cover

2021.06.12 國際新聞導讀-美國拜登總統訪歐洲找回盟友之旅、北極主權引發爭議、以色列新政府周日上台

外交官的國際新聞導覽及中東中亞的歷史故事 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia
2021-06-11
23:29
0 comments
No Rating

2021.06.12 國際新聞導讀-美國拜登總統訪歐洲找回盟友之旅、北極主權引發爭議、以色列新政府周日上台 拜登啟程赴英拚外交 擁抱歐洲對抗中俄 4 楊駿宗 2021年6月9日 週三 下午6:59·2 分鐘 (閱讀時間) 美國總統拜登這周訪歐拚外交,先跟英國首相強生會晤後,接著展開G7峰會、北約峰會以及美俄峰會。拜登出發前投書華郵,承諾跟歐洲盟友一起對抗中俄,只是在這之前美國爆出竊聽歐洲高層,再加上前總統川普的政策,美歐關係恐怕回不去了。 圖/達志影像路透社(資料畫面) 美國總統拜登9日啟程前往英國,展開上任以來首次出訪。 白宮發言人薩琪:「他(拜登)已經準備了50年,他一直在世界舞台上,幾十年來認識許多領導人。」 拜登先在週四與英國首相強生會晤後,接著出席G7領導人峰會,拜登此行最重要目的是修補美國與盟友關係。 他出訪前還投書華郵,標題寫明「我的歐洲之行是為了團結世界民主國家」,展現美國領導力,遏制「新時代威脅」,點名要應對的國家就是中國和俄羅斯。 只是如此積極拉攏歐盟,卻不見得有效果。 央視主播:「西方輿論認為,雖然拜登希望藉此次出訪,向盟友證明美國回來了,但是美歐關係已經回不去了。」 歐洲各國一方面歡迎拜登,但卻又小心提防美國,因為前美國總統川普帶給歐洲難以抹去的陰影,紐約時報更如此分析。 陸媒新聞片段:「儘管歐洲人欣賞拜登的誓言,但他們目睹了美國75年的外交政策,是如何隨著總統的更迭,而在一夜之間消失的。」 不只美國媒體澆冷水,G7峰會前美國還爆出竊聽德國總理及歐洲高層。 法國總統馬克洪:「很清楚這在盟友之間是不可接受的。」 法國、德國領袖呼籲美國提出說明,拜登歐洲行遇挑戰,同時另一邊。 美國副總統賀錦麗:「不要來,不要來。」 副總統賀錦麗出訪瓜地馬拉,向非法難民喊話,惹來群眾不滿,拉布條抗議要她滾回家;墨西哥也有抗議民眾反對賀錦麗造訪,讓她處境為難。 美俄外長在冰島首碰面 「北極主權」仍存有歧異 記者 黃貞怡 報導 發佈時間:2021/05/20 19:20 最後更新時間:2021/05/20 19:46 小 中 大 美俄關係緊張,終於稍微緩解,美國國務卿布林肯和俄羅斯外長,在冰島首次會面,雙方都釋出善意要改善關係。不過在冰島會議上,俄羅斯強調在北極擁有主權,和美國仍然仍然有隔閡。 圖/達志影像路透社 美俄外交層級最高官員,在美國總統拜登上任後首次會面,雙方先擊肘打個招呼,這次在冰島的會面,意義重大。 美國國務卿布林肯:「我們尋求跟俄羅斯維持一個,可預測穩定的關係,我們認為這對我們的國民好,也對俄羅斯的人民好,也對全世界有益。」 拜登之前把普欽形容成殺手,態度跟前總統川普大不相同,但美俄都為未來想舉辦的領袖高峰會,踏出第一步。 俄羅斯外長拉夫洛夫:「當然,這場會議對我們的關係很重要,如我們的總統所希望,我們接下來會來解決問題。」 冰島將舉行北極會議部長級會議,美俄外長藉這個機會見面,雖然俄羅斯看似要與美方破冰,但對於北極的主權,可是一點都沒有要讓的意思。 俄羅斯外長拉夫洛夫:「長久以來大家都了解,這是(北極)我們的領土我們的土地,我們會負責北極海岸的安全。」 俄羅斯選在此時,罕見開放外媒,到北冰洋的法蘭士約瑟夫地群島,參觀他們的空軍基地,大秀軍事肌肉,俄軍動態跟美方希望避免北極軍事化的走向,恰恰相反。 詳細報導請見: news.tvbs.com.tw/world/1513334?from=Copy_content Avolon 表示,飛行出租車可能會從飛機上偷走乘客 這些交易反映了人們對可以垂直起降的電池驅動飛機越來越感興趣,這為旅行者提供了一種避開交通堵塞和在城市之間跳躍的新方式。 通過路透 2021 年 6 月 11 日 03:09 慕尼黑飛行出租車初創公司 Lilium 的講義圖片展示了其五座原型車 (圖片來源:路透社) 廣告 空中客車公司和波音公司當心——世界上最大的飛機所有者之一表示,客機可能會看到他們的機翼被飛行出租車初創公司的迅速普及所剪斷。 在世界部分地區,商業航空旅行已經面臨來自高速列車的競爭。但愛爾蘭飛機租賃公司 Avolon 的負責人表示,隨著它在空中穿梭機上投資高達 20 億美元,競爭將變得更加激烈。 Avolon 是英國垂直航空航天公司開發的多達 1,000 架電動垂直起降 (eVOTL) 飛機的啟動客戶之一,該公司計劃通過與一家空白支票公司合併上市。 德國航天飛機初創公司Lilium 在 3 月份表示,它將通過類似的流程在美國股市上市。 這些交易反映了人們對可以垂直起降的電池驅動飛機越來越感興趣,這為旅行者提供了一種避開交通堵塞和在城市之間跳躍的新方式。 Avolon 首席執行官 Domhnal Slattery 週四晚間表示,Vertical 的 VA-X4 的射程為 120 英里,但可以進一步擴展。 “現任(飛機製造商)面臨的挑戰是,如果航程可以擴展到 400-500 英里,對傳統窄體飛機有什麼影響?” 他在接受路透社採訪時說。 當被問及四名乘客和一名飛行員的車輛是否可以從更大的商用飛機上開展業務時,Slattery 說,“最終,當然可以。這是不可避免的未來。” 飛機製造商自己也投資於此類項目。 夥伴關係 直升機旅行也可能受到擠壓。 Slattery 說:“你必須認為你擁有這些機器,可以通過安靜 100 倍和無排放來消除傳統直升機的中介。” Slattery 表示,Avolon 已經確定了價值 12.5 億美元的 310 個 eVTOL 和價值 7.5 億美元的 190 個期權。 他們將加入擁有或管理的 568 架客機機隊,一直到 396 座波音 777-300ER。 Slattery 表示,Avolon 尚未決定如何部署空中出租車,其相對較短的產品開發週期標誌著習慣於長期噴氣機投資的租賃公司的轉變。 “我們可以與航空公司合作,我們可以在世界各地的不同司法管轄區建立我們自己的實體,我們可以與直升機運營商合作,”Slattery 說。 “我認為隨著時間的推移,它將採用很多不同的形式。但這項技術已經存在,我們將通過零排放證書引領它的商業化”。 此舉發生之際,航空公司正在爭奪環境議程的領導權,因為他們承受著來自投資者的壓力,要求它們幫助飛行脫碳並提高其環境、社會和治理 (ESG) 得分。 Vertical Aerospace 表示,eVTOL 飛機可以通過零排放和電力(在可能的情況下來自可再生能源)幫助該行業實現碳減排目標。 但專家表示,安全認證的時間問題仍然存在,eVOTL 供應商預計最早於 2024 年進行。 Flying taxis could poach passengers from planes, Avolon says The deals reflect growing interest in battery-powered aircraft that can take off and land vertically, offering a new way for travellers to beat traffic and hop between cities. By REUTERS JUNE 11, 2021 03:09 A handout picture from Munich flying taxi startup Lilium shows its five-seater prototype (photo credit: REUTERS) Airbus and Boeing watch out - one of the world's largest aircraft owners says passenger planes could see their wings clipped by the rapid spread of flying taxi startups. Commercial air travel already faces competition from high-speed trains in parts of the world. But the head of Irish aircraft leasing firm Avolon said competition would shift skywards as it invested up to $2 billion in aerial shuttles. Avolon is among the launch customers for up to 1,000 electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVOTL) aircraft being developed by Britain's Vertical Aerospace, which plans to go public through a merger with a blank-check firm. German air shuttle startup Lilium said in March it would float on the US stock market via a similar process. The deals reflect growing interest in battery-powered aircraft that can take off and land vertically, offering a new way for travellers to beat traffic and hop between cities. Vertical's VA-X4 has a range of 120 miles but that could be extended further, Avolon Chief Executive Domhnal Slattery said on late Thursday. "The challenge for incumbent (planemakers) is if the range can extend to 400-500 miles, what is the implication for traditional narrowbodies?" he said in a Reuters interview. Asked if the vehicles for four passengers and a pilot could take business from much larger commercial planes, Slattery said, "Eventually, yes of course. This is the inevitable future." Planemakers have themselves invested in such projects. PARTNERSHIPS Helicopter travel could also be squeezed. "You have got to think that you have these machines that can disintermediate the legacy helicopters through just being 100 times quieter and no emissions," Slattery said. Avolon has placed a firm order for 310 eVTOLs worth $1.25 billion and 190 options worth $750 million, Slattery said. They will join an owned or managed fleet of 568 passenger aircraft all the way up to the 396-seat Boeing 777-300ER. Slattery said Avolon had not decided how to deploy the air taxis, whose relatively short product development cycles mark a shift for leasing companies used to long-term jet investments. "We could partner with airlines, we could establish our own entities in different jurisdictions around the world, we could partner with helicopter operators," Slattery said. "I think it is going to take a lot of different forms over time. But the technology is here and we are going to lead commercialisation of it with zero-emission credentials". The move comes at a time when aviation companies are jostling for leadership of the environmental agenda as they came under pressure from investors to help decarbonise flying and bolster their environmental, social and governance (ESG) scores. Vertical Aerospace says eVTOL aircraft can help the industry meet carbon reduction goals through zero emissions and electrical power, where possible derived from renewable energy. But experts say questions remain over the timing of safety certification, which eVOTL suppliers expect as early as 2024. 俄羅斯將向伊朗提供可追踪以色列國防軍基地的先進衛星-報告 郵報稱,該計劃將交付配備高分辨率相機的俄羅斯製造的 Kanopus-V 衛星,該衛星可在幾個月內從俄羅斯發射。 通過路透社,耶路撒冷郵報STAFF 2021 年 6 月 11 日 07:19 一顆衛星 (照片來源:INGIMAGE) 廣告 據《華盛頓郵報》週四報導,俄羅斯正準備向伊朗提供先進衛星,使其能夠追踪中東地區的潛在軍事目標。 預計該衛星將能夠跟踪遠程目標,包括以色列國防軍基地、波斯灣的煉油廠和美軍的伊拉克基地。 郵報稱,該計劃將交付配備高分辨率相機的俄羅斯製造的 Kanopus-V 衛星,該衛星可在幾個月內從俄羅斯發射。 該報告是在美國總統喬·拜登和俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京在日內瓦會晤前幾天發布的,當時伊朗和美國正在就恢復 2015 年旨在遏制伊朗核計劃以換取放鬆經濟制裁的核協議進行間接談判. 該衛星將允許“持續監測從波斯灣煉油廠和以色列軍事基地到駐有美軍的伊拉克軍營等設施”,該報援引三位未具名消息人士的話說——一位現任和一位前美國官員以及一位中東地區的高級官員。政府官員介紹了此次出售。 《華盛頓郵報》稱,雖然 Kanopus-V 面向民用市場銷售,但自 2018 年以來,伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊的領導人已多次前往俄羅斯幫助談判該協議。 它補充說,俄羅斯專家今年春天前往伊朗,幫助培訓將在德黑蘭以西卡拉季附近新建的設施操作衛星的工作人員。 郵報稱,這顆衛星將配備俄羅斯硬件,“包括一台分辨率為 1.2 米的相機——比伊朗目前的能力有了重大改進,但仍遠不及美國間諜衛星所達到的質量。” 革命衛隊在 2020 年 4 月表示,他們已成功將本國第一顆軍事衛星送入軌道,促使時任美國國務卿邁克·蓬佩奧呼籲追究德黑蘭的責任,因為他認為這一行動違反了聯合國安理會的一項決議。 