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2021.04.20 國際新聞導讀-伊朗反抗運動崛起、伊拉克什葉派民兵對準土耳其佔領之伊拉克北部基地、美伊維也納核武協議似有重大進展、伊朗無人機產業大放異彩、敘利亞總統大選、伊朗與沙烏地在伊拉克總理調解下進行會晤

外交官的國際新聞導覽及中東中亞的歷史故事 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia
2021-04-19
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2021.04.20 國際新聞導讀-伊朗反抗運動崛起、伊拉克什葉派民兵對準土耳其佔領之伊拉克北部基地、美伊維也納核武協議似有重大進展、伊朗無人機產業大放異彩、敘利亞總統大選、伊朗與沙烏地在伊拉克總理調解下進行會晤 伊朗政權有多安全? 競選活動中最公開的面孔是雷扎·帕拉維(Reza Pahlavi),他是被推翻的沙阿(Shah)的兒子,也是伊朗的最後繼承人,在1979年君主制被推翻之前。 通過NEVILLE櫃員 2021年4月18日20:30 伊朗最高領導人阿亞圖拉·阿里·哈梅內伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)將於2021年2月22日在伊朗德黑蘭會見專家會議成員。 (照片來源:官方KHAMENEI網站/通過路透社進行的淘汰) 廣告 新的迅速增長的民眾反叛正在影響伊朗政權。3月11日,以英語和波斯語在線發布了由640名知名伊朗人簽署的聲明,其中有些人生活在伊朗境內,有些人在伊朗境外,帶有#No2IslamicRepublic的標籤。它標誌著新的反政府運動的開始。 建國聲明呼籲推翻伊朗政權,並將其描述為“自由,繁榮,民主,進步和人權道路上的最大障礙。” 簽署者敦促伊朗激進分子團結起來,將#2IslamicRepublic作為其國家團結的目標,並“發起大規模運動,將伊朗從這個黑暗和腐敗的政權中清除出去。” 自1979年伊斯蘭共和國成立以來,許多普通的伊朗人在社交媒體上發布了被謀殺和處決的持不同政見者和政治犯的圖像,以及其他社會和文化壓迫的例子。 自啟動以來,參加者的人數猛增至數万,該運動成功地團結了該國以前未能合併的反對派分子。隨著簽署方數量的迅速增加,很明顯它們來自伊朗社會的許多領域:政治和民權活動家,藝術家,運動員,作家和大學教授,等等。 電影製片人穆罕默德·努里扎德(Mohammad Nourizad)是最著名的電影人之一,他因對最高領導人阿亞圖拉·阿里·哈梅內伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)的直言不諱的批評而在監獄中度過了多年。他與五位爭取民主和婦女權利的女性倡導者一起加入,他們在簽署公開信要求哈梅內伊辭職後於2019年被捕入獄。 #No2IslamicRepublic競選活動得到了許多國外伊朗人的支持,這些人在伊朗家喻戶曉,包括歌手,作曲家,獲獎電影製片人,歷史學家,女權主義社會學家,婦女權利活動家,甚至安省前內閣大臣里扎·莫里迪(Reza Moridi)。 競選活動中最公開的面孔是雷扎·帕拉維(Reza Pahlavi),他是被推翻的沙阿的兒子,也是伊朗的最後繼承人,在1979年君主制被推翻之前。現年60歲的帕拉維(Pahlavi)領導伊朗自由選舉全國委員會,一直是流亡政府。就在最近,他宣布了組織目標的重大變化。 撇開他先前重建君主立憲制的意圖,帕拉維現在支持建立民主共和國來取代革命政權。這意味著,一個運營自己的流亡政府的對立機構,一個自稱為伊朗國家抵抗委員會(NCRI)的組織,已經能夠在#No2IslamicRepublic運動的庇護下與巴列維走到一起。 從該政權的角度來看,這場運動不可能在更不方便的時候浮出水面。伊朗正與美國就重啟核協議進行一場微妙的外交撲克遊戲。伊朗是要同意遵守原始交易的條款,而這是美國要求重返談判桌的代價,還是華盛頓要取消特朗普時代(伊朗的先決條件)施加的所有製裁?伊朗內部的全面公開叛亂,不僅針對政府,而且針對共和國本身,都將嚴重削弱該政權的討價還價地位。 由於原定於6月18日舉行新的伊朗總統選舉,因此局勢變得更加不穩定,而且激進分子正抓住機會譴責強加於該國的虛假民主。伊朗人知道,未經最高領導人的批准,該州什麼都不會發生,而哈桑·魯哈尼(Hassan Rouhani)擔任總統只是因為它適合阿亞圖拉·哈梅內伊(Ayatollah Khamenei)在2013年和2017年再次讓他成為“溫和”的人物。 適度可能與該政權打算如何應對當前的起義相去甚遠。目前的跡象表明,強硬派可能會接替現任最後一任的魯哈尼。與伊朗的所有選舉一樣,潛在的候選人必須由監護人委員會進行審查,監護人委員會的成員由哈梅內伊直接或間接任命,據報導,最高領導人公開表示,該國應由一個相對年輕且思想上比較堅決的人領導。一線總裁。 伊斯蘭共和國目前比幾十年來更加脆弱。前總統唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)實行了多年的“最大壓力”政策,成功地在經濟和政治上削弱了該政權。然而,喬·拜登(Joe Biden)總統決心要復活前總統巴拉克·奧巴馬(Barack Obama)尋求與伊朗接觸的失敗政策,他不太可能為這次以真正的民主代替僵化,不受歡迎,當前強加給伊朗人民的神權統治失敗。 如果拜登確實拒絕伊朗的民眾起義,那將是歷史重演的案例。 2009年伊朗總統穆罕默德·艾哈邁迪內賈德(Mahmoud Ahmadinejad)受專利操縱的連任引發了民眾憤怒的高漲。公眾認為,該民意測驗受到了操縱選舉和選舉舞弊的影響。普通的伊朗人以其成千上萬的“綠色運動”走上街頭。 奧巴馬政府-渴望或可能決心與伊朗交戰,而不論其代價如何-完全沒有採取任何行動來支持抗議活動。ayatollahs接受的信息是,無論他們採取什麼措施消滅國內反對派,美國都將視線移開。結果,綠色運動遭到殘酷鎮壓,其領導人被監禁或被罷免。 民眾普遍對伊朗革命政權的不滿情緒從地下浮出水面,並且還有其他機會(例如在2019年和2020年的民眾起義中)得到認可,但美國和任何西方國家都沒有提供過公開的支持。這種勉強是可以理解的。過去在鼓勵或支持政權更迭方面的努力,甚至在公然反民主的國家,也沒有取得明顯成功的記錄。 試圖推翻一個由政權和軍隊控制的既定政權,是一項艱鉅的任務,也許是愚蠢的。但是,這項#No2IslamicRepublic競選活動正是有這個目標。 除非或直到看起來似乎成功,否則經驗告訴我們,外界的支持對它的期望很小。 How secure is the Iranian regime? The most public face of the campaign is Reza Pahlavi, the deposed Shah’s son and Iran’s last heir to the throne before the overthrow of the monarchy in 1979. By NEVILLE TELLER APRIL 18, 2021 20:30 Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei meets members of the Assembly of Experts in Tehran, Iran February 22, 2021. (photo credit: OFFICIAL KHAMENEI WEBSITE/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS) A new and rapidly growing popular rebellion is affecting the Iranian regime. On March 11, a statement signed by 640 eminent Iranians, some living within and some outside Iran, was posted on-line in English and Persian with the hashtag #No2IslamicRepublic. It marked the launch of a new anti-government movement. The founding statement called for the overthrow of the Iranian regime, describing it as “the biggest obstacle in the way of freedom, prosperity, democracy, progress, and human rights.” The signatories urged Iranian activists to unite, to make #No2IslamicRepublic their national solidarity objective, and “to create a massive movement that can purge Iran from this dark and corrupt regime.” Many ordinary Iranians posted images on social media of murdered and executed dissidents and political prisoners, along with other examples of social and cultural oppression by the Islamic Republic since its establishment in 1979. Since the launch, the number of adherents has mushroomed into the tens of thousands, and the campaign has succeeded in uniting opposition elements outside the country that have previously failed to coalesce. As the number of signatories rapidly rose, it became clear that they were drawn from many sectors of Iranian society: political and civil rights activists, artists, athletes, authors and university professors, among others. One of