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*第三季*【EP. 38】#302 經濟學人新聞評論【俄羅斯、保加利亞、華沙公約組織、北大西洋公約組織、冷戰過後的歐洲與歐盟整合、英國版新冠變異病毒、南非版新冠變異病毒、東南亞國協、夾縫中求生存、美中競合】

每日一經濟學人 LEON x The Economist
2021-01-02
23:03
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🔴Tuesday December 29th 2020 🔵2020年12月29日星期二 1️⃣Russia v. Bulgaria: from allies to enemies 俄羅斯 vs. 保加利亞:從盟友變敵人 Russia expelled a Bulgarian diplomat in a tit-for-tat exchange, after Bulgaria sent Russia’s military attaché home, saying he had been spying on the country since 2017. The two countries were once the closest of Warsaw Pact allies; Bulgaria is now a member of the EU and NATO. 俄羅斯以牙還牙驅逐了一名保加利亞的外交官,(因) 此前保加利亞將一名俄羅斯的武官遣返回國,並稱此人自 2017年以來一直在保加利亞執行間諜任務/活動。這兩個國家曾是華沙公約組織 (Warsaw Pact) 時期最親密的盟友。保加利亞現為歐盟 (EU) 與北約 (North Atlantic Treaty Organization,北大西洋公約組織) 的成員國。 2️⃣Covid-19 variant: one trouble follows another 新冠變異病毒:一波未平一波又起 Britain said that 41,385 new covid-19 cases had been confirmed, a record daily number. A rapidly spreading variant of the disease has increased infection rates in the country. Meanwhile, South Africa, which is fighting its own mutant version of covid-19, announced on Sunday that more than 1m cases have now been identified in the country. 英國表示 (單日) 確診了 41,385例新冠病毒的病例,這也創下了 (單日) 新高的記錄。一種源於新冠病毒且正被快速傳播的變異病毒增加了感染/確診率。與此同時,正在與該國變異型新冠病毒作戰的南非已於週日宣佈該國現已檢測出超過 100萬個病例。 3️⃣Between two superpowers: South-East Asia 兩個超級大國之間求生存:東南亞 No part of the world risks suffering more from the economic, strategic and military rivalry playing out between America and China in 2021 than the countries of South-East Asia. On one hand, they are wary of President Xi Jinping’s call for “Asian people to run the affairs of Asia”, which to them sounds like code for China running Asia. On the other hand, while members of the Association of South-East Asian Nations welcome America as the dominant military power in the region, they know conflict would be disastrous for them. Many of the region’s governments are hostile to democracy, and few aspire to it. Above all, China is too close and already too economically mighty to turn against. It is by far South-East Asia’s biggest trading partner and its second-biggest investor, behind Japan. ASEAN’s prosperity is bound to China. The approach, says Singapore’s former top diplomat, will be to “hedge, balance and bandwagon” between the two. 世界上沒有任何地方比東南亞國家受到更多因為 2021年美中之間的經濟、戰略和軍事競賽之損失。一方面,他們對習近平主席所發出的“亞洲人管亞洲事”的口號持謹慎態度,而在他們看來這更像是“中國管理亞洲”的暗號。另一方面,雖然東南亞國協 (ASEAN,Association of South-East Asian Nations) 的成員歡迎美國成為該區域的軍事主力,但他們知道美中衝突將對他們來說是災難性的。東南亞國家許多政府都對民主抱持著不友善的態度,且嚮往民主改革的當局亦少之。最重要的是,中國離他們太近了,而且中國的經濟實力已經強大到無法反抗。中國是迄今為止東南亞最大的貿易夥伴,也是僅次於日本的第二大投資國。東南亞國協的繁榮與中國息息相關,而曾為新加坡一高階外交官員表示東南亞的做法將是在 (美中) 兩者之間“對沖、平衡和順應潮流”。

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