Russia to give Iran advanced satellite that could track IDF bases - report The plan would deliver a Russian-made Kanopus-V satellite equipped with a high-resolution camera which could be launched from Russia within months, the Post said. By REUTERS, JERUSALEM POST STAFF JUNE 11, 2021 07:19 A satellite (photo credit: INGIMAGE) Advertisement Russia is preparing to provide Iran with an advanced satellite that would enable it to track potential military targets across the Middle East, the Washington Post reported on Thursday. The satellite is projected to have the ability to track long-range targets, including IDF bases, as well as oil refineries throughout the Persian Gulf and Iraqi bases for US troops. The plan would deliver a Russian-made Kanopus-V satellite equipped with a high-resolution camera which could be launched from Russia within months, the Post said. The report was published days before US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet in Geneva and as Iran and the United States are engaged in indirect talks on reviving a 2015 nuclear deal designed to put curbs on Iran's nuclear program in exchange for easing economic sanctions. The satellite would allow "continuous monitoring of facilities ranging from Persian Gulf oil refineries and Israeli military bases to Iraqi barracks that house US troops," said the paper, which cited three unnamed sources - a current and a former US official and a senior Middle Eastern government official briefed on the sale. While the Kanopus-V is marketed for civilian use, leaders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps have made several trips to Russia since 2018 to help negotiate the agreement, the Post said. Russian experts traveled to Iran this spring to help train crews who would operate the satellite from a newly built facility near Karaj west of Tehran, it added. The satellite would feature Russian hardware, the Post said, "including a camera with a resolution of 1.2 meters — a significant improvement over Iran’s current capabilities, though still far short of the quality achieved by US spy satellites." The Revolutionary Guards said in April 2020 that they had successfully launched the country's first military satellite into orbit, prompting then-US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to call for Tehran to be held accountable because he believed the action defied a UN Security Council resolution. 美國允許聯合國付款後,伊朗重新獲得聯合國投票權 聯合國發言人法爾漢哈克週五表示:“伊朗已經支付了最低數額,”確認伊朗可以再次投票。 通過路透 2021 年 6 月 11 日 19:39 伊朗恢復了在投票聯合國聯大上週五美國啟用德黑蘭凍結在韓國支付16約$百萬應當對世界機構資金使用後。 伊朗在 1 月份的 193 個成員國大會上失去了投票權,因為它拖欠了兩年多。它總共欠了超過 6500 萬美元,但支付了重新獲得投票權所需的最低金額。 聯合國發言人法爾漢哈克週五表示:“伊朗已經支付了最低數額,”確認伊朗可以再次投票。 伊朗表示,自 2018 年以來,在時任美國總統唐納德特朗普實施的製裁下,其 200 億美元的石油收入已被凍結在韓國、伊拉克和中國等國。 伊朗駐聯合國大使馬吉德·塔赫特·拉萬奇(Majid Takht Ravanchi)在推特上寫道:“美國的非法制裁不僅剝奪了我們人民的醫藥,還阻止了伊朗支付我們拖欠聯合國的會費。” “經過6個多月的努力,聯合國今天宣布已收到資金。” 伊朗能夠在周五的大會上投票選出聯合國安理會的五名新成員。 伊朗外交部表示,已向聯合國提議,可以使用在韓國凍結的資金支付會費。它表示,該國際機構與美國財政部進行了跟進,以獲得適當的批准。 伊朗外交部發言人賽義德·哈蒂布扎德說:“許可證是最近簽發的,從伊朗在韓國銀行的賬戶中提取會費並將其轉入首爾的聯合國賬戶的過程已經鋪好,這筆款項將很快支付。”上個星期。 當上週被問及這個問題時,美國財政部表示“不對具體的許可證發表評論”。 聯合國付款之際,美國總統喬·拜登 (Joe Biden) 政府和伊朗官員預計將於本週末在維也納開始第六輪間接會談,討論雙方如何恢復遵守 2015 年核協議。 根據與主要世界大國的協議,伊朗限制其核計劃,以使其更難獲得用於原子武器的裂變材料,以換取美國、歐盟和聯合國製裁的緩解。 然而,特朗普在 2018 年放棄了該協議,認為它為德黑蘭提供了過多的製裁減免,因為核限制太少,並重新實施了削減伊朗石油出口的製裁。大約一年後,伊朗通過違反其核計劃的限制進行報復。 Iran regains UN vote after US enables UN payment "Iran has paid the minimum amount due," UN spokesman Farhan Haq said on Friday, confirming Iran could vote again. By REUTERS JUNE 11, 2021 19:39 Iran's President Hassan Rouhani attends a meeting with United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres on the sidelines of the 74th session of the United Nations General Assembly at UN headquarters in New York City, New York, US, September 25, 2019. (photo credit: REUTERS/YANA PASKOVA) Advertisement Iran regained its vote in the UN General Assembly on Friday after the United States enabled Tehran to use funds frozen in South Korea to pay some $16 million it owed to the world body. Iran lost its vote in the 193-member General Assembly in January because it was more than two years in arrears. It owed a total of more than $65 million, but paid the minimum amount needed to regain its vote. "Iran has paid the minimum amount due," UN spokesman Farhan Haq said on Friday, confirming Iran could vote again. Iran says $20 billion of its oil revenue has been frozen in countries like South Korea, Iraq and China since 2018 under sanctions imposed by then-US President Donald Trump. "Illegal US sanctions have not just deprived our people of medicine; they have also prevented Iran from paying our dues in arrears to the UN," Iran's UN Ambassador Majid Takht Ravanchi posted on Twitter. "After more than 6 months of working on it, the UN today announced it has received the funds." Iran was able to vote in the General Assembly on Friday to elect five new members of the UN Security Council. Iran's Foreign Ministry said that it had proposed to the United Nations that it could use funds frozen in South Korea to pay its dues. It said the world body followed up with the US Treasury Department to get the appropriate approvals. "The permit was recently issued and the process of withdrawing the membership fee from Iran's account in the Korean banks and transferring it to the UN account in Seoul has been paved, and this payment will be made soon," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said last week. When asked about the issue last week, the US Treasury Department said it "does not comment on specific licenses." The UN payment comes as US President Joe Biden's administration and Iranian officials are expected to begin their sixth round of indirect talks in Vienna this weekend about how both sides might resume compliance with a 2015 nuclear deal. Under the deal with key world powers, Iran limited its nuclear program to make it harder to obtain fissile material for atomic weapons in return for relief from US, European Union and UN sanctions. However, Trump abandoned the deal in 2018, arguing it gave Tehran too much sanctions relief for too few nuclear restrictions, and reimposed sanctions that slashed Iran's oil exports. Iran then retaliated about a year later by violating the limits on its nuclear program. 火箭再次瞄準美國在伊拉克的設施 這些火箭彈是過去兩年對駐伊拉克美軍的多次襲擊之一。 作者:SETH J. FRANZMAN 2021 年 6 月 10 日 15:36 2015 年 7 月 13 日,美國 F-16 戰鬥機抵達巴格達以北的巴拉德軍事基地。 (照片來源:路透社/STRINGER) 根據美國軍方的一份聲明,週三,三枚火箭瞄準了伊拉克中部薩拉丁省的巴拉德空軍基地。這些火箭彈是過去兩年對駐伊拉克美軍的多次襲擊之一。 這些襲擊通常由與官方准軍事團體和政黨有聯繫的親伊朗民兵組織實施。過去,他們使用了 107 毫米。和 122 毫米。火箭,還有無人機。至少有四次無人機襲擊了埃爾比勒和阿薩德空軍基地的美國設施。 雖然巴拉德空軍基地有美國承包商,但美國已指出該基地沒有美軍。然而,它一直是一個常見的目標。Sabareen 新聞首先報導了這一事件,然後伊拉克的其他報導似乎證實了這一點。 週三對伊朗和伊拉克來說是吉祥的一天。據報導,當天早些時候,伊斯蘭革命衛隊的聖城旅負責人埃斯梅爾·加尼抵達巴格達。此外,卡薩姆·穆斯利赫在面臨先前襲擊美軍和殺害伊拉克抗議者的指控後被釋放出獄。他是 Al-Tofuf (Liwa Al-Tafuf) 旅的指揮官,據稱與親伊朗的民兵有聯繫。 中東分析家、專家傑森·布羅德斯基 (Jason Brodsky) 在推特上表示,穆斯利赫的旅是為了保護伊拉克卡爾巴拉的什葉派聖地而成立的,他被認為與伊拉克什葉派社區領導人阿亞圖拉西斯塔尼關係密切。 等待貝內特-拉皮德政府的外交挑戰是什麼? 然而,穆斯利赫顯然被驅逐出親西斯塔尼部隊,並在幾年前成立了自己的親伊朗部隊。該部隊被指控在 2017 年的衝突中襲擊了庫爾德人。在過去的幾年裡,他是安巴爾省的主要親伊朗指揮官。伊拉克的親伊朗民兵殺害了抗議者並威脅總理。近年來,他們還威脅以色列。 上個月,媒體報導稱洛克希德·馬丁公司因受到威脅而從巴拉德撤回了從事 F-16 的承包商。也有 Sallyport Global 的承包商駐紮在 Balad。2 月,四枚火箭瞄準了該基地。3 月,又向該基地發射了5 枚火箭。4 月 18 日,以美國為首的聯軍錶示,“據報導,巴拉德空軍基地今晚遭到火箭襲擊。巴拉德空軍基地沒有聯軍/美軍駐紮。” 那天晚上向基地發射了六枚火箭。 2019 年 6 月的報導稱,現場約有 400 名員工或承包商,其中一些人當時因受到威脅而被疏散。根據 The Drive 的一份報告,其餘 70 名洛克希德承包商中的 20 名原定於 5 月前往埃爾比勒。 