the best-known is filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad, who has spent years in and out of prison for his outspoken criticisms of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He was joined by five female advocates for democracy and women’s rights who were arrested and jailed in 2019 after signing an open letter calling for Khamenei’s resignation. The #No2IslamicRepublic campaign is supported by many Iranians abroad who are household names in Iran – singers, a composer, an award-winning filmmaker, a historian, a feminist sociologist, women’s rights activists and even former Ontario cabinet minister Reza Moridi. The most public face of the campaign is Reza Pahlavi, the deposed Shah’s son and Iran’s last heir to the throne before the overthrow of the monarchy in 1979. The 60-year-old Pahlavi heads the National Council of Iran for Free Elections, which has been acting as a government-in-exile. Just recently he announced a major change in the objective of his organization. Setting aside his previous intention to reestablish a constitutional monarchy, Pahlavi now supports the establishment of a democratic republic to replace the revolutionary regime. This has meant that a rival body operating its own government-in-exile, an organization calling itself The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), has been able to come together with Pahlavi under the umbrella of the #No2IslamicRepublic campaign. From the regime’s point of view, the campaign could not have surfaced at a more inconvenient time. Iran is in the midst of a delicate diplomatic game of poker with the US over reopening the nuclear deal. Is Iran going to agree to observe the terms of the original deal, which the US demands as the price of returning to the table, or is Washington going to lift all the sanctions imposed during the Trump era, which is Iran’s precondition? A full-scale public rebellion inside Iran, not only against the government but against the republic itself, would severely weaken the regime’s bargaining position. THE SITUATION is made even more unstable because new Iranian presidential elections are scheduled for June 18, and activists are seizing the opportunity to condemn the faux democracy that has been imposed on the country. Iranians know that nothing happens in the state without the approval of the supreme leader, and that Hassan Rouhani is president only because it suited Ayatollah Khamenei in 2013 and again in 2017 to have him as a “moderate” figurehead. Moderation may be far from how the regime intends to deal with the current insurrection. Present indications are that a military hard-liner is likely to succeed Rouhani, who is serving his final term. As with all elections in Iran, potential candidates must be vetted by the Guardians Council, whose members are directly and indirectly appointed by Khamenei, and the supreme leader is reported to have said publicly that the country should be led by a relatively young and ideologically hard-line president. The Islamic Republic is currently weaker than it has been for decades. Ex-president Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy, applied for years, succeeded in reducing the regime’s power, both economically and politically. Yet President Joe Biden, determined as he is to resurrect ex-president Barack Obama’s failed policy of seeking engagement with Iran, is unlikely to offer any support, overt or covert, to this latest effort to substitute a genuine democracy for the rigid, unpopular and failing theocracy currently imposed on the Iranian people. If Biden does turn his back on Iran’s popular uprising, it would be a case of history repeating itself. The patently manipulated 2009 reelection of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as Iranian president gave rise to an upsurge of popular anger. The public believed that the poll had been subject to vote rigging and election fraud. Ordinary Iranians took to the streets in their millions in what came to be known the “Green Movement.” The Obama administration – eager, perhaps determined, to engage with Iran regardless of the cost – did precisely nothing to support the protest. The message the ayatollahs took was that the US would look away no matter what they did to stamp out their domestic opposition. As a result, the Green Movement was ruthlessly suppressed, and its leaders were either imprisoned or eliminated. Widespread popular discontent with Iran’s revolutionary regime rumbles away below the surface, and there have been other opportunities – such as in the popular uprisings in 2019 and 2020 – to endorse it, but neither the US nor any Western nation has ever offered overt support. The reluctance is perhaps understandable. Past efforts at encouraging or supporting regime change, even in flagrantly anti-democratic countries, does not have a notably successful track record. To attempt the overthrow of an established regime that has all the engines of the state and the military under its control is a formidable, perhaps foolhardy, enterprise. Yet this #No2IslamicRepublic campaign has just that objective. Unless, or until, it seems to be succeeding, experience tells us that it can expect little by way of outside support. 