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2021.06.24 國際新聞導讀-伊朗宣稱美國同意解除對伊朗所有制裁與禁運、美國應小心扶持以色列新政府以免被納唐亞胡推翻、伊朗核武設施持續受到攻擊

外交官的國際新聞導覽及中東中亞的歷史故事 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia
2021-06-23
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2021.06.24 國際新聞導讀-伊朗宣稱美國同意解除對伊朗所有制裁與禁運、美國應小心扶持以色列新政府以免被納唐亞胡推翻、伊朗核武設施持續受到攻擊 伊朗官員稱美國已同意解除石油和航運制裁 美國總統喬拜登的新政府旨在恢復該協議,但雙方在需要採取哪些步驟以及何時採取措施上存在分歧。 通過路透 2021 年 6 月 23 日 12:31 2019 年 8 月 18 日,西班牙直布羅陀海峽,英國領土最高法院解除拘留令後,一名船員在伊朗油輪 Adrian Darya 1 上升起伊朗國旗,該油輪之前被命名為 Grace 1。 (照片來源:JON NAZCA/路透社) 伊朗週三表示,華盛頓已同意取消對伊朗石油和航運的所有製裁,並將一些高級人物從黑名單中刪除,以恢復德黑蘭 2015 年與全球大國的核協議,該協議現已暫停。 即將卸任的總統哈桑·魯哈尼(Hassan Rouhani)的幕僚長發表的言論與魯哈尼實用主義陣營官員先前的說法一致,即華盛頓準備在自 4 月在維也納舉行的會談中做出重大讓步。 在伊朗舉行總統選舉兩天后,會談於週日休會休息,強硬派易卜拉欣·賴西(Ebrahim Raisi)是美國黑名單上的伊朗司法機構負責人。賴西將於 8 月接替魯哈尼。 伊朗官方媒體援引總統辦公廳主任馬哈茂德·瓦茲 (Mahmoud Vaezi) 的話說:“已達成協議,取消(美國前總統唐納德)特朗普實施的所有保險、石油和航運制裁。” “根據該協議,將取消大約 1,040 項特朗普時代的製裁。還同意取消對個人和最高領導人核心圈子成員的一些制裁。” 美國國家安全顧問傑克沙利文週日表示,仍有“一段距離”,包括制裁和伊朗必須做出的核承諾。其他西方和伊朗官員也表示,談判距離結束還有很長的路要走。 伊朗在 2015 年同意限制其核計劃,以換取解除國際制裁。三年後,特朗普放棄了該協議並重新實施制裁,而德黑蘭則以違反一些核限製作為回應。 美國總統喬拜登的新政府旨在恢復該協議,但雙方在需要採取哪些步驟以及何時採取措施上存在分歧。 伊朗和西方官員都表示,賴西的崛起不太可能改變伊朗的談判立場,因為最高領袖阿亞圖拉阿里哈梅內伊已經對所有重大政策擁有最終決定權。 然而,一些伊朗官員表示,德黑蘭可能更願意在賴西上任之前達成協議,讓新總統一清二楚。 Iran official says US has agreed to lift oil, shipping sanctions The new US administration of President Joe Biden aims to restore the deal, but the sides disagree on which steps need to be taken and when. By REUTERS JUNE 23, 2021 12:31 A crew member raises the Iranian flag on Iranian oil tanker Adrian Darya 1, previously named Grace 1, as it sits anchored after the Supreme Court of the British territory lifted its detention order, in the Strait of Gibraltar, Spain, August 18, 2019. (photo credit: JON NAZCA/ REUTERS) Iran said on Wednesday that Washington had agreed to remove all sanctions on Iran's oil and shipping, and take some senior figures off a blacklist, at talks to revive Tehran's 2015 nuclear deal with global powers which are now on a pause. The remarks, by outgoing president Hassan Rouhani's chief of staff, were consistent with previous assertions by officials in Rouhani's pragmatist camp that Washington is prepared to make major concessions at the talks, under way since April in Vienna. The talks adjourned on Sunday for a break, two days after Iran held a presidential election won by hardliner Ebrahim Raisi, the head of Iran's judiciary who is on the US blacklist. Raisi is due to replace Rouhani in August. "An agreement has been reached to remove all insurance, oil and shipping sanctions that were imposed by (former US President Donald) Trump," presidential chief of staff Mahmoud Vaezi was quoted as saying by Iran's state media. "About 1,040 Trump-era sanctions will be lifted under the agreement. It was also agreed to lift some sanctions on individuals and members of the supreme leader's inner circle." US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday there was still “a fair distance to travel”, including on sanctions and on the nuclear commitments that Iran has to make. Other Western and Iranian officials have also said the talks are a long way from a conclusion. Iran agreed in 2015 to curbs on its nuclear program in return for the lifting of international sanctions. Trump abandoned the agreement three years later and reimposed sanctions, and Tehran responded by violating some nuclear limits. The new US administration of President Joe Biden aims to restore the deal, but the sides disagree on which steps need to be taken and when. Iranian and Western officials alike say Raisi’s rise is unlikely to alter Iran’s negotiating position, as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei already has final say on all major policy. However, some Iranian officials have suggested Tehran may prefer an agreement before Raisi takes office to give the new president a clean slate. 