(English) Turkey's diplomatic option: Middle East or Central Asia/Su Yu-Ping

外交官的國際新聞導覽及中東中亞的歷史故事 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia
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Su Yuping/Turkey's Diplomatic Choice:Middle East or Central Asia We want you to know… If Turkey enters Central Asia and creates a confrontation with Russia, then Turkey’s strategic position will be reversed 180 degrees. Without Turkey’s intervention in the Arab region of the Middle East, the United States will definitely draw Turkey to become a closer ally in the US-Russian confrontation. , Together to contain Russia’s expansion ● Su Yuping Turkey defeats Armenia together with Azerbaijan A report by Voice of America on February 1, 2021 mentioned that Turkey and Azerbaijan are continuing to deepen their relations through large-scale joint military exercises. The 12-day military exercise involved tank divisions, airborne troops and "special forces." Weapons made by Turkey will also play an important role. Such a deliberate display of force has led some analysts to believe that Ankara may be on the verge of shifting from the Middle East to Central Asia's foreign policy focus. Turkish-made drones played a key role in the fierce war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in October, which was fought in the controversial Nagorno-Karabakh enclave in Azerbaijan. . As Turkey vigorously provided military aid to Azerbaijan, in comparison, Russia, which should be Armenia’s backing, did not make a big move. As a result, Azerbaijan took the upper hand in the battle, and finally won the final victory of the war. This is also regarded as a strategic victory for Turkey. Turkey and Azerbaijan, one nation, two countries? Serhat Guvenc, a professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul, said that Turkey and Azerbaijan have close ethnic ties and defined their relationship as "one nation, two countries." "(One Nation, Two States). Do you find this term familiar? The Term once used in cross-strait relations were also used when Hitler used to annex Austria, or the terms used to describe relations between East-West Germany and North-South Korea, how could it also appear between Turkey and Azerbaijan? The birthplace of ancient Turkic tribes: Mongolian Plateau + Siberia Su Yu-Ping The author has own research on the inheritance of the Turkic tribes from ancient times. In 2000 BC, when the Yellow River basin in China entered the period when the Great Yu established the Xia Dynasty, the nomadic peoples of the northern Mongolian plateau and Siberia had already appeared in the Donghu (Mongolian), The nomadic peoples of Dingling (Turkic language group) and Su-shen (Tungus language group) take turns to rule the land in the north Asia. "Dingling" who speaks ancient Turkic language was first nomadic living in Baikal Lake area. After the rise of the Huns, they became a subsidiary tribe. At the end of the Eastern Han Dynasty, the Huns declined and Xianbei rose. During the Southern and Northern Dynasties, the Northern Wei Dynasty unified the Central Plains and the North, and fought with the Rouran Empire on the Mongolian plateau (the true background of Mulan's Story). At that time, Ding Ling had changed his name to "Gao-che." Many of the warriors of Gao-che were hired soldiers in the frontier army of the Northern Wei Dynasty(Xianbei Touba family). At the end of the Northern and Southern Dynasties, Gao-che was renamed the "Tiele Tribes." At that time, Tiele had about 50 tribes, each with a leader. After the First Turkic Khanate destroyed the Rouran Empire and established the Khanate in 552AD, the first Turkic Great Western Expedition began in 556. The younger brother of the Turkic Tumen Khan, "Istami Yabgu" (Istami Yabgu) ,the ancestor of the Western Turkic Khanate, led a 100,000 Turkic and affiliated tribe of the Tiele tribes to march west. First they formed an alliance with the Persian Sassanid empire, and defeat the Hephthalite Empire, a descendant of the then Central Asian hegemon, who is a descendant of the Dayuezi tribe ( Sekas/Skitei from the West), divide its territory, and continue the Western Expedition to pursue the remnants of the Rouran Empire "The Avars" and continued to expand the territory to the Crimean Peninsula on the northern shore of the Black Sea. Since then, the Turkic-speaking Tie-le tribes have been scattered on the vast Eurasian plains such as Ukraine, Central Asia, Siberia, the Mongolian Plateau, and the Northeast Plain. Turkey fights for hegemony in Asia Minor Oghuz Yabgu, a descendant of Tiele in Central Asia, rose in 750AD. There were many armed mercenary groups in the country. Among them was the Seljuk, a