核談判取得進展,臨時安排有可能-伊朗 歐盟最高外交官約瑟夫•博雷爾(Josep Borrell)週一表示,他援引在維也納會談中取得的進展,表示願意保留2015年協議。 由路透社 2021年4月19日17:34 在2021年3月15日獲得的這張照片中,伊朗革命衛隊海軍部隊的一個新“導彈城市”在伊朗的一個秘密地點看到了伊朗的導彈。 (照片來源:IRGC / WANA / HANDOUT VIA REUTERS) 廣告 伊朗官員周一表示,伊朗和世界大國在如何恢復後來被美國拋棄的2015年核協議方面取得了一些進展,臨時協議可能是爭取時間進行持久解決的一種方式。 德黑蘭和權力已經在維也納會議自四月初上下工夫,必須採取,觸及美國的制裁和伊朗最近的違規交易的步驟,帶回德黑蘭和華盛頓完全遵守該協議。 外交部發言人賽義德·哈蒂布扎德(Saeed Khatibzadeh)在德黑蘭舉行的每週一次新聞發布會上說:“我們走在正確的道路上,已經取得了一些進展,但這並不意味著維也納的談判已經進入最後階段。” 俄羅斯的聯合國核監督機構(IAEA)大使米哈伊爾·烏里揚諾夫(Mikhail Ulyanov)週一在Twitter上寫道:“實際的解決方案距離我們還很遙遠,但我們已經從通俗易懂的語言轉變為達成目標的具體步驟。” 美國總統喬·拜登(Joe Biden)的政府於1月份就職,承諾重新加入該協議。該國政府表示,準備撤消與該協議“不相符的所有製裁”,但並未說明具體含義。 伊朗的文書機構表示,除非前總統唐納德·特朗普在2018年放棄該協議後重新施加或增加的所有製裁都首先被廢除,否則它將不會恢復嚴格遵守2015年協議。 外交官說,雙方採取有序的步驟可能會提供解決方案,而伊朗官員告訴路透社,在維也納舉行的高額談判可能會達成一項臨時協議,為持久解決方案的外交空間。 一名伊朗官員說:“五月份的最後期限臨近了。近期在維也納討論的是一項臨時協議的主要內容,該協議將給各方更多的時間來解決複雜的技術問題。” 他提到伊朗以強硬路線統治的議會通過的一項法律,如果不解除制裁,伊朗政府有義務加強其核立場。 這項法律要求從2月21日起終止聯合國的短暫通知,但德黑蘭和IAEA同意將“必要的”監視保持三個月之久。 另一位伊朗官員說,如果就取消所有製裁的技術步驟達成政治協議,德黑蘭可能會暫停濃縮至20%的純度,以換取釋放在其他國家被凍結的伊朗資金。 伊朗表示,自2018年以來,在美國製裁制度下,韓國,伊拉克和中國等國家的200億美元石油收入被凍結。 伊朗第二名官員說:“釋放伊朗的資金是一個好的開始。臨時協議將使我們有時間進行對伊朗的所有製裁的解除。” 除了2018年將實施的製裁措施外,特朗普還增加了新的製裁措施,包括將伊朗的精銳革命衛隊歸類為恐怖組織,並將伊朗中央銀行列入涉嫌恐怖分子融資的黑名單中。 歐盟將大大節省2015年的交易 歐盟最高外交官約瑟夫•博雷爾(Josep Borrell)週一表示,他援引在維也納會談中取得的進展,表示願意保留2015年協議。 他說:“我認為雙方(伊朗和美國)之間確實有達成協議的誠意,這是個好消息。” “我認為雙方真的對達成協議感興趣,他們已經從一般性問題轉向更具針對性的問題,顯然,一方面是在解除制裁方面,另一方面是在核實施問題上。” 與此同時,自華盛頓於2018年退出以來,伊朗一直在超越交易對核活動的限制,最近將鈾濃縮提高到了20%的裂變純度,鈾被認為是高度濃縮的水平,是朝著炸彈級材料邁出的重要一步。 2015年的協議將濃縮純度水平限制在3.67%-適用於產生民用核能。 德黑蘭上週在德黑蘭指責以色列反對伊朗外交的大敵指責破壞該地點的爆炸後,於上週在其主要的納坦茲工廠對拜登重新達成交易的目標進行了濃縮,使其純度提高到60%。 德黑蘭一再否認尋求武器化濃縮的能力,但核爆炸所需的裂變純度約為90%,儘管西方情報部門和國際原子能機構認為它曾經有一個秘密原子彈計劃,但該計劃於2003年被擱置 Nuclear talks make some progress, interim arrangement possible -Iran The European Union's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said on Monday he saw a willingness to save the 2015 deal, citing progress at the talks in Vienna. By REUTERS APRIL 19, 2021 17:34 Iranian missiles are seen at a new "missile city" of Iran's Revolutionary Guards naval unit at an undisclosed location in Iran, in this picture obtained on March 15, 2021. (photo credit: IRGC/WANA/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS) Iran and world powers have made some progress on how to revive the 2015 nuclear accord later abandoned by the United States, and an interim deal could be a way to gain time for a lasting settlement, Iranian officials said on Monday. Tehran and the powers have been meeting in Vienna since early April to work on steps that must be taken, touching on U.S. sanctions and Iran's recent breaches of the deal, to bring back Tehran and Washington into full compliance with the accord. "We are on the right track and some progress has been made, but this does not mean that the talks in Vienna have reached the final stage," Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh told a weekly news conference in Tehran. "Practical solutions are still far away, but we have moved from general words to agreeing on specific steps towards the goal,” Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's ambassador to the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency (IAEA), wrote on Twitter on Monday. US President Joe Biden's administration, which took office in January pledging to rejoin the deal, has said it is ready to remove "all sanctions that are inconsistent" with the accord, but not spelled out which measures it means. Iran's clerical establishment has said it will not return to strict observance of the 2015 agreement unless all sanctions reimposed or added by former President Donald Trump after he ditched the accord in 2018 are rescinded first. Diplomats say sequenced steps by each side may offer a solution, while Iranian officials told Reuters the high-stakes talks in Vienna might yield an interim deal to give space to diplomacy on a lasting settlement. "The May deadline is approaching…What is being discussed in Vienna for the near term is the main outlines of an interim deal to give all sides more time to resolve complicated technical issues," said an Iranian official. He