為什麼美國要奪取伊朗新聞電視台和其他網站?- 分析 伊朗通訊社稱,美國政府查封了幾家伊朗媒體網站和屬於伊朗附屬團體的網站。 作者:尤娜傑瑞米鮑勃 2021 年 6 月 23 日 18:09 2020 年 11 月 3 日,伊朗最高領袖阿亞圖拉·阿里·哈梅內伊在先知穆罕默德誕辰之際在伊朗德黑蘭發表虛擬演講。 (圖片來源:哈梅內伊官方網站/通過路透社的講義) 廣告 週二,一些伊朗附屬網站上出現通知,稱它們已被美國政府扣押,作為執法行動的一部分。 伊朗通訊社稱,美國政府查封了數家伊朗媒體網站以及隸屬於也門胡塞運動等與伊朗有關聯的團體的網站。 這場運動是關於什麼的,它是否會破壞華盛頓和德黑蘭之間的核談判? 簡而言之,拜登政府早就應該採取行動,利用美國在託管大部分互聯網方面所擁有的一些工具來反擊那些濫用互聯網試圖通過錯誤信息運動撕裂美國的流氓國家。 這與言論自由無關。美國政府的一份聲明明確表示,被查封的網站是伊朗政府“顛覆美國民主進程”的前線。 美國可以做得更多,可以入侵伊朗的大量互聯網服務和基礎設施。 它在周二所做的只是告訴伊朗,它不能再濫用美國的互聯網財產來試圖在沒有任何後果的情況下摧毀美國。 多年來,至少自從俄羅斯成功利用社交媒體影響 2016 年美國總統選舉的各個方面以來,莫斯科、北京、平壤和德黑蘭都使用不同級別的社交媒體試圖系統地影響美國輿論。 在伊朗的案例中,阿亞圖拉多年來一直逍遙法外,相當於網絡“謀殺”,實際上沒有造成任何公共後果。 無論是在特朗普還是拜登政府的領導下,無論是面臨侵略還是參與,伊朗一直試圖干涉美國公眾輿論,並試圖讓不同的美國族群相互對抗。 有時目標是讓美國人對伊朗更加積極,或者害怕與伊朗開戰;有時導致種族衝突普遍削弱美國並引發令人尷尬的事件,然後伊斯蘭共和國可以指出這些事件拒絕美國對其威權制度的批評。 美國還在網上回擊了伊朗的一些代理人。 由也門胡塞武裝組織運營的 Masirah TV 網站上寫著: “作為工業和安全局、出口執法辦公室和聯邦調查局執法行動的一部分,美國政府根據扣押令扣押了域名 almasirah.net。” 與伊拉克 Kataib Hezbollah 相關的網站也成為攻擊目標,該組織經常向伊拉克的美國人發射火箭。 伊朗的阿拉伯語 Aalam TV 在其 Telegram 頻道上說:“美國當局關閉了 Al-Alam TV 的網站。” 通知也出現在伊朗新聞電視台和 Lualua 電視台的網站上,這是一個從英國廣播的巴林獨立頻道。 去年 10 月,美國檢察官查獲了一個 Web 域網絡,他們說伊朗革命衛隊 (IRGC) 使用該網絡在世界各地傳播政治虛假信息。 美國司法部當時表示,它已經控制了 IRGC 使用的 92 個域名,這些域名偽裝成針對美國、歐洲、中東和東南亞受眾的獨立媒體。 這是下一步,儘管奪取像伊朗新聞電視台這樣的知名網站會產生不可預測的漣漪。 這會對核談判產生負面影響嗎? 可能不會。 如果達成核協議,德黑蘭可能會發出威脅並要求美國不要採取此類行動。 但美國可能會回應說,它不會對任何正常國家採取此類行動——只會針對濫用互聯網試圖破壞美國穩定的國家。 歸根結底,阿亞圖拉需要核協議。 即使在 2015 年的核協議之後,他們的經濟也從未完全恢復;自特朗普於 2018 年重新實施制裁以來,他們的經濟一直處於混亂狀態。 此外,早在這些網站被查封之前,拜登政府就已經明確表示,它將像奧巴馬政府一樣,繼續對伊朗實施與其恐怖主義行為有關的所有非核制裁。 伊朗最高領袖阿亞圖拉阿里哈梅內伊簽署了 2015 年的協議,不是因為他喜歡放棄足夠的濃縮鈾來製造大約 10 顆核彈,而是因為經濟壓力。早在網站被佔領之前,他就對“大撒旦”美國發出了所有的威脅和仇恨,所有跡象表明他這次將做出同樣的務實計算。 因此,在新的易卜拉欣·賴西 (Ebrahim Raisi) 政府於 8 月接管伊朗之前或不久之後,仍有可能達成核協議。 網站被查封的時間是否是為了向 Raisi 發送消息,在交易簽署之前將其通過電報獲得,或者這是否只是拜登政府準備將其所有卡片排隊以獲取在法庭上保證這樣做,是一個單獨而有趣的問題。 這不會結束言論自由,也不會結束伊朗或其他外國對美國或以色列的民主進程或社會斷層線的干涉。 但這是一個新跡象,表明拜登政府已開始對來自伊斯蘭共和國和其他國家的網絡和社交媒體干預採取更加不容忍的態度。 Why is US seizing Iran Press TV, other websites? - analysis Iranian news agencies said that the US government had seized several Iranian media websites and sites belonging to groups affiliated with Iran By YONAH JEREMY BOB JUNE 23, 2021 18:09 Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivers a virtual speech, on the occasion of the Prophet Mohammad's birthday, in Tehran, Iran November 3, 2020. (photo credit: OFFICIAL KHAMENEI WEBSITE/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS) Advertisement Notices appeared on Tuesday on a number of Iran-affiliated websites saying they had been seized by the United States government as part of law enforcement action. Iranian news agencies said that the US government had seized several Iranian media websites and sites belonging to groups affiliated with Iran such as Yemen’s Houthi movement. What is this campaign about and could it blow up nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran? In short, it is a long overdue move by the Biden administration to use some of the tools America has in hosting much of the Internet to fight back against rogue countries who abuse the Internet to try to tear the US apart with misinformation campaigns. This has nothing to do with free speech. A US government announcement made it clear that the websites that were seized are fronts for the Iranian government to “subvert US democratic processes.” The