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2021.06.19 國際新聞導讀-巴勒斯坦拒絕以色列給120萬劑將到期之輝瑞疫苗、黎巴嫩軍隊參謀長出國募資軍費、伊朗總統大選開始

外交官的國際新聞導覽及中東中亞的歷史故事 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia
2021-06-18
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2021.06.19 國際新聞導讀-巴勒斯坦拒絕以色列給120萬劑將到期之輝瑞疫苗、黎巴嫩軍隊參謀長出國募資軍費、伊朗總統大選開始 疫苗遭巴勒斯坦退貨 就在以色列衛生部長與資深高級衛生專家一起開會後,決議將百萬劑疫苗以「貸款」形式送到巴勒斯坦,而週五6/18稍早時候班內特總理辦公室也發表聲明,因顧及巴勒斯坦人民現在疫情高升,疫苗短缺,三方已達成協議,先緊急將即將到期的疫苗100萬劑輝瑞疫苗送進巴勒斯坦。 相關以色列幫助巴勒斯坦接種疫苗,請點擊此網址 https://bit.ly/3wIn8HG 與巴勒斯坦和輝瑞達成協議,待9-10月期間,會再補還100萬-140萬劑輝瑞疫苗給以色列。 巴勒斯坦不買帳 就在簽署協議僅數小時後,巴勒斯坦權力機構衛生部長梅•艾凱拉(Mai al-Kaila)即開立新聞記者會,表示收到疫苗後,發現因多數疫苗即將到期「巴勒斯坦媒體稱6/30到期」,拒絕且取消此項交易。 儘管已從以色列獲得了數千劑莫德納疫苗(不包括超過10萬名巴勒斯坦人到以色列工作者)以及來自俄羅斯的疫苗,又作為 COVAX 計劃的一部分; 然而,巴勒斯坦權力機構一直對以色列持批評態度,並指責以色列阻止疫苗的轉移「以色列要求巴勒斯坦疫苗不要到加薩哈瑪斯恐怖政權手上」。 巴勒斯坦權力機構已承認疫苗施打對象已先為巴勒斯坦權力機構高級官員和約旦王室。 最可憐的是巴勒斯坦百姓,無論是巴勒斯坦權力機構與哈瑪斯恐怖政權,從來第一優先考量的都不是人民的生存。 這批120萬劑疫苗是以色列首批購入疫苗的存貨,當時每劑輝瑞疫苗「二次注射」花費90美元,1.08億美元眼看著要丟入垃圾桶了嗎? 巴勒斯坦也買不下去這些上百萬劑輝瑞疫苗,畢竟醫護人員也不足吧,怎麼可能在6月底半個月不到的時間之內打完呢? 以色列不得在未經輝瑞公司批准的情況下出售/給予,輝瑞啊~ 台灣還有其他國家很需要哪! 參考新聞:Arutz Sheva 7 新聞日期:2021/6/18 巴勒斯坦人取消了為以色列提供 100 萬支 COVID 疫苗的協議 PA 聲稱以色列已開始提供的劑量的到期日期太近了;在數月的國際壓力下,以色列於週五轉移了首批 10 萬例疫苗 由TOI 工作人員和機構提供今天,晚上 8:40 巴勒斯坦權力機構衛生部長邁·凱拉 (WAFA) 巴勒斯坦權力機構週五晚間戲劇性地宣布,它將取消一項協議,在該協議中,以色列將向其提供約 100 萬劑輝瑞疫苗,以幫助其陷入困境的冠狀病毒疫苗接種活動。 巴勒斯坦權力機構表示,以色列週五開始運往約旦河西岸的這些藥物即將到期,但以色列官員堅稱它們很好,不應浪費。 “衛生部的主管團隊發現我們今天從以色列收到的疫苗不符合規格,因此政府決定歸還它們,”巴勒斯坦權力機構衛生部長 Mai al-Kaila 說。 10 秒 巴勒斯坦權力機構政府發言人易卜拉欣·米爾希姆說,總理穆罕默德·施泰耶已下令取消協議並將疫苗歸還給以色列。他說巴勒斯坦人不會接受來自以色列的“即將過期”的疫苗。 在周五早些時候宣布該協議後,巴勒斯坦權力機構官員在社交媒體上受到了嚴厲批評,巴勒斯坦人指責他們接受低於標準的疫苗並暗示它們可能無效。 在以色列安息日之後,以色列沒有立即對取消做出官方反應,但陸軍電台援引衛生部官員的話表示懷疑。 “我們不知道他們想要什麼,疫苗很好,”這位官員說。 Ynet 新聞網站稱,週五轉移給巴勒斯坦人的疫苗在 6 月底和 7 月底之前都很好,以色列故意先發送這些疫苗,以免浪費。其餘疫苗的有效期較晚,並且可以使用幾個月。 以色列於 2021 年 6 月 18 日星期五開始向巴勒斯坦權力機構轉移約 100 萬種疫苗(COGAT) 在宣布該協議時,以色列表示疫苗“很快就會到期”,但沒有具體說明日期。 週五早些時候,總理納夫塔利·貝內特 (Naftali Bennett) 的辦公室表示,將把疫苗轉移給巴勒斯坦人立即使用,作為交換,以色列將在 9 月和 10 月收到輝瑞公司的疫苗,這些疫苗原本打算運往巴勒斯坦人。 PMO 聲明說:“該計劃是基於以色列目前的疫苗庫存足以滿足其當前需求這一事實而獲得批准的。” 衛生部的一份聲明說,以色列將提供 100 萬至 140 萬劑疫苗,並會收到相同數量的疫苗作為回報。 週五,第一批約 100,000 劑疫苗已轉移給巴勒斯坦人。 負責管理巴勒斯坦民事事務的以色列軍方在領土上的政府活動協調員表示,它已經為與巴勒斯坦權力機構簽署協議而努力了幾個星期。 衛生部長尼贊·霍洛維茨週五與 al-Kaila 進行了交談。 “冠狀病毒無法識別人與人之間的邊界或差異,”霍洛維茨在推特上寫道。“這一交換疫苗的重要舉措符合我們所有人的利益。我希望此舉將促進以色列與我們的巴勒斯坦鄰國在其他領域的進一步合作。” 巴勒斯坦人以不同的方式描述了該協議,稱輝瑞公司建議將轉讓作為加快交付 400 萬劑藥物的一種方式,而巴勒斯坦權力機構已經在與製藥公司直接達成的協議中支付了費用。 “這不是與以色列達成的協議,而是與輝瑞公司達成的協議,”al-Kaila 週五早些時候在交易被取消之前表示,據官方的 Wafa 通訊社報導。 Al-Kaila 說,在巴勒斯坦權力機構、以色列和輝瑞公司的三方談判中,以色列要求任何疫苗都不得轉移到哈馬斯經營的加沙地帶,並且巴勒斯坦國不得簽署合同。 她說巴勒斯坦人拒絕了這兩項要求。 此舉是在以色列因未能顯著幫助巴勒斯坦人而面臨人權組織和醫療專業人士數月的強烈批評之後做出的。 在這張 2021 年 2 月 23 日的檔案照片中,巴勒斯坦人在約旦河西岸城市拉馬拉和耶路撒冷之間的 Qalandia 檢查站接受了來自以色列醫療隊的冠狀病毒疫苗後自拍。(美聯社照片/Oded Balilty,文件) 一直在推動以色列和巴勒斯坦人之間加強合作的美國對此舉表示歡迎。 “美國歡迎以色列和巴勒斯坦權力機構之間的合作,為巴勒斯坦人民提供超過 100 萬支 COVID-19 疫苗。與 COVID-19 的鬥爭需要全球響應,”國務院發言人內德·普萊斯說。 星期四,國土報報導說,提供疫苗的決定是由本傑明·內塔尼亞胡 (Benjamin Netanyahu) 領導的前任政府做出的,但沒有任何後續行動。 上個月,衛生部總幹事 Chezy Levy 敦促以色列幫助巴勒斯坦人接種疫苗,稱不這樣做可能會破壞以色列自己接種疫苗的成果。 “我們需要幫助巴勒斯坦人並迅速協助他們的疫苗接種計劃,因為這會影響我們中間的發病率,”利維在接受 Kan 公共廣播公司採訪時說。 雖然以色列發起了世界一流的疫苗接種運動,但巴勒斯坦權力機構正在努力為其人口接種疫苗。 根據巴勒斯坦權力機構衛生部的數據,截至本週,已有 436,275 人至少接種了一劑,其中約 260,000 人接種了兩劑。 這些數字包括以色列自 3 月以來接種疫苗的 100,000 多名巴勒斯坦工人,因為他們經常在工作場所與以色列人接觸。 它還包括加沙地帶約 52,000 名已接種疫苗的巴勒斯坦人。 以色列到現在為止,從發起了一場運動,接種普通巴勒斯坦民眾克制,儘管電話 來自以色列非營利組織了請願書,司法高等法院和資深健康專家“的敦促它這樣做。 以色列堅持認為,根據《奧斯陸協定》,巴勒斯坦人負責西岸的免疫接種。與此同時,加沙由哈馬斯恐怖組織控制。 巴勒斯坦人在 3 月和 4 月遭受了最嚴重的 COVID-19 浪潮,峰值達到每天近 3,000 例新病例。但是,在嚴格封鎖之後,每天的病例數已降至約 250 例。 儘管安全屏障將西岸的大部分地區與以色列隔開,以色列和加沙之間也有近乎密封的圍欄,但整個地區被視為一個流行病學單位。 例如,美國疾病控制與預防中心的旅行者健康部分列出了“以色列,包括西岸和加沙地帶”。由於以色列和這些領土被歸為一組,美國國務院在 4 月份將 以色列列入其“四級:請勿旅行”諮詢名單的 116 個國家中,理由是“COVID-19 水平非常高”導致“前所未有”的風險。 ” 儘管以色列取消了幾乎所有的病毒限制,而且最近幾天甚至取消了室內戴口罩的規定,但還是出現了這種情況。 以色列的大規模疫苗接種活動已經為超過一半的人口接種了兩種疫苗,加上封鎖措施,使每日新增病例數(基於每周平均值)從健康危機高峰時的 8,600 例降至僅 13 例在星期三。 在大流行最嚴重的時候,全國有 88,000 例活躍病例和 1,228 例嚴重病例;截至週四,共有 248 例活躍感染者和 24 人病情嚴重。 Palestinians cancel deal for Israel to supply 1 million COVID vaccines PA claims that expiration date on doses Israel has started to deliver is too close; Israel transferred first 100,000 inoculations on Friday after months of international pressure By TOI STAFF and AGENCIESToday, 8:40 pm Palestinian Authority Health Minister Mai al-Kaila (WAFA) The Palestinian Authority on Friday evening dramatically announced that it was canceling a deal in which Israel would supply it with some 1 million Pfizer vaccine doses to help with its floundering coronavirus vaccination campaign. The PA said the doses, which Israel began shipping to the West Bank on Friday, are too close to expiring, however, Israeli officials insisted they were fine and should not be wasted. “The competent teams in the ministry found that the vaccines we received today from Israel did not meet the specifications, so the