Rockets target US facility in Iraq, again These rockets are one of many attacks on US forces in Iraq over the last two years. By SETH J. FRANTZMAN JUNE 10, 2021 15:36 US F-16 fighter jet arrives at a military base in Balad, north of Baghdad July 13, 2015. (photo credit: REUTERS/STRINGER) Advertisement Three rockets targeted Balad Air Base in central Iraq’s Saladin province on Wednesday, according to a US military statement. These rockets are one of many attacks on US forces in Iraq over the last two years. The attacks are usually carried out by pro-Iranian militias linked to official paramilitary groups and political parties. In the past, they have used 107 mm. and 122 mm. rockets, as well as drones. There have been at least four drone attacks on US facilities in Erbil and Al Asad Air Base. While the Balad Air Base has US contractors, the US has pointed out that it does not have American troops on the base. Nevertheless, it has been a frequent target. Sabareen news first reported the incident and then other reports in Iraq appeared to confirm it. Wednesday was an auspicious day for Iran and Iraq. Earlier in the day, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force head Esmail Ghaani reportedly arrived in Baghdad. Additionally, Qassam Muslih was released from prison after facing accusations of previous attacks against US forces and killing Iraqi protesters. He is Al-Tofuf (Liwa Al-Tafuf) brigade commander and allegedly linked to pro-Iran militias. Muslih’s brigade was formed to protect a Shia shrine in Karbala, Iraq, and he was considered close to Ayatollah Sistani, the leader of Iraq’s Shi’ite community, according to expert Jason Brodsky, a Middle East analyst, who tweeted about the incident. However, Muslih was apparently expelled from the pro-Sistani unit and established his own pro-Iran unit several years ago. The unit was accused of attacks on Kurds during 2017 clashes. He was a key pro-Iranian commander in Anbar province over the last years. Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq have killed protesters and threatened the prime minister. They have also threatened Israel in recent years. Last month, media reports claimed that Lockheed Martin had pulled contractors working on F-16s from Balad because of threats. There are also contractors of Sallyport Global stationed at Balad. In February, four rockets targeted the base. In March another five rockets were fired at the base. On April 18 the US-led coalition said that “it is being reported that Balad Air Base was attacked with rockets tonight. There are no coalition/US forces stationed at Balad Air base.” Six rockets were fired at the base that night. In June 2019 reports said there were some 400 employees or contractors at the site and some were to be evacuated at that time due to threats. 20 of the remaining 70 Lockheed contractors were supposed to go to Erbil in May according to a report by The Drive. 拉皮德在即將到來的“變革政府”中與所有政黨敲定了聯盟協議 Yamina 是最後一個在周日宣誓就職投票前,在周五下午截止日期前正式宣布與 Yesh Atid 簽署協議的派系 通過TOI人員今天,上午 9:47更新於下午 2:42 一張蒙太奇照片顯示了所謂的“更迭政府”中的八個政黨的領導人:從左上角順時針方向:梅拉夫·米凱利(工黨)、納夫塔利·貝內特(亞米娜)、本尼·甘茨(藍白)、阿維格多·利伯曼(伊斯雷爾·貝特努) )、Gideon Sa'ar (New Hope)、Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid)、Mansour Abbas (Ra'am) 和 Nitzan Horowitz (Meretz)。(所有照片:Flash90) 聯手取代以總理本雅明·內塔尼亞胡為首的即將卸任的聯盟的八個政黨之間的聯盟協議於週五完成並簽署,為由 61 人組成的聯盟於週日宣誓就職鋪平了道路,結束了內塔尼亞胡的 12 年任期。辦公室。 Yesh Atid 領導人 Yair Lapid 於週五早上與 Ra'am 和 Yisrael Beytenu 政黨簽署了聯盟協議。幾小時後,Yesh Atid 與工黨、藍白黨、新希望黨和亞米納黨簽署並發布了協議,亞米納是最後一個正式宣布交易已敲定的人。 協議的簽署是在 Yesh Atid 前一天與 Meretz 敲定聯盟協議之後簽署的。梅雷茨的中央委員會於週五批准了該協議。 根據以色列法律,聯合協議必須提交給以色列議會,並在宣誓就職投票前至少 24 小時公佈。然而,由於計劃在周日下午 4 點開始的以色列議會會議上進行投票——週六是猶太人的休息日,不計算在內——新興聯盟的政黨必須在周五下午之前完成並提交協議。 Yesh Atid 和 Yamina 的聯合聲明說,所有協議都已提交給以色列議會秘書處。 聲明說:“這些協議以及新政府的核心原則對公眾開放,可以進行審查。” Yamina 領導人 Naftali Bennett(左)和 Yesh Atid 領導人 Yair Lapid 在以色列議會,2021 年 6 月 2 日。(Olivier Fitoussi/Flash90) 根據新聯盟的條款,亞米娜的納夫塔利·貝內特將擔任總理至 2023 年 8 月,屆時拉皮德將接替他的職位,直至 2025 年 11 月以色列議會任期結束。 “這些協議的簽署結束了兩年半的政治危機。我們面臨著巨大的挑戰,所有以色列公民都對我們充滿希望,”貝內特在聲明中說。“政府將為所有以色列公眾——宗教的、世俗的、極端正統的、阿拉伯的——無一例外地作為一個整體。” 拉皮德發誓政府會優先考慮對國家最有利的事情。 “這就是這個團結政府的成立目的。這個政府的所有合作夥伴首先都致力於為以色列人民服務,”他在聲明中說。 (LR) Yisrael Beytenu 領袖 Avigdor Liberman、Yesh Atid 領袖 Yair Lapid、Yamina 主席 Naftali Bennett、新希望主席 Gideon Sa'ar、藍白黨主席 Benny Gantz、Ra'am 主席 Mansour Abbas、工黨領袖 Merav Michaeli 和 Meretz 領袖 Nitzan霍洛維茨於 2021 年 6 月 6 日在特拉維夫舉行的潛在聯盟首腦會議上。 (Ra'anan Cohen) 在 3 月 23 日的選舉中贏得席位的 13 個政黨中的 8 個支持預期的拉皮德-貝內特政府,預計在 120 名議員中總共獲得 61 票:Yesh Atid(17 個席位)、藍白黨(8 個) , Yisrael Beytenu (7), Labor (7), Yamina (7 個 MKs 中的 6 個), New Hope (6), Meretz (6) 和 Ra'am (4)。 除了保守的伊斯蘭黨 Ra'am 之外,該聯盟代表了前所未有的多元化政黨組合,從右翼(Yamina、New Hope 和 Yisrael Beytenu)到中間(Yesh Atid 和 Blue and White),再到左翼(工黨和 Meretz) . 他們的領導人團結起來反對內塔尼亞胡的持續統治,他們發誓要努力通過共識來彌合以色列社會的裂痕,而不會跨越他們自己的意識形態紅線。 最近幾天,內塔尼亞胡一直試圖從一些政黨的隊伍中吸引脫北者,但沒有成功。就目前情況而言,預計 Bennett-Lapid 聯盟將以極薄的 61-59 票在以色列議會獲得批准。 在新興聯盟協議下的最高部長職位方面,拉皮德將在政府的頭兩年擔任外交部長,藍白黨領袖本尼·甘茨將繼續擔任國防部長,財政部將由以色列領導人貝特努(Yisrael Beytenu)領導人阿維格多(Avigdor)擔任。利伯曼。新希望黨領袖 Gideon Sa'ar 將擔任司法部長,而 Yamina 的 Ayelet Shaked 將擔任內政部長。工黨的梅拉夫·米凱利(Merav Michaeli)獲得了交通部長職務,她的同黨成員奧馬爾·巴列夫(Omer Barlev)將擔任公安部長。梅雷茨領導人尼贊霍洛維茨將被任命為衛生部長,而同黨成員塔馬爾贊德伯格將被任命為環境保護部長。 Yesh Atid 將獲得四個部長職位,而 Yamina 將獲得三個。New Hope 和 Blue and White 各有四個部委,而 Yisrael Beytenu、Labor 和 Meretz 各有三個部委。 Ra'am 和 Yesh Atid 之間的交易包括 Ra'am 在總理辦公室的副部長職位、以色列議會內政委員會主席、以色列議會副議長和阿拉伯事務委員會主席。 該協議還包括努力通過一項到 2026 年總額為 300 億新謝克爾的五年支出計劃,以:“縮小阿拉伯、德魯茲、切爾克斯和貝都因社會的差距”;批准價值 25 億新謝克爾的五年打擊犯罪計劃;通過一項 200 億新謝克爾的阿拉伯社區交通基礎設施計劃;將卡米尼茨法關於建築限制的凍結期延長至 2024 年底;並在政府宣誓就職後 45 天內正式承認南部的三個貝都因社區。 在與 Yisrael Beytenu 的協議中,雙方同意政府將推進利伯曼右翼世俗主義政黨競選的政策,例如在所有學校和公共交通在安息日教授核心課程。 與財政部一起,Yisrael Beteynu 還將擔任農業部和議會財政委員會主席,該黨還可以任命另一位財政部部長,其立法者之一將是議會副議長。 Yisrael Beytenu 主席 Avigdor Liberman 在 2021 年 5 月 31 日的以色列議會派系會議上發表講話。 (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90) 與工黨的聯合協議保證了中左翼政黨的立法者在眾多政府和議會委員會中的席位,包括在貝內特擔任總理的政府頭兩年擔任議會憲法、法律和司法委員會主席。在拉皮德接任首相職位後,Yesh Atid Knesset 成員將擔任委員會主席,而 Michaeli 將在司法任命委員會獲得一席之地。 Yesh Atid 和工黨之間的協議還表明,沒有後者的簽字,任何其他派係都不能加入聯盟。 與 Blue and White 一起,Yesh Atid 同意成立一個州調查委員會,以調查今年在以色列北部梅隆山舉行的 Lag B'Omer 慶祝活動期間的致命擠壓事件,其中 45 人被殺。 與新希望的交易包括一項推進立法的協議,將任何總理的任期限制在八年,這可能會限制內塔尼亞胡的政治生涯。 新希望黨領袖 Gideon Sa'ar 於 2021 年 3 月 7 日在耶路撒冷的一次會議上發表講話。 (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90) 各方簽署的聯盟指導原則包括維持宗教和國家事務現狀的承諾。Yamina 將能夠否決任何涉及宗教和國家事務的法案,但也在一份聲明中表示,它將努力促進 Kosher 監管領域的競爭。 各方同意,聯盟將努力通過國防部版本的立法,正式豁免許多極端正統神學院學生的義務兵役。新興聯盟表示,它還計劃研究國家替代役作為某些通常不在軍隊服役的人口群體——哈雷迪猶太人和阿拉伯以色列人——替代兵役的可能性。 根據聯盟協議,即將上任的政府還將在國防部下屬的西岸 C 區保持所有民事控制和執法。聯盟原則指出,Gantz 將被分配某些資源,以幫助在 C 區更好地執行建築法規,C 區大約有 60% 的西岸由以色列軍事和文職人員控制。 據報導,最高級別的安全內閣將包括三名 Yamina 成員——Bennett、Shaked 和 Matan Kahana。New Hope 將有三名成員——Sa'ar、Elkin 和 Yoaz Hendel,以及 Yisrael Beytenu 的 Liberman。Yesh Atid 只有一名安全內閣成員:拉皮德。工黨還將有兩名代表——Michaeli 和 Bar-Lev;藍白的一位代表——甘茨;還有一位來自梅雷茨——霍洛維茨。 Lapid finalizes coalition deals with all parties in incoming ‘change government’ Yamina is the last faction to formally announce it has signed an agreement with Yesh Atid before Friday afternoon deadline, ahead of Sunday’s swearing-in vote By TOI STAFFToday, 9:47 amUpdated at 2:42 pm Coalition agreements between the eight parties that have joined forces to replace the outgoing coalition headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were completed and signed Friday, paving the way for the 61-strong coalition to be sworn in on Sunday, ending Netanyahu’s 12-year term in office. Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid inked coalition agreements with the Ra’am and Yisrael Beytenu parties on Friday morning. Hours later, Yesh Atid signed and released agreements with the Labor, Blue and White, New Hope and Yamina parties, with Yamina the last to formally announce a deal had been finalized. The signing of the agreements came after Yesh Atid finalized a coalition deal with Meretz the day before. Meretz’s central committee ratified the agreement on Friday. Under Israeli law, coalition agreements must be submitted to the Knesset and made public at least 24 hours before the swearing-in vote. However, with the vote scheduled for a Knesset session that begins at 4 p.m. on Sunday — and with Saturday, the Jewish day of rest, not counting — the parties in the emerging coalition had until Friday afternoon to finalize and submit the agreements. A joint statement from Yesh Atid and Yamina said all the agreements had been submitted to the Knesset Secretariat. “The agreements, along with the new government’s core principles, are open to the public and can be reviewed,” the statement said. Under the terms of the new coalition, Yamina’s Naftali Bennett is to serve as prime minister until August 2023, when Lapid will take over from him until the end of the Knesset term in November 2025. “The signing of these agreements brings to an end two and a half years of political crisis. We are faced with great challenges, and all the citizens of Israel are looking to us with hope,” Bennett was quoted saying in the statement. “The government will work for all the Israeli public — religious, secular, ultra-Orthodox, Arab — without exception, as one.” Lapid vowed the government would prioritize what’s best for the country. “That’s what this unity government has been formed to do. All the partners in this government are committed, first and foremost, to the people of Israel,” he said in the statement. (L-R) Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman, Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid, Yamina chair Naftali Bennett, New Hope chair Gideon Sa’ar, Blue and White head Benny Gantz, Ra’am chair Mansour Abbas, Labor head Merav Michaeli and Meretz leader Nitzan Horowitz at a meeting of the heads of the would-be-coalition in Tel Aviv, June 6, 2021. (Ra’anan Cohen) The intended Lapid-Bennett government is backed by eight of the 13 parties that won seats in the March 23 election, for an expected total of 61 votes in the 120-member Knesset: Yesh Atid (17 seats), Blue and White (8), Yisrael Beytenu (7), Labor (7), Yamina (6 of its 7 MKs), New Hope (6), Meretz (6) and Ra’am (4). The coalition represents an unprecedentedly diverse mix of parties, from right (Yamina, New Hope and Yisrael Beytenu) to center (Yesh Atid and Blue and White), to left (Labor and Meretz), in addition to the conservative Islamic Party Ra’am. Their leaders, which unified in opposition to Netanyahu’s continued rule, have vowed to try to work via consensus to heal rifts in Israeli society without crossing their own ideological red lines. Netanyahu has been trying to woo defectors from the ranks of some of the parties in recent days, without success. As things stand, the Bennett-Lapid coalition is expected to be approved in the Knesset by a wafer-thin 61-59 votes. In terms of top ministerial positions under the emerging coalition agreements, Lapid will serve as foreign minister in the first two years of the government, Blue and White leader Benny Gantz will remain defense minister, and the Finance Ministry will be held by Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman. New Hope leader Gideon Sa’ar will be justice minister, while Yamina’s Ayelet Shaked will be interior minister. Labor’s Merav Michaeli received the transportation portfolio and her fellow party member Omer Barlev will be public security minister. Meretz leader Nitzan Horowitz will be appointed health minister, while fellow party member Tamar Zandberg will be environmental protection minister. Yesh Atid will start with four ministerial positions, and Yamina will get three. New Hope and Blue and White will have four ministries each, while Yisrael Beytenu, Labor and Meretz will each have three. The deal between Ra’am and Yesh Atid includes a deputy ministerial post for Ra’am in the Prime Minister’s Office, chairmanship of the Knesset Interior Committee, a deputy Knesset speaker and chairmanship of the Arab Affairs Committee. That deal also includes agreements to work to pass a five-year spending plan totaling NIS 30 billion through 2026 to: “reduce gaps in Arab, Druze, Circassian and Bedouin society”; approve a five-year crime-fighting plan worth NIS 2.5 billion; adopt a NIS 20 billion plan for transportation infrastructure in Arab communities; extend a freeze of the Kaminitz Law on building restrictions until the end of 2024; and formally recognize three Bedouin communities in the south within 45 days of the government’s swearing-in. In the agreement with Yisrael Beytenu, the parties agreed the government will advance policies that Liberman’s right-wing secularist party campaigned on, such as the teaching of core curriculum subjects in all schools and public transport on the Sabbath. Along with the Finance Ministry, Yisrael Beteynu will also receive the Agriculture Ministry and the chairmanship of the Knesset Finance Committee, The party also can appoint another minister in the Treasury and one of its lawmakers will be a deputy Knesset speaker. The coalition agreement with Labor guarantees spots for the center-left party’s lawmakers on numerous governmental and parliamentary committees, including the chairmanship of the Knesset’s Constitution, Law, and Justice Committee during the government’s first two years when Bennett is prime minister. After Lapid takes over the premiership, a Yesh Atid Knesset member will chair the committee while Michaeli will get a spot on the Judicial Appointments Committee. The deal between Yesh Atid and Labor also says no additional factions can join the coalition without the latter’s sign-off. With Blue and White, Yesh Atid agreed to form a state commission of inquiry to probe the deadly crush during Lag B’Omer celebrations at Mount Meron in northern Israel this year, in which 45 people were killed. The deal with New Hope included an agreement to advance legislation that would limit any prime minister to eight years in office, potentially curtailing Netanyahu’s political career. The coalition’s guiding principles that all parties signed onto include a commitment to maintain the status quo regarding religion and state affairs. Yamina will be able to veto any bill concerning matters of religion and state, but also said in a statement that it would work to promote competition in the field of kosher supervision. The parties agreed that the coalition will work to pass a Defense Ministry version of legislation formalizing exemptions to mandatory military service for many ultra-Orthodox seminary students. The emerging coalition said it also plans to examine the possibility of national civil service as an alternative to military service for certain demographic groups that generally don’t serve in the military — Haredi Jews and Arab Israelis. The incoming government will also keep all civil control and enforcement in Area C of the West Bank under the Defense Ministry, according to the coalition agreements. The coalition principles state that Gantz will be allocated certain resources to help better enforce building regulations in Area C, the roughly 60 percent of the West Bank that is under Israeli military and civilian control. The top-level security cabinet will reportedly include three Yamina members — Bennett, Shaked and Matan Kahana. There will be three members of New Hope — Sa’ar, Elkin and Yoaz Hendel, along with Yisrael Beytenu’s Liberman. Yesh Atid will only have one security cabinet member: Lapid. There will also be two representatives from Labor — Michaeli and Bar-Lev; one representative from Blue and White — Gantz; and one from Meretz — Horowitz. 