US could do far more and hack wide swaths of Iran’s Internet-based services and infrastructure. All it did on Tuesday was to tell Iran that it could no longer abuse American Internet property to try to tear down the US without consequences. For years, at least since Russia’s success in using social media to influence aspects of the 2016 US presidential elections, Moscow, Beijing, Pyongyang and Tehran have all used varying levels of social media to try to systematically impact US public opinion. In Iran’s case, the ayatollahs have been getting away with the equivalent of cyber “murder” for years, with practically no public consequences. Whether under the Trump or Biden administration and whether confronted by aggression or engagement, one thing that has stayed consistent has been Iranian attempts to interfere with US public opinion and to try to turn different American ethnic sectors against each other. Sometimes the goal has been to get Americans to be more positive about Iran or to fear war with Iran; sometimes to cause ethnic strife to generally weaken the US and provoke embarrassing incidents which the Islamic Republic can then point to in rejecting American criticism of its authoritarian system. The US also hit back at some of Iran’s proxies online. The website of Masirah TV, which is run by the Houthis Yemen group, reads: “The domain almasirah.net has been seized by the United States government in accordance with a seizure warrant… as part of a law enforcement action by the Bureau of Industry and Security, Office of Export Enforcement and Federal Bureau of Investigation.” Websites tied to Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah, which regularly fires rockets on Americans in Iraq, were also targeted. Iran’s Arabic-language Alalam TV said on its Telegram channel: “US authorities shut down Al-Alam TV’s website.” Notices have also appeared on websites of Iran’s Press TV and Lualua TV, a Bahraini independent channel which broadcasts from Britain. Last October, US prosecutors seized a network of Web domains that they said were used in a campaign by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to spread political disinformation around the world. The US Justice Department said then that it had taken control of 92 domains used by the IRGC to pose as independent media outlets targeting audiences in the United States, Europe, Middle East and Southeast Asia. This is the next step, though seizing a high-profile website like Iran’s Press TV will create unpredictable ripples. Will this negatively impact nuclear negotiations? Probably not. Tehran may make threats and demand the US not take such actions going forward if there is a nuclear deal. But the US will likely respond that it doesn’t take such actions against any normal countries – only nations that abuse the Internet to try to destabilize America. At the end of the day, the ayatollahs need the nuclear deal. Their economy never recovered fully even after the 2015 nuclear deal; and since Trump reimposed sanctions in 2018, their economy has been in shambles. Further, long before these website seizures, the Biden administration has made it clear that it will maintain all nonnuclear sanctions on Iran related to its terrorist behavior, just as the Obama administration did. And Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei signed the 2015 deal not because he liked giving up enough enriched uranium for around 10 nuclear bombs, but because of the economic pressure. With all of his threats and hatred for the “big Satan” US