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2021.08.10 國際新聞導讀-全球與以色列都注意到氣候變遷 升溫造成之極大負面影響、阿富汗6個省會被塔利班攻陷局勢敗壞、伊朗對西方提出警告不容許任意攻擊將隨時反擊

外交官的國際新聞導覽及中東中亞的歷史故事 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia
2021-08-09
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2021.08.10 國際新聞導讀-全球與以色列都注意到氣候變遷 升溫造成之極大負面影響、阿富汗6個省會被塔利班攻陷局勢敗壞、伊朗對西方提出警告不容許任意攻擊將隨時反擊 “人類的紅色代碼”:聯合國報告警告全球變暖史無前例 專家:“我看不到任何安全區域。無處可逃,無處可躲' * 2030 年代氣溫將升至 1.5 攝氏度以上 * 千年以來前所未有的變化 通過賽斯鮑仁斯坦今天,上午 11:58 · 在這張於 2018 年 10 月 18 日拍攝的照片中,年輕人坐在靜止的無發動機船上,這些船閒置在馬拉維東部松巴區乾燥的內陸奇爾瓦湖奇西島港口(AMOS GUMULIRA / AFP) · 在這張於 2019 年 8 月 15 日拍攝的檔案照片中,一張於 2019 年 8 月 15 日拍攝的航拍照片顯示,冰山沿著庫魯甦克附近的格陵蘭東部海岸漂浮(Jonathan NACKSTRAND / AFP) · 2021 年 7 月 17 日,德國西部的阿爾韋勒,居民和店主試圖清除家裡的泥土,並將無法使用的家具搬到外面。(Thomas Frey/dpa via AP) · 這張拍攝於 2021 年 8 月 9 日的照片顯示,在希臘第二大島埃維亞(Euboea)島上的 Pefki 村發生野火時,一根樹幹正在燃燒(ANGELOS TZORTZINIS / AFP) · 2021 年 7 月 29 日,阿根廷羅薩里奧干旱期間,鳥兒飛過一名男子,拍攝巴拉那河支流舊巴拉那河裸露的河床。(美聯社照片/維克多卡瓦諾,文件) · 文件 - 在這張 2021 年 7 月 26 日的文件照片中,一名男子在中國中部河南省新鄉市洪水期間拎著一袋袋洋蔥(美聯社照片/Dake Kang,文件) · 2021 年 8 月 5 日,迪克西大火的火焰吞噬了加利福尼亞州普盧馬斯縣格林維爾以南 89 號高速公路上的一所房屋(美聯社照片/諾亞伯傑) · 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5 · 6 · 7 美聯社——據周一發布的一份報告稱,地球氣候變得如此炎熱,以至於大約十年後的氣溫可能會超過世界領導人試圖阻止的變暖水平,聯合國稱之為“人類的紅色代碼”。 美國國家大氣研究中心的高級氣候科學家、報告的合著者琳達·梅恩斯 (Linda Mearns) 說:“這肯定會變得更糟。” “我看不到任何安全區域……無處可逃,無處可躲。” 但科學家們也對絕對最嚴重的氣候災難的可能性有所緩和。 權威的政府間氣候變化專門委員會 (IPCC) 報告稱氣候變化“明確由人類活動引起”,對 21 世紀的預測比上一次在 2013 年發佈時更準確、更溫暖。 根據減少的碳排放量,未來的五種情景中的每一種都超過了 2015 年巴黎氣候協議中設定的兩個閾值中更嚴格的閾值。 世界領導人當時同意嘗試將自 19 世紀後期以來的升溫限制在 1.5 攝氏度(2.7 華氏度),因為此後問題迅速增加。極限溫度僅比現在高零點幾度,因為在過去的一個半世紀裡,世界已經升溫了近 1.1 攝氏度(2 華氏度)。 報告稱,在每種情況下,世界都將在 2030 年代跨越 1.5 攝氏度的變暖大關,這比過去的一些預測要早。數據顯示,近年來氣候變暖加劇。 一輛消防車駛過格林維爾市中心,該中心於 2021 年 8 月 6 日在加利福尼亞州普盧馬斯縣被迪克西大火夷為平地(美聯社照片/諾亞伯傑) 在三種情況下,世界溫度也可能比工業化前時期超過 2 攝氏度(3.6 華氏度)——另一個不太嚴格的巴黎目標——熱浪、乾旱和引發洪水的傾盆大雨要嚴重得多,“除非大幅減少碳排放二氧化碳和其他溫室氣體排放將在未來幾十年發生,”報告稱。 廣告 美國國家海洋和大氣管理局高級氣候顧問 IPCC 副主席 Ko Barrett 說:“這份報告告訴我們,最近的氣候變化是廣泛、迅速和加劇的,這是數千年來前所未有的。” “我們經歷的變化將隨著進一步變暖而增加。” 這份來自 234 位科學家的 3,000 多頁報告稱,變暖已經在加速海平面上升、冰層縮小以及熱浪、乾旱、洪水和風暴等極端事件的惡化。熱帶氣旋變得越來越強,越來越潮濕,而夏季北極海冰正在減少,永久凍土正在融化。報告稱,所有這些趨勢都會變得更糟。 在這張日期為 2017 年 7 月的檔案照片中,一名因紐特海豹獵人在格陵蘭島阿馬薩利克島附近融化的冰山上觸摸一隻死去的海豹。(美聯社照片/約翰麥康尼科,文件) 例如,過去每 50 年發生一次的熱浪現在每十年發生一次,如果世界再升高攝氏度(1.8 華氏度),它將每七年發生兩次,報告稱。 報告稱,隨著地球變暖,一些地方不僅會受到極端天氣的影響,還會受到同時發生的多種氣候災害的影響。梅恩斯說,這就像美國西部現在正在發生的事情一樣,那裡的熱浪、乾旱和野火加劇了破壞。 報告稱,氣候變化帶來的一些危害——冰蓋減少、海平面上升以及海洋失去氧氣並變得更酸而發生的變化——“在幾個世紀到幾千年裡都是不可逆轉的”。 報告的合著者羅格斯大學的鮑勃·科普說,到本世紀中葉,世界將“鎖定”在海平面上升 15 到 30 厘米(6 到 12 英寸)的範圍內。 廣告 在這張 2021 年 7 月 29 日的檔案照片中,在阿根廷羅薩里奧發生乾旱期間,鳥兒飛過一名男子,拍攝了巴拉那河支流舊巴拉那河的裸露河床。(美聯社照片/維克多卡瓦諾,文件) 地球上發生的幾乎所有變暖都可以歸咎於二氧化碳和甲烷等吸熱氣體的排放。報告稱,至多,像太陽這樣的自然力量或簡單的隨機性可以解釋十分之一或十分之二的變暖程度。 該報告根據世界減少的碳排放量描述了五種不同的未來情景。它們是: 一個具有難以置信的大規模和快速污染削減的未來;另一個污染嚴重但沒有那麼大的污染;適度排放的情景;第四種情景,目前的小規模污染減排計劃仍在繼續;第五個可能的未來涉及碳污染的持續增加。 在之前的五份報告中,世界正走在最後一條最熱門的道路上,通常被稱為“一切照舊”。報告的合著者、美國太平洋西北國家實驗室的科學家克勞迪婭·特巴爾迪 (Claudia Tebaldi) 表示,這一次,由於在遏制氣候變化方面取得了進展,世界處於適度排放路徑和小幅減少污染的情景之間。 合著者 Maisia Rojas Corrada 表示,在某種程度上,通過極端和快速的減排,世界可以保持在 1.5 度的閾值,但即便如此,十年後變暖仍將達到 1.5 度,然後上升一點然後又下降。智利氣候與復原力研究中心主任。 聯合國秘書長安東尼奧·古特雷斯(Antonio Guterres)稱這份報告為“人類的紅色代碼”,但仍抱有一線希望,即世界領導人仍能以某種方式阻止升溫 1.5 度,他說這“非常接近”。 “我們能做的任何限制、放慢速度的事情都會得到回報,”特巴爾迪說。“如果我們不能達到 1.5,那可能會很痛苦,但最好不要放棄。” 在報告的最壞情況下,到本世紀末,世界可能比現在高 3.3 攝氏度(5.9 華氏度)。但報告的合著者、突破研究所氣候變化主任、氣候科學家 Zeke Hausfather 說,這種情況看起來越來越不可能。他說,這兩種極端情況看起來都不太可能發生。 “我們不太可能走運,最終變暖的程度比我們想像的要低得多。如果短期內不快速減少排放,我們將無法實現《巴黎協定》的目標,”豪斯法瑟說。“與此同時,如果我們確實減少排放,最終結果比我們預期的要糟糕得多的可能性要低得多。” 該報告稱,通常稱為“臨界點”的超災難性災難,如冰蓋崩塌和洋流突然放緩,“可能性很小”,但不能排除。Kopp 說,備受關注的大西洋洋流關閉將引發大規模的天氣變化,這在本世紀不太可能發生。 廣告 2021 年 7 月 23 日,在加利福尼亞州遭受旱災的中央山谷聖華金山谷南端,牛群在乾燥的景觀中吃草(Robyn Beck/法新社) 白宮副科學顧問簡·盧布琴科 (Jane Lubchenco) 說,這份報告“提供了做更多事情的強烈緊迫感”。 在一項新舉措中,科學家們強調瞭如何減少空氣中甲烷的含量,這種強大但壽命很短的氣體已經飆升至創紀錄的水平,可以幫助遏制短期變暖。 100 多個國家已做出非正式承諾,在本世紀中葉左右的某個時候實現“淨零”人為二氧化碳排放,這將成為今年秋天在蘇格蘭舉行的氣候談判的關鍵部分。報告稱,這些承諾至關重要。 “仍有可能阻止許多最可怕的影響,”巴雷特說。 ‘Code red for humanity’: UN report warns of unprecedented global warming Expert: ‘I don’t see any area that is safe. Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide’ * Temperatures will rise past 1.5° Celsius threshold in the 2030s * Changes unprecedented in millennia By SETH BORENSTEINToday, 11:58 am · · · · · · In this photo taken on October 18, 2018, young men sit in stationary engineless boats that lie idle at the dried inland Lake Chilwa's Chisi Island harbor in Zomba District, eastern Malawi (AMOS GUMULIRA / AFP) · In this file photo taken on August 15, 2019 an aerial photo taken on August 15, 2019 shows icebergs as they float along the eastern cost of Greenland near Kulusuk (Jonathan NACKSTRAND / AFP) · Residents and shopkeepers try to clear mud from their homes and move unusable furniture outside in Ahrweiler, western Germany, on July 17, 2021. (Thomas Frey/dpa via AP) · This picture taken on August 9, 2021 shows a tree trunk burning during a wildfire at the village of Pefki on Evia (Euboea) island, Greece's second largest island (ANGELOS TZORTZINIS / AFP) · Birds fly over a man taking photos of the exposed riverbed of the Old Parana River, a tributary of the Parana River during a drought in Rosario, Argentina, July 29, 2021. (AP Photo/Victor Caivano, File) · FILE - In this July 26, 2021 file photo, a man carries bags of onions during flooding in Xinxiang in central China's Henan Province (AP Photo/Dake Kang, File) · Flames from the Dixie Fire consume a home on Highway 89 south of Greenville on Aug. 5, 2021, in Plumas County, Calif. (AP Photo/Noah Berger) · 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5 · 6 · 7 AP — Earth’s climate is getting so hot that temperatures in about a decade will probably blow past a level of warming that world leaders have sought to prevent, according to a report released Monday that the United Nations calls a “code red for humanity.” “It’s just guaranteed that it’s going to get worse,” said report co-author Linda Mearns, a senior climate scientist at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research. “I don’t see any area that is safe… Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.” But scientists also eased back a bit on the likelihood of the absolute worst climate catastrophes. The authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, which calls climate change “unequivocally caused by human activity,” makes more precise and warmer forecasts for the 21st century than it did last time it was issued in 2013. Each of five scenarios for the future, based on how much carbon emissions are cut, passes the more stringent of two thresholds set in the 2015 Paris climate agreement. Get The Times of Israel's Daily Editionby email and never miss our top stories 表單的頂端 Newsletter email addressGET IT 表單的底部 By signing up, you agree to the terms World leaders agreed then to try to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since the late 19th century because problems mount quickly after that. The limit is only a few tenths of a degree hotter than now because the world has already warmed nearly 1.1 degrees Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) in the past century and a half. Under each scenario, the report said, the world will cross the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming mark in the 2030s, earlier than some past predictions. Warming has ramped up in recent years, data shows. A fire truck drives through central Greenville, which was largely leveled by the Dixie Fire, Aug. 6, 2021, in Plumas County, California (AP Photo/Noah Berger) In three scenarios, the world will also likely exceed 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-industrial times — the other, less stringent Paris goal — with far worse heat waves, droughts and flood-inducing downpours “unless deep reductions in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades,” the report said. ADVERTISEMENT “This report tells us that recent changes in the climate are widespread, rapid and intensifying, unprecedented in thousands of years,” said IPCC vice chair Ko Barrett, senior climate adviser for the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “The changes we experience will increase with further warming.” The 3,000-plus-page report from 234 scientists said warming is already accelerating sea level rise, shrinking ice and worsening extremes such as heat waves, droughts, floods and storms. Tropical cyclones are getting stronger and wetter, while Arctic sea ice is dwindling in the summer and permafrost is thawing. All of these trends will get worse, the report said. In this file photo dated July 2017, an Inuit seal hunter touches a dead seal atop a melting iceberg near Ammassalik Island, Greenland. (AP Photo/John McConnico, FILE) For example, the kind of heat wave that used to happen only once every 50 years now happens once a decade, and if the world warms another degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), it will happen twice every seven years, the report said. As the planet warms, places will get hit more not just by extreme weather but by multiple climate disasters that occur simultaneously, the report said. That’s like what’s now happening in the Western US, where heat waves, drought and wildfires compound the damage, Mearns said. Some harm