government decided to return them,” said PA Health Minister Mai al-Kaila. PA government spokesman Ibrahim Milhim said that Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh has ordered the cancelation of the agreement and the return of the vaccines to Israel. He said the Palestinians would not accept “about-to-expire” vaccines from Israel. PA officials had come under heavy criticism on social media after the agreement was announced earlier Friday, with Palestinians accusing them of accepting subpar vaccines and suggesting they might not be effective. Get The Times of Israel's Daily Edition by email and never miss our top storiesFREE SIGN UP There was no immediate official Israeli reaction to the cancellation, which came after it was Shabbat in Israel, but Army Radio quoted a Health Ministry official as expressing incredulity. “We don’t know what they want, the vaccines are fine,” the official said. The Ynet news site said the vaccinations transferred to the Palestinians on Friday were good until the end of June and July, with Israel deliberately sending those first so they would not be wasted. The rest of the vaccines have a later expiration date and were good for several months. Israel begins the transfer of some 1 million vaccines to the Palestinian Authority on Friday June 18, 2021 (COGAT) In announcing the agreement, Israel said the vaccines “will expire soon” without specifying the date. Earlier Friday, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s office said it would transfer doses for the Palestinians immediate use, and that in exchange, in September and October, Israel would receive shipments of Pfizer vaccines that were originally meant to go to the Palestinians. “The plan was approved based on the fact that Israel’s current vaccine stockpile is sufficient for its current needs,” the PMO statement said. A statement from the Health Ministry said Israel would deliver between one million and 1.4 million doses and would receive an identical number of doses in return. A first batch of some 100,000 doses was transferred to the Palestinians on Friday. The Israeli military’s Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, which administers Palestinian civilian affairs, said it had been working for several weeks to sign a deal with the Palestinian Authority. Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz spoke Friday with al-Kaila. “The coronavirus does not recognize borders or differences between peoples,” Horowitz tweeted. “This important move to swap vaccines is in all of our interests. I hope this move will lead to further cooperation between Israel and our Palestinian neighbors in other fields.” Palestinians portrayed the agreement differently, saying Pfizer had suggested the transfer as a way of speeding up its delivery of 4 million doses that the PA had already paid for in an agreement reached directly with the drug company. “This is not an agreement with Israel, but with the Pfizer company,” al-Kaila said earlier Friday, before the deal was called off, according to the official Wafa news agency. Al-Kaila said that during three-way negotiations between the PA, Israel and Pfizer, Israel demanded that none of the vaccines be transferred to the Hamas-run Gaza Strip and that the contract not be signed by the State of Palestine. She said the Palestinians refused both demands. The move comes after Israel faced months of intense criticism from rights groups and medical professionals for its failure to significantly assist the Palestinians. In this Feb. 23, 2021, file photo, Palestinians take a selfie after receiving the coronavirus vaccine from an Israeli medical team at the Qalandia checkpoint between the West Bank city of Ramallah and Jerusalem. (AP Photo/Oded Balilty, File) The US, which has been pushing for greater cooperation between Israel and the Palestinians, welcomed the move. “The United States welcomes cooperation between Israel and the Palestinian Authority to provide over 1 million COVID-19 vaccines to the Palestinian people. The fight against COVID-19 requires a global response,” said State Department spokesman Ned Price. On Thursday, Haaretz reported that the decision to supply the vaccines was made by the previous government under Benjamin Netanyahu, but there had been no follow-through. Last month, Health Ministry Director-General Chezy Levy urged Israel to help vaccinate the Palestinians, saying that failing to do so risked undermining the gains of Israel’s own vaccination drive. “We need to help the Palestinians and quickly assist their vaccination program because it can affect the morbidity here among us,” said Levy, speaking