黨集會上敬禮 (圖片來源:公共領域/海因里希·霍夫曼/美國國家檔案和記錄管理局) 廣告 據DPA International 稱, 一名德國老人因涉嫌非法儲存納粹時代的武器而於週五接受審判。 據稱,這名身份不明的 84 歲老人在他位於基爾的別墅地下室存放了一輛軍用坦克、一把高射砲、迫擊砲機槍、突擊步槍、全自動和半自動手槍、1,000 多發彈藥和一枚魚雷,檢察官說。 這些武器是 2015 年在該男子的家中發現的,當時正在進行一項廣泛的調查,重點是定位這些類型的武器藏匿處。 據報導,德國安全官員花了大約 9 個小時才將重約 40 噸的坦克從地下室移出。 被告的辯護是,他在英國購買的坦克是“廢金屬”。報告指出,檢察官正試圖確定這些武器是否可以使用,這是法庭面臨的“關鍵問題”。 如果這些武器被證明可以使用,那麼檢察官可以聲明該男子明顯違反了德國的戰爭武器控制法,此外還有其他可能使該男子入獄長達五年的罪行。 報告援引法院傳喚的專家的話稱,據信高射砲是藏匿處唯一可操作的武器。 German man goes on trial for hoarding Nazi-era weaponry An unidentified 84-year-old allegedly stored an army tank, an anti-aircraft gun, mortar machine guns, assault rifles, fully and semi-automatic pistols, and other Nazi-era military equipment. By JERUSALEM POST STAFF MAY 29, 2021 17:37 Hitler and Hermann Göring saluting at a 1928 Nazi Party rally in Nuremberg (photo credit: PUBLIC DOMAIN / HEINRICH HOFFMANN / US NATIONAL ARCHIVES AND RECORDS ADMINISTRATION) Advertisement An elderly German man went on trial on Friday for allegedly illegally storing a cache of Nazi-era weaponry, according to DPA International. The unidentified 84-year-old allegedly stored an army tank, an anti-aircraft gun, mortar machine guns, assault rifles, fully and semi-automatic pistols, over 1,000 rounds of ammo and a torpedo in the basement of his villa in Kiel, prosecutors said. The armaments were found in the man's house in 2015, during a widespread investigation focused on locating these types of weapon caches. According to the report, it took German security officials about nine hours to move the tank, which weighed around 40 tons, out of man's basement. The defendant's defense is that he bought the tank in England as "scrap metal." Prosecutors are attempting to ascertain if the weapons were operational or not, which is a "key issue" facing the court, the report noted. If the weapons prove to be operational, then prosecutors can state that the man was in clear violation of Germany's War Weapons Control Act, in addition to other offenses, which could land the man in prison for up to five years. The anti-aircraft gun is believed to be the only operational weaponry in the cache, according to the report citing experts summoned by the court. 土耳其將對土庫曼斯坦的援助轉移給與“努斯拉”有聯繫的極端分子 要了解現代土耳其正在發生的事情,就是觀察一個政黨如何能夠在土耳其社會的斯大林式清洗中獲得絕對權力並清除“敵人”。 作者:SETH J. FRANZMAN 2021 年 5 月 30 日 17:32 2017 年 10 月 11 日,土耳其武裝部隊車輛駛過土耳其-敘利亞邊境線上的一個村莊時,一名男孩向土耳其哈塔伊省雷漢利致敬。 (圖片來源:路透社/OSMAN ORSAL) 廣告 在土耳其最近的醜聞中,該國領導人被指控與親政府的準軍事部隊合謀,將原本用於敘利亞土耳其少數民族的援助轉移到與基地組織和沙姆解放組織有關聯的極端主義團體中。 第八段錄像帶中的啟示是,著名犯罪老闆,逃犯塞達特·佩克(Sedat Peker)發布了抨擊政府的腐敗和失敗事件。 Peker 曾與執政的雷傑普·塔伊普·埃爾多安 (Recep Tayyip Erdogan) 執政黨 AK 黨關係密切,被描述為極端民族主義者,但與該政權鬧翻的故事很複雜。這是執政黨對土耳其絕對權力的追求疏遠了許多曾經親近它的人的眾多例子之一。 要了解現代土耳其正在發生的事情,就要觀察一個政黨如何能夠獲得絕對權力,然後在對土耳其社會進行斯大林式的清洗中清除一系列“敵人”。 AK 黨開始以世俗和左翼抗議者為目標。在鎮壓蓋茲公園的示威活動後,該黨將目光投向了摧毀庫爾德 HDP 反對派,利用 2015 年的兩次選舉挑起與激進的庫爾德工人黨停火的結束。 在土耳其日益增長的民族主義和伊斯蘭運動的推動下,一場戰爭開始了。在戰爭期間,土耳其在敘利亞授權 ISIS,轉向美國,購買俄羅斯的 S-400 並開始支持最右傾的敘利亞反叛組織,將他們作為土耳其向敘利亞擴張的一部分。首先是 2016 年在 Jarabulus 附近的入侵,然後是 2017 年在伊德利卜的入侵,以及 2018 年的阿夫林,170,000 名庫爾德人被驅逐。 土耳其政權在 2016 年發動政變企圖清洗約 20 萬人,控制了司法、學術和社會其他部門。獨立和批判性媒體被關閉,土耳其成為最大的記者監獄。對政治反對派的大規模審判開始了,HDP成員被判入獄,60名HDP市長被解僱,將軍被指控犯有各種陰謀,警察被清除,學生和LGBT活動家被稱為恐怖分子。 該州還追捕了一個與外國神職人員古倫有關的組織,並發明了一個神話般的“FETO 恐怖組織”,據稱與他有關。阿德南·奧克塔 (Adnan Oktar) 經營一家電視台並且是著名的邪教領袖,儘管在前幾年有名的關係,但也被該政權監禁。 畢竟,現在看來該政權已經轉向了自己的支持者,其中一些人被指控為罪犯和黑手黨頭目。Peker 以前被稱為“土耳其黑手黨頭目”,與最高層有聯繫。 Kurdistan 24 在 2017 年表示,“Peker 近年來與政府建立了更密切的聯繫。2015 年 6 月,在伊斯坦布爾舉行的一場臭名昭著的親政府社交媒體巨魔的婚禮上,黑幫頭目被拍到與埃爾多安交談和握手的照片,他張貼了屠夫切肉刀的照片,稱其為與庫爾德人“溝通的最佳方式”叛軍。” 今年早些時候事情開始發生變化,Peker 開始製作視頻,他發誓要揭露國家腐敗和其他交易。披露的內容包括與政府高層直接相關的販毒故事。 5月23日,一份報告指出:“在YouTube上的新視頻中,黑手黨老闆自我流放,繼續對與政府關係密切的人提出指控。前總理比納利耶爾德勒姆的兒子是他販毒指控的核心。” 在上週的視頻中,Peker 與內政部長進行了較量。 BBC 指出,“5 月 23 日星期日,土耳其警方在愛琴海沿岸的穆拉省拘留了 Sedat Peker 的兄弟 Atilla,此前 Sedat 聲稱他於 1996 年派 Atilla 去殺害土族塞人記者 Kutlu Adali。Adali 在塞浦路斯被槍殺,但他的兇手從未被確定。 根據 Sedat Peker 的說法,對 Adali 的襲擊是由前內政部長 Mehmet Agar 下令進行的。他還聲稱 Agar 先生與 1993 年另一名著名記者 Ugur Mumcu 的謀殺案有關。Cumhuriyet 日報的調查記者 Mumcu 被汽車炸彈炸死。” 根據土耳其的各種說法,在周日的最新視頻中,佩克爾指責“向敘利亞運送武器以及在敘利亞邊境進行的非法貿易”。 他說埃爾多安身邊的人誤導了總統。 “你沒電的時候我就在那裡。他們沒有任何權力。沒想到掌聲雷動,我不在前台。我盡我所能。我們將在下一個視頻中一起討論,”他說。 根據土耳其語 Sol TV 的文字記錄,Peker 在他的視頻中提到了卡塔爾和阿塞拜疆。 土耳其已向卡塔爾派兵支持該酋長國,它是多哈的親密盟友。土耳其還派遣敘利亞僱傭軍支持巴庫與亞美尼亞的戰爭。 Peker 提到了卡塔爾的一個“軍事單位”和阿塞拜疆的“子公司”。他還提到了“運往以色列的貨物的船隻”和“巴勒斯坦”的卡塔爾貨幣。目前尚不清楚這種聯繫到底是什麼。 他還在最新的視頻中談到了敘利亞。他說,發送給敘利亞土庫曼斯坦的武器和軍用物資都交給了Al Nusra。 該組織與敘利亞的基地組織有關聯,現在被稱為 Hayat Tahrir al-Sham,控制著敘利亞的伊德利卜。土耳其過去曾與該組織合作,但有別於土耳其公開支持的,由土耳其支持的敘利亞叛軍TFSA。 Peker 指責一家名為 SADAT 的準軍事承包公司,該公司與土耳其執政黨關係密切,將 Peker 提供的援助轉移到敘利亞。他還提到了非法貿易和石油貿易,為此他指名一名與總統有關的人從事交易。 佩克爾談到了他為敘利亞派遣和安排的援助車隊。作為一名民族主義者,他支持敘利亞的土庫曼少數民族。雖然他幫助為車隊運送貨物,但他說他們被轉移了。 Peker聲稱與敘利亞的貿易是通過al-Nusra和由Berat Albayrak領導的團隊進行的,“貿易的錢從哪裡來,”他問道。 佩克暗示,土耳其在敘利亞的角色處理不當,因為善意的支持被轉移或腐敗。他談到了也被轉移的商業和經濟可能性。他將此與 2014 年的一場爭議聯繫起來,當時土耳其情報組織 (MIT) 的卡車在土耳其-敘利亞邊境附近被攔截,這表明土耳其正在向敘利亞提供武器。 Peker 說,他被要求幫助援助土庫曼人,並為他們帶來了卡車資金。 “在麻省理工學院的卡車被抓穫後,我的腦海中發生了一些事情。我們在那裡提高社會的感情,幫助我們那裡的兄弟,土庫曼人,買衣服,但那裡的東西太多了,足夠那裡的所有戰士了。從收音機到無人機再到裝甲背心,還有卡車[裝滿了我們發送的材料]。我們考慮了這個項目,我們傳達給了我們的[政府]副[部長]朋友,他也傳達給了他應該傳達的地方。然後他們說,我們會給你額外的卡車,連同你的卡車……他們通過薩達特在我們的卡車之間發送武器。” 與政府有關聯的 SADAT 似乎能夠控制跨境貿易並將車輛轉移到 al-Nusra,後者成為 HTS。 Sol TV 的文章聲稱“他們向 al-Nusra 發送了武器、車輛……'我用自己的錢購買了所有這些……它代表我,沒有交易,沒有註冊,直接過渡。然後當我開始大量發送三菱汽車時,他們說,你能不能給我們,我說好。'” 車輛怎麼了? “我們的土庫曼朋友說他們是 Al Nusra。真主真主……我們的其他朋友也說這些離開將前往 al-Nusra。是的。他們發送了它……但我不是由 SADAT 成員發送的。” Peker 說是時候打開潘多拉魔盒了。 “現在,你知道在敘利亞做生意需要做什麼嗎?” 他點名了與政府有關的各種人。 “我不是在談論這樣的生意,大的非法原油、茶葉、糖、鋁、銅、二手車。數十億美元的資金。誰給敘利亞鬥爭的錢?狀態。誰殉難了?我現在將描述在那裡完成的交易……在你得到那裡的批准後,有[業務]組……整個層次結構都在那裡。在他們批准後,al-Nusra 擁有經濟主管。” 這意味著雖然政府支持敘利亞叛軍,但其龐大的經濟被轉移到敘利亞與極端分子合作,這些腐敗的資金從未回到土耳其國家,而是被抽走了。他們甚至從黑手黨那裡偷走了,這就是一些國家當局的腐敗程度。 “我們應該進入敘利亞嗎?進入。停留。留下來,但為什麼錢從來沒有到過國家,錢還在那裡。但是那裡有交易,賺了大錢。原油、銅、鋁,”Peker 說。 “這四年來,這個國家有這麼多大的控股、機構和組織,都傳給了這家公司。” 他指責內政部長知道這件事。然後,他提到了在政府於 2019 年和 2020 年向利比亞派遣敘利亞僱傭軍後,在利比亞贏得招標的五到十個家庭。 “我遇到了一個有趣的事件。我們在利比亞非常重要,[這筆交易被稱為]藍色家園。” 文章隨後引用了駐的黎波里的利比亞領導人法耶茲·薩拉吉,後者批准了土耳其在利比亞的角色。 關於安卡拉在利比亞的角色以及對極端分子的支持的新聞和細節可以追溯到幾年前。早在2017年,Hurriyet指出,HTS部隊在伊德利卜(Idlib)護送了土耳其車隊。 一位作家指出,這應該引起人們的關注:“之所以如此,是因為Tahrir al-Sham是Salafist網絡,該網絡於2017年初通過合併包括被稱為恐怖組織的al-Nusra在內的多個敘利亞組織而形成。Nusra 是一個組織,它是紮根於阿富汗的基地組織的敘利亞分支。但是,努斯拉(Nusra)在2016年與基地組織斷絕了聯繫。” 我們現在知道真實的故事可能會更深入,安卡拉不僅在伊斯蘭國控制敘利亞部分地區時從非法貿易中獲利,而且在土耳其入侵幼發拉底河之後繼續在敘利亞做惡行。這將敘利亞北部變成了極端分子的傾倒場,向極端分子輸送或轉移物資和援助,使叛亂分子依賴並賦予 HTS 權力。