from climate change — dwindling ice sheets, rising sea levels and changes in the oceans as they lose oxygen and become more acidic — are “irreversible for centuries to millennia,” the report said. The world is “locked in” to 15 to 30 centimeters (6 to 12 inches) of sea level rise by mid-century, said report co-author Bob Kopp of Rutgers University. ADVERTISEMENT In this July 29, 2021 file photo, birds fly over a man taking photos of the exposed riverbed of the Old Parana River, a tributary of the Parana River during a drought in Rosario, Argentina. (AP Photo/Victor Caivano, File) Nearly all of the warming that has happened on Earth can be blamed on emissions of heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. At most, natural forces like the sun or simple randomness can explain one- or two-tenths of a degree of warming, the report said. The report described five different future scenarios based on how much the world reduces carbon emissions. They are: a future with incredibly large and quick pollution cuts; another with intense pollution cuts but not quite as massive; a scenario with moderate emissions; a fourth scenario where current plans to make small pollution reductions continue; and a fifth possible future involving continued increases in carbon pollution. In five previous reports, the world was on that final hottest path, often nicknamed “business as usual.” But this time, the world is somewhere between the moderate emissions path and the small pollution reductions scenario because of progress to curb climate change, said report co-author Claudia Tebaldi, a scientist at the US Pacific Northwest National Lab. In a way, the world can stay at the 1.5-degree threshold with extreme and quick emission cuts, but even then, warming would hit 1.5 degrees in a decade, rise a tad and then come back down, said co-author Maisia Rojas Corrada, director of the Center for Climate and Resilience Research in Chile. While calling the report “a code red for humanity,” United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres kept a sliver of hope that world leaders could still somehow prevent 1.5 degrees of warming, which he said is “perilously close.” “Anything we can do to limit, to slow down, is going to pay off,” Tebaldi said. “And if we cannot get to 1.5, it’s probably going to be painful, but it’s better not to give up.” In the report’s worst-case scenario, the world could be around 3.3 degrees Celsius (5.9 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter than now by the end of the century. But that scenario looks increasingly unlikely, said report co-author and climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, climate change director of the Breakthrough Institute. Both extremes are looking less likely, he said. “We are a lot less likely to get lucky and end up with less warming than we thought. We won’t be able to meet Paris Agreement goals without rapid near-term reductions in our emissions,” Hausfather said. “At the same time, the odds of ending up in a much worse place than we expected if we do reduce our emissions are notably lower.” The report said ultra-catastrophic disasters, commonly called “tipping points,” like ice sheet collapses and the abrupt slowdown of ocean currents are “low likelihood” but cannot be ruled out. The much talked-about shutdown of Atlantic ocean currents, which would trigger massive weather shifts, is something that’s unlikely to happen in this century, Kopp said. ADVERTISEMENT Cows graze in a dry landscape in Grapevine, California, at the southern end of the San Joaquin Valley in California’s drought-stricken Central Valley on July 23, 2021 (Robyn Beck / AFP) The report “provides a strong sense of urgency to do even more,” said Jane Lubchenco, the White House deputy science adviser. In a new move, scientists emphasized how cutting airborne levels of methane, a powerful but short-lived gas that has soared to record levels, could help curb short-term warming. More than 100 countries have made informal pledges to achieve “net zero” human-caused carbon dioxide emissions sometime around mid-century, which will be a key part of climate negotiations this fall in Scotland. The report said those commitments are essential. “It is still possible to forestall many of the most dire impacts,” Barrett said. 持續升溫:數據顯示,酷熱在以色列越來越成為常態 數字計算器吉爾·大衛 (Gil David) 編制的圖表令人恐懼地顯示了以色列如何在更長的時間內經歷更熱的日子 由蘇SURKES 2021 年 8 月 3 日,晚上 8:52 以色列人在特拉維夫的海灘上,2021 年 6 月 29 日。(Miriam Alster/FLASH90) 隨著以色列在長時間的高溫下噝噝作響,乾燥的條件再次引發叢林大火,數字計算器吉爾大衛博士匯總的數據強調了該國越來越多的炎熱天氣正在成為常態。 David 是一位數據科學家和研究員,他的博客Data Science Storytelling提供了關於包括氣候變化在內的大量主題的文本、圖表和圖表,週一發布了一張圖表,顯示了 1964 年至 2020 年之間的年度熱浪天數。 他選擇將熱浪定義為最高溫度超過閾值的至少三到四天——閾值是基期(通常至少持續 30 年)最高溫度的第 90 個百分點。 跳過廣告 該圖顯示了幾十年來熱浪天數的不可避免的增加。 1964 年至 2020 年間以色列中部拜特達甘的年度熱浪天數。(禮貌,吉爾大衛) David 的另一張圖表在周一環境保護部氣候變化準備理事會的一次會議上展示,顯示了 1964 年至 2019 年特拉維夫一年中溫度超過 30 攝氏度(85°F)的天數。 1964 年至 1971 年期間,中心城市相對舒適,每年只有 11 至 22 天的氣溫高於 30°C。例外情況是 1966 年為 34 天,1968 年為 39 天,1970 年為 35 天。 2005 年至 2010 年期間,此類天數已經逐漸增加,達到每年 15 至 23 天,2010 年創下了 53 天的記錄。 近年來,這一趨勢進一步加快,2016 年有 90 天,2017 年有 81 天,2018 年有 98 天,2019 年有 88 天。 特拉維夫每年溫度超過 30 攝氏度(85°F)的天數。(由 Gil David 提供) 根據大衛對原始數據的彙編,夜間溫度也在上升。 以色列氣象局所在的以色列中部拜特達甘 (Beit Dagan) 記錄的 1964 年至 2020 年最低氣溫表明,最低氣溫超過 24°C (75.2°F) 的夜晚數量呈指數增長。 幾十年來,夜間溫度一直在上升。(禮貌,吉爾大衛) 以色列氣象局局長 Nir ​​Stav 告訴《以色列時報》,該國和整個東地中海經歷的長時間高溫天氣是由於一種稱為阻塞高壓的現象。 顯示 2021 年 8 月 3 日下午 3 點全國氣溫的地圖。(以色列氣象局) 他說,高層風的行為——從西到東在世界各地流動的氣流,通常與緯度平行,正在逐漸改變,科學家認為這是人為引起的全球變暖的結果。 以西流向東流為主,時而有些波狀,高空氣流越來越蜿蜒,像蜿蜒的河流,由西向東與更多的北向南或南向北相結合。 高空氣流的南北部分在緯度之間傳輸空氣。 廣告 有時,這些擺動的線條會形成一種天氣專家稱之為歐米茄的形狀,因為它的輪廓與該名稱的希臘字母相似。 出現在英國上空的歐米茄。(英國氣象局/YouTube 屏幕截圖) 這些 omegas 結構會在幾天內保持靜止狀態,從而導致它們產生的任何異常條件的時間延長。 就以色列目前的熱浪而言,來自熱帶非洲的熱空氣向上和向北移動,沿途冷卻,然後下降到東地中海上空的阻塞高處。在下降到地面的過程中,空氣受到不斷增加的大氣壓力的影響,從而壓縮和加熱它。 Nir Stav,以色列氣象局局長,(提供) 斯塔夫解釋說,同樣的現像是導致加拿大西海岸和美國北部大部分地區出現炎熱天氣的原因。 雖然歐米茄馬蹄形部分的條件是高壓並導致熱量,但緊鄰的條件是低壓並帶來更冷的天氣。因此,北美西海岸的異常高溫可能與大陸中部異常的寒冷緊縮共存,這解釋了幾個月前在德克薩斯州等地區報告的一些寒冷天氣。 Stav 將在阻塞高處下降到地面的空氣加熱與空調的作用進行了比較:站在室外裝置旁邊,您會感覺到裝置內部氣體壓縮產生的熱空氣,他說. Relentlessly hotter: Sizzling heat increasingly the norm in Israel, data shows Graphs compiled by number cruncher Gil David frighteningly show how Israel is experiencing hotter days over longer periods By SUE SURKES 3 August 2021, 8:52 pm Israelis at the beach in Tel Aviv, June 29, 2021. (Miriam Alster/FLASH90) As Israel sizzles under prolonged heat, with dry conditions that are once again sparking brushfires, data put together by number cruncher Dr. Gil David underscores the extent to which more and more scorching days in the country are becoming the norm. David, a data scientist and researcher whose blog Data Science Storytelling provides text, graphs and diagrams on a wealth of subjects including climate change, posted a graph on Monday showing the annual number of heatwave days between 1964 and 2020. He chose the definition of a heatwave as at least three to four days in which the maximum temperatures exceeded the threshold — the threshold being the 90th percentile of the maximum temperatures in the base period (usually lasting at least 30 years). The graph shows the inexorable rise in the number of heatwave days over the decades. Annual count of heatwave days between 1964 and 2020 in Beit Dagan, central Israel. (Courtesy, Gil David) Another of David’s graphs, presented at a meeting on Monday of the Environmental Protection Ministry’s Climate Change Preparedness Directorate, showed the number of days in a year in Tel Aviv during which temperatures exceeded 30 degrees Celsius (85°F), between 1964 and 2019. Get The Times of Israel's Daily Editionby email and never miss our top stories 表單的頂端 Newsletter email addressGET IT 表單的底部 By signing up, you agree to the terms Between 1964 and 1971, the central city was relatively comfortable, with temperatures above 30°C occurring on anything from 11 to 22 days per year only. The exceptions were 34 days in 1966, 39 in 1968 and 35 in 1970. Between 2005 and 2010, the number of such days was already creeping up, to 15 to 23 per year, with 2010 setting a record of 53 days. In recent years, the trend has picked up much further, with 90 such days in 2016, 81 in 2017, 98 in 2018 and 88 in 2019. ADVERTISEMENT Number of days per year in Tel Aviv when temperatures exceeded 30 degrees Celsius (85°F).