long before the website seizures, all signs are he will make the same businesslike calculation this time. So there will still likely be a nuclear deal by, before or not long after the new Ebrahim Raisi administration takes over Iran in August. Whether the timing of the websites’ seizure was meant to send a message to Raisi, to get it in under the wire before the deal is signed, or whether this was just when the Biden administration got around to lining up all of its cards to obtain warrants in court to do so, is a separate and interesting question. This does not end free speech, and it will not end interference by Iran or other foreign countries with the US or Israel’s democratic processes or social fault lines. But it is a new sign that the Biden administration has started to act with more intolerance for cyber and social media interference from the Islamic Republic and others. 伊朗原子設施在襲擊中嚴重受損 - 消息來源 伊朗全天聲稱破壞行動失敗,沒有造成損害或人員傷亡。 作者:YONAH JEREMY BOB , TZVI JOFFRE 2021 年 6 月 23 日 20:53 在德黑蘭舉行的伊朗國家核能日期間,可以看到許多新一代伊朗離心機展出 (圖片來源:伊朗總統辦公室/WANA(西亞新聞社)/通過路透社提供的資料) 廣告 耶路撒冷郵報週三晚獲悉,儘管伊朗否認,但對伊朗原子能組織(IAEO)一座建築物的破壞行動造成了重大破壞。 儘管伊朗一整天都聲稱破壞行動失敗並且沒有造成任何損害或人員傷亡,但郵報已經得到了強烈的暗示,儘管它無法獨立確認。 據稱,伊朗當局正在調查這起事件。目前尚不清楚襲擊是如何進行的。 伊朗梅爾通訊社週三報導稱,一架四軸飛行器被用來試圖破壞 AEO 的一座建築物,但失敗並最終被擊落。 當天早些時候,伊朗 ILNA 通訊社報導說,無人機襲擊了卡拉季的 Barakat 製藥工業綜合體,該綜合體正在開發冠狀病毒疫苗,但隨後從他們的網站上刪除了該報導。 ILNA 編輯 Fatemeh Mahdiani 發推文說,在一家安全機構致電新聞社並告知他們目標是位於 Barakat 綜合體旁邊的 AEO 大樓,並且沒有造成任何損壞後,該報告被刪除。 來自 Khatam al-Anbia 聯合防空基地的知情人士後來否認該事件是無人機襲擊,並告訴伊朗媒體,這可能是一次破壞行為。 儘管伊朗週三在 2020 年 7 月和 2021 年 4 月都提出了聲明,但伊朗最初向全球媒體撒謊,試圖淡化對納坦茲關鍵核設施的破壞活動。 在這兩種情況下,伊朗官員最初都聲稱損失很小,屬於例行事故。 這些官員承認,伊朗濃縮鈾的離心機計劃在兩次納坦茲事件發生幾天后就遭到大規模挫折,當時《華盛頓郵報》和其他人報導了真正的全部破壞程度。 外國消息人士將這兩項行動歸咎於摩薩德,郵報能夠證實這一點。 有關 IAEO 設施的更新是在德黑蘭的一個敏感時期進行的。 一方面,美國、伊朗和世界大國最近在維也納完成了解決核僵局的第六輪談判,尚未安排新的會議。 談判各方的洩密表明,雙方可能會在現在到 8 月中旬伊朗新政府上台之間達成協議。 然而,他們之間顯然仍然存在分歧,最近的這一事件要么破壞伊朗的談判立場,要么破壞雙方之間的信任——無論誰可能負責。 此外,易卜拉欣·賴西(Ebrahim Raisi)週六被宣佈為伊朗總統競選的獲勝者,他一直在發表演講,並試圖在世界舞台上樹立強大的形象。 最近的這一事件可能會破壞他展現實力光環的努力——或者可能使他能夠從即將卸任的政府中清除政治對手。 該事件也是在伊朗布什爾核電站緊急關閉幾天后發生的。 據伊朗法爾斯通訊社報導,國際原子能機構報告說,技術缺陷導致發電廠暫時關閉並與國家電網斷開連接。 該組織表示,該工廠將在幾天內重新連接到電網。 截至週二,布什爾發電廠的維修工作仍在進行中。 Iran atomic facility substantially damaged in attack - sources Iran claimed throughout the day that the sabotage failed and caused no damage or casualties. By YONAH JEREMY BOB, TZVI JOFFRE JUNE 23, 2021 20:53 A number of new generation Iranian centrifuges are seen on display during Iran's National Nuclear Energy Day in Tehran (photo credit: IRANIAN PRESIDENCY OFFICE/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY)/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS) Advertisement A sabotage operation against one of the buildings of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO) caused major damage – despite Iranian denials, The Jerusalem Post learned on Wednesday night. Although Iran has claimed throughout the day that the sabotage failed and caused no damage or casualties, the Post has been given strong indications otherwise, though it has no way to independently confirm. The incident is said to be under investigation by Iranian authorities. It is as of yet unclear how the attack was carried out. The Iranian Mehr News Agency reported on Wednesday that a quadcopter was used in the attempt to sabotage a building at the AEO, but failed and was eventually shot down. Earlier in the day, the Iranian ILNA news agency reported that a drone attack targeted the Barakat Pharmaceutical Industries complex in Karaj, which is developing a coronavirus vaccine, but subsequently removed the report from their website. ILNA