在令人驚嘆的啟示性採訪中,前摩薩德酋長警告伊朗,為內塔尼亞胡辯護 下台幾天后,約西·科恩詳細介紹了摩薩德對德黑蘭核計劃採取的行動、他在阿聯酋交易中的角色、他在加沙的錯誤以及他的總理希望 通過TOI人員今天,凌晨 1:49 · 2021 年 6 月 10 日,前摩薩德首領約西·科恩在接受 12 頻道採訪時(截屏) 上週退休的摩薩德領導人尤西·科恩在一次非凡的採訪中提供了摩薩德最近針對伊朗的活動、他與總理本傑明·內塔尼亞胡的互動、他在以色列與阿聯酋正常化中的作用以及他自己的臥底生涯的非常具體的細節星期四晚上在以色列電視台播出。 科恩暗示他的機構炸毀了伊朗位於納坦茲的地下離心機設施,並準確描述了 2018 年摩薩德從德黑蘭倉庫的保險箱中竊取伊朗核檔案的行動,證實伊朗被暗殺的頂級核科學家 Mohsen Fakhrizadeh 曾在摩薩德的多年來,並表示該政權需要了解以色列在誓言阻止伊朗獲得核武器時的意思。 內塔尼亞胡任命的科恩似乎是摩薩德首領在其現役即將結束時所進行的最具啟發性的採訪中說,他不排除有朝一日尋求成為總理,儘管他暫時沒有考慮這樣的野心。 這次採訪大概得到了以色列軍事審查員的批准,科恩在很多場合都保持謹慎,但仍然以一種完全不典型的間諜首領,尤其是那些剛剛結束服役的間諜首領的公開和細節,談論了他的職業生涯、哲學和關鍵行動。 在以色列第 12 頻道記者 Ilan Dayan 的“Uvda”(事實)紀錄片節目的一個多小時對話中,科恩表示他對伊朗的各種核設施非常熟悉,並表示,如果有機會,他會把達揚帶到納坦茲的地下“地下室” ,他說,“離心機曾經在那裡旋轉。” 通過電子郵件獲取《以色列時報》每日版,不要錯過我們的頭條新聞免費註冊 伊朗國家電視台於 2021 年 4 月 17 日播出了納坦茲核設施的鏡頭。(屏幕截圖/推特) “看起來不像以前了?” 大衍問道。 “確實如此,”科恩說。 “除非他們修好了,”她說。 “它看起來不像以前那樣,”科恩堅持說。 科恩在採訪中沒有明確確認對納坦茲的破壞負責,但更籠統地說:“我們[對伊朗]說得很清楚:我們不會讓你得到核武器。你有什麼不明白的?” 2021 年 6 月 10 日,前摩薩德首領約西·科恩(右)在接受第 12 頻道的伊拉娜·達揚(Ilana Dayan)廣播採訪時(截屏) 達揚指出,在過去一年中,外國報告將納坦茲的兩次重大爆炸歸咎於摩薩德,並表示“大量炸藥”被內置在一個大理石平台上,用於平衡離心機。“很明顯,對這些爆炸負責的人確保向伊朗人提供放置離心機的大理石基礎,”達揚說。“當他們在納坦茲設施內安裝這個基礎時,他們不知道它已經包含了大量的炸藥。” 觀看法赫里扎德 對於被以色列認定為伊朗流氓核武器計劃之父的法赫里扎德,他於 2020 年 11 月在德黑蘭附近的一次伏擊中喪生,這被廣泛認為是以色列所為,科恩說,他被摩薩德監視了多年,摩薩德是在 2020 年 11 月之前與他物理上接近 Mohsen Fakhrizadeh 於 2020 年 11 月 27 日在伊朗首都德黑蘭以東的一個小城市 Absard 被殺的場景(法爾斯通訊社,美聯社);插圖:Mohsen Fakhrizadeh 未註明日期的照片(提供) 科恩說,“從科學、知識和伊朗軍事核計劃的科學家的角度來看,法赫里扎德最讓我們感到困擾,”因此,“他多年來一直是[情報]收集的目標。” 採訪者達揚談到法赫里扎德的遇害時說:“約西·科恩不能為這次行動負責,但他的個人簽名在整個行動中。” 當被問及他是否認為殺害強大的以色列敵人是值得的時,科恩說:“如果這個人構成了危及以色列公民的能力,他必須停止存在。” 然而,在某些情況下,科恩說,以色列向這樣一個潛在目標傳達了一個信息,即“如果他準備改變職業並且不再傷害我們,那麼是的”——這意味著這樣一個目標將被免除。 大雁問,有沒有這樣的人得到暗示並成為鋼琴演奏者? 是的,科恩說,並補充說這讓他很高興。然而,其他人,他說,沒有得到這樣的信息,即他們不應該拒絕這個提議。 對於摩薩德的所有行動,“伊朗人比以往任何時候都更接近”炸彈,”達揚建議道。“不是這樣,”科恩說。“這不是真的。” 在德黑蘭倉庫工作 7 小時 在採訪中,科恩描述了摩薩德在 2018 年 1 月 31 日晚上從德黑蘭倉庫盜竊大量伊朗核文件檔案的計劃和執行——以色列公開承認這一行動。 德黑蘭南部肖拉巴德的一個倉庫,摩薩德特工在那裡發現並提取了數万份與伊朗核武器計劃有關的秘密文件(總理辦公室) 他說,他在特拉維夫的摩薩德指揮中心負責這項行動,兩年前,根據他的指示,該機構已開始為此努力。 “我們知道他們正在秘密儲存他們的核機密——我們不知道的事情……我決定我們需要看看伊朗人正在為我們計劃什麼,”科恩說,“我告訴我的人準備把它帶回家”,因為它可能會展示伊朗計劃的“更廣泛的圖景”。 達揚說,有 20 名摩薩德特工在現場參與其中——他們中沒有一個是以色列國民。 科恩指出,摩薩德建造了該遺址的複製品,了解了所有關於盛放材料的容器的信息,並知道這些容器是如何排列的。科恩說,當晚“我們遇到了一些問題”,“我們認識到的事情”顯然已經發生了變化,但決定按計劃進行。 科恩說,他們知道他們在現場最多有 7 個小時的時間——“在那之後卡車、警衛和工人”會到達,“你不能跳下圍欄,衝破牆壁。” 該團隊解除了警報,拆除了倉庫門,並據報導打開了 32 個存放這些材料的保險箱。科恩說,打開這樣的保險箱需要“每一個都超過幾分鐘”。 德黑蘭南部肖拉巴德倉庫內的保險箱,摩薩德特工在那裡發現並提取了數万份與伊朗核武器計劃有關的秘密文件(總理辦公室) 當在特拉維夫指揮中心實時篩選保險箱中的波斯語文件和其他材料的圖像時,“我們意識到我們擁有了我們想要的東西,我們正在‘實施’伊朗的軍事核計劃,”科恩說, “我們所有人都感到難以置信的興奮。” 達揚表示,摩薩德有許多誘餌卡車在德黑蘭地區周圍行駛,以驅散伊朗人通過陸路將 50,000 份文件和 163 個光盤帶出伊朗的單一卡車的氣味,科恩沒有否認這一點。 他說,伊朗人到早上就知道倉庫已經空了,所有從該國的出口都已關閉。“我們知道他們會追我們,”他說。“我們已經竊取了他們最敏感的秘密。” Dayan 透露,由於擔心這些材料可能無法通過,在卡車越過邊境之前,大部分材料都以數字方式傳輸到特拉維夫。 科恩說,他告訴內塔尼亞胡“一旦我們離開現場……行動的第一部分就完成了”,現在的挑戰是將材料帶回家。 他說,所有特工都還活著,但其中一些人需要從伊朗撤離。 2018 年 4 月 30 日,以色列總理內塔尼亞胡在特拉維夫國防部就以色列獲得的文件發表講話,他說他證明伊朗對其核計劃撒謊。 (Miriam Alster/Flash90) 內塔尼亞胡在 2018 年 4 月的新聞發布會上公佈了這一寶庫,他在會上稱這次行動是“以色列歷史上最偉大的情報成就之一”,並證明“伊朗在聲稱不尋求核武器時撒謊”。 靠近內塔尼亞胡 科恩批評他與內塔尼亞胡過於親近,並允許總理利用摩薩德的這一成功和其他成功來滿足他的政治需要,他指出,在 2018 年 4 月的新聞發布會上,內塔尼亞胡討論了這些材料,但他“不討論手術。” 他說,以色列的所有安全負責人都與內塔尼亞胡一起討論了公開運輸的利弊,沒有人反對。 提醒他的前任塔米爾帕爾多反對“羞辱敵人”,科恩堅持認為揭露情報材料是正確的決定,內塔尼亞胡在這件事和他們的其他交易中都以“專業誠信”行事。 “世界應該看到[材料]對我們來說很重要,”科恩說,他指出他還親自向盟國情報負責人通報了情況。重要的是“要引起伊朗領導人的共鳴,對他們說,‘親愛的朋友們,1,你們已經被滲透了;2、我們在看著你;3 隱藏和謊言的時代結束了。” 在採訪中的其他爆料中,科恩說他年輕時受到英國特工電視劇“卡蘭”的啟發,卡蘭是他最初的摩薩德代號。後來因為他整潔的外表而被稱為“模特”。“我父親教我如何熨燙,”他指出。 個人生活 現年 59 歲的科恩在 22 歲時在倫敦留學時被摩薩德招募。他在東正教長大,加入時是摩薩德為數不多的東正教特工之一。他說他在職業生涯中擁有“數百本”護照,並招募了數百名資產。他將一名新兵描述為在歐洲招募的真主黨特工,他說他還活著。 科恩已婚並育有四個孩子,他簡短地談到了他的家人,包括他患有腦癱的兒子約納坦。 他於 2015 年 12 月被內塔尼亞胡任命,表示他希望從他為該組織工作的“第二天”開始成為摩薩德的負責人。 當被問及他與幾位富人的關係時,他說,回想起來,“你需要更加敏感”關於這種關係。 他說,帕克為他女兒的婚禮準備的一份大禮物“被退回了”。他否認與所報導的 20,000 美元一樣多,並表示已得到摩薩德的法律顧問的批准。他說,米爾昌向他提供了數百萬美元來開展網絡業務,他認真考慮過,如果他沒有被任命為摩薩德首領,他可能會接受這份工作。 2017 年 10 月 2 日,本傑明·內塔尼亞胡總理(左)和摩薩德領導約西·科恩在為猶太新年干杯。(Haim Zach/GPO) 他否認內塔尼亞胡曾問過他,當他被考慮擔任摩薩德最高職位時,他是否會親自“忠於”他。據報導,他的競爭對手代號為“N.”,被內塔尼亞胡提出了這樣的問題,顯然未能給出令人滿意的答案。科恩還表示,他從未與薩拉內塔尼亞胡討論過這個職位。 在談到他與內塔尼亞胡的關係時,科恩說:“我知道我為與 [內塔尼亞胡] 的親近付出了代價”,“我與總理的信任關係對摩薩德的行動及其發展非常有用。” 他否認有關他與內塔尼亞胡如此接近以至於損害了摩薩德的獨立性的指控。“我為最高目的而工作。我不為總理工作,”他說。 與阿聯酋的關係 他深入參與了以色列與阿拉伯聯合酋長國、巴林、蘇丹和摩洛哥的 2020 年正常化協議的製定,他表示,與阿聯酋建立關係需要“消除摩薩德2010 年在迪拜酒店房間暗殺哈馬斯高級官員所造成的障礙”圖為哈馬斯武器進口商 Mahmoud al-Mabhouh,他也因恐怖主義而被以色列通緝。當阿聯酋談判開始時,“這是一個我們需要拆除的地雷……它已經擺在桌面上”。“我們處理了它。我們消除了障礙,”他說。 “有些行動暴露在我們的悲痛之中,”他談到 Mabhouh 襲擊等事件時說。“當它暴露時,會很痛,很不愉快,很尷尬。” 他否認試圖在 2021 年 3 月 23 日選舉前安排一次前往阿聯酋的選舉前之行,從而在政治上幫助內塔尼亞胡。“摩薩德的工作計劃不受政治背景的影響,”他說。“我希望那次訪問能夠順利進行;巴林國王應該來——這對以色列國很重要。” 2020 年 9 月 13 日晚,摩薩德首領約西·科恩(左)登上飛往華盛頓的飛機,參加亞伯拉罕協議簽署儀式。 台階兩側分別掛著巴林、阿拉伯聯合酋長國、美國和以色列的國旗。(截屏) 在他在所謂的亞伯拉罕協議談判過程中的一次旅行中,他在一次飛行中告訴他的團隊,“我們現在的敵人少了很多——這是一件了不起的事情。” 達揚指出,他的工作還涉及與沙特人和其他許多人的接觸。 當被問及對摩薩德是以色列外交關係,使佔主導地位是否合適,科恩說,“2021年的摩薩德,如果你允許我,在我看來,有無處不在。” 錯誤的哈馬斯 他說,近年來他支持並親自幫助安排數億美元從卡塔爾流入加沙是錯誤的。他強調,這筆錢不是用於隧道和火箭,而是用於幫助加沙平民。他認為,如果加沙平民的生活得到改善,他說,“危機和戰爭的動機就會減少。“我錯了,”他說。 他不相信上個月與哈馬斯的為期 11 天的戰爭會爆發,原因相同:“我以為我們在‘安排’”,其中會保持冷靜。 當被問及摩薩德職業生涯結束後他最想念什麼時,科恩說:“成功完成手術後的興奮——我找不到類似的東西。” 從右到左:2021 年 6 月 1 日,本傑明·內塔尼亞胡總理、摩薩德新任局長大衛·巴尼亞和情報機構即將卸任的領導人尤西·科恩。(Kobi Gideon/GPO) 儘管如此,他補充道,“有人曾經說過,‘你只能攀登珠穆朗瑪峰一次。你插了旗子,現在你下去尋找下一個高峰。” 在這種情況下,當被問及他是否希望成為總理時,科恩說,“不是現在。” 但你沒有排除它?“正確,”他說。 In stunning, revelatory interview, ex-Mossad chief warns Iran, defends Netanyahu Days after stepping down, Yossi Cohen gives specific details of Mossad actions against Tehran nuke program, his role in UAE deal, his Gaza error, and his prime ministerial hopes By TOI STAFFToday, 1:49 am · Former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen in an interview with Channel 12 broadcast on June 10, 2021 (Screencapture) Yossi Cohen, who retired as head of the Mossad last week, provided highly specific details of recent Mossad activity against Iran, his interactions with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his role in Israel’s normalization with the UAE, and his own undercover career in an extraordinary interview on Israeli television broadcast on Thursday night. Cohen intimated that his agency blew up Iran’s underground centrifuge facility at Natanz, gave a precise description of the 2018 operation in which the Mossad stole Iran’s nuclear archive from safes in a Tehran warehouse, confirmed that Iran’s assassinated top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh had been in Mossad’s sights for years, and said the regime needs to understand that Israel means what it says when it vows to prevent Iran attaining nuclear weapons. In what would appear to be the most revelatory interview ever given by a Mossad chief so close to the end of his active service, Cohen, who was appointed by Netanyahu, said he did not rule out seeking to become prime minister one day, though he wasn’t contemplating such an ambition at the moment. The interview was presumably approved by Israel’s military censors, and Cohen was circumspect on numerous occasions, but nonetheless talked about his career, philosophy, and key operations with an openness and detail radically atypical of spy chiefs, especially those whose service has only recently ended. Early in the more than an hour of conversations