referred to a law passed by Iran's hardline-dominated parliament that obliges the government to harden its nuclear stance if sanctions are not lifted. The law mandated an end to short-notice U.N. nuclear inspections from Feb. 21, but Tehran and the IAEA agreed to keep up "necessary" monitoring for up to three months. Another Iranian official said that if a political agreement was reached on technical steps to remove all sanctions, Tehran might suspend enrichment to 20% purity in return for a release of blocked Iranian funds in other countries. Iran says $20 billion of its oil revenue has been frozen in countries like South Korea, Iraq and China under the U.S. sanctions regime since 2018. "Unblocking Iran's funds is a good start. An interim deal will give us time to work on removal of all sanctions on Iran," the second Iranian official said. On top of sanctions reimposed in 2018, Trump added new ones, including classifying Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist group and blacklisting Iran's Central Bank for alleged terrorist financing. EU SEES GOODWILL TO SAVE 2015 DEAL The European Union's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said on Monday he saw a willingness to save the 2015 deal, citing progress at the talks in Vienna. "I think that there is real goodwill among both parties (Iran and the United States) to reach an agreement, and that's good news," he said. "I think that both parties are really interested in reaching an agreement, and they have been moving from general to more focused issues, which are clearly, on one side sanction-lifting, and on the other side, nuclear implementation issues." At the same time, Iran has been overstepping the deal's limits on nuclear activity since Washington withdrew in 2018, recently raising uranium enrichment to 20% fissile purity, a level where uranium is considered to be highly enriched and a significant step towards bomb-grade material. The 2015 pact had capped the level of enrichment purity at 3.67% - suitable for generating civilian nuclear energy. Complicating Biden's objective to rejoin the deal, Tehran last week launched enrichment to 60% purity at its main Natanz plant after a damaging blast at the site that Tehran blamed on sabotage by arch-foe Israel, which opposes diplomacy with Iran. Around 90% fissile purity is needed for a nuclear explosive, Tehran has repeatedly denied seeking to weaponize enrichment, though Western intelligence services and the IAEA believe it once had a covert atom bomb program that was shelved in 2003 俄羅斯:關於核協議的談判已進入起草階段 俄羅斯官員米哈伊爾·烏里揚諾夫(Mikhail Ulyanov)報導,儘管為實現共同目標已採取了重要步驟,但在經過兩週的維也納核協議談判之後,實際解決方案仍相距甚遠。 通過MAARIV ONLINE 2021年4月19日14:10 2021年3月1日,奧地利維也納爆發冠狀病毒病(COVID-19),在理事會召開會議之前,伊朗國旗在國際原子能機構(IAEA)總部前揮舞。 (照片來源:REUTERS / LISI NIESNER / FILE PHOTO) 俄羅斯駐國際原子能機構大使米哈伊爾·烏里揚諾夫週一報導說,在維也納舉行的核協議談判取得了重大進展。 “總結兩週討論的結果,我們可以非常滿意地註意到談判已經進入起草階段。” 烏里揚諾夫在推特上的聲明中寫道。 這位俄羅斯高級官員補充說:“實際的解決方案還很遙遠,但是我們已經從一般性對話轉變為就實現目標必須採取的具體步驟達成協議。” 伊朗副外長阿巴斯(Abbas Araghchi)上週六在維也納舉行的核談判結束時發表了上述聲明。根據他的聲明,要繼續進行談判並非易事,而且今後還會有更嚴重的爭端,但是有可能開始就協議草案進行工作。 伊朗最近與維也納的大國代表舉行了會談,以 恢復2015年的協議,該協議於三年前被美國前總統唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)放棄。 同時,上週記錄了另一起違反核協議的事件。根據伊朗媒體的報導,總統哈桑·魯哈尼(Hassan Rouhani)已下令使用先進的離心機進行濃縮樣品的生產,此前在2015年的協議中已禁止使用。這是在核談判之後向美國發出的明顯信息,表明只要美國繼續實施制裁,伊朗將繼續違反該協議。 Russia: Negotiations on Nuclear Agreement have reached drafting stage While significant steps have been taken toward meeting shared goals, practical solutions remain far off after two weeks of Vienna nuclear agreement talks, reports Russian official Mikhail Ulyanov. By MAARIV ONLINE APRIL 19, 2021 14:10 The Iranian flag waves in front of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) headquarters, before the beginning of a board of governors meeting, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Vienna, Austria, March 1, 2021. (photo credit: REUTERS/LISI NIESNER/FILE PHOTO) Significant progress has been made with regard to the nuclear deal talks taking place in Vienna, Russia's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mikhail Ulyanov, reported on Monday. "To summarize the outcome of two weeks of discussions, we can note with great satisfaction that the negotiations have reached the drafting stage." Ulyanov wrote in a statement on Twitter. The senior Russian official added that "practical solutions are still far away, but we have moved from general conversation to agreeing on the specific steps we must take to meet our goal." The remarks continued following the statement by Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi last Saturday at the conclusion of the nuclear talks in Vienna: "A new understanding