editor Fatemeh Mahdiani tweeted that the report was removed after a security agency called the news agency and informed them that the target was the AEO building located next to the Barakat complex, and that no damage had been caused. An informed source from the Khatam al-Anbia Joint Air Defense Base later denied that the incident was a drone attack, telling Iranian media that it was likely an act of sabotage. Despite Iranian claims on Wednesday, both in July 2020 and April 2021, the Islamic Republic initially lied to the global media in trying to downplay sabotage operations of key nuclear facilities at Natanz. In both cases, Iranian officials initially claimed that the damage was minor and a routine accident. These officials admitted that Iran’s centrifuge program for enriching uranium was massively set back only several days after the two Natanz incidents, when The Post and others reported the real full extent of the damage. Both operations were attributed by foreign sources to the Mossad, which the Post was able to validate. The update regarding the IAEO facility comes at a sensitive time for Tehran. On one hand, the US, Iran and the world powers recently finished a sixth round of negotiations in Vienna to resolve the nuclear standoff, with no new meetings yet scheduled. Leaks from all parties to the negotiations suggest that the sides could reach a deal between now and mid-August when a new Iranian administration takes power. However, there are clearly still differences between them, and this latest incident could either undermine Iran’s negotiating position or undermine trust between the parties – regardless of who might be responsible. In addition, Ebrahim Raisi was declared the winner of Iran’s presidential race on Saturday and he has been giving speeches and trying to project a powerful image on the world stage. This latest incident could undermine his efforts to roll out his aura of strength – or could empower him to clean out political rivals from the outgoing administration. The incident also comes just days after Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant underwent an emergency shutdown. The IAEO reported that a technical defect led to the power plant being temporarily shut down and disconnected from the national electricity grid, according to the Iranian Fars News Agency. The organization stated that the plant would be reconnected to the electricity grid in a matter of days. As of Tuesday, repairs at the Bushehr power plant were still ongoing. 曼蘇爾·阿巴斯(Mansour Abbas)提供副建築部長職位 以色列從未為阿拉伯人建造過一座新城市,而阿巴斯可能有機會改變這一點。 通過GIL HOFFMAN 2021 年 6 月 23 日 21:35 曼蘇爾·阿巴斯在以色列議會。 (照片來源:HADAS PARUSH/FLASH90) 廣告 建設和住房部長澤耶夫埃爾金周三提議拉阿姆(阿拉伯聯合酋長國名單)主席曼蘇爾阿巴斯擔任該部的副手,以解決新聯盟的第一場危機。 該職位將使阿巴斯能夠授權為以色列阿拉伯人建造數万套住房。以色列從未為阿拉伯人建造過一座新城市,而阿巴斯可能有機會改變這一點。 聯盟危機結束了一項有爭議的法令,該法令阻止巴勒斯坦人和阿拉伯以色列人的家庭團聚,該法令必須在下週在以色列議會進行投票。在解決爭端的新努力中,埃爾金讓阿巴斯擔任法律人道主義例外委員會主席,他可以在該委員會中每月審查特定案件。 在梅雷茨宣布將投票支持該法令後,阿巴斯掌握著通過該法令的關鍵,儘管遭到反對,以保持聯盟團結。 週三,當反叛者 Yamina MK Amichai Chikli 同意支持該法令時,該聯盟也獲得了提振。 在最初反對組建政府後,奇克利在大多數情況下有望接受聯盟紀律,以換取被允許加入以色列議會委員會。Chikli 同意與聯盟領導人協調他的投票,後者將在某些情況下賦予他以良心投票的權利。 宗教猶太復國主義黨表示,埃爾金向阿巴斯提出的提議證明,為了生存,聯盟將出賣以色列的國家安全利益。 