土耳其通過與該政權關係密切的人設立的公司,以及通過私人軍事承包商轉移援助,甚至是知名黑手黨頭目提供的援助來做到這一點,這表明該政權如何與犯罪活動糾纏不清,並在為極端主義團體提供燃料的同時從敘利亞的苦難中獲利. Mob boss: Turkey diverted aid for Turkmen to 'Nusra' linked extremists To understand what is happening in modern Turkey is to watch how one party was able to achieve absolute power and remove “enemies” in a Stalin-like purge of Turkish society. By SETH J. FRANTZMAN MAY 30, 2021 17:32 A boy salutes as Turkish Armed Forces vehicles drive pass by a village on the Turkish-Syrian border line in Reyhanli, Hatay province, Turkey October 11, 2017. (photo credit: REUTERS/OSMAN ORSAL) Advertisement In Turkey’s latest scandal the country’s leadership is accused of conspiring with a pro-government paramilitary force to divert aid intended for the Turkish minority in Syria, to extremist groups linked to al-Qaeda and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. The revelations came out in the eighth video that Sedat Peker, reputed crime boss and fugitive, has released slamming the government for corruption and failings. The story of how Peker, who has been described as an ultra-nationalist once close to the ruling AK Party of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, had fallen out with the regime is complex. It is one of many instances where the ruling party’s quest for absolute power in Turkey has alienated many of those once close to it. To understand what is happening in modern Turkey is to watch how one political party was able to achieve absolute power and then worked to remove a series of “enemies” in a Stalin-like purge of Turkish society. The AK Party began with targeting secular and left-wing protesters. After crushing the Gezi Park demonstrations, the party set its sights on destroying the Kurdish HDP opposition, using two elections in 2015 to provoke the end of the ceasefire with the militant PKK. A war began, fueled by Turkey’s growing nationalism and Islamist movements. During the war, Turkey empowered ISIS in Syria, turned on the US, bought Russia’s S-400 and began to support the most right-leaning Syrian rebel groups, to co-opt them as part of Turkey’s expansion into Syria. This began with invasions in 2016 near Jarabulus and then again in 2017 in Idlib, and Afrin in 2018, where 170,000 Kurds were expelled. Turkey’s regime used a coup attempt in 2016 to purge some 200,000 people, taking control of the judiciary, academics and other parts of society. Independent and critical media were shut down, and Turkey became the largest jailer of journalists. Mass trials of political opponents began, with HDP members jailed, 60 HDP mayors dismissed, generals accused of various plots, police purged, and students and LGBT activists called terrorists. The state also went after a group linked to a foreign cleric called Gulen and invented a mythical “FETO terrorist group” it said was linked to him. Adnan Oktar, who ran a TV station and was a reputed cult leader, was also jailed by the regime, despite reputed ties in prior years. Now after all that it seems the regime has turned on its own supporters, some of whom are accused of being criminals and mafia bosses. Peker was formerly known as a “Turkish mafia boss” with connections at the highest levels. Kurdistan 24 said in 2017 that “Peker developed closer ties with the government in recent years. In June 2015, the gang leader was photographed having a conversation and shaking hands with Erdogan at the wedding in Istanbul of an infamous pro-government social media troll who had posted the picture of a butcher cleaver as ‘the best way to communicate’ with Kurdish rebels.” Things began to change earlier this year and Peker began to make videos in which he vowed to expose state corruption and other dealings. The revelations have included stories of drug-trafficking linked directly to the top layers of government. On May 23 one report noted that “in a new YouTube video, the mafia boss in a self-imposed exile has continued making allegations against people close to the government. Former Prime Minister Binali Yildirim’s son is at the center of his drug trafficking allegation.” In his videos last week Peker took on the Interior Minister. BBC noted that “on Sunday May 23 Turkish police detained Sedat Peker’s brother Atilla in Mugla province, on the Aegean coast, after Sedat claimed he had sent Atilla to kill Turkish Cypriot journalist Kutlu Adali in 1996. Adali was shot dead in Cyprus, but his killers were never identified. According to Sedat Peker, the hit on Adali had been ordered by ex-interior minister Mehmet Agar. He also alleged that Mr. Agar was linked to the murder in 1993 of Ugur Mumcu, another prominent journalist. Mumcu, an investigative journalist for Cumhuriyet daily, was killed by a car bomb.” In the latest video on Sunday, Peker made accusations “about the weapons sent to Syria and the illegal trade carried out on the Syrian border,” according to various accounts in Turkey. He said that those around Erdogan have misled the president. “I was there when you had no power. They did not have any power. I did not expect applause, I was not in the foreground. I did whatever I could. We will talk together in the next video,” he said. Peker referenced Qatar and Azerbaijan in his videos, according to a transcript at Sol TV in Turkish. Turkey has sent troops to Qatar to support the Emirate and it is a close ally of Doha. Turkey also sent Syrian mercenaries to support Baku in a war against Armenia. Peker referenced a “military unit” in Qatar and “sub-companies” in Azerbaijan. He also mentioned a “ship carrying goods going to Israel” and Qatari money for “Palestine.” It was not clear exactly what this connection was about. He also spoke about Syria in his latest video. He said that weapons and military supplies sent to Turkmen in Syria were given to Al Nusra. This is a group that was linked to al-Qaeda in Syria and is now called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and controls Idlib in Syria. Turkey has worked with this group in the past, but distinguishes it from the Turkish-backed Syrian rebels called TFSA, a group Turkey openly backs. Peker blamed a paramilitary contracting company called SADAT that is close to the Turkish ruling party for diverting aid sent by Peker to Syria. He also mentioned illegal commerce and oil trades, for which he named one man, linked to the presidency, as dealing in. Peker spoke about aid convoys he had sent and arranged for Syria. As a nationalist, he supported Turkmen minorities in Syria. While he helped get he goods for the convoys, he said they were diverted. Peker claimed that trade with Syria was carried out through al-Nusra and the team led by Berat Albayrak, “Where is the money going from the trade,” he asked. Peker implied that Turkey has mishandled its role in Syria because well intentioned support was diverted or corrupted. He spoke of commercial and economic possibilities that have been diverted as well. He linked this with a controversy in 2014 when Turkish Intelligence Organization (MIT) trucks were stopped near the Turkish-Syrian border, revealing that Turkey was supplying weapons to Syria. Peker said he was asked to help aid Turkmen and he brought them funds for trucks. “Something happened in my mind after the MIT trucks were caught. We are there to raise the feelings of the society and to help our brothers there, to the Turkmens, for the clothes, but there was too much, enough for all the fighters there. From the radios to drones to the armored vests, there are the trucks [full of the material we sent]. We thought about this project, we conveyed that to our [government] deputy [minister] friend, and he also conveyed it to the places that he should convey. Then they said, we’ll give you additional trucks, along with your trucks….They sent weapons between our trucks via SADAT.” It appears