(Courtesy, Gil David) Night temperatures have also been rising, according to David’s compilations of raw data. Minimum temperatures recorded between 1964 and 2020 at Beit Dagan, in central Israel, where the Israel Meteorological Service is located, show that the number of nights in which minimum temperatures exceeded 24°C (75.2°F) has increased exponentially. Night temperatures have risen over the decades. (Courtesy, Gil David) Nir Stav, Director General of the Israel Meteorological Service, told The Times of Israel that the lengthy period of very hot weather being experienced across the country and the entire Eastern Mediterranean is due to a phenomenon called a blocking high. A map showing temperatures across the country at 3 p.m. on August 3, 2021. (Israel Meteorologic Service) The behavior of upper-level winds — the currents of air that flow around the world from west to east, typically parallel to the latitudes, is gradually changing and scientists believe that this is a consequence of human-induced global warming, he said. From mainly straight west to east currents, with some waviness from time to time, the upper air streams are becoming more serpentine, like meandering rivers, combining a west to east direction with more north to south or south to north ones. The north-south bits of the upper air streams transfer air between the latitudes. ADVERTISEMENT Sometimes these wiggling lines create a shape that weather experts call an omega, because of the resemblance of its contours to the Greek letter of that name. An omega as it appears over the UK. (UK Met Office/YouTube screen capture) These omegas structures remain static for several days, causing extended periods of whatever abnormal conditions they create. In the case of Israel’s current heatwave, hot air from tropical Africa moved upwards and northwards, cooling along the way, before descending in a blocking high over the Eastern Mediterranean. During the descent to ground level, the air is subject to increasing atmospheric pressure which compresses and warms it. Nir Stav, Director General of the Israel Meteorological Service, (Courtesy) The same phenomenon is what has caused scorching weather over much of the western coast of Canada and the northern US, Stav explained. While conditions within the horseshoe part of the omega are high pressure and cause heat, those immediately adjacent are low pressure and bring colder weather. Thus, abnormal heat along the west coast of North America can coexist with an abnormal cold crunch in the center of the continent, explaining some of the freezing weather reported several months ago in areas such as Texas. Stav compared the heating of air that descends towards the ground in the blocking high to the action of an air conditioner: Stand next to the unit outside and you will feel the hot air that results from the compression of the gas inside the unit, he said. 非法捕魚對世界海洋保護區造成損失——以色列研究 特拉維夫大學的研究表明,人類壓力正在傷害生活在這些地區邊緣附近的海洋野生動物;在以色列,保護區顯示出積極跡象 由蘇SURKES 今天,凌晨 3:10 以色列自然和公園管理局。以色列北部 Achziv Rosh Hanikra 海洋保護區的海洋生物。(歐米西) 特拉維夫大學的一項研究表明,世界上超過一半的海洋保護區未能完成其創建目的,主要是由於非法過度捕撈。 海洋保護區 (MPA) 旨在保護海洋生態系統,並幫助保護和恢復因過度捕撈而數量日益減少的魚類種群和海洋無脊椎動物。 當海洋保護區正常運作時,海洋保護區內的海洋種群不僅應該​​在保護區內恢復,而且還會溢出並遷移到保護區外,從而加強海洋保護區外的數量。 MPA 的有效性已在全球進行的數千項研究中得到證實。但大多數人只對海洋保護區的“內部”和“外部”進行了採樣,對兩者之間的領域幾乎沒有研究。 博士生 Sarah Ohayon 和 Itai Granot 將屬於 72 個分類群的魚類和無脊椎動物的數量估計與它們在世界不同地區禁止捕魚的 27 個海洋保護區的空間分佈相結合。 表單的頂端 在特拉維夫大學動物學系和斯坦哈特自然歷史博物館的 Yoni Belmaker 教授的監督下,兩人發現“在 MPA 內有一個突出且一致的邊緣效應,延伸約 1 公里(0.62 英里),其中 [魚] 種群規模……比核心區域的種群小 60%,”主要是因為捕魚。 Papahānaumokuākea 海洋國家紀念碑的紅魚,這是美國最大的海洋保護區,也是世界上最大的海洋保護區之一。(由 PDTillman 上傳,CC BY 2.0,維基共享資源) 小於 10 平方公里或 6.2 平方英里的海洋保護區——佔世界上所有“禁止捕撈”海洋保護區的 64%,在那裡完全禁止捕魚——“可能只佔大約一半 (45-56%)研究人員最近在《自然生態學與進化》中寫道,這是普遍假設的魚類種群。 他們補充說,大約 40% 的海洋保護區只有一平方公里,這意味著整個區域可能會經歷這種邊緣效應。 廣告 研究人員得出的結論是,這些發現表明“現有禁捕海洋保護區的全球有效性遠低於以前的想像。” 在海洋保護區沒有發現邊緣效應,因為在它們周圍建立了禁止捕魚緩衝區,並且在沒有緩衝區的地方邊緣效應較少,但禁止捕魚。 “這些發現令人鼓舞,”研究人員說,“因為它們表明,通過建立緩衝區、管理海洋保護區周圍的捕魚活動和加強執法,我們可以提高現有海洋保護區的有效性,而且很可能還會增加它們所能帶來的好處。通過魚類外溢提供。” 在以色列,人們對以色列北部海岸的一系列海洋自然保護區寄予厚望,自 2015 年以來,在以色列自然和公園管理局的指導下進行了六次調查,最近一次是在 2019 年。 這些發現,自 2016 年漁業改革和 2018 年在 INPA 內設立海洋執法部門以來,以色列北部最大和最古老的 Achziv-Rosh HaNikra 保護區的商業魚類數量增長了三倍比保護區外的那些。石斑魚——在商業上很重要,但對捕魚也很敏感——的數量是外面的四倍,它們的生物量(活材料)是八倍。 監測海洋自然保護區的海洋生物。(以色列自然和公園管理局/YouTube 截圖) 所有海洋保護區以及保護區外的石斑魚數量都有所增加,這表明——科學家們說——保護區的存在和繁殖季節禁漁令的實施都產生了積極影響。 廣告 研究表明,在繁殖季節之外,保護區內的石斑魚能夠生長良好,產生更多後代,並更好地抵抗疾病和寄生蟲。 INPA 海洋執法負責人 Yigal Ben-Ari 告訴以色列時報,他“感覺到”以色列地中海沿岸的穩定,甚至是輕微的改善。 2016 年的改革禁止了某些類型的捕魚,確定了可以捕獲的魚的最小尺寸(讓幼魚有機會達到性成熟和繁殖),設定網孔的尺寸,授權首席漁業官發布禁令在繁殖和招募(幼魚生長階段)季節進行捕撈,並賦予 INPA 執法責任。 2021 年 6 月 4 日,一艘船主涉嫌在繁殖季節非法捕魚的漁船被以色列自然和公園管理局海洋執法部門沒收。(由 INPA 海洋執法部門提供) 該執法部門現已進入第三年,已經打開了 1,300 份違規檔案,並處以約 200 萬新謝克爾(615,000 美元)的罰款。罰款從 750 新謝克爾(230 美元)起。就在一周前,該單位沒收了一艘漁船,並對船東罰款 8,000 新謝克爾(2,465 美元),如果再次違反規定,再罰款 20,000 新謝克爾(6,160 美元)。 Nir Stern 博士於 2014 年開始在該國海洋學和湖沼研究所監測魚類種群,他說在漁業改革之前沒有真實數據可用於評估是否發生了過度捕撈。 他說,他的研究顯示了不同魚類種群的起起落落,他補充說,現在將任何趨勢與 2016 年的改革和執法部門聯繫起來還為時過早。 “潛水的人說他們看到的魚比平時多,”他說。“我認為大海正在恢復,但這需要時間。” Ben-Ari 強調,大多數休閒和商業漁民都遵守法律,並與 INPA 共同維護健康的海洋。 但是,由於 12 名檢查員負責 190 公里(118 英里)的地中海海岸,一名負責埃拉特 14 公里(8.7 英里)的海岸(還有一名負責加利利海,一個湖泊),所以該單位已經捉襟見肘。 Illegal fishing taking toll on world’s marine protected areas — Israeli study Tel Aviv University research shows human pressure is hurting marine wildlife living close to edges of such regions; in Israel, protected zones are showing positive signs By SUE SURKES Today, 3:10 am Israel Nature and Parks Authority. Marine life in the Achziv Rosh Hanikra marine reserve in northern Israel. (Omri Omessi) Well over half of the world’s marine protected areas are failing to do the job for which they were created, mainly due to illegal overfishing, a Tel Aviv University study shows. Marine protected areas, or MPAs, are designed to protect marine ecosystems and help to conserve and restore fish populations and marine invertebrates whose numbers are increasingly dwindling due to overfishing. When an MPA functions properly, marine stocks within it are supposed to not only recover within the protected area, but to spill over and migrate beyond it, strengthening numbers immediately outside of the MPA as well. The effectiveness of MPAs has been proven in thousands of studies conducted worldwide. But most have sampled only the “inside” and “outside” of the MPAs, with little research into the areas in between. Doctoral students Sarah Ohayon and Itai Granot combined estimates of the numbers of fish and invertebrates belonging to 72 taxonomical groups, with their spatial distributions across 27 MPAs in different parts of the world where fishing is banned. Under the supervision of Prof. Yoni Belmaker of Tel Aviv University’s Zoology Department and Steinhardt Museum of Natural History, the two found that “there is a prominent and consistent edge effect that extends approximately 1 kilometer (0.62 miles) within the MPA, in which [fish] population sizes…are 60 percent smaller than those in the core area,” mainly because of fishing. Red Fish at the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument, the largest marine conservation area in the US and one of the largest in the world. (Uploaded by PDTillman, CC BY 2.0, Wikimedia Commons) MPAs that are smaller than ten square kilometers, or 6.2 square miles — and these account for 64% of all ‘no-take’ MPAs in the world, where fishing is totally banned — “may hold only about half (45-56%) of the fish population” that is commonly assumed, the researchers wrote recently in Nature Ecology and Evolution. Some 40% of MPAs are just one square kilometer, which means that the entire area probably experiences this edge effect, they added. ADVERTISEMENT The findings, the researchers concluded, indicate that the “global effectiveness of existing no-take MPAs is far less than previously thought.” No edge effects were found in MPAs which had no-fishing buffer zones created around them and there were less of these effects where there were no buffer zones, but bans against fishing were enforced. “These findings are encouraging,” the researchers said, “as they signify that by putting buffer zones in place, managing fishing activity around MPAs and improving enforcement, we can increase the effectiveness of the existing MPAs and most probably also increase the benefits they can provide through fish spillover.” In Israel, much hope is being pinned on the series of marine nature reserves along Israel’s northern coast, where six surveys have been carried out under the direction of the Israel Nature and Parks Authority since 2015, the most recent in 2019. These have found that since a fisheries reform in 2016 and the creation of a marine enforcement unit within the INPA in 2018, commercial fish numbers in the Achziv-Rosh HaNikra Reserve, in northern Israel, the largest and oldest, have grown to three times more than those outside of the reserve. The number of groupers — which are commercially important but also sensitive to fishing — was four times greater than those outside, and their biomass (living material) was eight times greater. Monitoring marine life in a marine nature reserve. (Israel Nature and Parks Authority/YouTube screenshot) Grouper numbers increased in all marine reserves, as well as outside of them, suggesting — the scientists said — that both the existence of the reserves and the enforcement of fishing bans during the breeding season were having a positive effect. ADVERTISEMENT Out of the breeding season, groupers within the reserves were able to grow well, produce more offspring, and better resist disease and parasites, the research suggested. Yigal Ben-Ari, the INPA’s head of marine enforcement, told The Times of Israel that he “senses” stabilization, even slight improvement, along Israel’s stretch of the Mediterranean Sea. The 2016 reform banned certain types of fishing, determined minimum sizes of fish that can be caught (to give juveniles the chance to reach sexual maturity and reproduce), set the sizes for