Mansour Abbas offered deputy construction minister post Israel has never built a new city for Arabs, and Abbas could have the opportunity to change that. By GIL HOFFMAN JUNE 23, 2021 21:35 MANSOUR ABBAS in the Knesset. (photo credit: HADAS PARUSH/FLASH90) Advertisement Construction and Housing Minister Ze’ev Elkin offered Ra’am (United Arab List) chairman Mansour Abbas to be his deputy in the ministry on Wednesday, in an effort to resolve the first crisis in the new coalition. The post would enable Abbas to authorize the construction of tens of thousands of housing units for Israeli Arabs. Israel has never built a new city for Arabs, and Abbas could have the opportunity to change that. The coalition crisis is over a controversial ordinance preventing family reunification of Palestinians and Arab-Israelis that must come to a vote in the Knesset next week. In a new effort to resolve the dispute, Elkin offered Abbas the chairmanship of a committee on humanitarian exceptions to the law, in which he could review specific cases monthly. Abbas holds the key to passing the ordinance, after Meretz announced that it would vote for it, despite its opposition, in order to keep the coalition together. The coalition also gained a boost on Wednesday, when rebel Yamina MK Amichai Chikli agreed to support the ordinance. After his initial opposition to the government’s formation, Chikli is expected to accept coalition discipline in most cases, in return for being allowed to join Knesset committees. Chikli agreed to coordinate his voting with the heads of the coalition, who would give him the right to vote his conscience in certain instances. The Religious Zionist Party said Elkin’s offer to Abbas proved that in order to survive, the coalition would sell out the national security interests of Israel. 聯盟要持久,美國也需要合作——分析 華盛頓需要對它對以色列的要求保持聰明和敏感,以免它採取的措施導致這個政府垮台。 作者:HERB KEINON 2021 年 6 月 23 日 21:12 2016 年 3 月 8 日,美國總統喬·拜登在以色列特拉維夫附近的本古里安國際機場降落時從飛機上下來後做手勢 (圖片來源:路透社/BAZ RATNER) 廣告 當前的貝內特-拉皮德政府 能夠持續下去的唯一方式 ——一個包括左翼梅雷茨和工黨、右翼亞米納和新希望以及拉姆(阿拉伯聯合名單)的政府——是讓各方將他們的意識形態納入他們的口袋。 至少是暫時的。至少在這個政府的存在期間。 這意味著,例如,梅雷茨將不得不停止推動反和解議程,而亞米娜不得推動支持和解議程。在這種情況下,Meretz MK Mossi Raz 共同贊助了一項 週二在以色列議會會議上討論以色列是一個“種族隔離國家”,這是一種會縮短本屆政府壽命的噱頭。 正如納夫塔利·貝內特總理和外交部長亞伊爾·拉皮德所意識到的那樣,這個政府生存的唯一途徑是將這些問題擱置一旁,專注於右翼、左翼和拉姆可以團結起來的問題——例如冠狀病毒. 但是,聯盟不僅要關注共識問題,並儘其所能將意識形態佔用的帶寬降至最低;不僅要由梅雷茨和亞米娜的首腦們來意識到,現在還不是全力推行他們的意識形態議程的時候;美國政府也有責任對以色列微妙的政治時刻保持敏感,並設法避免推動可能導致政府內部意識形態衝突的問題,從而使其垮台。 在由當時的總理本傑明·內塔尼亞胡領導的右翼政府執政 12 年後,這一任期見證了與民主黨總統(巴拉克·奧巴馬)和民主黨的前所未有的摩擦,傳統觀點認為, 美國總統喬·拜登的 現任民主黨政府是很高興與耶路撒冷的不同團隊合作,並且可能並不渴望內塔尼亞胡的回歸。 因此,華盛頓需要對它對以色列的要求保持聰明和敏感,以免它採取的措施導致本屆政府垮台。 以結算問題為例。鑑於當前聯盟的組成,政府不太可能在定居點啟動重大建築項目:梅雷茨、工黨和拉姆都會強烈反對。 但本屆政府也不太可能凍結所有建設,而 Yamina、New Hope 和 Yisrael Beytenu 會反對。因此,可能不時有關於主要定居區內的定居點或綠線以外的耶路撒冷社區的新項目的故事。 但是,儘管奧巴馬政府,甚至之前的布什政府,會大聲抗議在耶路撒冷附近的吉洛或內維亞科夫社區的新項目,更不用說在 Gush Etzion 或 Ariel 了,這屆政府——如果它想看到這一點的話政府持續超過幾個月,明智的做法是不要在這些類型的項目中提出重大問題,或者至少不要公開這樣做,以避免在此事上造成聯盟危機。 另一個可能引起聯盟內部不安的問題是美國打算重新開放其在耶路撒冷的領事館以處理巴勒斯坦問題,該辦公室在被前大使大衛弗里德曼關閉並併入美國大使館之前被視為一個巴勒斯坦人的非正式大使館。 如果華盛頓要求以色列允許重新開放領事館,這很可能會導致政府分裂,右翼反對,左翼支持。 雖然很難想像這會導致聯盟瓦解——但在這個早期階段的政黨很可能會找到克服這一障礙的方法,就像他們很可能會找到一種方法來跳過家庭團聚法的障礙一樣這已經被拋在了一邊——這將迫使政府將這些問題放在議程的首位,如果政府要生存,最好不要管它。如果政府對這個政府的生存感興趣,它會優先考慮值得追求的事情,而不管那些可能引發以色列聯盟危機的問題。 有些人可能會爭辯說,美國需要追求自己的利益,而不必擔心這將如何在以色列國內政治舞台上發揮作用,但這是一種相當幼稚的觀點,因為以色列國內政治舞台確實對美國推動其發展的能力產生了影響自己的地區政策。 例如,反對派領導人內塔尼亞胡正在焦急地等待,準備突襲並將這個政府描繪成軟弱無力,無法承受美國的壓力,堅定不移地維護以色列的安全利益。 內塔尼亞胡已經做到了這一點,週一聲稱拉皮德同意新政府的“無意外”政策,從而喪失了以色列對伊朗採取行動的自由。如果他突然在一個無關緊要的問題上出手——因為這項政策長期以來一直是以美關係的理想標誌——想想如果政府默許東耶路撒冷的領事館或在定居點問題上讓步,他會發出多大的聲音。 然後是伊朗。除非出現任何不可預見的事態發展,否則美國現在似乎有望重新加入前總統唐納德特朗普退出的伊朗核協議。 以色列國防軍參謀長中將。Aviv Kohavi 目前在美國,這是他正在討論的主要問題之一。魯文·里夫林總統下週將在華盛頓會見拜登,在那裡也將提出這個問題,在美國正式重新加入該交易之前,貝內特很有可能被邀請到華盛頓。 很明顯,拜登和美國高級官員不需要會見以色列領導人,只是為了再次聽到以色列反對的方式和原因:內塔尼亞胡在過去幾個月裡已經非常清楚地表明了這一點。 然而,他們能做的是與美國就一項行動計劃達成協議,如果伊朗違反協議條款,將採取該行動計劃;就如何打擊伊朗在該地區的非核惡意行為達成共識;甚至同意如何根據新協議增強以色列的軍事能力。 在這裡,如果美國人也渴望看到這個政府最後,它需要考慮到以色列脆弱的政治時刻並採取相應的行動,意識到內塔尼亞胡只是在等待他可以用來將貝內特和拉皮德描繪成在安全問題上軟弱的東西,破壞並迅速瓦解這個聯盟。 