seems to be emerging and there is agreement among all the countries as to the final destination." According to his statement, the continuation of the talks will not be easy and there are more serious disputes ahead, but it is possible to start working on a draft agreement. Iran has recently held talks with representatives of the superpowers in Vienna, in order to return to the 2015 agreement, which was abandoned about three years ago by former US President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, another violation of the nuclear agreement was recorded last week. According to Iranian media reports, President Hassan Rouhani has ordered the use of advanced centrifuge for enrichment samples, something that had previously been banned in the 2015 agreement. This is an apparent message to the United States in the wake of nuclear talks, suggesting that Iran will continue to violate the agreement so long as US sanctions remain in place. 伊朗支持的部隊可能瞄準了土耳其在伊拉克的基地 12月,土耳其軍隊在Bashiqa遭到ISIS襲擊而受傷。 由SETH J.FRANTZMAN 2021年4月18日13:49 在伊朗未公開地點的伊朗革命衛隊海軍新“導彈基地”地下看到了伊朗的導彈。 (照片來源:IRGC / WANA / HANDOUT VIA REUTERS) 廣告 上週,一個在伊拉克的秘密土耳其基地遭到火箭炮襲擊。土耳其的阿納多盧新聞代表政府的敘述,稱在伊拉克北部由伊朗支持的Hashd al-Sha'abi或PMU控制的地區發現了用於發動襲擊的火箭墊 。 伊拉克北部尼尼微省副省長拉法阿特·斯莫(Rafaat Smo)週五對伊拉克庫爾德人RUDWA新聞社說:“在Hashd Brigade 30領土的Shalalat和Baaweza地區之間發現了針對土耳其軍事基地的導彈發射台,” 。 報告指出,上週三,伊拉克北部城鎮巴什卡的一個土耳其基地發射了三枚火箭彈。阿納多盧說:“一枚火箭彈降落在基地內,使一名土耳其士兵mar難,另外兩枚火箭彈降落在附近的一個村莊,炸傷了兩名平民,其中包括一名十二歲的女孩。” 土耳其 媒體現在將矛頭指向PMU,並將其與伊朗聯繫起來。 近幾個月來,伊拉克和土耳其的親伊朗組織之間的緊張關係加劇了。他們實際上可以追溯到2015年,當時巴格達抱怨安卡拉在伊拉克北部建立新基地。自1990年代以來,土耳其一直在伊拉克聲稱與庫爾德工人黨戰鬥。土耳其情報部門也曾多次滲透伊拉克。2003年,土耳其特工在基爾庫克的所謂“引擎蓋事件”中被拘留。 土耳其也與特拉法夫的土庫曼關係密切。從歷史上看,它與摩蘇爾(Mosul)和尼尼微(Nineveh)曾有過密切的關係。土耳其與埃爾比勒和那裡的庫爾德當局也有密切的聯繫。 12月,土耳其軍隊在Bashiqa遭到ISIS襲擊而受傷。當時的土耳其正在訓練一些當地人從ISIS手中奪回摩蘇爾。這個秘密基地是由山下水泥牆環繞的複合物,最終包括數個小型前哨基地,那裡有裝甲車和射擊位置。他們在2016年協助反擊ISIS迫擊砲,並支持庫爾德·佩什梅加(Kurdish Peshmerga)當地職位。 摩蘇爾解放後,ISIS在伊拉克大敗,土耳其保持了據點。自2018年以來,它威脅要入侵辛加爾(Sinjar),該地區曾由庫爾德·佩什梅加(Kurdish Peshmerga)佔領,但現在由伊拉克聯邦部隊和PMU佔領。土耳其稱,庫爾德工人黨在辛賈爾開展業務。該地區是Yazidis的所在地,土耳其進行了多次空襲。 2021年2月,土耳其就涉嫌侵犯伊拉克主權的言論傳喚伊朗大使。消息人士說:“土耳其外交部召集穆罕默德·法拉茲曼大使,對該國拒絕伊朗駐巴格達特使提出的指控,並強調安卡拉正在打擊庫爾德工人黨恐怖組織,該組織的目標是伊拉克的穩定,安全與主權。”當時。 同時,PMU派遣了三個旅到Sinjar,以抵抗土耳其的任何入侵。土耳其聲稱親伊朗的PMU與PKK合作。伊朗支持的團體越來越強烈地要求土耳其離開伊拉克,並說他們可以瞄準伊拉克。伊朗還威脅將目標對準駐伊拉克的美軍。 與伊朗有聯繫的Asaib Ahl al-Haq負責人卡伊斯·哈扎利(Qais Khazali)越來越強烈地反對土耳其在伊拉克的作用。他曾表示,土耳其進入了伊拉克,不會願意離開伊拉克,而且與美國相比,今天的土耳其構成了更大的危險。 這一切都是對土耳其基地發動襲擊的基礎。為了瞄準基地,民兵需要協調某種化合物,該化合物是相對秘密的並且也不容易獲得。目前尚不清楚使用什麼火箭,但伊朗通常使用107毫米和122毫米火箭。 火箭發射的區域在Shebek 30旅的控制之下,該旅是Badr組織的附屬機構,也是PMU的一部分。希伯克斯人是尼尼微的一個什葉派教徒。該單位不太可能發射火箭,但更有可能的是專業人員來自外面。過去就是這種情況,例如2020年從同一地區對埃爾比勒使用的122毫米火箭彈。 尚不清楚土耳其是否會就襲擊事件或報復向伊拉克投訴。它不想加劇與伊朗的緊張關係。土耳其,伊朗和俄羅斯在經濟交易和敘利亞衝突消除方面進行了合作。土耳其和伊朗也傾向於反對美國在敘利亞的存在。 他們並不總是在伊拉克或更廣泛的地區問題上達成共識。但是,安卡拉更喜歡將談話要點集中在“ PKK”上,而不是伊朗支持的組織。儘管事實是,現在有一個伊朗支持的團體似乎殺害了一名土耳其士兵。 安卡拉可能聲稱火箭襲擊是由庫爾德工人黨進行的。在線照片顯示122毫米風格的火箭軌道發射器。這將指向更複雜的伊朗聯繫。如果真是這樣,對土耳其基地的攻擊是一次重大升級,同時是在埃爾比勒對美國的無人駕駛飛機襲擊中發生的。 Iranian-backed units may have targeted Turkish base in Iraq In December, Turkish forces at Bashiqa were wounded in an ISIS attack. By SETH J. FRANTZMAN APRIL 18, 2021 13:49 Iranian missiles are seen at an underground of the new "missile cite" of Iran's Revolutionary Guards naval unit at an undisclosed location in Iran (photo credit: IRGC/WANA/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS) A secretive Turkish base in Iraq came under rocket fire last week. Turkey’s Anadolu news, which represents the government’s narrative, said that the rocket pads used to launch the attack were found in an area controlled by the Iranian-backed Hashd al-Sha’abi or PMU in northern Iraq. "The missile launch pads that targeted the Turkish military base were found between the areas of Shalalat and Baaweza in the territory of the Hashd Brigade 30,” Rafaat Smo, the deputy governor of northern Iraq’s Nineveh province, told the Iraqi Kurdish RUDWA news agency Friday. The report notes that last Wednesday, three rockets were fired on a Turkish base in the northern Iraqi town of Bashiqa. “One rocket landed inside the base, martyring a Turkish soldier, while the other two landed in a nearby village, injuring two civilians, including a 12-year-old girl,” Anadolu says. Turkey’s media is now pointing fingers at the PMU and linking it to Iran. Some tensions have grown between pro-Iranian groups in Iraq and Turkey in recent months. They actually date back to 2015 when Baghdad complained about Ankara establishing new bases in northern Iraq. Turkey has had forces in Iraq claiming to be fighting the PKK since the 1990s. Turkish intelligence has also infiltrated Iraq at various times. In 2003 Turkish agents were detained in the so-called “hood incident” in Kirkuk. Turkey has also had