that SADAT, linked to the government, was able to take control of this trade across the border and divert vehicles to al-Nusra, which became HTS. The Sol TV article claimed “they sent weapons, vehicles to al-Nusra….’I buy all of them with my own money…it goes on my behalf, there is no transaction, no registration, direct transition is made. Then when I started to send a large amount of Mitsubishi vehicles, they said, can you give it to us, I said okay.’” What happened with the vehicles? “Our Turkmen friends said they are Al Nusra. Allah Allah … Our other friends also say that these departures are going to al-Nusra. Yes. They send it…but I did not send it by SADAT members.” Peker said it is time to open the Pandora’s Box. “Now, do you know what you need to do to do business in Syria?” He named various people linked to the government. “I’m not talking about such a business, big, illegal crude oil, tea, sugar, aluminum, copper, second-hand vehicles. Billions of dollars of money. Who gave the money for the Syrian struggle? The state. Who was martyred? I will now describe the trade that is done there….After you get the approval from there, there is the [business] group…the whole hierarchy is there. After their approval, al-Nusra has the chief of economy.” The implication is that while the government supported the Syrian rebels, its huge economy was diverted to work with extremists in Syria and these corrupted funds never made it back to the Turkish state, but were siphoned off. They even stole from the mafia, that is how corrupt some of the state authorities were. “Should we enter Syria? Enter. Stay. Stay, but why does the money never come to the state, the money is still going there. But there is a trade there, big money is made. Crude oil, copper, aluminum,” said Peker. “In the last four years, there are so many big holdings, institutions and organizations in this country, they all passed to this company.” He accused the Interior Minister of knowing about this. He then referenced five or ten families who won tenders in Libya after the government sent Syrian mercenaries there in 2019 and 2020. “I had an interesting incident. It is very important that we are in Libya, [the deal is called the] Blue Homeland.” The article then references Tripoli-based Libyan leader Fayez Sarraj who approved the Turkish role in Libya. News and details about Ankara’s role in Libya and support for extremists have gone back years. Back in 2017 Hurriyet noted that HTS forces had escorted a Turkish convoy in Idlib. It should raise eyebrows that a writer noted: “The reason why is because Tahrir al-Sham is a Salafist network that was formed in early 2017 by merging a number of Syrian groups including al-Nusra, which is labeled a terror organization. Nusra is a group that was formed as a Syrian offshoot of the Afghan-rooted al-Qaeda. However, Nusra cut ties with al-Qaeda in 2016.” We now know that the real story may go much deeper, Ankara not only profited off illegal trade when ISIS ran part of Syria, but continued to do nefarious deeds in Syria after the Turkish invasion in Euphrates Shield. This transformed northern Syria into a dumping ground for extremists, and funneled or diverted supplies and aid to extremists, making the rebels dependent and empowering HTS. That Turkey did this via companies set up by those close to the regime, and via private military contractors diverting aid, even aid sent by reputed mafia bosses, shows how entangled the regime, has been with criminality and profiting off Syria’s suffering while fueling extremist groups. 貝內特宣布計劃與拉皮德組建政府,將推翻內塔尼亞胡 Sa'ar 拒絕了 Likud 提出的總理輪換第一名的提議 • New Hope 和 Yesh Atid 談判團隊將舉行會議以組建一個聯合政府。 通過GIL HOFFMAN 2021 年 5 月 30 日 22:38 Yamina領導人 Naftali Bennett 週日發表了他期待已久的聲明,他將與 Yesh Atid 領導人 Yair Lapid 一起加入政府,並尋求取代總理本傑明內塔尼亞胡,他指責他因個人原因導致以色列民族自殺。 Yesh Atid 和 Yamina 在周日晚上宣布後立即開始談判,以期在周三的最後期限前達成協議。 當天可能會舉行對政府的信任投票和宣誓就職儀式。但從法律上講,一旦拉皮德告訴魯文·里夫林總統他可以組建政府,他就有一周的時間去做。 以色列議會議長亞里夫·萊文可能會在一周內阻止投票。但他的發言人表示,他不會搞政治把戲。 “在如此關鍵的時刻,必須承擔責任,”貝內特說。“因此,我今天宣布,我將竭盡全力採取行動,與我的朋友亞伊爾·拉皮德(Yair Lapid)組成一個民族團結政府,以便上帝願意,我們將一起從這個混亂中解救這個國家,並讓以色列回到正軌。 “Yair 和我在一些實質性問題上存在分歧。但是我們是對國家的熱愛和為國家而工作的意願的合作夥伴。” 貝內特邀請各方在聯盟談判和政府中實現目標時表現出克制。他說,更多的選舉將使這個國家崩潰,並補充說他已決定“停止瘋狂”。 “唯一的選擇是聯合政府或選舉,”他說。“那些說可能出現右翼政府的人是在撒謊。” 作為回應,內塔尼亞胡表示,如果貝內特允許拉皮德在周三晚上結束組建政府的任務,來自所謂的變革陣營的 MK 將叛逃並促成右翼政府的組建。 貝內特是為自己的個人利益而行事,他知道如果再舉行一次選舉,他的政治生涯就會結束,他說,並補充說:“如果他們知道你會做什麼,就不會投票給你。” 內塔尼亞胡說,貝內特組建的不是一個統一政府,而是一個會損害以色列威懾力的軟弱的政府。他將其與敘利亞和伊朗政治中正在發生的事情進行了比較。 一名政黨發言人表示,早些時候,亞米納領導人貝內特和阿耶萊特·沙克德在周日的亞米納派系會議上表示贊成與拉皮德組建聯合政府,他們得到了該派系 MK 的支持。 “領導意味著承擔責任,而不是逃避責任,”貝內特告訴該派系。“我們有紅線,我們不會越過它們。我們不會放棄領土或損害以色列國的猶太人身份。像其他人一樣容易保持頑固和輕火。這就是讓國家分裂的方式。” 七人中唯一發誓要造反的 Yamina MK 是 Amichai Chikli,他沒有參加會議。他在接受電台採訪時表示,儘管來自黨內的壓力要求他辭職,但他將投票反對政府,貝內特和拉皮德將組建並保留他在議會中的席位。 “黑旗懸停在”這樣的政府上,奇克利週六晚在推特上寫道,指的是試圖讓內塔尼亞胡下台的黑旗抗議運動。 週日早上,新希望黨領袖吉迪恩·薩爾拒絕了利庫德集團提出的與內塔尼亞胡輪換擔任總理的提議,然後是貝內特三人輪換。 利庫德集團談判代表 Yaakov Atraktzi 在周六晚上與 Sa'ar 的談話中提出了這一提議。根據提議,薩爾將在前 15 個月擔任總理,其次是內塔尼亞胡兩年,然後是貝內特的剩餘任期。 內塔尼亞胡以書面形式提出要約,並得到沙斯、聯合托拉猶太教和宗教猶太復國主義黨的領導人簽署。 “為了結束個人考慮並採取史無前例、影響深遠的步驟來保障以色列國的安全和特色,並防止組建一個危及國家的左翼政府,我們在下面簽名的政黨領袖是提出這個提議,”給貝內特和薩爾的信說。 內塔尼亞胡在社交媒體帖子中表示,他已邀請薩爾和貝內特立即會面並為右翼政府達成協議。 薩爾在推特上重申他的政黨反對內塔尼亞胡繼續掌權。 他寫道:“我們的立場和義務仍然是取代內塔尼亞胡的統治。” “我們將繼續按照此行事。未來幾天的熱情建議:忽略政治旋轉。” New Hope 和 Yesh Atid 的談判團隊週日會面,努力敲定關於聯合政府的協議。 藍白黨沒有取得重大進展,導致在變革營中對藍白黨領袖本尼·甘茨的批評。 拉皮德和貝內特已商定,貝內特將擔任總理至 2023 年 9 月,拉皮德將接任至 2025 年 11 月任期結束。 Bennett announces plan to form gov't with Lapid that will oust Netanyahu Sa'ar turned down Likud's offer for first place in PM rotation • New Hope and Yesh Atid negotiating teams will meet to form a unity government. By GIL HOFFMAN MAY 30, 2021 22:38 Yamina leader Naftali Bennett announces that he will form a unity government with Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid., May 30, 2021. (photo credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH 90) Advertisement Yamina leader Naftali Bennett delivered his long-awaited announcement on Sunday that he would join a government with Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid and seek to replace Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who he accused of leading Israel to national suicide for his own personal reasons. Yesh Atid and Yamina began negotiations immediately following the announcement on Sunday night in an effort to reach an agreement by Wednesday’s deadline. A vote of confidence in the government and a swearing-in ceremony could take place that day. But legally, once Lapid tells President Reuven Rivlin he can form a government, he has a week to do it. Knesset Speaker Yariv Levin could block the vote for up to a week. But his spokesman said he would not engage in political tricks. “At such a crucial moment, responsibility must be taken,” Bennett said. “Therefore, I am announcing today that I intend to act with all my strength to form a national-unity government together with my friend Yair Lapid so that, God willing, together we will rescue the country from this tailspin, and we will get Israel back on track. “Yair and I disagree on a number