For coalition to last, US also needs to cooperate - analysis Washington needs to be smart and sensitive to what it demands from Israel, lest steps it takes leads to this government’s downfall. By HERB KEINON JUNE 23, 2021 21:12 US President Joe Biden gestures after disembarking from a plane upon landing at Ben Gurion International Airport in Lod, near Tel Aviv, Israel March 8, 2016 (photo credit: REUTERS/BAZ RATNER) Advertisement The only way the current Bennett-Lapid government can last – a government that includes Meretz and Labor on the Left, Yamina and New Hope on the Right, and Ra’am (United Arab List) – is for the parties to put their ideologies in their pockets. At least temporarily. At least for the duration of this government’s life. That means, for instance, that Meretz is going to have to stop pushing an anti-settlement agenda, and Yamina must not push a pro-settlement one. In that context, Meretz MK Mossi Raz’s cosponsorship of a conference in the Knesset on Tuesday discussing Israel as an “apartheid state” is the type of stunt that will shorten the life of this government. As both Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid realize, the only way for this government to survive is to push aside those issues and concentrate on the ones that the Right, Left and Ra’am can rally around – issues such as the coronavirus. But it is not only up to the coalition to focus on consensus issues and try as much as it can to minimize the bandwidth taken up by the ideological ones; it is not only up to the heads of Meretz and Yamina to realize that now is not the time to run full force with their ideological agendas; it is also incumbent upon the US administration to be sensitive to Israel’s delicate political moment and find ways to avoid pushing issues that will lead to the types of ideological clashes inside the government that could bring it down. After 12 years of a right-wing government led by then-prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a tenure that witnessed unprecedented friction with a Democratic president (Barack Obama) and the Democratic Party, conventional wisdom holds that the US President Joe Biden’s current Democratic administration is pleased to be working with a different team in Jerusalem, and that it probably is not eager for Netanyahu’s return. As such, Washington needs to be smart and sensitive to what it demands from Israel, lest steps it takes lead to this government’s downfall. Latest articles from Jpost Continue watchingIran official says US has agreed to lift oil, shipping sanctionsafter the ad Take the settlement issue, for instance. Given the composition of the current coalition, it is unlikely that the government is going to initiate major building projects in the settlements: Meretz, Labor and Ra’am would all fervently oppose. But it is also unlikely that this government is going to freeze all construction either, something that Yamina, New Hope and Yisrael Beytenu would oppose. From time to time, therefore, there are likely to be stories about new projects in settlements inside the main settlement blocs, or in neighborhoods in Jerusalem beyond the Green Line. But whereas the Obama administration, and even the Bush administration before it, would protest loudly and publicly new projects in Jerusalem neighborhoods such as Gilo or Neveh Ya’acov, let alone in Gush Etzion or Ariel, this administration – if it wants to see this government last for more than just a few months, would be wise not to make major issues out of those types of projects, or at least not doing