close ties to Turkmen in Tel Afar; it has historically had close relations with Mosul and Nineveh, an area it once claimed. Turkey also has close ties to Erbil and the Kurdish authorities there. In December, Turkish forces at Bashiqa were wounded in an ISIS attack. Turkey at the time was training some locals to retake Mosul from ISIS. The secretive base, a compound ringed by cement walls beneath a mountain, eventually included several small outposts with armored vehicles and firing positions. They helped counter ISIS mortars in 2016 and supported local Kurdish Peshmerga positions. After Mosul was liberated and ISIS was largely defeated in Iraq, Turkey kept its base. It has threatened since 2018 to invade Sinjar, an area that was once held by Kurdish Peshmerga but is now held by Iraqi federal forces and the PMU. Turkey alleges the PKK operates in Sinjar. The area is home to Yazidis, and Turkey has carried out numerous airstrikes. IN FEBRUARY 2021, Turkey summoned the Iranian ambassador over remarks alleging it had violated Iraq's sovereignty. “Summoning Ambassador Mohammad Farazmand, the Turkish Foreign Ministry expressed the country's rejection of the accusations leveled by Iran's envoy in Baghdad, underlining that Ankara is fighting the PKK terrorist organization, which targets Iraq's stability, security and sovereignty, said the sources,” noted Anadolu at the time. Meanwhile, the PMU sent three brigades to Sinjar to counter any Turkish invasion. Turkey alleges that the pro-Iranian PMU work with the PKK. Iran-backed groups have been increasingly vocal about demanding that Turkey leave Iraq and saying they could target it. Iran also threatens to target US forces in Iraq. Qais Khazali, head of Asaib Ahl al-Haq that is linked to Iran, has been increasingly vocal in opposing Turkey’s role in Iraq. He has said Turkey entered Iraq and won’t leave willingly – and that it poses more of a danger today than the US. This all underpins the attack that took place on the Turkish base. To target the base, the militias needed coordinates for a compound that is relatively secretive and which is also not easy to get to. It is not clear what rockets were used, but 107mm and 122mm rockets are the usual Iranian profile. The area the rockets were fired from is under the control of the Shebek 30th Brigade, an affiliate of the Badr Organization and part of the PMU. The Shebeks are a Shi’ite minority in Nineveh. It is not likely that the unit fired the rockets, but it's more likely professionals came from outside. This has been the case in the past, such as the 122mm rockets used against Erbil in 2020 from the same area. It is not clear if Turkey will complain to Iraq about the attack or retaliate. It does not want to increase tensions with Iran. Turkey, Iran and Russia have worked together on economic deals and on de-confliction in Syria. Turkey and Iran also tend to oppose the US presence in Syria. They don’t always agree on Iraq or on broader regional issues. However, Ankara prefers to concentrate its talking points on the “PKK” rather than Iranian-backed groups. This is despite the fact that now an Iranian-backed group appears to have killed a Turkish soldier. Ankara may claim the rocket attack was carried out by the PKK. Photos online show 122 mm-style rocket rail launchers. This would point to a more sophisticated Iranian connection. If that is the case, the attack on the Turkish base is a major escalation and comes amid the drone attack on the US in Erbil. 伊朗在閱兵中炫耀數十架無人機 伊斯蘭共和國改善了無人機的射程和製導能力。 由SETH J.FRANTZMAN 2021年4月18日16:43 無人機在2021年4月18日在伊朗的建軍節遊行中展出 (照片來源:SCREENSHOT / MEHR NEWS) 廣告 伊朗週日用閱兵式紀念了國軍紀念日。由於社交疏遠和大流行,年度活動比平常受到更多限制。 有趣的是數十種無人機的遊行。近年來,伊朗已成為無人機的超級大國,並將該系統出口到其代理人,包括也門的胡希特人和最近的伊拉克民兵。上週,一架無人駕駛飛機襲擊了美國駐伊拉克埃爾比勒的一家工廠,這顯示出越來越多的威脅。 展示的第一架無人機據說是Kaman-22,帶有新的肋骨,但看起來像是美國製造的《收割者》(Reaper)或“全球鷹”(Global Hawk)無人機的模型。它跟隨一輛卡車,另一輛卡車上載有“與以色列同降”的口號,在遊行隊伍中顯示。 伊朗於2019年6月擊落了一架美國“全球鷹”偵察無人機。隨後出現了裝有Qods Mohajer-6無人機的卡車,該無人機具有雙尾巴。至少有四個。 然後出現了較小的Mohajer無人機,也許是Mohajer-2或更舊的版本。在展示了傳統的Mohajers之後,出現了一系列帶有Ababil式無人機的卡車,它們看起來更像是巡航導彈。然後是Yasir輕型無人機和可能是HESA Karar無人機的飛機。也可能有Kaman-12和Kian型無人機的例子。 遊行似乎沒有炫耀伊朗更大的Shahed無人駕駛飛機或Saegheh(美國無人駕駛飛機的副本)。德黑蘭仿製了美國製造的“捕食者”和“哨兵”無人機。 在復制美國無人機之前,伊朗曾試圖在包括以色列在內的其他平台上對無人機進行建模。為此,它要么從第三國購買它們,要么試圖獲得在阿富汗等地被擊落的部分外國無人機。它還擊落了幾架外國無人機。 自那時以來,伊朗改善了其無人機的射程和製導能力。它開發了幾種監視類型,也用於神風敢死隊攻擊,基本上用作巡航導彈。它們使用陀螺儀,並且可以預先編程以擊中目標。 當伊朗將​​其Ababil式無人機改用於胡希特時,它們被更名為卡塞夫,並已有效地用於對付沙特阿拉伯。它們不是很大,可以攜帶30公斤左右的彈頭。在某些情況下可以行駛數百公里。 據說在一月份,伊朗試圖向也門出口一架射程約2,000公里的無人機,這意味著它可以到達以色列。 這些遠程無人機並不是特別複雜,基本上改進了德國人在第二次世界大戰中建造的V-1設計。但是,伊朗在使其目標更精確方面取得了很大進步。它在2019年將它們用於沙特阿拉伯的Abqaiq工廠。 自那時以來,德黑蘭越來越多地將無人機用於沙特阿拉伯,並將其出口到敘利亞,伊拉克和黎巴嫩。伊朗無人機於2018年2月進入以色列領空,必須被擊落。 