of issues of substance. But we are partners in our love for the country and willingness to work for the sake of the country.” Bennett invited parties to show restraint in achieving their goals in coalition talks and in the government. More elections would collapse the country, he said, adding that he had decided instead to “stop the craziness.” “The only options are a unity government or elections,” he said. “Those saying a right-wing government is possible are lying.” In response, Netanyahu said if Bennett would have allowed Lapid’s mandate to form a government to end on Wednesday night, MKs from the so-called change camp would have defected and enabled the formation of a right-wing government. Bennett was acting for his own personal interests, knowing that if there were to be another election, his political career would be over, he said, adding: “No one would have voted for you if they knew what you would do.” What Bennett was forming was not a unity government but a weak government that would harm Israel’s deterrence, Netanyahu said. He compared it to what is happening in politics in Syria and Iran. Earlier, Yamina leaders Bennett and Ayelet Shaked spoke in favor of forming a unity government with Lapid at Sunday’s Yamina faction meeting, and they received backing from the MKs in the faction, a party spokesman said. “Leadership means taking responsibility and not running from it,” Bennett told the faction. “We have redlines, and we will not cross them. We will not give up territory or harm the Jewish identity of the State of Israel. It would be easy to remain stubborn and light fires like others. That is the way to make the country come apart.” The only Yamina MK of the seven who has vowed to rebel is Amichai Chikli, who did not attend the meeting. He would vote against the government Bennett and Lapid will form and keep his seat in the Knesset despite pressure from inside his party to resign, he said in radio interviews. “Black flags hover over” such a government, Chikli wrote on Twitter on Saturday night in a reference to the Black Flag protest movement that has tried to bring Netanyahu down. New Hope leader Gideon Sa’ar turned down offers from Likud on Sunday morning to rotate as prime minister with Netanyahu and then Bennett in a three-man rotation. Likud negotiator Yaakov Atraktzi made the offer in a conversation with Sa’ar on Saturday night. According to the offer, Sa’ar would serve as prime minister for the first 15 months, followed by Netanyahu for two years and then Bennett for the remainder of the term. Netanyahu put the offer in writing and got the leaders of Shas, United Torah Judaism and the Religious Zionist Party to sign it. “In an effort to end personal considerations and take unprecedented, far-reaching steps to guarantee the security and the character of the State of Israel and prevent the formation of a left-wing government that would endanger the state, we the undersigned party heads are making this offer,” the letter to Bennett and Sa’ar says. In a social-media post, Netanyahu said he had invited Sa’ar and Bennett to meet immediately and close a deal for a right-wing government. Sa’ar reacted on Twitter by reiterating his party’s opposition to Netanyahu remaining in power. “Our position and our obligation remains to replace Netanyahu’s rule,” he wrote. “We will continue to act in accordance with that. Warm recommendation for the next few days: Ignore the political spin.” The negotiating teams of New Hope and Yesh Atid met Sunday in an effort to finalize an agreement on a unity government. No significant progress has been made with Blue and White, leading to criticism of Blue and White leader Benny Gantz in the change camp. Lapid and Bennett have agreed that Bennett will serve first as prime minister until September 2023, and Lapid will take over until the term ends in November 2025. 比比瘋人院四分之一個世紀結束了嗎?- 分析 如果內塔尼亞胡達到頂峰並最終以同樣令人驚訝的方式離開它,它將恰如其分地關閉一個圓圈。 通過GIL HOFFMAN 2021 年 5 月 30 日 21:42 美國總統唐納德特朗普和總理本雅明內塔尼亞胡的照片在以色列展示了關於吞併的標誌 (圖片來源:COURTESY YESHA COUNCIL) 廣告 1996 年 5 月 30 日上午,許多選民醒來後驚訝地發現本傑明·內塔尼亞胡贏得了選舉,根據當時唯一可用的出口民意調查,他們睡著了,期待現任西蒙·佩雷斯獲勝。 1. 前一天晚上,該頻道播出的選舉節目顯示,工黨領袖歡欣鼓舞地慶祝佩雷斯的“勝利”,而魯文·里夫林(Reuven Rivlin)和齊皮·利夫尼(Tzipi Livni)等利庫德集團的中堅分子則為在一場艱苦的戰鬥中失敗而感到悲痛。 四分之一個世紀後,內塔尼亞胡仍然是總理。他仍然震驚選民並無視預期。 那些確定那天晚上他們已經結束了內塔尼亞胡新生的政治生涯的人,仍然確信結束就在眼前。 但雙方對內塔尼亞胡的感情並沒有減少,內塔尼亞胡繼續喚起以色列政治中最強烈的激情。愛他的人看他無可替代,鄙視他的人恨不得看到他離開。 從那時起,許多政客改變了立場。佩雷斯和內塔尼亞胡在佩雷斯的最後幾年相處得很好,而里夫林、利夫尼以及在他漫長的政治生涯中與他密切合作的許多人如今都討厭他。 幫助內塔尼亞胡當選的戰略家之一,亞瑟芬克爾斯坦的門生喬治·伯恩鮑姆在 3 月的選舉中擔任亞米納領導人納夫塔利·貝內特的高級戰略顧問,並在此後努力成為總理以取代內塔尼亞胡。 “成為本傑明·內塔尼亞胡總理的一部分,是我一生中最偉大和最自豪的成就之一,”伯恩鮑姆週日說。“它為以色列開創了一個新時代。這也讓我走上了一條讓我參與過去 25 年來每次以色列全國大選的道路。比比一直是猶太人安全保障的堅定支持者。我也為我與 Naftali Bennett 的合作感到非常自豪,很難相信 Bibi 首次成為總理已經 25 年了。當我們展望未來 25 年時,我希望納夫塔利和所有其他追隨他的領導人能夠帶領以色列和猶太人民和平繁榮。” 伯恩鮑姆用來形容內塔尼亞胡戰勝一切困難和貝內特以只有六個席位前往英超聯賽的詞是“令人難以置信的”。 事實上,如果內塔尼亞胡達到頂峰並最終以同樣令人驚訝的方式離開它,它將恰如其分地關閉一個圓圈。 自那以後,他第一次選舉當晚以色列政壇的混亂感一直持續,看起來像是內塔尼亞胡作為總理的最後幾天。 內塔尼亞胡背靠牆發表演講並發布視頻,顯示他顯得絕望。他向各個方向開火,並提出了看似荒謬的提議,包括在競選期間排除“輪換和突變”後,由三人輪換擔任總理。 內塔尼亞胡在 25 年前的那次選舉中擊敗了佩雷斯,儘管失去選舉給佩雷斯帶來了痛苦,但他決心在卸任後優雅地離開。 在這方面,內塔尼亞胡仍然可以追隨佩雷斯的腳步,儘管這似乎不太可能。 再說一次,對內塔尼亞胡來說,震驚選民和無視期望是他政治遺產的一部分。 Is it the end of a quarter century of Bibi bedlam? - analysis It would fittingly close a circle if Netanyahu reached the pinnacle and ended up leaving it in just as surprising fashion. By GIL HOFFMAN MAY 30, 2021 21:42 Signs abour annexation with pictures of US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are displayed in Israel (photo credit: COURTESY YESHA COUNCIL) Advertisement On the morning of May 30, 1996, many voters woke up stunned to discover that Benjamin Netanyahu had won the election, after they had gone to sleep expecting incumbent Shimon Peres to win, according to the only exit poll available in those days, on Channel 1. The night before, the election broadcast on the channel showed Labor leaders celebrating Peres’s “victory” with great joy, while Likud stalwarts such as Reuven Rivlin and Tzipi Livni commiserated over losing a hard-fought battle. A quarter-century later, Netanyahu is still prime minister. He is still shocking voters and defying expectations. And those who were sure they had ended Netanyahu’s nascent political career that night, are still certain that the end is nigh. But both sides are no less emotional about Netanyahu, who continues to evoke the most intense passions in Israeli politics. Those who love him see him as irreplaceable, and those who despise him cannot wait to see him leave. Plenty of politicians have changed sides since then. Peres and Netanyahu got along well in Peres’s final years, while Rivlin, Livni and many of those who worked closely with him throughout his long political career detest him nowadays. One of the strategists who helped Netanyahu get elected, Arthur Finkelstein’s protégé, George Birnbaum, was the senior strategic adviser of Yamina leader Naftali Bennett in the March election and in his efforts since then to become prime minister in place of Netanyahu. “Being part of having elected