to the Kan public broadcaster. While Israel has launched a world-beating vaccination drive, the Palestinian Authority is struggling to vaccinate its population. According to the PA health ministry as of this week, 436,275 people had received at least one dose, with some 260,000 having received both doses. Those figures include the more than 100,000 Palestinian workers that Israel has vaccinated since March, as they come into regular contact with Israelis at their workplaces. It also includes some 52,000 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip who have been vaccinated. Israel has until now refrained from initiating a campaign to vaccinate the general Palestinian population, despite calls from Israeli nonprofits, a petition to the High Court of Justice, and senior health experts’ urgings that it do so. Israel has maintained that under the Oslo Accords, the Palestinians are responsible for immunizations in the West Bank. Gaza, meanwhile, is controlled by the Hamas terror group. The Palestinians suffered their worst COVID-19 wave in March and April, which peaked at almost 3,000 new cases a day. However, following a strict lockdown, figures have dropped to some 250 cases daily. Though the security barrier separates most of the West Bank from Israel, and there is a near-hermetic fence between Israel and Gaza, the entire region is seen as one epidemiological unit. For instance, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s travelers’ health section lists “Israel, including the West Bank and Gaza.” Because Israel and the territories are grouped together, the US State Department in April included Israel among 116 countries on its “Level Four: Do Not Travel” advisory list, citing “unprecedented” risk due to a “very high level of COVID-19.” That came despite Israel having lifted almost all its virus restrictions, and in recent days even the indoor mask mandate as well. Israel’s mass vaccination drive, which has already given both shots to over half the population, along with lockdown measures, brought down the number of new daily cases (based on a weekly average), from 8,600 at the peak of the health crisis to just 13 on Wednesday. At the height of the pandemic, there were 88,000 active cases in the country and 1,228 serious cases; as of Thursday, there were 248 active infections and 24 people in serious condition. 黎巴嫩陸軍參謀長:經濟形勢將導致軍隊崩潰 “軍隊是唯一和最後一個仍然保持連貫性並保證黎巴嫩和該地區安全與穩定的機構。” 通過路透社,耶路撒冷郵報STAFF 2021 年 6 月 17 日 19:47 陸軍司令約瑟夫·奧恩將軍在為在伊斯蘭國俘虜中喪生的黎巴嫩士兵舉行的正式葬禮上講話 (圖片來源:路透社) 廣告 根據黎巴嫩軍隊的一條推文,黎巴嫩陸軍總司令約瑟夫·奧恩 (Joseph Aoun) 表示: “如果黎巴嫩的經濟形勢繼續惡化,將不可避免地導致包括軍事機構在內的機構崩潰。” 奧恩說:“軍隊是唯一和最後一個仍然保持連貫性並保證黎巴嫩和該地區安全與穩定的機構,”他還說,對軍隊的傷害將導致“混亂的蔓延”。 奧恩說,軍隊垮台將使這個國家暴露在外,他要求外國支持軍隊度過這個“微妙的階段”。 “我們相信,在我們士兵的決心和意志以及黎巴嫩人民和友好國家的支持下,我們將度過這個艱難而微妙的階段。” 一位法國官員表示,世界大國將在周四的一次會議上尋求為黎巴嫩軍隊籌集數千萬美元的緊急援助,旨在防止軍隊因該國經濟和政治危機惡化而崩潰。 在試圖團結他們同意新政府並啟動改革以釋放外國現金的嘗試失敗後,領導對其前殖民地的援助工作的巴黎試圖加大對黎巴嫩爭吵不休的政客的壓力。 黎巴嫩安全部隊正在對貨幣崩盤產生不滿,這場貨幣崩盤已經使他們的大部分薪水蒸發殆盡。為了解決這個問題,法國將於週四與包括美國、俄羅斯、中國和歐洲大國以及海灣阿拉伯地區在內的合作夥伴舉行一次虛擬會議。 由於該國的金融危機和政治僵局揮之不去,黎巴嫩的貨幣在周日跌破了一個里程碑,兌美元匯率創下新低。 市場交易商表示,黎巴嫩鎊兌美元匯率約為 15,150,在 2019 年底黎巴嫩經濟和金融危機爆發時下跌了約 90%。 黎巴嫩正處於威脅其穩定的深度經濟崩潰的陣痛之中。世界銀行稱其為現代歷史上最嚴重的蕭條之一。 Lebanon Army Chief: Economic situation will lead to collapse of military "The army is the only and last institution that is still coherent and guarantees the security and stability in Lebanon and the region." By REUTERS, JERUSALEM POST STAFF JUNE 17, 2021 19:47 Army Commander General Joseph Aoun speaks during the offical funeral ceremony for the Lebanese soldiers who were killed in Islamic State captivity (photo credit: REUTERS) Advertisement "If the economic situation continues to deteriorate in Lebanon it will inevitably lead to the collapse of institutions, including the military establishment," said Lebanon's Army Chief General Joseph Aoun, according to a Tweet from Lebanon's Army. "The army is the only and last institution that is still coherent and guarantees the security and stability in Lebanon and the region," said Aoun, who also said that harm to it will lead to "the spread of chaos." A collapse of the military will leave the country exposed, said Aoun, who asked for foreign support for the military in getting through this "delicate stage. "We believe that we will pass this difficult and delicate stage thanks to the determination and will of our soldiers and with the support of the Lebanese people and friendly countries." World powers will seek to raise tens of millions of dollars in emergency aid for the Lebanese army at a meeting on Thursday, aiming to prevent the military from collapsing as the country's economic and political crisis worsens, a French official