Turkic-speaking group that sent to the south. It became an armed mercenary group hired by the Kara Khanate, and finally defeated the Ghazni dynasty of East Persia. In 1040 AD, it proclaimed itself the Seljuk Turkish Sultanate. Although the Seljuk Sultanate has been established, it still act like an armed mercenary, accepting employment from various governments. At that time, they had entered the Arab empire and was hired by the Abbasid caliphate, entered the Mesopotamia, became a country within a country. Then Seljuk used his strong force to conquer the Anatolian Plateau (today's Turkish land) from the Byzantine Empire, and then attacked Palestine, took Jerusalem from the hands of the Arab Fatimid dynasty, which triggered the first Crusaders from Western Europe came to rescue the Holy Land. This is really a wonderful encounter between the East and the West. This is the magnificent westward migration history of the Turkic nation. Seljuk Sultanate, Rum Sultanate in Anatolia, and finally the Osman Turkish empire (Osman Turkey) to today’s Republic of Turkey are in the same root. The Turkic tribes that stayed in Central Asia and the Caucasus, such as Azerbaijan, the Crimean Tatars, the Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikstan in Central Asia are actually brother countries and share the same origin and descended from the same origin in terms of language, culture, religion, and history. They are all from the Mongolian Plateau today. Turkey and Armenia are historical enemy Therefore, the Turkish alliance with Azerbaijan this time, wages full-scale war on Armenia, defeating the Armenian army in the shortest time and winning with great speed, greatly enhanced Turkey's influence in the Caucasus region, and further consolidated the close ties between Ankara and Baku. What's more, Turkey and Armenia have been fighting for a long time accusation from Armenians over the ethnic cleansing of Armenians in Turkey during the First World War. This time Turkey defeated Armenia and could finally ask them to close their mouth which is obviously a great victory for Turkey. Huseyin Bagci, Director of the Ankara Institute for Foreign Policy Research, said: "Turkey is expanding its influence in the Caucasus, and it will further expand in the future." "Turkey will no longer play the role of Islam and the Middle East, but now could pay more attention to Turkish nationalism." Whether Turkey’s foreign policy is shifting or not is a matter of its relations with allies Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has traditionally positioned himself as a global guardian of Muslim rights, especially for the suffering Palestinians in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Ankara is still a strong backing for the entire Middle East "Muslim Brotherhood" and Gaza "Hamas". Traditionally, this move has played a very good role in Erdogan's religious voters area. However, as the signatories of the Abraham Agreement promoted and signed by the United States in the Gulf countries in 2020 have normalized relations with Israel, Ankara has realized that Turkey is facing an increasingly isolated situation in the Middle East. However, other analysts are cautious about Turkey's policy shift from the "Middle East" to "Turkic countries in Central Asia." The repositioning of the Caucasus and Central Asian countries such as Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan is not without risks. Russia: The biggest obstacle to Turkey's entry into the Turkic world in Central Asia Turkey and Russia have fought 12 Russian-Turkish wars from the 17th century to the 20th century, almost all of them ended with the failure of the Ottoman Turkish Empire and the ceding of a large amount of land to the Russian Empire. So looking back at this history is The shame of Turkey. It is also because of the result of so many centuries that Russia and Turkey cannot become true allies, because the historical hatred is too great, too much, at most because of some special variables, such as Trump’s disregarding the cards. The common enemy of Russia appears, otherwise Turkey and Russia are natural enemies. Perhaps Turkey's military and national strength is not as strong as Russia today, but if he wants to return to the Central Asian Turkic world as the leader, Russia certainly cannot agree, let alone the sensitive matter of Turkish troops stationing in Central Asia. For the Russians, their ancestors were also fighting for independence from the rulers of the Mongolian Golden Horde Khanate and it's Turkic bureaucrats, therefore Russia will not tolerate the re-emergence of another traditionally powerful enemy in its own federal territory or sphere of influence will