伊朗的新聞電視評論員吹噓該國在無人機上的成功。一位評論員說,遊行是“力量的真實展示”,並補充說卡車展示了“最新的軍事裝備”。 伊朗為自己的無人機生產感到自豪,並在製裁下做到了這一切。這位不熟悉無人機類型的評論員說,它們先進並且展示了伊朗的軍事實力,並補充說伊斯蘭共和國在當地生產其80%的軍事裝備。 Iran shows off dozens of drones in military parade The Islamic Republic has improved the range and guidance on its drones. By SETH J. FRANTZMAN APRIL 18, 2021 16:43 Drone displayed in Army Day parade in Iran, April 18, 2021 (photo credit: SCREENSHOT/MEHR NEWS) Advertisement Iran on Sunday marked National Army Day with a military parade. The annual event was more limited than usual due to social distancing and the pandemic. Of interest was a parade of dozens of types of drones. Iran has become a drone superpower in recent years and exports the systems to its proxies, including the Houthis in Yemen and most recently Iraqi militias. A drone attack on a US facility in Erbil, Iraq, last week showcased the increasing threat. The first drone that was showcased was said to be a Kaman-22 with a new underbelly, but it looks like some kind of a mock-up of either the US-made Reaper or Global Hawk drones. It came on a truck following another truck carrying a “down with Israel” slogan, which was shown at the parade. Iran shot down a US Global Hawk surveillance drone in June 2019. Then came trucks with Qods Mohajer-6 drones, which have a twin tail. There were at least four of them. Then came smaller Mohajer drones, perhaps Mohajer-2 or older versions. After showcasing the traditional Mohajers, a series of trucks with Ababil-style drones came, which look more like cruise missiles. Then came the Yasir light-surveillance UAV and what was probably a HESA Karar drone. There also may have been examples of the Kaman-12 and Kian-style drones. The parade did not appear to show off Iran’s larger Shahed line of drones or its Saegheh, which are copies of US drones. Tehran copied the US-made Predator and Sentinel drones. Prior to copying US drones, Iran had tried to model its drones on other platforms, including Israeli ones. It did this by either acquiring them from third countries or trying to get a hold of parts of foreign drones that were downed in places such as Afghanistan. It also shot down several foreign drones itself. Since then, Iran has improved the range and guidance of its drones. It develops several types for surveillance and also for kamikaze attacks, basically used as cruise missiles. These use gyroscopes and can be preprogrammed to hit a target. When Iran repurposed its Ababil-style drones for the Houthis, they were renamed Qasef and have been used effectively against Saudi Arabia. They are not very large, carry a warhead of around 30 kg. and can travel in some cases hundreds of kilometers. In January, Iran was said to be trying to export to Yemen a drone with a range of some 2,000 km., meaning it could reach Israel. These long-range drones are not particularly sophisticated, improving basically on the V-1 design that the Germans built in World War II. However, Iran has gotten a lot better at making them more precise in their targeting. It used them against Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq facility in 2019. Since then, Tehran has increasingly used drones against Saudi Arabia and has exported them to Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. An Iranian drone entered Israeli airspace in February 2018 and had to be shot down. Iran’s Press TV commentators bragged about the country’s success with UAVs. The parade was a “real show of might,” one commentator said, adding that the trucks showcased the “latest military equipment.” Iran is proud of its indigenous production of drones and has done all this under sanctions. The commentator, who was not familiar with the types of drones, said they were advanced and showcased Iran’s military might, adding that the Islamic Republic produces 80% of its military equipment locally. 敘利亞將於5月26日舉行總統選舉-議會 今年是對民主抗議者進行流血鎮壓的10週年紀念日,這場抗議引發了內戰,使敘利亞的大部分地區陷於廢墟。 由路透社 2021年4月18日16:01 敘利亞總統巴沙爾·阿薩德在政府委員會上發表講話,監督在敘利亞大馬士革遏制冠狀病毒病(COVID-19)傳播的措施 (照片來源:SANA /路透社) 廣告 敘利亞將於5月26日舉行總統大選,幾乎可以肯定的是總統巴沙爾·阿薩德(Bashar al-Assad)可以連任第三屆。 阿薩德的家人和他的複興黨在安全部隊和軍隊的幫助下統治了敘利亞五十年,那裡的阿拉維派少數民族占主導地位。 今年是對民主抗議者進行流血鎮壓的十週年紀念,該抗議事件引發了內戰,使敘利亞大部分地區陷於廢墟。 多邊衝突吸引了世界大國,殺害了數十萬人,並使數百萬人流離失所,但在俄羅斯和伊朗盟國的支持下,阿薩德(Assad)現在重新控制了該國大部分地區,目前已接近尾聲。 選舉提名將於11天后截止。候選人必須在敘利亞生活了最近十年,這阻止了主要的反對派流亡者站出來。 議會發言人哈姆達·薩巴格(Hammouda Sabbagh)在議會宣布選舉日期後說:“我呼籲敘利亞人行使選舉總統的權利。” 他說,民意測驗將表明敘利亞已經成功克服了毀滅性的衝突。 