for journalist Ilan Dayan’s “Uvda” (Fact) documentary show on Israel’s Channel 12, Cohen indicated that he was deeply familiar with Iran’s various nuclear sites, and said that, if given the opportunity, he would take Dayan to the underground “celler” at Natanz, where, he said, “the centrifuges used to spin.” Get The Times of Israel's Daily Edition by email and never miss our top storiesFREE SIGN UP Footage of the Natanz nuclear facility aired by Iranian state TV on April 17, 2021. (Screen capture/Twitter) “It no longer looks like it did?” Dayan asked. “Indeed,” said Cohen. “Unless they fixed it,” she said. “It doesn’t look like it used to look,” insisted Cohen. Cohen did not explicitly confirm responsibility for sabotage at Natanz in the interview, but said more generally: “We say very clearly [to Iran]: We won’t let you get nuclear weapons. What don’t you understand?” Former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen (R) in an interview with Channel 12’s Ilana Dayan broadcast on June 10, 2021 (Screencapture) Dayan noted that two major blasts at Natanz were attributed in foreign reports to the Mossad in the past year, and said “a huge quantity of explosives” were built into a marble platform used to balance the centrifuges. “The man who was responsible for these explosions, it becomes clear, made sure to supply to the Iranians the marble foundation on which the centrifuges are placed,” Dayan said. “As they install this foundation within the Natanz facility, they have no idea that it already includes a huge quantity of explosives.” Watching Fakhrizadeh Regarding Fakhrizadeh, identified by Israel as the father of Iran’s rogue nuclear weapons program, who was killed in an ambush near Tehran in November 2020 that has been widely attributed to Israel, Cohen said that he was watched by Mossad for years and that the Mossad was physically close to him before November 2020. The scene where Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was killed in Absard, a small city just east of the capital, Tehran, Iran, November 27, 2020 (Fars News Agency via AP); inset: Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in an undated photo (Courtesy) Fakhrizadeh “most troubled us from the point of view of the science, the knowledge, the scientists of the Iranian military nuclear program,” said Cohen, and therefore “he was a target for [intelligence] gathering for many years.” Interviewer Dayan said of Fakhrizadeh’s killing: “Yossi Cohen cannot take responsibility for this action, but his personal signature is on the entire operation.” Asked whether he believes killings of potent Israeli enemies are worthwhile, Cohen said: “If the man constitutes a capability that endangers the citizens of Israel, he must stop existing.” In some cases, however, Cohen said, Israel conveys the message to such a potential target that “if he is prepared to change profession and not harm us any longer, then yes” — implying such a target would be spared. Did any such people get the hint and become, say, a piano player, Dayan asked? Yes, said Cohen, and added that this pleased him. Others, however, he said, did not get the message that this was an offer they shouldn’t refuse. For all the Mossad’s actions, “the Iranians are closer than ever” to the bomb,” Dayan suggested. “Not so,” said Cohen. “That’s not true.” 7 hours in a Tehran warehouse In the interview, Cohen described the planning and execution of the Mossad’s theft of a vast archive of Iranian nuclear documents from a Tehran warehouse on the night of January 31, 2018 — an operation for which Israel has openly taken credit. A warehouse in Shorabad, south Tehran, where Mossad agents discovered and extracted tens of thousands of secret files pertaining to Iran’s nuclear weapons program (Prime Minister’s Office) He said he ran the operation from the Mossad command center in Tel Aviv, and that the agency had begun working towards it, on his instructions, two years earlier. “We understood they were secretly storing their nuclear secrets — things we didn’t know… I decided we needed to see what the Iranians are planning for us,” Cohen said, “and I told my people to prepare to bring this home” because it would potentially show “the wider picture” of the Iranian program. Twenty Mossad agents were involved on the ground — none of them Israeli nationals, said Dayan. Mossad built a replica of the site, learned all about the containers holding the material, and knew how the containers were arranged, Cohen indicated. “We had a certain problem” on the night itself, said Cohen, regarding “something we recognized” that had apparently changed, but the decision was taken to proceed as planned. Cohen said they knew they had seven hours maximum at the site — “after that trucks and guards and workers” would arrive and “you can’t be jumping off fences and bursting through walls.” The team neutralized alarms, removed the warehouse doors, and reportedly opened 32 safes holding the material. Opening safes like those takes “more than minutes for each,” Cohen said. Safes inside a warehouse in Shorabad, south Tehran, where Mossad agents discovered and extracted tens of thousands of secret files pertaining to Iran’s nuclear weapons program (Prime Minister’s Office) When images of the Farsi documents and other material in the safes were screened in the Tel Aviv command center in real-time “and we realized that we have what we wanted, that we are ‘on’ Iran’s military nuclear program,” said Cohen, “there was incredible excitement for us all.” Dayan indicated that Mossad had numerous decoy trucks driving around the Tehran area to throw the Iranians off the scent of the single truck bringing the 50,000 documents and 163 discs out of Iran over land, and Cohen did not deny this. He said the Iranians knew by the morning that the warehouse had been emptied, and all exit points from the country were closed. “We knew they’d chase us,” he said. “We’d taken their most sensitive secrets.” Because of concerns that the material might not make it out, much of it was transferred digitally to Tel Aviv before the truck crossed the border, Dayan revealed. Cohen said he told Netanyahu “once we had left the site… that the first part of the operation was completed,” and that now the challenge was to bring the material home. He said all the operatives are alive and well, though some of them needed to be extracted from Iran. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gives a speech on files obtained by Israel he says prove Iran lied about its nuclear program, at the Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv, on April 30, 2018. (Miriam Alster/Flash90) Netanyahu unveiled the trove at an April 2018 press conference, in which he called the operation “one of the greatest intelligence achievements in Israeli history” and proof that “Iran lied” when claiming that it is not seeking nuclear weapons. Close to Netanyahu Presented with criticism that he was too close to Netanyahu, and that he had allowed the prime minister to utilize this and other Mossad successes for his political needs, Cohen noted that at the April 2018 press conference, Netanyahu discussed the material, but he “didn’t discuss the operation.” He said all of Israel’s security chiefs discussed, together with Netanyahu, the pros and cons of making the haul public, and none of them opposed it. Reminded that his predecessor Tamir Pardo spoke out against “humiliating the enemy,” Cohen was adamant that exposing the intelligence material was the right decision and that Netanyahu acted with “professional integrity” in this and their other dealings. “It was important to us that the world should see [the material],” said Cohen, who noted that he also personally briefed allied intelligence chiefs. And it was important “that it resonate with the Iranian leadership, to say to them, ‘Dear friends, 1, you’ve been penetrated; 2, we are watching you; 3 the era of hiding and lies is over.” Among the other revelations in the interview, Cohen said he was inspired as a young man by the British secret service TV drama “Callan,” and that Callan was his initial Mossad codename. He later became known as “The Model” because of his well-groomed appearance. “My father taught me how to iron,” he noted. Personal life Cohen, 59, was recruited by Mossad at age 22 when studying overseas in London. He grew up Orthodox, and was one of the few Orthodox agents in the Mossad when he joined. He said he’d had “hundreds” of passports in his career, and recruited hundreds of assets. He described one recruit as a Hezbollah operative recruited in Europe who he said is still alive. Married with four children, Cohen spoke briefly about his family, including his son Yonatan, who has cerebral palsy. Appointed by Netanyahu in December 2015, he said he’d hoped to become Mossad chief “from the second day” he worked for the organization. Questioned about his ties to several wealthy individuals, including US-Israeli Holywood mogul Arnon Milchan and the Australian tycoon James Packer, both of whom figure in one of the corruption cases against Netanyahu, he said that in retrospect, “you need to be more sensitive” regarding such ties. He said a large gift by Packer for his daughter’s wedding was “being returned.” He denied it was as much as the reported $20,000, and said it had been approved by the Mossad’s legal advisor. He said Milchan offered him millions to start a cyber business, and that he seriously considered it and might have accepted the job if he had not been appointed Mossad chief. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) and Mossad head Yossi Cohen during a toast for the Jewish New Year on October 2, 2017. (Haim Zach/GPO) He denied that Netanyahu ever asked him if he would be personally “loyal” to him when he was considered for the top Mossad post. His rival for the job, codenamed “N.”, was reportedly asked such a question by Netanyahu and apparently failed to provide a satisfactory answer. Cohen also said he never discussed the post with Sara Netanyahu. Of his relationship with Netanyahu, Cohen said: “I know I pay a price for my closeness to [Netanyahu]” and that “the relationship of trust I have with the prime minister is very useful for the Mossad’s operations and its development.” He denied allegations that he is so close to Netanyahu as to have compromised the Mossad’s independence. “I work for the highest purpose. I don’t work for the prime minister,” he said. Relations with the UAE Deeply involved in the shaping of Israel’s 2020 normalization agreements with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, he said forging ties with the UAE had required “defusing the obstacle” posed by Mossad’s assassination in a Dubai hotel room in 2010 of senior Hamas figure, Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, a Hamas arms importer also wanted by Israel for terrorism. “It was a mine we needed to defuse… It was on the table” when the UAE negotiations got going. “We dealt with it. We removed the obstacle,” he said. “There are operations that are exposed, to our sorrow,” he said of incidents such as the Mabhouh hit. “When it’s exposed, it hurts, it’s unpleasant and it’s embarrassing.” He denied helping Netanyahu politically by trying to arrange a pre-election trip to the UAE before the March 23, 2021 elections. “Mossad work plans are not remotely influenced by the political background,” he said. “I wish that visit had gone ahead; the king of Bahrain was supposed to come to — it was important to the State of Israel.” Mossad chief Yossi Cohen (left) boards the plane to Washington for the Abraham Accords signing ceremony, late on September 13, 2020. The flags of Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, the United States and Israel are seen either side of the steps. (Screenshot) On one of his trips in the course of the so-called Abraham Accords negotiations, he said told his team during a flight, “We have a lot fewer enemies now — that’s a giant thing.” Dayan noted that his work had also involved contacts with the Saudis and many others. Asked whether it was appropriate for the Mossad to be so dominant in Israeli foreign relations, Cohen replied, “The Mossad of 2021, if you’ll permit me, in my view, has to be everywhere.” Wrong about Hamas He said he was wrong to have backed and personally helped arrange the influx of hundreds of millions of dollars from Qatar into Gaza in recent years. He stressed that this money was not intended for tunnels and rockets, but to help Gaza’s civilians. He believed that if the lives of Gaza’s civilians were improved, he said, “the motivations for crises and wars would be reduced. “I was wrong,” he said. He did not believe last month’s 11-day war with Hamas would erupt, for the same reason: “I thought we were in an ‘arrangement'” in which calm would be maintained. Asked what he would miss most now that his Mossad career is over, Cohen said “the excitement at the completion of a successful operation — I won’t find anything like it.” From right to left: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, new Mossad chief David Barnea and the intelligence’s agency’s outgoing leader Yossi Cohen on June 1, 2021. (Kobi Gideon/GPO) Still, he added, “someone once said, ‘You only climb Everest once. You planted the flag, now you go down and seek out the next summit.” Asked in that context whether he hopes to be prime minister, Cohen said, “not right now.” But you’ve not ruled it out? “Correct,” he said. 為什麼伊朗人不會投票:調查顯示巨大的政治幻滅 現代極權主義和伊朗伊斯蘭神權政治的結合,加上一位最高領袖,只能是一場投票的景象。 通過路透 2021 年 6 月 10 日 15:53 在我伊朗slamic共和國 自1979年成立根據定義從未組織自由和公正的選舉,現代極權主義和伊朗的伊斯蘭神權統治,與最高領袖的組合,不能讓超過投票奇觀,而不是選舉這個詞的正常意義。 然而,大多數伊朗人已經利用選舉平台來表達他們的存在感。他們在 1997 年隨著所謂的改革派的崛起、在有爭議的 2009 年選舉和隨後的大規模抗議中以及在 2017 年現任總統哈桑·魯哈尼以超過 70% 的投票率再次當選時做到了這一點。. 然而,人口的表達方式現在已經發生了變化。許多伊朗人表示,他們將拒絕參加即將舉行的選舉,攻擊該政權僅存的合法性支柱。 魯哈尼在連任兩屆後卸任,總統選舉將於 6 月 18 日舉行。領先者是極端保守派和司法機構負責人易卜拉欣·賴西,他負責在 1988 年下令處決數千名政治犯。伊朗的由最高領導人阿里·哈梅內伊和司法機構負責人賴西本人任命的 12 名成員組成的監護委員會必須批准候選人。被拒絕的人包括前總統馬哈茂德·艾哈邁迪內賈德。 我們的研究機構伊朗態度分析和測量小組 (GAMAAN) 在 5 月 27 日至 6 月 3 日期間對即將舉行的投票進行了在線調查。結果顯示,伊斯蘭共和國正面臨有史以來最低的投票率,只有 25% 的受訪者表示他們會投票。 我們估計的投票率低於國營伊朗學生投票機構 (ISPA) 公佈的官方數字,後者預測投票率低於 40%。這種差異可能一方面是由於傳統電話和現場抽樣之間的差異,另一方面是由於在線抽樣的圖表較少。 從俄羅斯和中國等其他專制國家的研究中,我們知道受訪者在使用傳統的、線下的調查方法與他們取得聯繫時,不太願意如實回答。然後可以使用誇大的投票數來驗證潛在的欺詐結果,從而使獨裁者受到尊重。 這就是 GAMAAN 使用匿名數字平台進行調查的原因,這讓人們感到足夠安全,可以分享他們對政治敏感問題的真實看法。 伊朗的互聯網普及率可與德國相媲美。根據最新統計,有 7700 萬移動互聯網用戶,大約 74% 的 18 歲以上伊朗人至少使用一個社交媒體平台。因此,有可能在網上接觸到相當大比例的伊朗人並詢問他們的觀點。 我們對宗教、死刑和媒體受歡迎程度進行了幾次此類調查,深入了解伊朗互聯網用戶的行為,這些行為有助於瞄準遍布全國的適當範圍的數字渠道。 在為我們最近的調查清理數據後,我們得到了居住在伊朗的 68,000 名伊朗人的樣本。該樣本使用五個人口統計變量、2017 年總統選舉中的投票行為以及有關政治偏好的新調查數據,針對 19 歲以上識字的伊朗人的目標人群進行加權和平衡。 權重的關鍵是親政權受訪者的參與,他們的缺席會影響結果。