said. Paris, which has led aid efforts to its former colony, has sought to ramp up pressure on Lebanon's squabbling politicians, after failed attempts to rally them to agree a new government and launch reforms to unlock foreign cash. Discontent is brewing among Lebanon's security forces over a currency crash that has wiped out most of the value of their salaries. To tackle that, France will host on Thursday a virtual meeting with partners including the United States, Russia, China and European powers and the Gulf Arab region. Lebanon's currency crashed past a milestone on Sunday reaching a new low against the dollar, as the country's financial meltdown and political deadlock linger. Market dealers said the Lebanese pound was trading at around 15,150 to the dollar, losing around 90% of what it was worth in late 2019, when Lebanon's economic and financial crisis erupted. Lebanon is in the throes of a deep economic meltdown that is threatening its stability. The World Bank has called it one of the deepest depressions of modern history. 伊朗大選投票開始,哈梅內伊呼籲高投票率 “每張選票都很重要……來投票選出你的總統……這對你國家的未來很重要。” 通過路透 2021 年 6 月 18 日 10:09 伊朗最高領袖阿亞圖拉阿里哈梅內伊將在德黑蘭舉行的伊朗總統選舉期間投票 (圖片來源:路透社) 廣告 伊朗人周五開始在總統選舉中投票,一位非常忠於宗教機構的法官很可能會獲勝,儘管由於對經濟困難和強硬統治不滿,預計許多人將無視投票。 由於圍繞伊朗重振其 2015 年核協議的努力存在不確定性,以及在美國實施多年制裁後國內貧困日益嚴重,伊朗分析人士將投票的投票率視為對領導層處理一系列危機的公投。 最高領袖阿亞圖拉阿里哈梅內伊在首都德黑蘭投票後說:“每張選票都很重要……來投票選擇你的總統……這對你國家的未來很重要。” 國家電視台顯示,幾個城市的投票站外排起了長隊。超過 5900 萬伊朗人有資格投票。投票將在格林威治標準時間 1930 結束,但可以延長兩個小時。結果預計在周六中午左右。 現年 60 歲的強硬派易卜拉欣·賴西是哈梅內伊的親密盟友,他最有希望接替現任總統哈桑·魯哈尼(Hassan Rouhani),根據憲法禁止其第三個四年任期。 什葉派神職人員的獲勝將證實魯哈尼等實用主義政治家的政治滅亡,美國決定退出核協議並重新實施制裁以扼殺與西方的和解。 伊朗官員表示,但這不會影響伊朗恢復協議並擺脫嚴厲的石油和金融制裁的努力,因為該國的執政神職人員意識到他們的政治命運依賴於應對日益惡化的經濟困難。 “Raisi 的主要挑戰將是經濟。如果他不能治愈國家的經濟痛苦,抗議的爆發將是不可避免的,”一位政府官員說。 官方民意調查顯示投票率可能低至 44%,明顯低於過去的選舉。 關鍵支持 在通脹上升和失業率上升的壓力下,文職領導層需要高票數以提高其合法性,自 2017 年以來伊朗各地針對貧困和政治限制的一系列抗議活動受到破壞。 Raisi 的主要競爭對手是實用主義的技術官僚、前央行行長 Abdolnaser Hemmati,他表示任何強硬派的勝利都將導致外部勢力施加更多製裁。他在競選活動中表示,如果伊朗堅持與伊朗“積極共處”,它可以與長期宿敵美國舉行會談。 Raisi 得到伊朗革命衛隊的重要支持,這是一個強大的機構,多年來一直反對改革主義倡議,監督抗議活動的鎮壓,並使用代理部隊來維護伊朗的地區影響力。 這位中級神職人員表示,他支持伊朗與六個主要大國的談判,以恢復核協議,根據該協議,伊朗同意遏制其核計劃,以換取解除制裁。 但與哈梅內伊對西方緩和的懷疑相同的雷西表示,只有強大的政府才能實施該協議的任何復興。 被哈梅內伊任命為 2019 年備受矚目的司法部長職務的拉伊西被批評者指責為數十年來侵犯人權的行為——他的捍衛者否認的指控。 據人權組織稱,幾個月後,美國以侵犯人權為由制裁他,包括 1980 年代處決政治犯和 2009 年鎮壓騷亂,他參與了這些事件。 分析師傑森·布羅德斯基說:“如果當選,賴西將成為近期記憶中第一位不僅在上任前受到製裁,而且可能在任職期間受到製裁的伊朗總統。” 伊朗從未承認大規模處決,雷西本人也從未公開回應有關其角色的指控。 Polls open in Iran election, Khamenei calls for high turnout "Each vote counts … come and vote and choose your president … this is important for the future of your country." By REUTERS JUNE 18, 2021 10:09 Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is seen to vote during Iranian presidential election in Tehran (photo credit: REUTERS) Advertisement Iranians began voting on Friday in a presidential election likely to be won by a judge fiercely loyal to the religious establishment, although many people are expected to ignore the vote due to discontent with economic hardship and hardline rule. With uncertainty surrounding Iran's efforts to revive its 2015 nuclear deal and growing poverty at home after years of US sanctions, the turnout for the vote is being seen by Iranian analysts as a referendum on the leadership's handling of an array of crises. "Each vote counts … come and vote and choose your president … this is important for the future of your country," said Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after casting his vote in the capital, Tehran. State television showed long queues outside polling stations in several cities. More than 59 million Iranians are eligible to vote. Polls will close at 1930 GMT but can be extended for two hours. The results are expected around midday on Saturday. Hardliner Ebrahim Raisi, 60, a close ally of Khamenei, is favorite to succeed the incumbent Hassan Rouhani, forbidden under the constitution from serving a third four-year term. A win for the Shi'ite cleric would confirm the political demise of pragmatist politicians like Rouhani, weakened by the US decision to quit the nuclear deal and reimpose sanctions in a move that stifled rapprochement with the West. But it would not disrupt Iran's bid to revive the agreement and break free of tough oil and financial sanctions, Iranian officials say, with the country's ruling clerics aware their political fortunes rely on tackling worsening economic hardship. "Raisi's main challenge will be the economy. Eruption of protests will be inevitable if he fails to heal the nation's economic pain," a government official said. Official opinion polls suggest turnout could be as low as 44%, significantly lower than in past elections. CRUCIAL BACKING Under pressure over