Syria to hold presidential elections on May 26 - parliament This year is the 10th anniversary of a bloody crackdown on pro-democracy protesters which triggered a civil war that has left much of Syria in ruins. By REUTERS APRIL 18, 2021 16:01 Syrian President Bashar al-Assad addresses the government committee that oversees measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Damascus, Syria (photo credit: SANA/REUTERS) Advertisement Syria will hold a presidential election on May 26 that is virtually certain to return President Bashar al-Assad for a third term - an event that Washington and the opposition say is a farce designed to cement his autocratic rule. Assad's family and his Baath party have ruled Syria for five decades with the help of the security forces and the army, where his Alawite minority dominate. This year is the 10th anniversary of a bloody crackdown on pro-democracy protesters which triggered a civil war that has left much of Syria in ruins. The multi-sided conflict has sucked in world powers, killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced millions more, but is now nearing its end with Assad, supported by Russian and Iranian allies, back in control of most of the country. Nominations for the election close in 11 days' time. Candidates must have lived in Syria for the last 10 years, which prevents key opposition figures in exile from standing. "I call on Syrians to exercise their right to elect the president," parliamentary speaker Hammouda Sabbagh said after parliament announced the election date. He said the poll would be a signal that Syria had successfully overcome its devastating conflict. 外交部表示,伊朗始終歡迎與利雅得進行對話 兩國於2016年斷絕了外交關係,並在爭奪影響力的過程中參與了該地區的幾次代理戰爭。 由路透社 2021年4月19日11:05 現在,當以色列從地圖上看時,它與兩個直接面對海灣的伊朗面對的國家結成聯盟 (照片來源:FLICKR / MAGNUS HALSNES) 廣告 伊朗外交部發言人周一表示,德黑蘭一直歡迎與沙特阿拉伯進行對話,但他並未證實或否認本月主要競爭對手之間的直接對話。 兩國於2016年斷絕了外交關係,並在爭奪影響力的過程中參與了該地區的幾次代理戰爭。 一名伊朗高級官員和兩名地區消息人士告訴路透社,沙特和伊朗官員在伊拉克舉行了討論,以緩解緊張局勢,因為華盛頓正努力恢復與德黑蘭的2015年核協議並結束也門戰爭。 英國《金融時報》首先報導了這次會議。 外交部發言人賽義德·哈蒂布扎德(Saeed Khatibzadeh)在每週一次的新聞發布會上說:“儘管有報導有時相互矛盾,但我們已經看到媒體報導了伊朗與沙特阿拉伯之間的對話。” 他說:“重要的是,伊朗伊斯蘭共和國一直歡迎與沙特阿拉伯王國進行對話,並認為這符合兩國人民的利益,以及該地區的和平與穩定。” 沙特當局尚未回應路透社對會談發表評論的要求。 一位消息人士說,這次會議是由本月初訪問沙特阿拉伯的伊拉克總理安排的,會議的焦點是也門,由利雅得領導的軍事聯盟一直在與與伊朗結盟的胡希運動進行鬥爭。 遜尼派力量沙特阿拉伯反對與什葉派伊朗達成國際核協議,因為它沒有解決德黑蘭的導彈計劃和地區行為。 它要求這次在維也納舉行的會談上達成更強有力的協議,旨在使美國和伊朗重新遵守該協議,然後美國總統唐納德·特朗普於2018年退出該協議。德黑蘭在特朗普再次實施制裁後違反了幾項核限制。 喬·拜登總統的政府也正在敦促也門停火,這與聯合國所稱的世界上最大的人道主義危機息息相關。 Iran always welcomes dialog with Riyadh, foreign ministry says The two countries severed diplomatic ties in 2016 and have been engaged in several proxy wars in the region as they vie for influence. By REUTERS APRIL 19, 2021 11:05 Now, when Israel looks out at the map, it has an alliance with two countries that face Iran directly across the Gulf (photo credit: FLICKR/MAGNUS HALSNES) Advertisement Iran's foreign ministry spokesman said on Monday that Tehran always welcomed dialog with Saudi Arabia, but he did not confirm nor deny direct talks this month between the arch-rivals. The two countries severed diplomatic ties in 2016 and have been engaged in several proxy wars in the region as they vie for influence. A senior Iranian official and two regional sources had told Reuters that Saudi and Iranian officials held discussions in Iraq in a bid to ease tensions as Washington works to revive a 2015 nuclear pact with Tehran and end the Yemen war. The Financial Times first reported the meeting. "We have seen media reports about talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia, although the reports sometimes had contradictory quotes," Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh told a weekly news conference. "What is important is that the Islamic Republic of Iran has always welcomed dialog with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and considers it in the interest of the people of the two countries, as well as peace and stability in the region," he added. Saudi authorities have not responded to a Reuters request for comment on the talks. One of the sources said the meeting, arranged by Iraq's prime minister who visited Saudi Arabia earlier this month, had focused on Yemen, where a military coalition led by Riyadh has been battling the Iran-aligned Houthi movement. Sunni power Saudi Arabia had opposed the international nuclear accord with Shi'ite Iran for not tackling Tehran's missiles program and regional behavior. It has called for a stronger deal this time around at talks in Vienna aimed at bringing the United States and Iran back into compliance with the pact, which then US President Donald Trump quit in 2018. Tehran breached several nuclear restrictions after Trump reimposed sanctions. President Joe Biden's administration is also pressing for a ceasefire in Yemen which is grappling with what the United Nations describes as the world's largest humanitarian crisis.

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