在本次調查中,我們吸引了 9,000 名受訪者,他們在 2017 年的選舉中投票支持保守派候選人 Raisi。 什麼可以解釋投票率從 2017 年的 70% 以上下降到今天不到 30% 的預期?絕大多數受訪者(71%)表示,他們棄權的主要原因是“伊斯蘭共和國選舉的不自由和無效性”。只有 7% 的人報告了監護委員會最近“取消我首選候選人的資格”作為他們的理由。 在我們於 2019 年 4 月進行的另一項調查中,79% 的受訪者表示他們將在自由公投中投反對票。那是在當年 11 月的血腥鎮壓導致大約 1,500 人死亡之前,以及伊斯蘭革命衛隊承認在 2020 年擊落了一家烏克蘭客運航空公司之前。 我們最新的結果表明,大多數人想要擺脫神權制度的願望沒有改變。大約一半的人支持將政權更迭作為有意義的變革的先決條件,四分之一的人支持更溫和地擺脫當前體制。只有 8% 的人明確支持伊斯蘭共和國,認為自己是改革派,只有 13% 的人認為自己是原則主義者,支持伊斯蘭革命和最高領袖。 我們並不是唯一擁有此類發現的群體。最近的一項國營調查顯示,改革派和原則派加起來大約有 20% 的支持者。受人尊敬的世界價值觀調查於 2020 年夏天在伊朗進行了現場調查,發現原則主義者的基數不超過 16%。 由於擔心預期的低投票率,最高領導人趕緊將投票行為描述為宗教義務。但是,如果伊朗人的政治幻滅變成了宗教失望,數百萬人放棄或改變了他們的信仰,那麼這位領導人就將選舉變成了對國家宗教信仰的考驗。正是這種宗教和政治的糾葛是伊朗人不滿的核心,而政權的管理不善、腐敗和經濟制裁只會加劇這種糾葛。 與其他專制政權一樣,伊斯蘭共和國需要足夠高的投票率,以便其外交部長可以在國外宣傳合法政府的形象。通過抵制選舉,普通伊朗人拒絕參與這個政治舞台。現在是國際社會承認他們對伊朗進行真正變革的意願的時候了。 Why Iranians won’t vote: Survey reveals massive political disenchantment The combination of modern totalitarianism and Iran’s Islamic theocracy, with a supreme leader, cannot allow for more than a voting spectacle. By REUTERS JUNE 10, 2021 15:53 Iranian President Hassan Rouhani casts his vote during the presidential election in Tehran (photo credit: TIMA VIA REUTERS) Advertisement The Islamic Republic of Iran has never organised free and fair elections since its establishment in 1979. By definition, the combination of modern totalitarianism and Iran’s Islamic theocracy, with a supreme leader, cannot allow for more than a voting spectacle, rather than elections in the normal sense of the word. Yet, a majority of Iranians have used the platform of an election to make their presence felt. They did this in 1997 with the rise of the so-called Reformists, in the disputed 2009 elections that were followed by mass protests, and in 2017 when the current president, Hassan Rouhani, was re-elected with a turnout of more than 70%. However, the population’s mode of expression has now shifted. Many Iranians say they will refuse to participate in the upcoming elections, hacking at the regime’s sole remaining pillar of legitimacy. Rouhani is standing down after serving two terms and presidential elections are taking place on June 18. The frontrunner is Ebrahim Raisi, an ultra-conservative and head of the judiciary who is responsible for ordering the execution of several thousands of political prisoners in 1988. Iran’s Guardian Council, a body of 12 members appointed by the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and the head of the judiciary, Raisi himself, must approve the candidates. Among those rejected were former president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Our research institute, the Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran (GAMAAN), conducted an online survey between May 27 and June 3 on the upcoming vote. The results show that the Islamic Republic is facing its lowest turnout ever, with only 25% of respondents saying they would vote. Our estimated turnout is lower than the official numbers published by the state-run Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA), which predicts a turnout lower than 40%. The discrepancies are likely to be caused by the differences between traditional telephone and on-site sampling on the one hand, and the less charted territories of online sampling, on the other. From research in other authoritarian countries such as Russia and China, we know that respondents are much less willing to answer truthfully when they are reached using conventional, offline, survey methods. Inflated polling numbers can then be used to validate potentially fraudulent results to give autocrats an air of respectability. That’s why GAMAAN conducts surveys using an anonymous digital platform, which makes people feel safe enough to share their true opinions about politically sensitive matters. Iran’s internet penetration rate is comparable with Germany. According to the most recent statistics, there are 77 million mobile internet subscribers and roughly 74% of Iranians over 18 use at least one social media platform. So it’s possible to reach a substantial percentage of Iranians online and ask about their views. We have conducted several such surveys on religion, capital punishment, and media popularity, gaining insights into Iranian internet users’ behavior that help target an appropriate range of digital channels spread across the country. After cleaning the data for our most recent survey, we were left with a sample of 68,000 Iranians living in Iran. The sample was weighted and balanced to the target population of literate Iranians aged above 19, using five demographic variables, voting behavior in the 2017 presidential elections, and new survey data on political preferences. Crucial for the weighting is the participation of pro-regime respondents, whose absence would skew the results. In this survey, we attracted 9,000 respondents who voted for the conservative candidate, Raisi, in the 2017 elections. What can explain the turnout drop, from over 70% in 2017 to an expectation of less than 30% today? The vast majority of our respondents, 71%, said the main reason they were abstaining was because of “the unfree and ineffective nature of elections in the Islamic Republic.” Only 7% reported the Guardian Council’s recent “disqualification of my preferred candidate” as their reason. In another survey we conducted in April 2019, 79% of respondents said they would vote no to the Islamic Republic in a free referendum. This was before the bloody crackdowns in November that year which led to the death of an estimated 1,500 people, and before the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps admitted shooting down a Ukrainian passenger airline in 2020. Our latest results show that the majority’s desire to get rid of the theocratic system hasn’t changed. Around half of the population supports regime change as a precondition for meaningful change, and a quarter supports a softer transition away from the current system. Only 8% explicitly supported the Islamic Republic by identifying as Reformist, and only 13% saw themselves as Principlists, who support the Islamic Revolution and the supreme leader. We are not the only group with such findings. A recent state-run survey revealed that Reformists and Principlists together have about 20% of supporters. The respectable World Values Survey conducted an on-site survey in Iran in the summer of 2020 and found that the Principlists’ base was no larger than 16%. Worried about the expected low turnout, the supreme leader hurried to describe the act of voting as a religious duty. But if Iranians’ political disenchantment has turned into religious disappointment, with millions abandoning or changing their faith, the leader has turned the elections into a test of the nation’s religiosity. It is this entanglement of religion and politics that is at the heart of Iranians’ discontent, and which the regime’s mismanagement and corruption and the economic sanctions have only exacerbated. Like other authoritarian regimes, the Islamic Republic needs a high enough turnout so that its foreign minister can sell an image of a legitimate government abroad. By boycotting what are nothing but staged elections, ordinary Iranians are refusing to participate in this political theater. It’s time the international community recognized their will to effect a real change in Iran.

0.00 stars, 0 ratings

Or Log In

00:00 / 00:00