rising inflation and joblessness, the clerical leadership needs a high vote count to boost its legitimacy, damaged after a series of protests against poverty and political restrictions across Iran since 2017. Raisi's main rival is a pragmatist technocrat, former central bank governor Abdolnaser Hemmati, who says a win for any hardliner will result in yet more sanctions imposed by outside powers. Iran could hold talks with longtime arch-foe the United States if it adhered to "positive coexistence" with Iran, he said in the election campaign. Raisi has crucial backing from Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps, a powerful institution which over the years has opposed reformist initiatives, overseen the suppression of protests and used proxy forces to assert Iran's regional influence. The mid-ranking cleric says he backs Iran's talks with six major powers to revive the nuclear deal, under which Iran agreed to curbs on its nuclear program in return for the lifting of sanctions. But Raisi, who shares Khamenei's suspicion of detente with the West, says only a powerful government can implement any revival of the pact. Accused by critics of human rights abuses stretching back decades - allegations his defenders deny - Raisi was appointed by Khamenei to the high-profile job of judiciary chief in 2019. A few months later, the United States sanctioned him for human rights violations, including the executions of political prisoners in 1980s and the suppression of unrest in 2009, events in which he played a part, according to human rights groups. "If elected, Raisi will be the first Iranian president in recent memory to have not only been sanctioned before he has taken office, but potentially sanctioned while being in office," said analyst Jason Brodsky. Iran has never acknowledged the mass executions, and Raisi himself has never publicly addressed allegations about his role. 伊朗總統選舉開始 阿亞圖拉阿里哈梅內伊的選秀權,易卜拉欣Raisi,可能會獲勝 * 預計投票率較低,低至 30%-40%,而 2017 年為 70%。 作者:尤娜傑瑞米鮑勃 2021 年 6 月 17 日 21:33 2021 年 3 月 1 日,在奧地利維也納爆發冠狀病毒病 (COVID-19) 期間,在理事會會議開始之前,伊朗國旗在國際原子能機構 (IAEA) 總部前飄揚。 (照片來源:路透社/LISI NIESNER/文件照片) 伊朗總統選舉定於週五開始,伊朗最高領袖阿亞圖拉·阿里·哈梅內伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)當選的 易卜拉欣·賴西(Ebrahim Raisi)有望以壓倒性優勢獲勝。 在提交候選資格的 500 多名候選人中,只有 7 名最初被該國的監護委員會批准參選, 其中 3 名本週退出。 過去,監護委員會取消了大多數可能批評和與政權發生衝突的候選人的資格,但它允許現任總統哈桑魯哈尼等所謂的實用主義內部人士與強硬派候選人競爭。 在這一輪選舉中,哈梅內伊指示理事會甚至取消第一副總統埃沙克·賈漢吉里和前議會議長阿里·拉里賈尼的資格。 兩人都與該政權有聯繫,但分析人士表示,他們被取消資格,因為哈梅內伊認為他們也有可能從實用主義和改革派陣營中獲得選票,在這種情況下,他們本可以向 Raisi 提出真正的挑戰。 唯一剩下的改革主義實用主義候選人——前中央銀行行長 Abdolnaser Hemmati——既缺乏魅力,也缺乏知名度,被許多分析家視為更多的遮羞布和輕量級人物,被綠燈,因此該政權可以說反對——風格候選人被允許運行。 Hemmati 還擔任過多種職務,包括伊朗伊斯蘭共和國廣播公司 (IRIB) 的副總裁。 核協議,但作為與美國達成協議的一部分,如果華盛頓正確考慮了伊朗的擔憂,他表示願意恢復該協議的限制。 然而,在媒體中心的媒體會議上,伊朗專家和以色列國防軍中校。(res.) Michael Segall 指出 Raisi 可以支持這筆交易,同時仍然通過伊斯蘭革命衛隊的聖城軍在整個中東地區促進伊朗的霸權。 如果 Raisi 當選,IRGC 也有望獲得更大的權力。 由於該政權前所未有的干預——即使按照伊朗的標準——選民預計將通過拒絕投票來抗議,預計投票率將低至 30%-40%,而 2017 年約為 70%。 伊朗專家 Thamar Eilam Gindin 博士在媒體中心會議期間指出,即使申請參加此次選舉的候選人人數也僅佔 2017 年 1,636 人的三分之一左右。 儘管如此,伊朗高級官員還是在周三和周四通過電視轉播,試圖提高選民投票率。 魯哈尼呼籲選民擱置不滿,參加週五的總統選舉,由於經濟困難和對強硬統治的不滿,預計將有創紀錄的人數抵制。 他週四敦促伊朗人不要讓“機構或團體的缺點”阻止他們投票,這顯然是指監護委員會。 魯哈尼在電視講話中說:“暫時,我們不要考慮明天的委屈。” 哈梅內伊本人周三敦促人們大量投票,稱其為宗教義務,並表示高投票率將挫敗“撒旦勢力”和所謂的外國勢力操縱以削弱該國的實力。 除了對著名溫和派取消資格的憤怒之外,不滿還包括美國製裁加劇的經濟困難以及官方腐敗、管理不善,以及 2019 年鎮壓抗議者,當時 150 至 1,500 人被殺,這是由燃料價格上漲引發的。 2020 年 1 月,一架烏克蘭飛機在伊朗意外擊落,造成 176 人死亡,其中許多是伊朗人,這也破壞了公眾的信任。 “投票是對我智商的侮辱,”55 歲的法特梅說,她因為害怕遭到報復而拒絕透露自己的第二個名字。“無論我們投票給誰,Raisi 都已經被政府選中了。” 國內外著名的持不同政見者呼籲伊朗同胞冷落選舉,包括自 2011 年以來被軟禁的流亡的前王儲禮薩巴列維和反對派領導人穆薩維。 另一方面,包括前總統穆罕默德·哈塔米在內的許多領先的改革派都支持赫馬蒂,認為大規模抵制將保證萊西獲勝。 INSS 伊朗專家 Raz Zimmt 表示,即使在 2019 年,也有跡象表明 Raisi 已成為接替哈梅內伊擔任最高領導人的主要候選人。Zimmt 說,自 Raisi 於 2019 年 3 月被任命為司法部門負責人以來,這位保守派神職人員已經擴大了他的努力,以推動法律制度的變革,改善他的公眾形象,並增加他的媒體曝光度。 新的營銷努力以及哈梅內伊公開支持這些努力非常重要,因為儘管 Raisi 在 2017 年輸掉了總統競選,但它們還是發生了。 齊姆特指出,哈梅內伊的信息似乎很明確:他不在乎萊西輸給魯哈尼,他希望萊西成為他的繼任者。 Zimmt 補充說,Raisi “與最高領袖的關係、他在司法當局的經驗、他在馬什哈德市擔任 Astan Quds Razavi 基金會(和伊瑪目禮薩神殿)主席的任期,以及他的強硬立場以及他日益增長的努力提高他的公眾地位,使他成為現階段繼任之戰的主要候選人。” Raisi 於 1960 年 12 月出生於馬什哈德。 自 1980 年代初以來,他在司法系統中擔任過一系列職務,包括德黑蘭檢察官、司法機關總檢察長、第一副首席大法官和伊朗總檢察長。 他於 2016 年被哈梅內伊任命為位於馬什哈德的 Astan Quds Razavi 基金會主席,Zimmt 寫道,這是一個強大的基金會,控制著重要的伊斯蘭信託、廣泛的資產和龐大的預算。 除了這些職位外,Raisi 還是權宜委員會的成員和專家會議的副主席,負責監督最高領袖的活動,任命他的繼任者,如果發現他不適合,甚至可能將他免職。繼續服務。 在成為司法機構負責人後不久,賴西宣布了一些變革,包括提高效率。 Zimmt 說,Raisi 將反腐敗戰爭置於他議程的首位。 例如,賴西解雇了數十名被指控參與腐敗的法官。 此外,Raisi 宣布他將減少他擁有的銀行賬戶數量,並將發布年度報告。 Zimmt 寫道,這似乎是為了將自己與他的前任 Sadeq Larijani 區分開來,後者據稱持有 60 多個銀行賬戶,其資金來自在法庭上審理案件的公民。 2019 年 6 月中旬,Raisi 在他的 Instagram 帳戶上發布了一篇不同尋常的帖子,呼籲伊朗人通過他的個人社交媒體帳戶與他聯繫,建議對司法系統進行必要的改進。 齊姆特寫道:“這一舉措受到熱烈歡迎,尤其是支持改革的媒體,他們表示希望這將導致重新審視當前封鎖社交網絡的政策,並加強公眾對司法系統的信任。” 同樣,同月,伊朗媒體發布了賴西前往德黑蘭地鐵上班的照片,顯然是為了強化他過著簡單樸素生活方式的形象,並在司法週期間接受了廣泛的媒體採訪。 