Benjamin Netanyahu prime minister is one of the greatest and proudest achievements of my life,” Birnbaum said Sunday. “It ushered in a new era for Israel. It also started me on a path that had me involved in every Israeli national election for the past 25 years. Bibi has been a stalwart for the safety and security of the Jewish people. I am also very proud of my work with Naftali Bennett and find it hard to believe it’s been 25 years since Bibi first became prime minister. As we look to the next 25 years, I wish Naftali and all the other leaders who will follow him that they lead Israel and the Jewish people in peace and prosperity.” The word that Birnbaum used to describe both Netanyahu’s victory against all odds and Bennett being en route to the premiership with only six seats was “unbelievable.” Indeed, it would fittingly close a circle if Netanyahu reached the pinnacle and ended up leaving it in just as surprising fashion. The sense of confusion in Israeli politics on the night of his first election has continued since then and remains in what look like Netanyahu’s final days as prime minister. With his back against the wall, Netanyahu has made speeches and issued videos that have shown him appearing desperate. He has fired in every direction and made offers that have appeared ridiculous, including a three-man rotation as prime minister after ruling out “rotations and mutations” during his campaign. Netanyahu defeated Peres in that election a quarter-century ago, and despite the pain that losing the election caused Peres, he was determined to go out gracefully when he left office. Netanyahu can still follow in Peres’s footsteps in that regard, though it appears unlikely. Then again, for Netanyahu, shocking voters and defying expectations is part of his political legacy. 貝內特說,內塔尼亞胡領導的努力徒勞無功,選擇與拉皮德組成統一政府 亞米娜領導人將此舉描述為更多選舉的唯一選擇;內塔尼亞胡指責他欺騙選民並聲稱右翼MK仍然可以叛逃並魚雷“左翼”出價 通過TOI人員今天,晚上 10:44 Yamina 領導人 Naftali Bennett週日宣布,他將與 Yesh Atid 領導人 Yair Lapid 聯合組成一個聯盟,承諾一個右傾的聯合政府將結束兩年多的政治僵局,並在連續 12 年上任後驅逐總理本雅明內塔尼亞胡力量。 “選舉證明內塔尼亞胡領導下沒有右翼政府。有團結或第五次選舉,“貝內特在全國電視講話中說,在與拉皮德和內塔尼亞胡的會談之間搖擺不定數週之後,他似乎最終可以支持任何一位領導人。 該公告證實了幾天來有關貝內特選擇與拉皮德輪換協議的傳言,該協議將使右翼政黨領導人在未來兩年擔任總理主席,這可能會引發以色列政治的巨變,內塔尼亞胡將看到內塔尼亞胡在多次未能為自己的聯盟提供足夠的支持後,他的前盟友斷絕了權力。 在貝內特發言後的反駁幾分鐘內,內塔尼亞胡指責貝內特是對“世紀騙局”負責的連環犯,並聲稱他確實可以組建一個右翼政府,並且仍然可以阻撓貝內特-拉皮德的變革擁有足夠多的叛逃者的集團,呼籲右翼 MK 拒絕此舉。 他說:“我們可以擁有一個絕對可靠的右翼政府,而無需參加選舉,而不是左翼政府。” 他稱他與貝內特和新希望的吉迪恩薩爾提議的三輪總理輪換“非常不可接受、不尋常和歪曲……但比左翼政府好。” 在他的講話中,貝內特稱拉皮德為“我的朋友”,他發誓,對於一個因反複選舉而四分五裂、陷入內部裂痕和政治癱瘓的國家來說,聯合政府是最好的選擇,他說這已經“破壞”了這個國家,但他否認它會有一個左翼彎曲。 “這是一場全球史無前例的政治危機。我們可以進行第五次選舉、第六次、第十次選舉。我們可以一張一張地拆除國家的牆,直到房子倒在我們頭上,”他說,獨自站在以色列議會新聞發布室的講台上。“或者我們可以停止這種瘋狂並承擔責任。” “沒有人會被要求放棄他們的意識形態,但每個人都將不得不推遲他們的一些夢想的實現。我們將專注於可以做的事情,而不是爭論什麼是不可能的,”他補充道。 貝內特一再指責內塔尼亞胡和他的利庫德集團撒謊並試圖恐嚇他的右翼基地。 2014 年 3 月 11 日,猶太家庭主席 Naftali Bennett(左)在以色列議會全體會議上與 Yesh Atid 主席 Yair Lapid 交談。(Miriam Alster/Flash90) 他說:“我們面臨著一台運轉良好的機器,它不斷散佈謊言,以在公眾心中灌輸恐懼。” 根據 Yamina 和 Yesh Atid 之間新出現的輪換協議,Bennett 將首先擔任總理,然後將韁繩交給拉皮德。加入聯盟的將是右翼、中間派和左翼政黨,他們拒絕繼續加入內塔尼亞胡領導的政府,內塔尼亞胡正在接受三起刑事案件的審判。 亞米納一直是最大的政黨,仍然保持與內塔尼亞胡合作的可能性,但貝內特週日一再駁回這種可能性,稱“沒有人相信他”,指的是內塔尼亞胡違反了對其他黨派領導人的政治承諾,並搖擺不定今年早些時候與 Blue and White 的 Benny Gantz 達成輪換協議。 貝內特的聲明似乎為內塔尼亞胡連續 12 年統治的棺材釘上了釘子。然而,立法者可能會叛逃或缺席,再加上以色列瞬息萬變的時事,這意味著在以色列議會批准新政府之前,不確定性將普遍存在,投票預計不會再持續幾天。新生的聯盟顯然在擁有 120 個席位的以色列議會中得到了 61 名 MK 的支持,因此即使是一次叛逃也可能使其失去多數席位。它仍然需要伊斯蘭拉姆黨的支持,該黨尚未確認是否會給予聯盟四名以色列議會成員的支持。 拉皮德組建政府的任務將於週三午夜結束。到目前為止,他已經與 Yisrael Beytenu、Meretz 和工黨達成了非正式的聯盟協議,並希望在未來幾天內與 Blue and White 和 New Hope 達成協議,儘管該聯盟可能要在下週進行投票和宣誓就職. 利庫德集團和其他反對政府的政黨正計劃利用這段時間來加大對右翼 MK 的壓力,以使他們在聯盟開始之前背叛並殺死聯盟。 在他自己的講話中,內塔尼亞胡試圖利用亞米納和新希望的右翼人士對與左翼工黨和梅雷茨合作感到緊張的擔憂,稱其為“對國家構成威脅的左翼政府”。 ” 他說:“如果確實發生了,天堂禁止,請考慮誰將在安全櫃中:Yair Lapid,[Meretz負責人] Nitzan Horovitz,[Labor負責人] Meirav Michaeli和[Meretz MK] Tamar Zandberg。” “這將對以色列的威懾能力產生什麼影響?我們將如何看待我們的敵人?他們會在伊朗和加沙說什麼?他們將在伊朗和加沙做什麼?他們會在華盛頓政府的走廊上說什麼?” “拉皮德、贊德伯格和他的公司會對抗伊朗嗎?” 他反問。“他們全心全意支持那個危險的核協議。他們會打哈馬斯嗎?他們取決於 [阿拉伯 MKs Ahmad] Tibi 和 [Ayman] Odeh 的投票。他們將在海牙保衛我們的士兵?……誰來保護定居點……?開玩笑的……” 總理本傑明·內塔尼亞胡譴責競爭對手納夫塔利·貝內特新宣布的與亞伊爾·拉皮德建立聯合政府的計劃,該政府將於 2021 年 5 月 30 日結束他擔任總理的 12 年。(截圖) 兩人講話時,數百名激進分子在亞米娜 2 號 Ayelet Shaked 位於特拉維夫的家外集會,競爭陣營試圖說服亞米娜 MKs 反抗和破壞計劃,或推動變革集團政府。 幾小時前,亞米娜發表聲明稱,在貝內特更新了他們的舉動後,該黨的 MK 已經“支持貝內特組建政府並阻止第五次選舉的計劃”。 發誓不加入 Lapid 聯盟的 Yamina MK Amichai Chikli 沒有出席,這意味著該決定得到了 Yamina 七名立法者中的六名支持,包括 Bennett 和 Shaked。 貝內特在講話中稱組建聯合政府的決定是“我一生中最複雜的一次”,但表示他已經接受了。 他一再強調新生聯盟的右翼真誠,其中還包括鷹派的以色列貝特努黨,並要求其他派係也加入。 2021 年 5 月 30 日,利庫德集團的支持者和反對者在特拉維夫的 Ayelet Shaked 家外抗議。(Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90) “事實是,這將是一個比現任政府稍微偏右的政府,”他說,並指出左傾政黨在任命他為總理和薩爾司法部長方面做出了“艱難的讓步”。 “我們並沒有偏離我們的價值觀。這不是一個會脫離[定居點]的政府,不會歸還土地,也不會害怕在需要時進行軍事行動。政治環境不會阻止我們。” 內塔尼亞胡聲稱貝內特對他的選民撒謊,說如果他們知道他會加入拉皮德,他們都不會投票給他,並將他描繪成一個渴望權力的政治機會主義者。 “他不想要選舉,因為他知道他會被抹去,他不會跨過門檻,”內塔尼亞胡說。“他只關心自己。他要當首相兩年,一年不夠。” 他聲稱,以色列議會成員告訴他,如果貝內特同意,他們將叛逃並幫助支持內塔尼亞胡和貝內特領導的輪換政府,並敦促那些 MK 繼續反對這一舉動。 “不要欺騙支持你的公眾,也不要欺騙自己……如果你是右翼,你就不會投票給左翼政府。如果你投票支持左翼政府,你就不是右翼,”他說。 演講後不久,Yesh Atid 宣布與 Yamina 的會談將在周日晚上重新開始。 據報導,目前負責組建政府的拉皮德計劃週一訪問魯文·里夫林總統,告知他他已成功組建了一個聯盟。 不太可能的政府會將右翼(Yamina、Yisrael Beytenu、New Hope)、中間(Yesh Atid、Blue and White)和左翼(工黨、Meretz)的政黨聚集在一起,並得到阿拉伯 Ra'am 黨(顯然來自外部)的支持聯合政府),在一個尋求使以色列擺脫兩年政治停滯的聯合政府中,帶領該國從冠狀病毒中恢復過來,並在一個嚴重分裂的國家中彌合社會裂痕。 Yamina 的七個席位中的六個席位為“變革集團”,數量為 57 MK。Ra'am 的四個 MK 將在 120 個成員的以色列議會中為其提供 61 個席位的支持,從而允許組建政府。 根據報導的協議,貝內特將擔任政府頭兩年的總理,拉皮德將在最後兩年接替他。 12頻道報導說,如果他被總理辦公室驅逐,內塔尼亞胡無意辭職,併計劃領導反對派,同時對亞米納人發動襲擊,並為沿意識形態路線打破聯盟做出了巨大努力。 2016 年 12 月 21 日,以色列總理本雅明·內塔尼亞胡(右)與當時的司法部長阿耶萊特·沙克德在以色列議會交談。(Yonatan Sindel/Flash90) 如果拉皮德不能在 6 月 2 日之前建立多數席位,以色列議會將有 21 天的時間就總理人選達成一致;否則,以色列將在兩年半後舉行第五次選舉。 週日早些時候,內塔尼亞胡做了最後的嘗試,試圖將貝內特和薩爾從拉皮德的陣營中撬開,並提出如果他們加入他的聯盟,就可以與他們輪換總理席位。Sa'ar 立即拒絕了這個提議,Bennett 在他的地址中指出他已經同意了,但這並不重要。 “我當然同意了。嘗試失敗了,因為沒有人相信承諾會兌現,”他說。 在 2019 年 11 月 24 日星期日的照片中,國防部長納夫塔利·貝內特和總理本雅明·內塔尼亞胡訪問了位於以色列-敘利亞邊境戈蘭高地的以色列軍事基地。(Atef Safadi/Pool via AP,文件) 內塔尼亞胡在 1996 年至 1999 年的較早任期之後自 2009 年開始執政,但自 2019 年以來在四次選舉中未能決定性獲勝,他的政治前途因三起刑事案件的起訴而變得複雜。 在前三場無結果的選舉之後,內塔尼亞胡終於說服藍白黨的甘茨在 2020 年年中加入他的權力分享政府。內塔尼亞胡本應擔任總理 18 個月,然後於 2021 年 11 月將該職位移交給甘茨。 然而,去年底,從第一天起就功能失調的利庫德集團和藍白政府因內塔尼亞胡拒絕通過為期兩年的總理任期而垮台雙方最初商定的預算。 政府垮台和以色列隨後在今年 3 月舉行的兩年內第四次選舉被廣泛視為內塔尼亞胡企圖避免履行與甘茨的交易,並通過利用以色列成功的疫苗接種運動和與幾個阿拉伯國家的正常化交易來鞏固自己的權力. 相反,選舉以以色列議會陷入與前三輪投票相同的僵局而告終。 Saying Netanyahu-led effort futile, Bennett opts for unity government with Lapid Yamina leader portrays move as only alternative to more elections; Netanyahu accuses him of scamming voters and claims right-wing MKs can still defect and torpedo ‘left-wing’ bid By TOI STAFFToday, 10:44 pm · Yamina party head Naftali Bennett gives a press conference at the Knesset on May 30, 2021. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90) Yamina leader Naftali Bennett announced Sunday that he would link up with Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid to form a coalition, promising a right-leaning unity government that will end over two years of political deadlock and oust Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, after 12 consecutive years in power. “The elections have proven there is no right-wing government under Netanyahu. There’s unity or fifth elections,” Bennett said in a nationally televised address, after weeks of vacillating between talks with Lapid and Netanyahu, in which it seemed he could wind up propping either leader. The announcement confirmed days of rumors that Bennett had opted for a rotational deal with Lapid that will place the right-wing party leader in the prime minister’s chair for the next two years, potentially setting in motion a sea change in Israeli politics that will see Netanyahu shunted from power by his former allies after repeatedly failing to cobble together enough support for his own coalition. In a rebuttal minutes after Bennett spoke, Netanyahu accused Bennett of being a serial flip-flopper responsible for the “scam of the century,” and claimed that he could indeed put together a right-wing government and could still thwart the Bennett-Lapid change bloc with enough defectors, calling on right-wing MKs to reject the move. “Instead of a left-wing government we can have a sure-fire right-wing one and without going to elections,” he said. He called a three-way rotation of the premiership that he had proposed with Bennett and New Hope’s Gideon Sa’ar “very unacceptable, unusual, and skewed… but better than a left-wing government.” In his address, calling Lapid “my friend,” Bennett vowed that a unity government was the best possible option for a country riven by repeated elections and engulfed by internal rifts and a political paralysis that he said had “sabotaged” the nation, denying that it would have a left-wing bent. “This is a political crisis that is unprecedented worldwide. We can go to fifth elections, sixth, 10th. We can take down the country’s walls, sheet by sheet, until the house falls on our heads,” he said, standing alone at a podium in a Knesset press room. “Or we can halt this insanity and take responsibility.” “No one will be asked to give up their ideology, but everyone will have to postpone the realization of some of their dreams. We will focus on what can be done, instead of arguing over what is impossible,” he added. Bennett repeatedly accused Netanyahu and his Likud party of lying and trying to scare his right-wing base. Jewish Home chair Naftali Bennett (L) speaks with Yesh Atid chair Yair Lapid in the Knesset plenum, March 11, 2014. (Miriam Alster/Flash90) “We are faced with a well-oiled machine that constantly spreads lies in order to instill fear in the hearts of the public,” he said. Under the emerging rotation deal between Yamina and Yesh Atid, Bennett will serve as prime minister first before handing the reins to Lapid. Joining the coalition will be a mix of right-wing, centrist and left-wing parties that have refused to continue joining governments led by Netanyahu, who is trial in three criminal cases. Yamina had been the largest party that still held open the possibility of working with Netanyahu, but Bennett repeatedly dismissed the possibility on Sunday, saying that “nobody believes him,” in reference to Netanyahu breaking political promises to other party leaders and wiggling out of a rotation agreement with Blue and White’s Benny Gantz earlier this year. Bennett’s announcement would appear to put the nail in the coffin of 12 consecutive years of Netanyahu rule. However, the possibility of lawmakers defecting or absenting themselves, combined with Israel’s fast-shifting current affairs, means that uncertainty will prevail until the Knesset approves a new government, with a vote not expected for several more days. The nascent coalition apparently has the support of 61 MKs in the 120-seat Knesset, so even a single defection could deprive it of a majority. And it still needs the support of the Islamist Ra’am party, which has yet to confirm if it will give the coalition the backing of its four Knesset members. Lapid’s mandate to form a government ends at midnight Wednesday. He has so far reached informal coalition agreements with Yisrael Beytenu, Meretz, and Labor, and is hoping to seal deals with Blue and White and New Hope in the next few days, though the coalition would likely only be voted on and sworn in next week. Likud and other parties opposed to the government are planning on using the intervening time to ratchet up pressure on right-wing MKs in a bid to get them to defect and kill the coalition before it gets going. In his own address, Netanyahu attempted to play on the concerns of right-wingers in Yamina and New Hope nervous about working with left-wing Labor and Meretz, calling it a “left-wing government” that is “a danger to the country.” “If it does occur, heaven forbid, think about who will be in the security cabinet: Yair Lapid, [Meretz head] Nitzan Horovitz, [Labor head] Meirav Michaeli, and [Meretz MK] Tamar Zandberg,” he said. “What impact will that have on Israel’s deterrent capability? How will we look to our enemies? What will they say in Iran and Gaza? What will they do in Iran and Gaza? What will they say in the corridors of the administration in Washington?” “Will Lapid, Zandberg, and company face down Iran?” he asked rhetorically. “They wholeheartedly support that dangerous nuclear agreement. They’ll fight Hamas? They depend on the votes of [Arab MKs Ahmad] Tibi and [Ayman] Odeh. They’ll defend our soldiers in The Hague?… Who’ll protect the settlements…? It’s a joke…” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemns rival Naftali Bennett’s newly declared bid to build a unity government with Yair Lapid that would end his 12 years as prime minister, May 30, 2021. (Screenshot) As the two spoke, hundreds of activists rallied outside the Tel Aviv home of Yamina No. 2 Ayelet Shaked, with competing camps seeking to convince Yamina MKs to rebel and torpedo the plans, or to push ahead with the change bloc government. Hours earlier, Yamina released a statement saying that the party’s MKs had “backed Bennett’s plans to form a government and prevent fifth elections,” after Bennett updated them on his moves. Yamina MK Amichai Chikli, who has vowed not to join a Lapid coalition, was not in attendance, meaning the decision was backed by six of the seven Yamina lawmakers, including Bennett and Shaked. In his address, Bennett called the decision to form a unity government “the most complicated one in my life,” but said he had made peace with it. He repeatedly played up the right-wing bona fides of the nascent coalition, which will also include the hawkish Yisrael Beytenu party, and asked other factions to join in as well. “The truth is that this will be a slightly more right-wing government than the current one,” he said, noting that the left-leaning parties had made “difficult concessions” in making him prime minister and Sa’ar justice minister. “We have not budged from our values. This is not a government that will disengage [from settlements,] will not give back lands, and also won’t be afraid to carry out military operations when needed. The political context won’t stop us.” Netanyahu claimed that Bennett had lied to his voters, saying that none of them would have cast