certainly no. Russia has always regarded this region as its sphere of influence, and Central Asia is an important channel to Russia's territories to the Far East and Siberia. Even China is promoting the Belt and Road Initiative to increase its influence in Central Asia. In addition, for these Turkic-speaking countries in Central Asia, they were all annexed by the Tsarist Empire in the 16th and 19th centuries. Although they have regained independent state status after the collapse of the Soviet Union, they have inherited the Russian Federation of the Soviet Union. The same is a behemoth by his side, nothing can be considered safe. Central Asian countries reject Russia and Turkey can enter unification Since Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula in 2014, Central Asian countries, especially Kazakhstan, have been increasingly cautious about Moscow. In recent years, Kazakh elites have been worried about Russia's foreign policy. Some Russian politicians even claimed that when the Soviet Union collapsed, Kazakh was given too much territory and there was no need to give that much. In addition, there are Russian people living in some areas of northern Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and other countries were bullied and interfered by Russia under this pretext. If Central Asian countries can introduce Turkish forces of the same language and species to confront Russia, I believe that Central Asian countries It is happy to see it happen. Shifting to Central Asia will effectively improve Turkey's relations with Europe and the United States If one day, Turkey enters Central Asia and creates a confrontation with Russia, then Turkey’s strategic position will be reversed 180 degrees. Without Turkey’s interference in the Arab region of the Middle East, the United States will definitely vigorously draw Turkey into an ally in the US-Russia confrontation. Containing Russia’s expansion; the European Union may therefore reconsider the proposal to allow Turkey to join the European Union, tempting Turkey to join Europe as a pawn against Russia’s western expansion. Of course, Turkey is originally a member of the NATO camp, and there is no difficulty in integrating the United States and the European Union militarily. . Therefore, currently in front of Turkish President Erdogan, there are two completely opposite strategic options: (1) Favor the Middle East strategy It means that it wants to restore the glory of the Ottoman Empire to rule the Middle East, so that not only Arab countries cannot cooperate with Turkey (because no one wants to be ruled by Turkey), Turkey will continue to support Hamas and have a bad relationship with Israel and continue to support it. The Muslim Brotherhood has strained relations with Egypt, continues to intervene in the civil war in Libya and Syria, and has strained relations with neighboring countries, and even tries to win over the traditional enemy Russia to fight against the traditional allies such as the United States, Europe, and Israel. (2) Favoring the Central Asian strategy Turkey, as the leader of the Turkic-speaking countries with the strongest national and military power, has called for and unified the Caucasus and the Turkic-speaking countries of Central Asia to integrate economically, culturally, religiously, and politically into a more specific "Turkic Confederation/Commonwealth" (Turkic Confederation/Commonwealth). ) Is possible. Compared with the hostile and unfriendly Arab region, the five Central Asian countries (Kazakh, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan) have a bare area of ​​4 million square kilometers, five times the size of Turkey, but the five countries The total population is 71.73 million, which is not far from Turkey's 83.14 million. But economically, the income of Turkish nationals is higher than that of any of the five Central Asian countries. Therefore, Turkey clearly leads these Turkic countries in economic terms. , Cultural and military advancement status. There is so much room for development in Central Asia, without offending Arab neighbors and the traditional friends of the United States and Europe. Turkey should really consider adjusting its foreign policy, taking the path of nationalism, and integrating the Turkic world. In the Islamic world of the Middle East, if you start or call the wind and rain, it will attract a counterattack that is not worth the loss. Original URL: Su Yuping/Turkish Diplomatic Choice Become a pawn to stop Russia or return to the glory of the empire? | Cloud Theory | ETtoday News Cloud Follow us: @ETtodaynet on Twitter | ETtoday on Facebook Huseyin Bagci

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