the holes in nets, empowered a chief fishery officer to issue bans on fishing during the breeding and recruitment (a stage of juvenile fish growth) seasons and gave the INPA responsibility for enforcement. A fishing boat whose owner was suspected of illegally fishing during the breeding season is confiscated by the marine enforcement unit of the Israel Nature and Parks Authority, June 4, 2021. (Courtesy, INPA marine enforcement unit) That enforcement unit, now in its third year, has already opened 1,300 files on violations and taken some NIS 2 million ($615,000) in fines. Fines start at NIS 750 ($230). Just a week ago, the unit confiscated a fishing boat and fined the owner NIS 8,000 ($2,465) and a further NIS 20,000 ($6,160) if the regulations are violated again. Dr. Nir Stern, who started monitoring fish populations at the country’s Oceanographic and Limnological Research Institute in 2014, said there was no real data from before the fisheries reform that could be used to assess whether overfishing had taken place. His research is showing ups and downs in different fish populations, he said, adding that it is too early to connect any trends with the 2016 reform and the enforcement unit. “People who dive say they’re seeing more fish than usual,” he said. “I think the sea is recovering, but it takes time.” Ben-Ari stressed that most recreational and commercial fishermen obeyed the law and shared the INPA’s interests in maintaining healthy seas. But with 12 inspectors responsible for the 190 km (118 mile) Mediterranean coast, one for Eilat’s 14 km (8.7 mile) coast (and one for the Sea of Galilee, a lake), the unit is stretched. 環境部長:聯合國報告顯示以色列必須宣布氣候緊急狀態 贊德伯格說,全球變暖的發現必須為世界和猶太國家敲響“警鐘”:“氣候危機的強度和緊迫性不容否認” 通過拉烏爾WOOTLIFF 今天,下午 1:21 2021 年 6 月 15 日,新任命的環境保護部長 Tamar Zandberg 在耶路撒冷環境保護部舉行的交接儀式上。(Olivier Fitoussi/Flash90) 環境保護部長塔馬爾·贊德伯格週一表示,聯合國關於全球變暖的新報告,其中包括對地球狀況的可怕警告,表明以色列必須宣布氣候變化為“戰略威脅”,以便為應對其帶來的挑戰做好適當的準備。為了祖國。 贊德伯格在一份聲明中說:“報告的要點毫無疑問地證明,氣候危機的強度和緊迫性已經不容否認,更重要的是,人類行為與氣候變化之間的聯繫不容否認或質疑。”報告出來後不久就發布了。 “這種聯繫現在可以用先進的科學工具來衡量,這應該給全世界敲響警鐘,”她說。 根據聯合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會的報告,地球氣候變得如此炎熱,以至於大約十年後的氣溫可能會超過世界領導人試圖阻止的變暖水平。 這份來自 234 位科學家的 3,000 多頁報告稱,變暖已經在加速海平面上升、冰層縮小以及熱浪、乾旱、洪水和風暴等極端事件的惡化。熱帶氣旋變得越來越強,越來越潮濕,而夏季北極海冰正在減少,永久凍土正在融化。報告稱,所有這些趨勢都會變得更糟。 贊德伯格說,自兩個月前政府宣誓就職以來,以色列“已經開始採取急需的行動,但我們必須大大加快行動和準備的步伐。” “為此,有必要宣布氣候緊急情況並將氣候危機定義為戰略威脅,並推斷出所需的準備行動,”她說。 上個月,在給總理納夫塔利·貝內特 (Naftali Bennett) 的一封信中,贊德伯格已經敦促政府宣布氣候危機為戰略威脅,並警告說,到 2050 年,與 1950 年相比,以色列的氣溫有望上升 4 度。 廣告 以色列人參加抗議遊行,要求立即對氣候變化採取行動,特拉維夫,2019 年 3 月 29 日。標誌上寫著:“你看到什麼綠色?” (亞當舒德曼/ Flash90) 環境保護部周一表示,該報告必須是對以色列政府的“警鐘”。 “是時候迅速採取行動了——一方面減少溫室氣體排放,另一方面更好地為氣候變化不可避免的影響做好準備,”該部在一份聲明中與讚德伯格的評論一起表示。 上週部長們批准的兩年期國家預算首次包括了 6.25 億新謝克爾(近 1.95 億美元)的特別撥款,用於應對氣候變化。 這筆資金將在兩年內用於資助一項五年計劃,將使環境保護部能夠推進可再生能源、綠色交通和清潔空氣倡議;幫助地方當局製定應對氣候變化的計劃;根據部委的一份聲明,並投資於環境研究和新技術等。 以色列南部拉馬特霍瓦夫工業區周圍未被承認的貝都因人村莊受到附近化學蒸發池和以色列電力公司發電廠的嚴重空氣污染。2017 年 12 月 28 日。 (Yaniv Nadav/FLASH90) 能源、交通、經濟和教育等其他部門以及以色列土地管理局也將收到尚未公開的款項,以幫助他們實施一項將在未來幾週內提出的減少全球變暖排放量的多年政府計劃。 所有這些資金都將用於實現上週提交給聯合國氣候變化框架公約的以色列減少全球變暖氣體排放的最新目標。 廣告 與 2015 年相比,該州承諾到 2030 年將整個經濟範圍內的全球溫室氣體淨排放量 (GHG) 削減 27%,到 2050 年削減 85%。 Sue Surkes 為本報告做出了貢獻。 Environment minister: UN report shows Israel must declare climate emergency Zandberg says global warming findings must act as ‘wake-up call’ for the world and the Jewish state: ‘The intensity and urgency of the climate crisis can no longer be denied’ By RAOUL WOOTLIFF Today, 1:21 pm Newly appointed Minister of Environmental Protection Tamar Zandberg at a handover ceremony at the Environmental Protection Ministry in Jerusalem on June 15, 2021. (Olivier Fitoussi/Flash90) Environmental Protection Minister Tamar Zandberg said Monday that the new UN report on global warming, which included dire warnings over the state of the planet, demonstrated that Israel must declare climate change as a “strategic threat” in order to properly prepare for the challenges it poses to the country. “The main points of the report prove beyond any doubt that the intensity and urgency of the climate crisis can no longer be denied, and more importantly, the connection between human actions and climate change cannot be denied or questioned,” Zandberg said in a statement released shortly after the report came out. “This connection can now be measured with advanced scientific tools, and this should constitute a wake-up call for the whole world,” she said. According to the report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Earth’s climate is getting so hot that temperatures in about a decade will probably blow past the level of warming that world leaders have sought to prevent. The 3,000-plus-page report from 234 scientists said warming is already accelerating sea level rise, shrinking ice and worsening extremes such as heat waves, droughts, floods and storms. Tropical cyclones are getting stronger and wetter, while Arctic sea ice is dwindling in the summer and permafrost is thawing. All of these trends will get worse, the report said. Zandberg said that Israel, since the government was sworn in two months ago, “has begun to take much-needed action, but we must greatly accelerate our pace of action and readiness.” “To this end, it is necessary to declare a climate emergency and define the climate crisis as a strategic threat and to deduce the preparatory actions needed,” she said. Last month, in a letter to Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, Zandberg had already urged the government to declare the climate crisis a strategic threat and warned that temperatures in Israel were on track to rise by up to four degrees by 2050 compared with 1950. ADVERTISEMENT Israelis take part in a protest march to demand immediate action on climate change, Tel Aviv, March 29, 2019. The sign reads: ‘What green do you see?’ (Adam Shuldman/Flash90) The Environmental Protection Ministry said Monday that the report must be a “wake-up call” to the Israeli government. “It’s time to act and fast — to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on the one hand and to better prepare for the inevitable effects of climate change on the other,” the ministry said in a statement alongside Zandberg’s comments. The two-year state budget approved by ministers last week includes for the first time a special allocation of NIS 625 million (nearly $195 million) to fight climate change. The money, to be allocated over two years to help fund a five-year program, will enable the Environmental Protection Ministry to advance renewable energy, green transportation and clean air initiatives; help local authorities to create programs for coping with climate change; and invest in environmental research and new technologies, among other things, according to a ministry statement. Unrecognized Bedouin villages around the Ramat Hovav industrial area in southern Israel suffer from a high level of air pollution from nearby chenical evaporation ponds and an Israel Electric Corporation power plant. December 28, 2017. (Yaniv Nadav/FLASH90) Other ministries, such as energy, transportation, economy, and education, and the Israel Lands Authority will also receive as yet undisclosed sums to help them implement a multi-year government plan for cutting global warming emissions that will be presented in the coming weeks. All of this funding will be used to reach the updated targets for cuts to Israel’s global warming gas emissions submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change last week. ADVERTISEMENT These commit the state to slashing economy-wide net global warming gas emissions (GHG) by 27 percent by 2030 and 85% by 2050, relative to 2015. Sue Surkes contributed to this report. 塔利班在激烈戰鬥中佔領6個省會 美國和英國敦促所有國民立即離開阿富汗,因為伊斯蘭主義者控制著該國 85% 的地區。 作者:ARSHAD MEHMOOD/媒體熱線 2021 年 8 月 10 日 00:15 2021 年 7 月 10 日,阿富汗赫拉特省郊區,前聖戰者組織手持武器支持阿富汗軍隊打擊塔利班。 (圖片來源:JALIL AHMAD/REUTERS) 廣告 [伊斯蘭堡]週一,激進的遜尼派運動佔領了第六個省會,阿富汗塔利班繼續快速取得勝利。 薩曼甘省副省長塞法圖拉·薩曼加尼說,在郊區發生數週衝突後,社區長老懇求官員不要讓該市遭受更多暴力,叛亂分子於週一早上未經戰鬥就進入了薩曼甘。 “州長接受並撤出了該市的所有部隊,”薩曼加尼補充說,並說塔利班現在處於“完全控制之下”。 塔利班發言人證實這座城市已被佔領。 週日晚上,在驅逐政府軍後,塔利班進入塔哈爾省首府塔洛坎,並在該國第七大城市的主廣場上懸掛了旗幟。 在過去的三天裡,塔利班還控制了省會扎蘭吉、謝貝爾汗、昆都士和薩爾-波爾。阿富汗有34個省。 有關 The Media Line 的更多故事,請訪問themedialine.org 在對喀布爾政府的巨大打擊中,塔利班於週日早上早些時候佔領了昆都士,這是一個被認為是通往北部省份的門戶的戰略城市。 攻占該國第六大城市昆都士是塔利班迄今為止最大的收穫。 昆都士通過高速公路與喀布爾、馬扎里沙裡夫(該國第四大城市)和巴達赫尚省以及塔吉克斯坦首都杜尚別相連。 與此同時,週六和周日在坎大哈國際機場發射了多枚火箭彈。 據當地媒體報導,“[週日]的襲擊沒有造成人員傷亡,但一架降落在機場的客機被改道飛往喀布爾。” 這是該機場三週內第五次遭受火箭彈襲擊。塔利班和阿富汗安全部隊在坎大哈、赫拉特和拉什卡爾加的戰鬥仍在繼續。 隨著塔利班襲擊的加劇,安全部隊在美國空軍的協助下發動了襲擊。 阿富汗國防部發言人法瓦德·阿曼週六表示,“美國B-52轟炸機對Jawzjan地區的塔利班發動了空襲,給他們造成了嚴重破壞。” 激烈的戰鬥和空中轟炸引起了人們對平民傷亡的日益擔憂。 塔利班首席發言人 Zabiullah Mujahid 告訴媒體專線,“在無恥的失敗之後,戰機故意轟炸平民並造成嚴重的附帶損害。喀布爾政府犯下了戰爭罪。 穆賈希德說:“喀布爾傀儡政權部隊正在逃離,並在他們身後留下大量武器、彈藥和軍用車輛。” Sar-e Pol 省議會成員 Obaidullah Tooro 告訴媒體專線,“塔利班驅逐了所有官員並控制了警察總部和其他部門。 “混亂已經蔓延到 [Sar-e Pol] 市,任何方向都看不到喀布爾政府的官方或控制權。與此同時,塔利班特種部隊正在該市巡邏,”Tooro 說。 星期六,塔利班攻占了朱茲詹省首府謝伯甘的戰略要地,星期五,伊斯蘭主義者控制了尼姆魯茲省首府扎蘭吉。 週五,英國外交部表示,“建議所有在阿富汗的英國國民現在通過商業方式離開。” 週六,美國駐喀布爾大使館發布安全警報,敦促美國公民立即使用可用的商業航班離開阿富汗,不要計劃依賴美國政府的航班。 週日,美國大使館在一條推文中表示,“拜登總統認為阿富汗政府和安全部隊擁有可以取勝的訓練、裝備和人數,現在是‘領導層和意志’面對塔利班的時刻。侵略。” 華盛頓威爾遜中心南亞副主任兼高級助理、阿富汗問題領先專家邁克爾·庫格曼告訴媒體,“拜登是根據對美國面臨的恐怖威脅的評估做出的撤軍決定,而不是根據塔利班的實力。 “有兩個選擇:第一個是拜登政府將與當前的阿富汗政策保持一致,但我不排除第二個選項,即在人道主義難民援助中最好地利用美國資源。現在這個飽受戰爭蹂躪的國家非常需要它,”庫格曼補充道。 “阿富汗人正在以驚人的規模流離失所,接壤國家發誓要把他們拒之門外。許多人將被迫逃往更遠的地方。這是一場全球人道主義危機,而不僅僅是地區性危機,”他說。 “如果美國在 8 月 31 日停止反塔利班行動,那將發出令人困惑的信息,並可能對阿富汗安全部隊造成士氣低落的影響,但如果繼續下去,美國將繼續其戰爭,即使是在撤軍後,”他指出。 . “美國空軍最近幾天再次發動空襲,可以為阿富汗安全部隊帶來急需的援助,但這也增加了更多平民傷亡的風險,”庫格曼繼續說道。“此外,這帶來了一個政策難題,美國正式計劃在不到一個月的時間內退出。” Adeeb Z. Safvi 是一名駐卡拉奇的國防分析師,也是一名退休的巴基斯坦海軍上尉,他告訴媒體專線,“美國 [2020 年 2 月] 與阿富汗塔利班簽署了多哈和平協議。從那時起,美國決策者繼續將他們視為叛亂分子。這是否意味著世界超級大國與恐怖組織簽署了協議?難道它實際上不承認他們自稱為‘阿富汗伊斯蘭酋長國’的立場嗎?” 當塔利班於 1996 年 9 月開始對阿富汗進行治理時,即在喀布爾淪陷後,它建立了被稱為阿富汗伊斯蘭酋長國的運動,在其鼎盛時期控制了該國約 90% 的地區。 Safvi 繼續說道,“事實上,從協議的內容來看,它是接受塔利班作為法人實體和他們家園的所有者的存在。” “塔利班部隊現在控制了阿富汗 85% 的土地。儘管該國發生了最致命的衝突,但我們沒有看到大量人口湧入鄰國,”他說。 “美國違反多哈協議,繼續對塔利班進行空襲。與此同時,未經證實的報導稱,[總統阿什拉夫]加尼領導的喀布爾政權正在考慮實施戒嚴,”薩夫維說。 駐喀布爾的政治分析家阿尼斯·烏爾·拉赫曼 (Anis Ur Rehman) 告訴媒體專線,“阿富汗當前破壞性局勢的主要原因是美軍迅速撤出。 “阿富汗政府根本沒有準備好應對這種情況,”他指出。 “出乎意料的是,外國軍隊在爭奪中撤離了包括巴格拉姆空軍基地在內的據點,這造成了負面影響,並在一定程度上降低了 [阿富汗安全部隊] 的士氣,”拉赫曼繼續說道。因此,“阿富汗總統阿什拉夫·加尼(Ashraf Ghani)最近要求華盛頓應對該國當前不斷惡化的局勢負責。 “儘管塔利班已將戰爭蔓延到全國,但他們無法長期保持對這些地區的控制,”他聲稱。 “塔利班進入城市,奪取武器和車輛,然後離開該地區以尋求另一場胜利。我們最近幾天觀察到了這種情況,”雷曼說。 相比之下,華盛頓大西洋理事會南亞中心的非常駐高級研究員卡邁勒阿拉姆在阿富汗北部某處告訴媒體專線,“阿富汗目前不斷惡化的局勢與阿什拉夫加尼的失敗有很大關係。領導的政權,因為它在美國政策的整體失敗中所做的。 “中尉。唐納德特朗普的前國家安全顧問人力資源麥克馬斯特將軍撰寫了他的博士學位,內容是美國高級將領未能報告越南戰爭的真相,“阿拉姆說。“具有奇怪的諷刺意味的是,他是犯下同樣罪行的將軍集團的一員(關於阿富汗戰爭)。 “年復一年,每個美國將軍[反過來]歪曲事實,[說]美國可以贏得戰爭。除了斯坦利麥克里斯特爾將軍和邁克弗林中將之外,很少有美國高級軍官穿著制服時說實話,“他說。 而普通阿富汗人卻在受苦。” “阿富汗軍隊的崩潰也證明了'我們訓練了一支偉大的軍隊'的謊言,”阿拉姆說。“真正的失敗是當前負責的阿富汗領導人的謊言和欺騙,以及美國將軍們 20 年來的妄想。 “然而,對塔利班和當前政治精英腐敗的抵抗已經開始,所以隧道盡頭有一些曙光。然而,塔利班和加尼人彼此繁榮,而沉默的大多數阿富汗人則死亡和受苦,”阿拉姆說。 總部位於伊斯蘭堡的國際關係專家阿齊姆·哈立德·庫雷希 (Azeem Khalid Qureshi) 告訴媒體專線,“美國不負責任地從阿富汗撤軍,沒有創造戰略穩定的國內環境,造成了真空,該國的權力失衡為持續進行內戰。 “撤軍的批評者警告說,塔利班可能會接管整個國家,”庫雷希補充道。 “塔利班的不同派別正在填補北約/安援部隊[國際安全援助部隊]部隊留下的權力空缺,脆弱的阿富汗當局無法控制這個飽受戰爭蹂躪的國家的廣闊領土,”他說。 庫雷希說:“上帝保佑,如果持續的衝突拖延下去,除非政治討論可以恢復,否則該國可能會陷入又一個十年的內戰。” Taliban captures 6 provincial capitals amid heavy fighting US, UK urge all nationals to leave Afghanistan immediately as Islamists control 85% of the country. By ARSHAD MEHMOOD / THE MEDIA LINE AUGUST 10, 2021 00:15 Former Mujahideen hold weapons to support Afghan forces in their fight against Taliban, on the outskirts of Herat province, Afghanistan July 10, 2021. (photo credit: JALIL AHMAD/REUTERS) Advertisement [Islamabad] The Afghan Taliban’s gains continue on a fast track as the radical Sunni movement captured a sixth provincial capital on Monday. Insurgents entered Samangan on Monday morning without a fight after community elders pleaded with officials to spare the city from more violence following weeks of clashes on the outskirts, said Sefatullah Samangani, deputy governor of Samangan province. “The governor accepted and withdrew all the forces from the city,” Samangani added, saying the Taliban were now in “full control.” A Taliban spokesman confirmed the city had been taken. On Sunday evening, after expelling government forces, the Taliban entered Taloqan, the capital of Takhar province, and hoisted its flag over the main square of the country’s seventh-largest city. In the last three days, the Taliban has also taken control of provincial capitals Zaranj, Sheberghan, Kunduz and Sar-e Pol. Afghanistan has 34 provinces. For more stories from The Media Line go to themedialine.org In a massive blow to the Kabul administration, the Taliban earlier on Sunday morning captured Kunduz, a strategic city considered a gateway to the northern provinces. The capture of Kunduz, the country’s sixth-largest city, is the biggest gain so far for the Taliban. Kunduz is connected by highways to Kabul, Mazar-i-Sharif (the country’s fourth-largest city) and Badakhshan province, and to Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan. Meanwhile, multiple rockets were fired at Kandahar International Airport on Saturday and Sunday. According to local media, “the attack [on Sunday] caused no casualties, but a passenger airplane that was landing at the airport was redirected to Kabul.” It is the fifth time in three weeks that the airport has come under rocket fire. Fighting between the Taliban and Afghan security forces continues in Kandahar, Herat and Lashkar Gah. As the Taliban attacks swell, the security forces have responded with strikes assisted by the US Air Force. Fawad Aman, spokesman for the Afghan Defense Ministry, said on Saturday that “US B-52 bombers have launched airstrikes on the Taliban in the Jawzjan area and inflicted heavy damages on them.” The fierce fighting and aerial bombardments have raised growing concerns about civilian casualties. Zabiullah Mujahid, the Taliban’s chief spokesperson, told The Media Line that “after the shameless defeat, the warplanes are deliberately bombing civilians and causing heavy collateral damage. The Kabul administration is committing war crimes. “Kabul puppet regime forces are fleeing and leaving masses of weapons, ammunition and military vehicles behind them,” Mujahid said. Obaidullah Tooro, a member of the Sar-e Pol provincial council, told The Media Line the “Taliban has expelled all the officials and taken control of police headquarters and other departments. “Chaos has spread throughout [Sar-e Pol] city and no official or control of the Kabul administration is seen in any direction. Meanwhile, Taliban special forces are patrolling in the city,” Tooro said. On Saturday, the Taliban captured the strategic city of Sheberghan, the capital of Jowzjan province, and on Friday, the Islamists took control of Zaranj, the capital of Nimruz province. On Friday, the British Foreign Office said, “All British nationals in Afghanistan are advised to leave now by commercial means.” On Saturday, the American Embassy in Kabul issued a security alert urging US citizens to leave Afghanistan immediately using available commercial flight options, and not plan to rely on US government flights. On Sunday, the US Embassy said in a tweet that “President Biden feels that the Afghan government & the security forces have the training, equipment & numbers to prevail, & now is the moment for the ‘leadership & the will’ to face the Taliban’s aggression.” Michael Kugelman, deputy director and senior associate for South Asia at the Wilson Center in Washington and a leading expert on Afghanistan, told The Media Line, “Biden made his withdrawal decision based on an assessment of the terror threats to the US, not on the Taliban’s strength. “There are two options: No. 1 is that the Biden administration would be consistent with current Afghan policy, but I wouldn’t rule out option No. 2, which is about the best use of US resources in humanitarian-refugee aid, which is now much needed in the war-torn country,” Kugelman added. “Afghans are being displaced on an alarming scale, and bordering states vow to turn them away. Many will be forced to flee further afield. This is a global humanitarian crisis, not just a regional one,” he said. “If the US ceases anti-Taliban operations on August 31, that would send confusing messages and could have a demoralizing impact on the Afghan security forces, but if it continues, the US is continuing its war, even post-withdrawal,” he noted. “The US Air Force’s renewed airstrikes in recent days can bring much-needed assistance to the Afghan security forces, but this also increases the risk of more civilian casualties,” Kugelman continued. “Additionally, this presents a policy conundrum with the US withdrawal officially scheduled to conclude in less than a month.” Adeeb Z. Safvi, a Karachi-based defense analyst and a retired Pakistan Navy captain, told The Media Line, “The US signed the Doha peace accord with the Afghan Taliban [in February 2020]. Since then the US decision-makers continue to address them as insurgents. Does that mean the world’s superpower signed an agreement with a terrorist outfit? Does it not de facto recognize their stance of calling themselves ‘the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan?’” When the Taliban began its governance of Afghanistan in September 1996, after the fall of Kabul, it established what the movement called the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, which at its peak controlled approximately 90% of the country. Safvi continued that “in fact, looking at the contents of the agreement, it is acceptance of the Taliban’s existence as a legal entity and owners of their homeland.” “Taliban forces are now in control of 85% of Afghanistan’s landmass. Despite the deadliest of clashes in the country, we do not see a mass exodus of people into neighboring countries,” he said. “The US in violation of the Doha accord is continuing with airstrikes against the Taliban. Meanwhile, unconfirmed reports say that the [President Ashraf] Ghani-led Kabul regime is considering the imposition of martial law,” Safvi said. Anis Ur Rehman, a Kabul-based political analyst, told The Media Line, “The main reason for the current devastating situation in Afghanistan is the rapid withdrawal of US forces. “The Afghan government was not at all prepared to tackle such a situation,” he noted. “Unexpectedly, foreign forces evacuated their strongholds, including