齊姆特說,由於參與 1988 年大規模處決政治犯,賴西與伊朗改革派陣營有問題。 投票站於當地時間早上 7 點開放,週六凌晨 2 點關閉。內政部長告訴國家電視台,由於 Covid-19 大流行,投票將在全國 67,000 個地點進行,需要保持社交距離並戴上口罩。 內政部表示,投票結果將在周六中午前公佈,也就是投票結束後不到 12 小時。 路透社為本報告做出了貢獻。 Iran's presidential election begins Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s pick, Ebrahim Raisi, is likely to win * Low turnout expected, as low as 30%-40% compared to 70% in 2017. By YONAH JEREMY BOB JUNE 17, 2021 21:33 The Iranian flag waves in front of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) headquarters, before the beginning of a board of governors meeting, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Vienna, Austria, March 1, 2021. (photo credit: REUTERS/LISI NIESNER/FILE PHOTO) Advertisement Iran’s presidential election was set to kick off on Friday with Ebrahim Raisi, the pick of Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, expected to win in a landslide. Of over 500 candidates who submitted their candidacy, only seven were initially approved to run by the country’s Guardian Council, three of whom dropped out this week. In the past, the Guardian Council has disqualified most candidates who might criticize and clash with the regime, but it had allowed so-called pragmatist insiders like current President Hassan Rouhani to run against its hard-liner candidates. For this round of elections, Khamenei instructed the council to even disqualify First Vice-President Eshaq Jahangiri and former parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani. Both have ties to the regime, but analysts say they were disqualified as Khamenei saw them having the potential to draw votes also from the pragmatist and reformist camps, in which case they could have presented Raisi with a real challenge. The only reformist-pragmatist candidate left – former central bank chief Abdolnaser Hemmati – lacks either charisma or name recognition, and is seen by many analysts as more of a fig leaf and a lightweight who was green-lighted so the regime could say an opposition-style candidate was allowed to run. Hemmati has also served in a variety of roles including vice president of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB). Even against the well-known Rouhani, Raisi grabbed almost 16 million votes in the 2017 election, close to 40% of actual voters, and Rouhani cannot run again having finished his second term. Raisi’s election could carry even greater significance than usual as Khamenei, 82, has had deteriorating health issues for years, and many expect Raisi could be the next supreme leader. In addition, many analysts predict that a victory by the hard-line Raisi could lead to a purge of any remaining moderates at the higher echelons of state institutions. Despite Raisi’s long record of criticizing the JCPOA Iran nuclear deal, he expressed an openness to return to the deal’s limits as part of an agreement with the US, if Washington properly considered the Islamic Republic’s concerns. However, in a Media Central session for the press, Iran expert and IDF Lt.-Col. (res.) Michael Segall noted that Raisi could support the deal, while still promoting Iranian hegemony throughout the Middle East via the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force. The IRGC is also expected to gain greater power if Raisi is elected. Due to the regime’s unprecedented interference – even by Iranian standards – voters are expected to protest by refusing to vote, with turnout predicted to be as low as 30%-40% compared with around 70% in 2017. Iran expert Dr. Thamar Eilam Gindin pointed out during the Media Central session that even the number of candidates who filed to run in this election was only around one-third of the 1,636 who sought to run in 2017. Still, top Iranian officials hit the airwaves on Wednesday and Thursday to try to increase voter turnout. Rouhani appealed to voters to set aside their grievances and take part in a presidential election on Friday that record numbers of people are expected to boycott due to economic hardship and frustration with hard-line rule. He urged Iranians on Thursday not to let the “shortcomings of an institution or a group” keep them from voting, an apparent reference to the Guardian Council. “For the time being, let’s not think about grievances tomorrow,” Rouhani said in televised remarks. Khamenei himself urged people on Wednesday to turn out in large numbers, calling it a religious obligation, and saying that high voter turnout would thwart “satanic forces” and alleged manipulations by foreign powers to undermine the country’s strength. In addition to anger over the disqualification of prominent moderates, grievances include