votes for him had they known he would join Lapid, and portrayed him as a political opportunist hell bent on power. “He doesn’t want elections because he knows he’ll be erased, he wont cross the threshold,” Netanyahu said. “He only cares about himself. He wants to be prime minister for two years, one is not enough.” He claimed that Knesset members had told him they would defect and help prop up a Netanyahu and Bennett-led rotation government, if only Bennett would sign on, and urged those MKs to continue opposing the move. “Don’t cheat the public who supported you, and don’t cheat yourselves… If you’re a right-winger, you don’t vote for a left-wing government. And if you vote for a left-wing government, you are not a right-winger,” he said. Shortly after the speeches, Yesh Atid announced that talks with Yamina would restart Sunday evening. Lapid, who currently holds the mandate to form a government, is reportedly planning to visit President Reuven Rivlin on Monday to inform him he has succeeded in cobbling together a coalition. The unlikely government would bring together parties from the right (Yamina, Yisrael Beytenu, New Hope), center (Yesh Atid, Blue and White) and left (Labor, Meretz), with support from the Arab Ra’am party (apparently from outside the coalition), in a unity government that would seek to extricate Israel from two years of political stagnation, spearhead the country’s recovery from coronavirus and heal societal rifts in a deeply divided nation. The “change bloc,” with six of Yamina’s seven seats, numbers 57 MKs. Ra’am’s four MKs would hand it 61-seat support in the 120-member Knesset, allowing a government to be formed. Under the reported deal, Bennett would serve as prime minister for the government’s first two years, with Lapid replacing him for the final two. Channel 12 reported that should he be ousted from the Prime Minister’s Office, Netanyahu has no intention of resigning, and plans to lead the opposition while engaging in attacks against Yamina and intense efforts to break up the coalition along ideological lines. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, speaks with then Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked in the Knesset, December 21, 2016. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90) If Lapid cannot build a majority by June 2, the Knesset would have 21 days to agree on a prime minister; otherwise, Israel would head to its fifth elections in two and a half years. Earlier Sunday, Netanyahu made a last-ditch attempt to pry Bennett and Sa’ar away from Lapid’s bloc, offering to rotate the prime minister’s seat with them if they joined him in a coalition. Sa’ar rejected the offer immediately, and Bennett noted in his address that he had okayed it, but it did not matter. “Of course I gave my consent. The attempt failed because no one believed that the promises would be kept,” he said. In this Sunday, November 24, 2019 photo, Defense Minister Naftali Bennett and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visit an Israeli army base in the Golan Heights, on the Israeli-Syrian border. (Atef Safadi/Pool via AP, File) Netanyahu has been in power since 2009, after an earlier term from 1996 to 1999, but failed to win decisively in four elections since 2019, and his political future has been complicated by his indictment in three criminal cases. After the first three inconclusive elections, Netanyahu finally convinced Blue and White’s Gantz to join him in a power-sharing government in mid-2020. Netanyahu was to have served as prime minister for 18 months before handing the position over to Gantz in November 2021. However, late last year Likud and Blue and White’s government, dysfunctional since day one, fell apart over Netanyahu’s refusal to pass a two-year budget as had originally been agreed on between the sides. The government’s collapse and Israel’s subsequent fourth election in two years this past March was widely seen as an attempt by Netanyahu to avoid honoring his deal with Gantz and to cement his hold on power by capitalizing on Israel’s successful vaccination campaign and normalization deals with several Arab countries. Instead, the election ended with the Knesset mired in the same gridlock that followed the previous three votes. 以色列正在進入內塔尼亞胡後時代嗎?- 分析 一些人需要時間來適應沒有內塔尼亞胡擔任總理的以色列。 作者:HERB KEINON 2021 年 5 月 30 日 21:57 2020 年 3 月 3 日,以色列總理本雅明·內塔尼亞胡在他位於特拉維夫的利庫德集團總部宣布退出民意調查後,向支持者揮手致意。 (圖片來源:AMIR COHEN - 路透社) 廣告 隨著納夫塔利·貝內特 (Naftali Bennett) 在周日晚上戲劇性地宣布他打算加入亞伊爾·拉皮德( Yair Lapid ) 政府並輪換擔任總理,該國距離內塔尼亞胡時代的終結又近了一步。 在本雅明·內塔尼亞胡第二次成為總理之後的 12 年零 55 天,在他在總理辦公室坐了 15 年零 73 天之後,每個人都知道的那一天會在某個時候到來——但很多人都想知道如果他們真的會看到——即將到來:沒有內塔尼亞胡掌舵的以色列。 內塔尼亞胡長期以來一直是這里政治格局的一部分,擔任總理已經很長時間了,人們需要一段時間才能習慣他不會做主的想法,他的男中音他不會發表演講,也不會決定政策。 一些人需要時間來適應沒有內塔尼亞胡擔任總理的以色列。 但他們會調整,以色列會繼續前進,關於沒有人是不可替代的格言肯定會成真。為什麼?因為以色列不僅僅是它的領導者,無論他是一個多麼有統治力的領導者,或者他留下的足蹟有多深。而且,因為能夠領導這個國家的人不止一個。 貝內特為什麼要這樣做,許多人都在問自己,尤其是在他明確承諾不會做他正在做的事情的競選活動之後:讓拉皮德組建政府,坐在拉皮德擔任總理的政府中,並擔任總理他自己,儘管他只帶來了六個以色列議會席位。 他的另一個承諾——確保不會舉行第五次選舉——他正在兌現。 但他的動機是什麼?他採取這一步是因為他認為這符合國家的最大利益嗎?或者,正如內塔尼亞胡週日晚上的回應那樣,他這樣做是因為盲目的個人野心,還是因為他個人有很多收穫?也就是說,作為總理,這份工作——如果這取決於他在之前任何一次選舉中獲得的票數——他將遙不可及。 然而,關於 Bennett 動機的問題並不是一個二元的問題,也不應該用非此即彼的框架來表述。貝內特這樣做是因為他真誠地相信這是為了國家的利益,而第五次選舉可能會導致第六次甚至第七次選舉,這將是一場災難,他這樣做是因為他將成為總理部長。 這兩個原因並不矛盾,人們也不僅僅被一種動機所驅動:大腦可以容納許多不同的原因和動機。 如果確實,貝內特的舉動獲得了成功,並且如果沒有任何無法預料的行動能夠阻止反內塔尼亞胡聯盟的合併,那麼值得讚揚的人就是耶什·阿迪德的無禮。 在競選期間和之後;當內塔尼亞胡獲得組建政府的授權以及拉皮德本人何時獲得該授權;當看起來拉皮德即將組建政府時,當加沙危機使這個想法脫軌時;拉皮德默默地堅持著,沒有過度興奮,也沒有發表誇張的言論。 他還表現出一定程度的政治寬宏大量,這在這些地區是罕見的——在 3 月選舉後不久——他讓貝內特在輪換安排中第一次向總理提供機會,儘管後者在民意調查中表現不佳。 拉皮德的這一舉動表明,他設定的目標——除掉內塔尼亞胡——勝過了他的個人野心,而且他願意為了他認為的集體利益而犧牲個人野心。 這不是他第一次以這種方式行事。2019 年 3 月,他讓路給本尼·甘茨 (Benny Gantz),讓他領導藍白黨。 多年來,這裡的政府只有一個人:內塔尼亞胡。如果這個新政府成立,將是大約三個:拉皮德、貝內特和新希望領導人吉迪恩薩爾。 公眾需要一些時間來適應這一點,而且還需要拉皮德最近幾個月表現出的大量慷慨——甚至是政治上的無私——才能讓它發揮作用。 Is Israel entering the post-Netanyahu era? - analysis It will take time for some to adjust to an Israel without Netanyahu as prime minister. By HERB KEINON MAY 30, 2021 21:57 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu waves to supporters following the announcement of exit polls in Israel's election at his Likud party headquarters in Tel Aviv on March 3, 2020. (photo credit: AMIR COHEN - REUTERS) Advertisement With Naftali Bennett’s dramatic announcement on Sunday night of his intention to join Yair Lapid’s government and rotate as prime minister, the country moved one step closer to the end of the Netanyahu era. Twelve years and 55 days after Benjamin Netanyahu became prime minister for the second time, and after a total of 15 years and 73 days of him sitting in the Prime Minister’s Office, the day that everyone knew would come at some point – but which many wondered if they ever would really see – is just around the corner: Israel without Netanyahu at the helm. Netanyahu has been a part of the political landscape here for so long, has been the prime minister for so long, that it will take some time for people to get used to the very notion that he will not be calling the shots, his baritone