Bagram Air Base, in a scramble, which left a negative impact and sent [Afghan security forces’] morale down to some extent,” Rehman continued. As a consequence, “Afghan President Ashraf Ghani recently held Washington responsible for the current deteriorating situation in the country. “Although the Taliban has spread the war across the country, they cannot maintain control over these areas for long,” he claimed. “The Taliban enters the cities, seizes weapons, vehicles, and leaves the area in pursuit of another win. We have observed such a situation in recent days,” Rehman said. In contrast, Kamal Alam, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center in Washington, told The Media Line from somewhere in northern Afghanistan that “the current deteriorating situation in Afghanistan has as much to do with the failure of the Ashraf Ghani-led regime as it does with an overall failure of US policy. “Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, Donald Trump’s former national security adviser, wrote his Ph.D., on the failure of senior US generals to report the truth about the war in Vietnam,” Alam said. “In a strange irony, he was part of the clique of generals who were guilty of the same [regarding the war in Afghanistan]. “Year after year, each US general [in turn] distorted the truth, [saying] that America could win the war. Barring Gen. Stanley McChrystal and Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn, very few senior US officers told the truth whilst in uniform,” he said. “What was the truth? That the US forces were there to save the lives and the corruption of an incompetent Afghan government,” he carried on. “Today each Afghan leader has millions stashed in Dubai, London or Istanbul along with foreign passports whilst the ordinary Afghan suffers.” “The collapse of the Afghan army is also testimony to the lies of ‘We trained a great army,’” Alam said. “The real failure is the lies and deceit of the Afghan leadership currently in charge along with the 20 years of deluded visions of US generals. “However, the resistance against both the Taliban and the corruption of the current political elite has started, so there is some light at the end of the tunnel. However the Taliban and Ghani thrive off each other whilst the silent majority of Afghans die and suffer,” Alam said. Azeem Khalid Qureshi, an Islamabad-based international relations expert, told The Media Line that “the US’s irresponsible withdrawal, without creating a strategically stable domestic environment, from Afghanistan, has created a vacuum and the power imbalance in the country paved a way for ongoing civil war. “Critics of the withdrawal had warned that the Taliban could take over the entire country,” Qureshi added. “Different factions of the Taliban are filling the power void left by the NATO/ISAF [International Security Assistance Force] forces, and the fragile Afghan authorities are unable to control the war-torn country’s vast territories,” he said. “If, God forbid, the ongoing conflict drags out, the country could be plunged into another decade of civil war, unless political discussions can resume,” Qureshi said. 黎巴嫩在真主黨的魔掌中 - 意見 鑑於新政府的可能組成,黎巴嫩似乎沒有機會在短期內擺脫真主黨的統治,從而擺脫伊朗的統治。 作者:內維爾·特勒 2021 年 8 月 9 日 23:25 上週,黎巴嫩總統米歇爾·奧恩在貝魯特港口爆炸週年紀念日前夕向媒體發表講話。 (照片來源:DALATI NOHRA / 路透社) 廣告 自 2020 年 8 月 4 日的大規模爆炸炸毀貝魯特的港口以及黎巴嫩的行政機器以來,黎巴嫩一直沒有政府。爆炸發生後,黎巴嫩總統米歇爾·奧恩承諾進行迅速和透明的調查。一年後,沒有人被追究責任,而調查本身卻一直受到阻撓、逃避和拖延。 Fadi Sawan 法官被任命進行調查。12 月 10 日,他正式指控看守總理哈桑·迪亞布和三名前部長在爆炸中疏忽大意。但是,曾得到真主黨議會集團支持的迪亞布拒絕出庭接受訊問。其他兩位前部長也是如此。他們得到了看守內政部長穆罕默德·法赫米的支持,總部位於阿布扎比的《國民報》將其描述為“堅定地支持真主黨”。法赫米公開宣稱,即使司法機關發出逮捕令,他也不會要求安全部隊拘留他們。 真主黨的堅定支持者奧恩當時沒有發表評論,但在 2 月份,薩萬被從調查中刪除。 接替他的是 Tarek Bitar 法官,眾所周知,他沒有強烈的政治派別。7 月 9 日,比塔爾申請詢問強大的黎巴嫩安全總局局長阿巴斯·易卜拉欣少將。法米拒絕了這一要求。 看守政府顯然是在故意阻撓調查,必須懷疑主要人物參與了導致爆炸的情況並受到了保護。事實上,在 8 月 3 日發布的一份報告中,人權觀察宣稱:“港口管理結構的設計本身就是為了在政治精英之間分享權力。它最大限度地提高了不透明度,並允許腐敗和管理不善滋生。” 有待回答的問題包括,誰授權於 2013 年 11 月扣留懸掛摩爾多瓦國旗的貨船 Rhosus;10 月 23 日至 24 日,在其授權下裝載了 2,754 噸硝酸銨——沒有任何一方隨後聲稱——卸載並儲存在不安全的條件下;根據聯邦調查局的一份報告,那批貨物中約有 2,200 噸,後來發生了什麼——儘管爆炸規模巨大,但僅涉及 550 噸左右。 國際特赦組織從一開始就批評黎巴嫩的司法程序。“迄今為止採取的每一步、措施或聲明,”它在 9 月宣布,“特別是該國最高級別的官員,都明確表示當局無意履行其職責,以進行有效、透明的行動。和公正的調查……國際實況調查機制是保障受害者獲得真相、正義和補救權利的唯一途徑。” 人權觀察同意。考慮到“國中之國”真主黨施加的不當影響,以及統治圈內普遍存在的貪污和貪污,人權觀察認為黎巴嫩的國內調查無法令人信服地伸張正義,並呼籲國際、獨立探測。 10 月,薩阿德·哈里裡被黎巴嫩議會任命為候任總理,負責組建新政府。在長達九個月的時間裡,他與奧恩發生了爭執,奧恩想用支持真主黨的部長來組建任何新政府。哈里裡斷然拒絕讓步;他想組建一個技術官僚內閣,致力於實施世界銀行、國際貨幣基金組織和美國和法國等捐助國長期以來所要求的改革。最終,7 月 15 日,哈里裡辭職。 不久之後,黎巴嫩最富有的人之一納吉布·米卡蒂( Najib Mikati)出現了一位折衷的候任總理候選人。. 曾兩次擔任總理的米卡蒂發現自己得到了黎巴嫩大多數政黨的支持,包括真主黨和另一個主要的什葉派政黨阿邁勒,以及包括哈里裡在內的前遜尼派總理。儘管如此,批評者稱米卡蒂為“真主黨傀儡”,同時反對再次從他們所謂的“腐敗政治精英”中選出總理。國際媒體援引了一名法官在 2019 年對 Mikati 提起的腐敗指控,該案件涉及與補貼住房貸款有關的非法收益指控——他稱這些指控具有政治動機。該案尚未開庭審理。7月28日,米卡蒂宣布他已向總統提交了他的政府職位候選人名單。“奧恩總統批准了其中的大部分,”他宣布,“他發表了一些可以接受的評論。上帝保佑……我們很快就能組建政府。” 鑑於 Hariri-Aoun 的僵局,未來 Mikati 內閣的總體形狀幾乎不需要猜測。 必須繼續懷疑它是否有能力,更不用說意願,進行對恢復黎巴嫩經濟健康至關重要的根本和分支改革。世界銀行對黎巴嫩政治精英的批評毫不留情,真主黨在黎巴嫩的政治精英中佔有重要地位。它指責他們故意未能解決該國的許多問題,包括經濟和金融危機、新冠病毒大流行和貝魯特港口爆炸。在最近的一份報告中,它認為不作為是由於持續的政治共識捍衛“一個破產的經濟體系,該體係長期受益於少數人”。 考慮到新政府的可能組成,黎巴嫩似乎沒有機會在短期內擺脫真主黨在國家政治生活中取得的主導地位以及伊朗能夠通過其對黎巴嫩事務施加的惡毒影響。木偶。例如,真主黨直接聲稱對 8 月 6 日向以色列發射的一連串火箭負責——這一行動恰逢伊朗侵略霍爾木茲灣和伊朗新任強硬總統易卜拉欣·賴西上台。難怪一些評論家,如英國政策研究所查塔姆研究所,開始將黎巴嫩視為真主黨控制的國家。 Lebanon is in Hezbollah's clutches - opinion Given the likely composition of the new administration, there seems no chance of Lebanon freeing itself any time soon from the dominance of Hezbollah and, in consequence, Iran. By NEVILLE TELLER AUGUST 9, 2021 23:25 LEBANESE PRESIDENT Michel Aoun addresses the media on the eve of the anniversary of Beirut port explosion last week. (photo credit: DALATI NOHRA / REUTERS) Advertisement Lebanon has been without a government since the massive explosion of August 4, 2020, blew Beirut’s port apart and, with it, Lebanon’s administrative machine. In the aftermath of the blast, Lebanese President Michel Aoun promised a swift and transparent investigation. A year later no one has been held responsible, while the inquiry itself has been subject to continuous obstruction, evasion, and delay. Judge Fadi Sawan was appointed to conduct the investigation. On December 10 he formally charged caretaker prime minister Hassan Diab and three former ministers with negligence in connection with the blast. But Diab, who had been supported by the Hezbollah parliamentary bloc in his bid to become the designated prime minister, refused to appear for questioning. So did two of the other former ministers. They were supported by the caretaker interior minister, Mohammed Fahmi, described by the Abu Dhabi-based The National as “staunchly pro-Hezbollah.” Fahmi declared publicly that even if the judiciary issued arrest warrants, he would not ask the security forces to detain them. Aoun, a strong supporter of Hezbollah – which reciprocates the favor – made no comment at the time, but in February, Sawan was removed from the inquiry. He was replaced by Judge Tarek Bitar, who is known to have no strong political affiliations. On July 9, Bitar applied to question Major-General Abbas Ibrahim, head of the powerful Lebanese General Security Directorate. Fahmi refused the request. It seems clear that the caretaker government is deliberately thwarting the investigation, and the suspicion must arise that leading figures were involved in the circumstances leading to the explosion and are being shielded. Indeed, in a report issued on August 3, Human Rights Watch declares: “The very design of the port’s management structure was developed to share power between political elites. It maximized opacity, and allowed corruption and mismanagement to flourish.” Questions waiting to be answered include who authorized the detention of the Moldovan-flagged cargo ship, the Rhosus, in November 2013; under whose authority was its load of 2,754 tons of ammonium nitrate – which no party has subsequently claimed – off-loaded and stored in unsafe conditions on October 23 and 24; and what has since happened to some 2,200 tons of that shipment – according to a report by the FBI – the blast, massive as it was, involved only around 550 tons. Amnesty International criticized Lebanon’s judicial process from the start. “Every step, measure or statement taken thus far,” it declared in September, “particularly by the highest-ranking officials in the country, have made it clear that the authorities have no intention whatsoever of fulfilling their responsibilities of conducting an effective, transparent and impartial investigation… An international fact-finding mechanism is the only way to guarantee the rights of victims to truth, justice and remedy.” HRW concurred. Taking into account the undue influence exercised by Hezbollah, the “state within a state”, as well as the widespread graft and venality within ruling circles, HRW believes that Lebanon‘s domestic investigation is incapable of credibly delivering justice, and has called for an international, independent probe. It believes that the blast – which killed more than 200 people, wounded thousands and inflicted billions of dollars in damage – was the starkest example yet of the chronic corruption and mismanagement that have