economic hardship exacerbated by US sanctions as well as official corruption, mismanagement, and a 2019 crackdown on protesters when between 150 and 1,500 were killed, which was triggered by rising fuel prices. The accidental shooting down of a Ukrainian plane in Iran in January 2020 that killed 176, many of whom Iranians, also undermined public trust. “Voting would be an insult to my intelligence,” said 55-year-old Fatemeh, who declined to give her second name for fear of reprisals. “Raisi has already been selected by the government regardless of who we vote for.” Prominent dissidents inside and outside the country have called on fellow Iranians to snub the election, including exiled former crown prince Reza Pahlavi and opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavi, under house arrest since 2011. On the other hand, many leading reformists have rallied behind Hemmati, including former president Mohammad Khatami, arguing that a massive boycott would guarantee a Raisi win. Even in 2019, there were signs that Raisi had emerged as the leading candidate to succeed Khamenei as supreme leader, said INSS Iran expert Raz Zimmt. Since Raisi’s appointment as head of the judiciary in March 2019, Zimmt said, the conservative cleric had expanded his efforts to advance changes in the legal system, improve his public image, and increase his media exposure. The new marketing effort, and Khamenei overtly supporting these efforts, were highly significant in that they occurred despite Raisi’s losing the presidential race in 2017. Khamenei’s message appeared to be clear, noted Zimmt: he did not care that Raisi lost to Rouhani, he wanted Raisi as his successor. Zimmt added that Raisi’s “closeness to the supreme leader, his experience in the judicial authority, his tenure as chairman of the Astan Quds Razavi foundation (and the Imam Reza Shrine) in the city of Mashhad, and his hard-line positions alongside his increasing efforts to improve his public standing, make him the leading candidate at this stage in the battle of succession.” Raisi was born in December 1960 in Mashhad. Since the early 1980s, he has filled a series of positions in the judicial system, including as Tehran prosecutor, head of the General Inspection Office of the judicial authority, first deputy chief justice, and attorney-general of Iran. He was appointed by Khamenei in 2016 as chairman of the Astan Quds Razavi foundation in Mashhad, which Zimmt wrote is a powerful foundation that controls significant Islamic trusts, a wide range of assets, and large budgets. Besides those posts, Raisi serves as a member of the Expediency Council and as deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, which is responsible for overseeing the Supreme Leader’s activity, appointing his successor, and even potentially removing him from office if he is found unfit to continue to serve. Shortly after he became head of the judiciary, Raisi announced changes, including achieving greater efficiency. Zimmt said that Raisi placed the war on corruption toward the top of his agenda. For example, Raisi dismissed dozens of judges who were accused of involvement in corruption. In addition, Raisi announced he was reducing how many bank accounts he had, and would issue annual reports. This seemed an attempt to differentiate himself from his predecessor, Sadeq Larijani, who allegedly held more than 60 bank accounts with funds from citizens who had cases in the courts, wrote Zimmt. In mid-June 2019, Raisi published an unusual post on his Instagram account calling on Iranians to contact him through his personal social media accounts to suggest necessary improvements to the judicial system. “This initiative was warmly received, particularly by the pro-reform media, which expressed the hope that this would lead to a reexamination of the current policy of blocking social networks, and would strengthen the public’s trust in the judicial system,” Zimmt wrote. Likewise, in the same month, the Iranian media published pictures showing Raisi traveling to work on Tehran’s metro, apparently to strengthen his image as leading a simple and modest lifestyle, and he was granted an extensive media interview during Judiciary Week. Raisi has had problems with the reformist camp of Iranians due to his involvement in the mass executions of political prisoners in 1988, said Zimmt. Polling stations open at 7 a.m. local time and close at 2 a.m. on Saturday. The interior minister told state TV that due to the Covid-19 pandemic, voting will take place outside at 67,000 sites across the country, with social distancing and the donning of face masks required. The Interior Ministry has advised that results will be announced by midday on Saturday, less than 12 hours after the polls close. Reuters contributed to this report. 