Following Morgan Stanley’s call for wafer increases, the latest Credit Suisse report stated that due to limited wafer capacity output but a substantial increase in demand, both 8-inch and 12-inch wafers will become more in short supply from 2021-2023, and the relevant supply chain capacity The utilization rate is expected to gradually reach 100%. From the second half of the year, the utilization rate of 6-inch wafers is also expected to increase to 90%, which is beneficial to the three major index stocks of Global Crystal (6488), Taishengke (3532) and Hejing (6182). Profits have jumped, and the target price has been revised up to RMB 1,050, RMB 215 and RMB 75.

The improvement of semiconductors has spread to upstream wafers. Morgan Stanley has just raised the target prices of Global and Hejing to 1,020 yuan and 72 yuan. Credit Suisse took over and called for new high prices. On the 7th, Taiwan Sembcorp, Hejing's share price is relatively strong.

Credit Suisse said that due to the increase in global semiconductor capital expenditures, wafer supply has been constrained, which has exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand for 8-inch and 12-inch wafers. In terms of 12 inches, the compound supply growth of 7% in 2017-2020 will be reduced to 2% in 2021-2023, but demand will increase from 4% to 7% in the same period. The current manufacturer’s capacity utilization rate is about 92%, which is expected next year. Gradually increase to 97%, 100%.

Credit Suisse pointed out that the above will drive 12-inch quotations to accelerate. From the fourth quarter of last year to the fourth quarter of 2023, wafer quotations are expected to grow at a compound rate of 7%, while 8-inch and 6-inch wafers are also expected to grow 3- Within 5% and 5%. Beginning in the second half of this year, downstream customers are bound to negotiate long-term contracts with fabs, and the contract may be tied to 2022 or even 2023 production capacity.

On the other hand, some suppliers hope to make investment in creation. Credit Suisse said that this requires fab customers to negotiate a five-year long-term contract, spot quotation plus 30 to 50% premium and other conditions to support, the investment cost is not low. Therefore, it can be expected that even if there is related investment, it will have little impact on long-term supply and demand, and there will be no serious oversupply before 2024.

In response to the structural support of wafer demand, Credit Suisse will revise Global Crystal's EPS to 31 yuan and 41 yuan next year, Tai Sembcorp to 5 yuan and 9.5 yuan, and combined wafers to 2.5 yuan and 3.5 yuan, with target prices. Follow up

繼摩根士丹利喊漲晶圓，瑞士信貸最新報告表示，受到晶圓產能產出有限但需求大幅增加，2021-2023年8吋及12吋晶圓都將變得更加供不應求，相關供應鏈產能利用率預期逐步達到100%，下半年起6吋晶圓的利用率也預估提高到九成，有利環球晶（6488）、台勝科（3532）、合晶（6182）三大指標股的獲利躍增，目標價分別上修到1,050元、215元及75元。

半導體的上修力道已經擴散到上游晶圓，摩根士丹利才剛把環球晶、合晶目標價升至1,020元、72元，瑞信就接棒喊新高價，7日表現以台勝科、合晶股價較強。
瑞信表示，受到全球半導體資本支出增加，晶圓供給卻出現限縮，加劇8吋、12吋晶圓的供需失衡。以12吋來說，2017-2020年供給複合成長7%，2021-2023年降速至2%，同期需求卻從4%提升到7%，目前廠商產能利用率約92%，明後年預期逐步提升到97%、100%。

瑞信指出，上述將帶動12吋報價加速上漲，自去年第4季到2023年第4季，晶圓報價預估複合成長7%，同時期的8吋和6吋晶圓也預期成長3-5%及5%內。今年下半年開始，下游客戶勢必要和晶圓廠洽談長約，合約可能綁到2022甚至2023年的產能。
另一方面，部分供應商希望進行創建投資，瑞信表示，這需要晶圓廠的客戶洽談到五年長約、現貨報價再加上三至五成的溢價等條件支持，投資成本不低，因此可預期即使有相關投資，對長線供需影響也不大，2024年以前都不會有嚴重的供給過剩。
因應晶圓需求有結構性支撐，瑞信上修環球晶今、明年EPS至31元、41元，台勝科上調到5元、9.5元，合晶上修到2.5元、3.5元，目標價跟進拉升

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