left the Lebanese with a dysfunctional state and a collapsing economy. In October, Saad Hariri was named by the Lebanese parliament as prime minister-designate and charged with forming a new government. For nine long months he was at loggerheads with Aoun, who wanted to pack any new government with Hezbollah-supporting ministers. Hariri flatly refused to give way; he wanted to assemble a technocrat cabinet dedicated to enacting the reforms long demanded by the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and donor countries, such as the US and France. Finally, on July 15, Hariri resigned. Shortly afterwards a compromise candidate as prime minister-designate emerged in the shape of one of the richest men in Lebanon, Najib Mikati. Mikati, who has served twice before as prime minister, found himself endorsed by most of Lebanon’s political parties, including Hezbollah and the other major Shi’ite party, Amal, and also by former Sunni prime ministers, including Hariri. Nevertheless, critics have called Mikati “a Hezbollah puppet,” while objecting to once again having a prime minister drawn from what they term the “corrupt political elite.” International media have cited corruption charges brought against Mikati by a judge in 2019 in a case involving accusations of illicit gains related to subsidized housing loans – charges that he terms politically motivated. The case has not yet come to trial. On July 28, Mikati announced that he had submitted to the president his list of candidates for government posts. “President Aoun approved most of them,” he announced, “and he made some remarks which are acceptable. God willing… we will be able to form a government soon.” In light of the Hariri-Aoun standoff, few guesses are needed as to the general shape of a future Mikati cabinet. DOUBTS MUST persist as to whether it will have the ability, let alone the will, to undertake the root and branch reforms essential to restoring Lebanon‘s economic health. The World Bank pulls no punches in its criticism of Lebanon’s political elite, in which Hezbollah features so strongly. It accuses them of deliberately failing to tackle the country’s many problems, which include the economic and financial crisis, the COVID pandemic and the Beirut port explosion. In a recent report it identifies the inaction as due to a continuing political consensus that defends “a bankrupt economic system, which benefited a few for so long.” Given the likely composition of the new administration, there seems no chance of Lebanon freeing itself any time soon from the dominance that Hezbollah has managed to acquire in the nation’s political life and the consequent malign influence on Lebanese affairs that Iran is able to exercise through its puppet. For example, Hezbollah directly claimed responsibility for a barrage of rockets fired on August 6 toward Israel – an action coinciding with Iranian aggression off the Gulf of Hormuz and the accession of Iran’s new hardline president, Ebrahim Raisi. It is no wonder that some commentators, like the UK’s policy institute Chatham House, are coming to regard Lebanon as a state controlled by Hezbollah. The writer is Middle East correspondent for Eurasia Review. His latest book is Trump and the Holy Land: 2016-2020. Follow him at www.a-mid-east-journal.blogspot.com. 黎巴嫩馬龍派族長呼籲軍隊對抗真主黨 “我們呼籲黎巴嫩軍隊阻止導彈發射,不是為了以色列,而是為了黎巴嫩。” 通過TZVI JOFFRE 2021 年 8 月 9 日 17:20 黎巴嫩馬龍派宗主教 Bechara Boutros Al-Rai 於 2017 年 11 月 13 日訪問黎巴嫩駐沙特阿拉伯利雅得大使館。 (圖片來源:路透社) 廣告 在以色列和真主黨最近發生衝突後,黎巴嫩馬龍派教宗主教 Bechara Boutros al-Rahi 週日呼籲黎巴嫩軍隊控制該國南部,真主黨的據點,並嚴格執行聯合國安理會第 1701 號決議。 “我們呼籲與國際部隊一起負責南方安全的黎巴嫩軍隊控制整個南方領土,嚴格執行第 1701 號決議,防止從黎巴嫩領土發射導彈,而不是據黎巴嫩國家通訊社(NNA)報導,為了以色列的安全,而是為了黎巴嫩的安全,”拉希在周日彌撒中說。 馬龍派宗主教強調,他不能“以法律面前人人平等的原則,接受一個政黨在合法性決定和國家決定權交給三分之二政府成員之外決定和平與戰爭”。 週五,從黎巴嫩南部向以色列北部發射了 19 枚火箭,鐵穹攔截了 10 枚火箭和 6 枚落在黎巴嫩邊境沿線 Har Dov 附近空曠地區的火箭。其他人落入黎巴嫩境內。沒有人員傷亡。 這是近幾個月來的第六次此類襲擊,也是真主黨承認對此事負責的第一次。 除了反對真主黨行動的立場外,拉希還譴責了他所謂的“以色列對黎巴嫩南部的周期性侵犯,違反安理會第 1701 號決議,以及居民村莊及其周邊地區邊境地區的激烈緊張局勢”,據報導。到 NNA。 這位族長強調說,“黎巴嫩確實沒有與以色列簽署和平協議,但黎巴嫩也沒有決定與以色列開戰,並正式致力於 1949 年的停戰”,並補充說:“我們不想捲入黎巴嫩的軍事行動激起了以色列的毀滅性反應。” 拉希還聲稱,在上周紀念爆炸一周年之際,這些衝突旨在“轉移人們對貝魯特港爆炸烈士和受害者彌撒的神聖和光彩的注意力” 。 馬龍派族長將繼續攻擊該國的領導人。“我們問官員和政客:你如何讓人民相信你有資格帶領他們走向救贖,而你每天都讓他們陷入新的危機?如果你不關心專門為黎巴嫩人提供救濟和準備拯救黎巴嫩的國際會議,你將如何讓世界相信你值得幫助?你將如何說服自己,你已經達到了責任和希望的水平?面對苦難中的人們,您是否有任何人性?” 他反問。 “我們希望結束軍事邏輯和戰爭,採用和平邏輯以及黎巴嫩和所有黎巴嫩人的利益,”這位族長說,據 NNA 稱。 黎巴嫩卡塔布黨領袖、前國會議員薩米杰馬耶勒週一表示支持族長,稱該黨“確信”有許多黎巴嫩公民同意族長和卡塔布黨關於主權和拆除武器的意見。在軍隊之外。 真主黨的支持者對這位族長在社交媒體上的評論表示憤怒,他們使用了“偏見贊助人”和“投降贊助人”的標籤。真主黨附屬記者阿里·舒伊佈在一條推文中對這位族長發表講話,寫道:“就一次,要求黎巴嫩軍隊阻止以色列的襲擊,而不是要求它阻止發射火箭!!” 黎巴嫩議員易卜拉欣·卡南是自由愛國運動的成員,與真主黨結盟的基督教政黨,對社交媒體對拉希言論的回應做出回應,稱“侮辱[拉希]代表的東西和他所代表的人,以任何標準都被拒絕,”根據 NNA。 Kanaan 呼籲真主黨和 Rahi 之間進行對話,並“討論他的關切,這是國家關切,由黎巴嫩廣大人民表達,具有不同的組成部分和膚色,不讓黎巴嫩成為交換信息的開放場所,加熱邊界並開啟損害國家及其經濟的戰鬥,特別是因為黎巴嫩人正在經歷其 100 年曆史上最困難的階段。” 國會議員強調,必須以尊重的態度討論族長的立場,遠離任何虐待或憤怒。 這不是拉希第一次發表聲明反對真主黨對黎巴嫩南部的控制以及作為該國準軍事組織的存在。 去年8 月,貝魯特港爆炸後,馬龍派族長呼籲國家控制該國的武器,並將戰爭與和平的決定限制在國家手中。據 NNA 稱,拉希呼籲各方不要讓黎巴嫩捲入任何衝突,並首先考慮黎巴嫩的利益。 這位族長還多次呼籲黎巴嫩注重中立,不要捲入與該國無關的國際和地區戰爭。 2014年,拉希在教皇方濟各訪問期間訪問了以色列。黎巴嫩真主黨和其他團體當時對這一決定表示憤慨。 Lebanon's Maronite patriarch calls on army to confront Hezbollah "We call upon the Lebanese army to prevent the launching of missiles, not for the sake of Israel, but for the sake of Lebanon." By TZVI JOFFRE AUGUST 9, 2021 17:20 Lebanese Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rai visits the Lebanese embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, November 13, 2017. (photo credit: REUTERS) Advertisement Lebanon’s Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rahi called on Sunday for the Lebanese army to take control of the southern part of the country, Hezbollah’s stronghold, and strictly implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701, after recent clashes between Israel and Hezbollah. “We call upon the Lebanese army, which is responsible with the international forces for the security of the South, to take control of the entire lands of the South, to strictly implement Resolution 1701 and to prevent the launching of missiles from Lebanese territory, not for the sake of Israel’s safety, but rather for the safety of Lebanon,” said Rahi during Sunday Mass, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA). The Maronite patriarch stressed that he could not “accept, by virtue of equality before the law, that a party decides peace and war outside the decision of legality and the national decision entrusted to two-thirds of the members of the government.” On Friday, 19 rockets were fired from southern Lebanon into northern Israel, with the Iron Dome intercepting 10 rockets and six rockets falling in open areas near Har Dov, along the Lebanese border. The others fell inside Lebanon. There were no injuries or casualties. It was the sixth such attack in recent months and the first in which Hezbollah admitted responsibility. Alongside the stance against Hezbollah’s actions, Rahi condemned what he called “periodic Israeli violations against southern Lebanon, and the violation of Security Council Resolution No. 1701, as well as the heated tension in the border areas of residential villages and their surroundings,” according to NNA. The patriarch stressed that “it is true that Lebanon has not signed peace with Israel, but it is also true that Lebanon has not decided war with it, and is officially committed to the 1949 truce,” adding that “we do not want to involve Lebanon in military operations that provoke devastating Israeli reactions.” Rahi also claimed that the clashes were meant to “divert attention from the sanctity and glow of the Mass of the martyrs and victims of” the Beirut Port explosion when the one-year anniversary of the blast was marked last week. The Maronite patriarch would go on to attack the country’s leaders. “We ask officials and politicians: How will you convince the people that you are qualified to lead them towards salvation, and every day you plunge them into a new crisis? How will you convince the world that you are worthy of help while you do not care about the international conferences dedicated to the relief of the Lebanese and which are ready to save Lebanon? How will you convince yourselves that you were up to the level of responsibility and hopes? Is there any humanity in you to feel with people in their misery?” he asked rhetorically. “We want to end the military logic and war and adopt the logic of peace and the interest of Lebanon and all the Lebanese,” stated the patriarch, according to NNA. The head of Lebanon’s Kataeb Party and former MP, Samy Gemayel, expressed support for the patriarch on Monday, saying that the party is “convinced” that there are many Lebanese citizens who agree with the patriarch and the Kataeb Party concerning sovereignty and removal of arms outside the military. Hezbollah supporters expressed outrage at the patriarch’s comments on social media, using the hashtags “Patron of bias” and “patron of surrender.” Hezbollah-affiliated reporter Ali Shoeib addressed the patriarch in a tweet, writing: “Just for once, ask the Lebanese army to prevent the Israeli attacks instead of asking it to prevent the firing