it publicly, to avoid creating a coalition crisis over the matter. Another issue that is likely to cause disquiet inside the coalition is the US intention to reopen its consulate in Jerusalem to deal with Palestinian issues, an office that before it was closed by former ambassador David Friedman and folded into the US Embassy, was viewed as an unofficial embassy to the Palestinians. If Washington asks Israel for permission to reopen the consulate, it is an issue likely to split the government, with those on the Right against, and those on the Left in favor. While it is difficult to imagine that this would lead to a collapse of the coalition – the parties at this early stage will likely find a way to overcome this hurdle, just as they are likely to find a way to jump over the family reunification law hurdle that has been tossed in its way – it would force to the top of the agenda issues that, if the government is to survive, would better be left alone. The administration, if it has an interest in this government’s survival, would do well to prioritize what is worth pursuing, and leave alone those issues that could trigger an Israeli coalition crisis. Some may argue that the US needs to pursue its own interests without worrying about how this will play out on the Israeli domestic political scene, but that’s a rather naïve view since the domestic Israeli political scene does have an impact on America’s abilities to push forward its own policies in the region. For instance, opposition leader Netanyahu is waiting impatiently in the wings ready to pounce and paint this government as weak and unable to withstand US pressure and stand firm on Israel’s security interests. Netanyahu already did that by alleging Monday that Lapid had forfeited Israel’s freedom of action against Iran by agreeing to a “no-surprises” policy with the new administration. If he pounced on a nonissue – because this policy has long been an aspirational hallmark of Israel-US relations – think how much noise he will make if the government acquiesces to a consulate in east Jerusalem or backs down on the settlement issue. AND THEN there is Iran. Barring any unforeseen developments, the US appears now on track to rejoin the Iranian nuclear deal that former president Donald Trump walked away from. IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kohavi is presently in the US, where this is one of the main issues he is discussing. President Reuven Rivlin will meet Biden next week in Washington, where the issue will also be raised, and chances are good that Bennett may be invited to Washington before the US formally rejoins the deal. It is obvious that Biden and top US officials do not need to meet Israel’s leadership just to hear again how and why Israel is opposed: Netanyahu has made that eminently clear for the last number of months. What they can do, however, is come to an agreement with the US on a plan of action that will be taken if Iran violates the terms of the agreement; come to a mutual agreement on how to combat Iran’s nonnuclear malign behavior in the region; or even agree to how Israel’s military capabilities can be enhanced in light of the new deal. Here, too, if the Americans are keen on seeing this government last, it needs to take into account Israel’s fragile political moment and act accordingly, realizing that Netanyahu is just waiting for something he can use to paint Bennett and Lapid as soft on security, to undermine and quickly break up this coalition.

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