voice won’t be giving speeches, and he won’t be determining policy. It will take time for some to adjust to an Israel without Netanyahu as prime minister. But they will adjust, and Israel will move on, and that aphorism about no one being irreplaceable will surely come true. Why? Because Israel is more than its leader, no matter how dominant a leader he may be, or how deep are the footprints that he leaves. And also, because there is more than just one man capable of leading this country. Why is Bennett doing this, many are asking themselves, especially after the campaign in which he promised explicitly not to do exactly what he’s doing: enable Lapid to form a government, sit in a government with Lapid as prime minister, and serve as prime minister himself, even though he is bringing to the table only six Knesset seats. Another of his promises – ensuring that there won’t be a fifth election – he is keeping. But what are his motivations? Is he taking this step because he believes it is what is in the best interest of the country? Or, as Netanyahu railed Sunday night in response, is he doing this because of blind personal ambition and because he has much to gain personally; namely, being prime minister, a job that – if it were dependent on the number of votes he garnered in any of the previous elections – would be far from his grasp. The question about Bennett’s motivations, however, is not a binary one, and it should not be phrased in an either/or framework. Bennett is doing this both because he sincerely believes that it is for the good of the country and that a fifth election, which could then lead to a sixth and even seventh, would be a disaster, and he is doing this because he will become prime minister. The two reasons are not contradictory, and people are not motored by just one motivation: The mind has room for many different reasons and motivations. If, indeed, Bennett’s move succeeds, and if there is not some unforeseen snafu that will keep the anti-Netanyahu coalition from coalescing, then the man who deserves the credit is Yesh Atid’s Lapid. During the campaign and after it; when Netanyahu had the mandate to form the government and when Lapid himself received it; when it looked as if Lapid was about to form a government, and when the crisis in Gaza derailed that idea; Lapid quietly soldiered on, without getting overly excited, without making bombastic statements. He also demonstrated a degree of political magnanimity that is rare in these parts when – soon after the elections in March – he offered Bennett the first shot at prime minister in a rotation arrangement, despite the latter's poor showing at the polls. Lapid demonstrated with this act that the goal he set – removing Netanyahu – trumped his personal ambitions, and that he was willing to sacrifice personal ambitions for what he viewed as the collective good. This wasn’t the first time he acted in this manner. In March 2019 he yielded the right of way to Benny Gantz and gave him the leadership of the Blue and White Party. For years, the government here has been about one person: Netanyahu. If this new government comes into existence, it will be about three: Lapid, Bennett and New Hope leader Gideon Sa’ar. It’s going to take the public some time to get used to that, and it is also going to take a great deal of that magnanimity – even political selflessness – that Lapid demonstrated in recent months, to make it work. 內塔尼亞胡將貝內特-拉皮德聯盟與敘利亞、伊朗政治進行比較 內塔尼亞胡表示,貝內特是為自己的個人利益而行事,他知道如果再舉行一次選舉,他的政治生涯就會結束。 通過GIL HOFFMAN 2021 年 5 月 30 日 21:53 週日,在亞米納領導人納夫塔利·貝內特宣布他將與耶什·阿蒂德領導人亞伊爾·拉皮德組建政府後,總理本傑明·內塔尼亞胡將預期的貝內特-拉皮德聯盟與敘利亞和伊朗的政治進行了比較。 貝內特在聲明中指責內塔尼亞胡領導以色列走向民族自殺。 內塔尼亞胡說,如果貝內特本來允許拉皮德組建政府的任務在周三晚期滿,那麼所謂的“變革陣營”陣營的MK將會加入並促成右翼政府的組建。他說貝內特是為了自己的個人利益而行事,他知道如果再舉行一次選舉,他的政治生涯就會結束。 內塔尼亞胡說,貝內特正在組建的不是一個聯合政府,而是一個會損害以色列威懾力的軟弱政府。他將其與敘利亞和伊朗政治中正在發生的事情進行了比較。 “這會對以色列的威懾產生什麼影響?我們將如何看待敵人?他們將在伊朗或加沙做什麼?他們會在華盛頓政府的走廊上說什麼?這個政府會反對伊朗嗎?這個政府支持危險的核協議,”內塔尼亞胡說。 內塔尼亞胡指責貝內特散佈謊言和誤導公眾。“他在選舉前說他不會讓拉皮德成為總理,即使是輪換模式……他說他永遠不會讓拉皮德成為總理,因為他是右翼,這違背了他的價值觀。” 內塔尼亞胡在周日晚上結束演講時說:“如果他們知道你會做什麼,就不會投票給你,”稱貝內特的舉動是“世紀騙局”。 週五,內塔尼亞胡在社交媒體上發布了一段三分鐘的視頻,稱利庫德集團和亞米納的談判代表達成了他所謂的影響深遠的協議,但貝內特拒絕簽署。他說,該協議將創建一個由 59 個 MK 組成的聯盟,比所需的少兩個。貝內特拒絕成立少數派政府,並敦促內塔尼亞胡找到兩名叛逃者。 內塔尼亞胡指責貝內特拒絕右翼政府,而是尋求成為“左翼政府”的總理。 “納夫塔利·貝內特正在向左跑,”內塔尼亞胡當時說。“這違背了他們的所有原則和承諾,以及保障我們國家未來所需的一切。” Netanyahu compares Bennett-Lapid coalition to Syria, Iran politics Netanyahu said Bennett was acting for his own personal interest, knowing that if there would be another election, his political career would be over. By GIL HOFFMAN MAY 30, 2021 21:53 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu compared the expected Bennett-Lapid coalition to politics in Syria and Iran on Sunday after Yamina leader Naftali Bennett announced that he will form a government with Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid. In his announcement, Bennett accused Netanyahu of leading Israel to national suicide. Netanyahu said that if Bennett would have allowed Lapid's mandate to form a government expire on Wednesday night, MKs from the so-called "Change Bloc" camp would have joined and enabled the formation of a right-wing government. He said Bennett was acting for his own personal interest, knowing that if there would be another election, his political career would be over. Netanyahu said what Bennett was forming was not a unity government but a weak government that would harm Israel's deterrence. He compared it to what is happening in politics in Syria and Iran. “What will this do to Israeli deterrence? How will we look in the eyes of our enemies? What will they do in Iran or Gaza? What will they say in the corridors of the administration in Washington? This government will stand against Iran? This government supports the dangerous nuclear deal,” Netanyahu said. Netanyahu blamed Bennett for spreading lies and misleading the public. "He said prior to the elections that he would not allow Lapid to become prime minister, even in a rotation model … he said he would never make Lapid prime minister because he is right-wing, and it goes against his values." Concluding his speech on Sunday evening, Netanyahu said: "No one would have voted for you if they knew what you would do," calling Bennett's move "the deception of the century." On Friday in a three-minute video released on social media, Netanyahu said Likud and Yamina negotiators had reached what he called a far-reaching agreement, but Bennett refused to sign it. He said the agreement would create a coalition of 59 MKs, two less than is needed. Bennett has declined to form a minority government and urged Netanyahu to find two defectors. Netanyahu accused Bennett of rejecting a right-wing government and instead seeking to become prime minister of a “government of the Left.” “Naftali Bennett is running to the Left,” Netanyahu said at the time. “This goes against all their principles and promises and everything necessary to guarantee the future of our state.”

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