of rockets!!” Lebanese MP Ibrahim Kanaan, a member of the Free Patriotic Movement, a Christian party allied with Hezbollah, responded to the social media responses to Rahi’s statements, saying that “insulting what [Rahi] represents and who he represents is rejected by all standards,” according to NNA. Kanaan called for dialogue between Hezbollah and Rahi and a “discussion of his concerns, which are national concerns, expressed by a wide segment of the Lebanese people, with its various components and colors, in terms of not keeping Lebanon an open arena for exchanging messages, heating the borders and opening battles that harm the country and its economy, especially since the Lebanese are going through the most difficult stage in their 100 year history.” The MP stressed that the patriarch’s positions must be discussed with respect, far from any abuse or anger. This isn’t the first time that Rahi has issued statements against Hezbollah’s control of southern Lebanon and existence as a paramilitary organization in the country. In August of last year, after the Beirut Port blast, the Maronite patriarch called for the state to take control over weapons in the country and to confine decisions of war and peace to the state. Rahi called on all parties not to involve Lebanon in any conflict and to take Lebanon’s interests into consideration first, according to NNA. The patriarch has also repeatedly called for Lebanon to focus on neutrality and not to enter international and regional wars which he said have nothing to do with the country. In 2014, Rahi visited Israel during a visit by Pope Francis. Hezbollah and other groups in Lebanon expressed outrage at the decision at the time. 伊朗針對以色列、英國和美國的先發製人原則——分析 加熱以色列北部,以表明如果對油輪襲擊施加壓力,它可以打擊任何它想要的地方。 作者:SETH J. FRANZMAN 2021 年 8 月 9 日 21:11 伊朗革命衛隊 (IRGC) 的一艘船於 2019 年 8 月 22 日在伊朗阿巴斯港附近的未公開地點航行。 (照片來源:NAZANIN TABATABAEE/WANA VIA REUTERS) 廣告 伊朗正在製定一項新學說,旨在先發製人對其在阿曼海岸附近的一艘船隻的襲擊做出任何反應。 在過去的一周半里,在一艘名為 Mercer Street 的油輪於 7 月 29 日首次遭到襲擊之後,在其兩名船員於 7 月 30 日喪生之前,伊朗已被列為罪魁禍首。美國和英國指責伊朗,並進行了強硬的談話。然後,突然,上周向以色列發射了火箭。 這是伊朗的先發製人。加熱以色列北部,以表明如果對油輪襲擊施加壓力,它可以打擊任何它想要的地方。 在這裡聽聽伊朗的邏輯和敘述很重要。伊朗通過其代理人的媒體信息和演講,以及在其新總統易卜拉欣·賴西就職期間與重要的哈馬斯、真主黨和其他恐怖領導人的會晤中闡明了這一點。伊斯蘭革命衛隊負責人侯賽因·薩拉米和主要官員阿里·沙姆哈尼參加了各種會議,消息似乎是同時發布的。 消息是什麼?伊朗通過 Al-Alam TV 和 Press TV 表示,對阿曼海岸的襲擊是為了報復。它聲稱這是對以色列之前的襲擊進行報復。這意味著伊朗認為它已經扳平了比分。因此,來自美國、英國和以色列的強硬談話使伊朗緊張不安。它已警告英國和以色列。它可能通過其他渠道警告美國。倫敦的 Asharq Al-Awsat 報紙援引一位高級外交消息人士的話說,根據一份報告,美國似乎向以色列施壓,不要在下個月的另一輪伊朗核談判之前改變與真主黨的交戰規則。 這很重要,因為這意味著伊朗能夠讓哈馬斯和真主黨發揮作用,可能還有駐紮在伊拉克的部隊,以及駐紮在伊拉克的民兵和伊朗支持的也門胡塞武裝,作為區域協同努力的一部分。如果伊朗在海灣地區感到壓力,那麼它可能會襲擊其他地方。但這不僅僅是關於引人注目。在油輪襲擊之後,他們正在推動真主黨和哈馬斯以及其他前線行動者為以色列製造複雜性、威懾力和不可預測的結果。 據周一報導,法國總統埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍與伊朗總統賴西進行了交談。“伊斯蘭共和國非常重視在波斯灣和阿曼海地區提供安全和維持威懾,”賴西告訴法國人。這是什麼意思?我們在真主黨領袖哈桑納斯魯拉最近的講話中也聽到了這一點。8 月 7 日,他說真主黨對以色列的大砲和空襲做出了回應。“這是為了加強威懾的舊方程式,而不是像某些人所說的那樣創造新的方程式。” 但是,8 月 4 日星期三,真主黨允許其控制的地區用於向以色列發射火箭彈這一事實呢?從某種意義上說,真主黨已經開始了這一輪。但它也公開表示將繼續以火箭對火箭的方式對抗以色列。 8 月 1 日,以色列國防軍參謀長 Aviv Kohavi 結束了與他的英國同行、國防參謀長尼克卡特爵士的談話。“兩人討論了該地區最近發生的事件以及兩國面臨的共同挑戰,”一份聲明中寫道。在此之後的接下來的 48 小時內,伊朗似乎實施了先發製人原則。然後在 8 月 6 日星期五,真主黨向以色列無人居住的邊境地區發射了一系列火箭。 納斯魯拉第二天發表講話。這是清晰、協調的信息傳遞。伊朗一直在尋求威懾、不可預測,並使其前線部隊發揮作用,這些部隊是其在黎巴嫩、敘利亞和加沙的代理人、盟友和合作夥伴。這在某種意義上是一種新的先發製人學說。伊朗希望向以色列展示多種威脅和前線。 它還於 5 月在加沙沖突前夕公佈了這一消息。它威脅以色列,並在聖城日之前和之後的幾個小時內讓其代理人發表演講,所有這些都旨在挑戰以色列。然後哈馬斯在 10 天內發射了大約 4,000 枚火箭,伊朗公開支持這一點,其媒體慶祝它認為是試圖測試以色列。伊朗還在 5 月 18 日向以色列領空發射了一架無人機,可能是從敘利亞引導它。5 月 17 日,以色列國防軍錶示,它檢測到“從黎巴嫩發現了六次失敗的發射嘗試,但沒有進入以色列領土。” 5 月 19 日,隨著以色列-哈馬斯衝突逐漸平息,更多的火箭從黎巴嫩向以色列發射。 這表明伊朗的反應更為複雜,而且可能是未來更多反應的例證。伊朗想發揮這種先發製人的原則。它希望分散美國、英國和以色列對阿曼附近事件以及華盛頓和倫敦支持回應以及倫敦可能在某個地方做出回應的新報導的注意力。 Iran’s pre-emption doctrine against Israel, UK, US - analysis Heat up northern Israel, to show it can strike anywhere it wants if it is pressed about the tanker attack. By SETH J. FRANTZMAN AUGUST 9, 2021 21:11 A boat of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) sails, at undisclosed place off the coast of Bandar Abbas, Iran August 22, 2019. (photo credit: NAZANIN TABATABAEE/WANA VIA REUTERS) Advertisement Iran is putting in place a new doctrine designed to pre-empt any response to its attack on a ship off the coast of Oman. In the last week and a half, after a tanker named the Mercer Street was first attacked on July 29, before two of its crew were killed on July 30, Iran has been singled out as a culprit. The US and UK have accused Iran and there has been tough talk. Then, suddenly, rockets were fired at Israel last week. This was Iran’s pre-emption. Heat up northern Israel, to show it can strike anywhere it wants if it is pressed about the tanker attack. It’s important to listen to Iran’s logic and narrative here. Iran has laid that out through media messaging and speeches by its proxies, as well as in meetings with key Hamas, Hezbollah and other terror leaders during the inauguration of its new president Ebrahim Raisi. The IRGC head Hossein Salami and key official Ali Shamkhani attended various meetings and it appears the messaging was put out at the same time. Latest articles from Jpost Top Articles READ MORE COVID: half‑million get 3rd vaccine, serious patientsat 360 What was the message? Iran said via Al-Alam TV and Press TV that the strike off the coast of Oman was retaliation. It claimed it was retaliating for previous Israeli attacks. That means Iran felt it had evened the score. Tough talk from the US, UK and Israel thus put Iran on edge. It has warned the UK and Israel. It may have warned the US via other channels. It appears, according to a report that the US pressured Israel not to alter the rules of engagement against Hezbollah ahead of another round of Iran nuclear talks next month” the London-based Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper reported, citing a senior diplomatic source. This is important because it means Iran was able to put Hamas and Hezbollah in play, and possibly units based in Iraq, as well as Iraqi-based militias and the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, as part of a concerted regional effort. If Iran feels pressured in the Gulf, then it may strike elsewhere. But this is not just about striking. They are pushing Hezbollah and Hamas and other frontline actors to create complexity, deterrence and unpredictable results for Israel in the wake of the tanker attack. French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with Iran’s President Raisi, according to reports on Monday. "The Islamic Republic is very serious about providing security and maintaining deterrence in the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman Region," Raisi told the French. What does this mean? We heard that also in Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s recent speech. On August 7 he said that Hezbollah responded to Israeli artillery and airstrikes. “This was to reinforce the old equation of deterrence, and not create a new one as some have said.” But what about the fact that Hezbollah had enabled areas it controls to be used for rocket fire on Israel on Wednesday, August 4. Hezbollah had started this round, in a sense. But it also openly said it would continue it, rocket for rocket, against Israel. On August 1, IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kohavi concluded a conversation with his British counterpart, Chief of the Defence Staff Gen. Sir Nick Carter. “The two discussed recent events in the region and common challenges faced by both countries,” a statement read. It appears Iran put in place a pre-emption doctrine over the next 48 hours after that. Then on Friday the 6 of August, Hezbollah fired a salvo of rockets into an uninhabited border area of Israel. Nasrallah gave his speech the next day. This is clear, coordinated messaging. Iran has been seeking to deter, to be unpredictable and to put its frontline units, which are its proxies and allies and partners in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza, into play. This is a new pre-emption doctrine in a sense. Iran wants to present Israel with a multiplicity of threats and frontlines. It also unveiled this in May during the leadup to the Gaza conflict. It threatened Israel and had its proxies give speeches in hours before Quds Day and after, all directed at challenging Israel. Then Hamas launched some 4,000 rockets in 10 days and Iran openly supported this and its media celebrated what it thought was an attempt to test Israel. Iran also launched a drone into Israeli airspace on May 18, likely guiding it from Syria. On May 17, the IDF said it detected “six failed launches attempts were identified from Lebanon that did not cross into Israeli territory.” On May 19, more rockets were fired from Lebanon toward Israel as the Israel-Hamas conflict winded down. What this shows is a more complex Iranian response and likely an illustration of more to come. Iran wants to put in play this pre-emption doctrine. It wants to distract the US, UK and Israel from the incident off Oman and the emerging reports that Washington and London back a response and that London may respond somewhere.

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