伊朗媒體對其選舉的評價 伊朗媒體對選舉感到興奮。Tasnim News 詢問投票站是否應該一直開放到凌晨 2 點。 作者:SETH J. FRANZMAN 2021 年 6 月 18 日 23:24 伊朗最高領袖阿亞圖拉阿里哈梅內伊於 2021 年 5 月 27 日在伊朗德黑蘭舉行的虛擬會議上發表講話。 (圖片來源:哈梅內伊官方網站/通過路透社的講義) 廣告 伊朗媒體正在密切報導其選舉。伊朗的選舉被廣泛認為是由極右翼阿亞圖拉領導的政權控制的,因此人民沒有真正的選擇,而易卜拉欣·雷伊西可能會獲勝。司法機構負責人被支持者稱為“原則主義者”,而不是“改革者”。對於大多數西方媒體來說,這意味著他是一個強硬派。 投票在早上開始,大約有 6000 萬合格選民。新聞電視台指出,“全國各地的民意調查於當地時間 6 月 18 日星期五上午 07:00 開始,並將持續到下午 05:00。投票可以延長至週六上午 12:00,如有必要,再延長兩個小時。” 幾名候選人在投票前退出,許多受歡迎的人物被禁止參選。其他參加選舉的人包括 Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh-Hashemi、Abdolnasser Hemmeti 和 Mohsen Rezaei。Hemmeti 是一位學者和經濟學家。Rezaei 是關鍵人物和前 IRGC 負責人。 伊朗媒體對選舉感到興奮。Tasnim News 詢問投票站是否應該一直開放到凌晨 2 點。這是因為親政府媒體想要增加投票率。近年來,低投票率損害了伊朗政權,使伊朗看起來似乎沒有人關心選舉,也不信任該政權。近年來,抗議該政權的伊朗人已被處決。在過去的十五年裡,伊朗也發生了幾次大規模抗議活動。 塔斯尼姆媒體稱這次選舉“光榮”並批評西方。它聲稱對選舉產生了新的“支持浪潮”。它聲稱“反革命分子”試圖減少投票率。然而,庫爾德地區似乎確實出現了抵制選舉的情況。塔斯尼姆說,“遜尼派”竟然在其他一些領域投票。親政府媒體表示,選舉違規的情況並不多。 在 Fars News,親政府頻道注意到,有些人聲稱某些地方缺少投票站。國家和頻道批評沒有向醫院提供移動醫療投票箱的事實。一份報告指出,西南部 Yasuj 的投票中斷。 一些社交媒體用戶在推特上發布了他們所說的伊朗猶太人和扎羅亞斯德教徒選民的照片。這些照片似乎也在一次民意調查中顯示了基督教牧師。 批評人士說,選舉是一場騙局,極右翼正在掌權。如果在 2009 年米爾-侯賽因·穆薩維 (Mir-Hossein Mousavi) 競選時還有改革的希望,那麼今天似乎希望渺茫。穆薩維的支持者在他輸球時集會並聲稱存在欺詐行為,他在競選活動中使用了綠色封面,多年來一直被軟禁。任何真正改變伊朗制度的嘗試似乎都以軟禁或處決告終。 What Iran’s media is saying about its elections Iran’s media is excited about the elections. Tasnim News has asked whether the polling stations should be kept open until 2am. By SETH J. FRANTZMAN JUNE 18, 2021 23:24 Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivers a speech during a virtual meeting in Tehran, Iran May 27, 2021. (photo credit: OFFICIAL KHAMENEI WEBSITE/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS) Advertisement Iran’s media is covering its elections intensely. Iran’s elections are widely seen as controlled by the far-right Ayatollah-led regime such that the people do not have a real choice and that Ebrahim Raeisi will likely win. The judiciary head is called a “principlist” by supporters, as opposed to a “reformer.” For most western media, that means he is a hardliner. Polls opened in the morning and there are some 60 million eligible voters. Press TV noted “polls opened across the country at 07:00 am local time on Friday, June 18, and will run until 05:00 pm. Voting can be extended until 12:00 am on Saturday, and for two more hours then, if necessary.” Several candidates dropped out before the vote and many popular figures were banned from running. Others contesting the elections included Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh-Hashemi, Abdolnasser Hemmeti and Mohsen Rezaei. Hemmeti is an academic and economist. Rezaei is a key figure and former IRGC head. Iran’s media is excited about the elections. Tasnim News has asked whether the polling stations should be kept open until 2am. This is because pro-government media want to increase the turnout. Low turnout has harmed Iran’s regime in recent years by making it seem no one cares about elections and don’t trust the regime. Iranians who protest the regime have been executed in recent years. Over the last decade and a half there have also been several mass protests in Iran. Tasnim media calls the elections “glorious” and critiqued the West. It claimed there was a new “wave” of support for the elections. It claims that “counter-revolutionaries” tried to reduce turnout. However, it does appear that there have been boycotts of the elections in the Kurdish region. Tasnim says “Sunnis” turned out to vote in some other areas. The pro-government media says there have not been many election violations. At Fars News, the pro-government channel has noted that some people claim there are a lack of voting booths in some parts. Of the country and the channel critiqued the fact that mobile medical voting boxes were not provided to hospitals. There was an interruption of voting in Yasuj in the southwest, one report noted. Some social media users tweeted photos of what they said were Jewish and Zaroastrian voters in Iran. The photos appeared to show Christian priests also at a poll. Critics say the elections are a sham and that the far-right is being entrenched in power. If in 2009 there was hope for reform when Mir-Hossein Mousavi ran, today there appears to be less hope. Mousavi, whose supporters rallied when he lost and claimed there was fraud, used the cover green in his campaign and has been under house arrest for years. It appears that any real attempt to change the system in Iran ends in house arrest or execution.

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