國際時事跟讀VIP Ep.K972: 中國 410 億美元的刺激消費賭注 China's $41B Spending Gamble

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國際時事跟讀VIP Ep.K972: China's $41B Spending Gamble

Highlights 主題摘要：

• China's government is spending $41 billion on discounts for products like appliances and cars to make people buy more things instead of saving money.
• Chinese consumers don't spend enough because they worry about their future and need to save for expensive things like houses and raising children.
• While early signs show some increase in shopping, experts question if these plans can change China's saving culture to a spending culture.

The Chinese government has launched an ambitious $41 billion discount programme to encourage its citizens to spend more money. This initiative includes subsidies for various products, from household appliances and home decor to electric vehicles and smartwatches. The programme is part of a broader economic strategy as Beijing faces the challenge of declining consumption and deflation, where prices have fallen for 18 months in a row over the past two years. Unlike many major economies struggling with post-Covid inflation, China is experiencing the opposite problem – consumers are not spending enough, causing businesses to cut prices to attract buyers, which leads to reduced profits, slower hiring, stagnant wages, and economic stagnation.

中國政府推出了一項雄心勃勃的 410 億美元折扣計劃，以鼓勵國民增加消費。這項計劃為各種產品提供補貼，從家用電器和家居裝飾到電動車和智慧手錶。這項計劃是北京面對消費下滑和通貨緊縮挑戰時更廣泛經濟策略的一部分，過去兩年來物價已連續 18 個月下跌。與許多主要經濟體在後疫情時代掙扎的通貨膨脹不同，中國正經歷相反的問題——消費者消費不足，導致企業降價吸引買家，這進而導致利潤減少、招聘放緩、工資停滯以及經濟停頓。

Chinese consumers' reluctance to spend comes from either not having enough money or lacking confidence in their future financial security. About a quarter of China's workforce consists of low-paid migrant workers who lack full access to urban social benefits, making them particularly vulnerable during economic uncertainty. Additionally, the near-collapse of the property market has made Chinese households more risk-averse, causing them to cut back on spending. Since most Chinese families have invested significant wealth in their homes, the declining property sector has negatively affected household sentiment and spending behaviour. According to a 2024 study by Chinese think tank YuWa, raising a child to adulthood in China costs 6.8 times the country's GDP per capita—among the highest in the world compared to the US (4.1), Japan (4.3), and Germany (3.6). These financial pressures have reinforced China's saving culture, with households managing to save 32% of their disposable income even in a struggling economy.

中國消費者不願消費，原因在於要麼沒有足夠的金錢，要麼對未來的財務安全缺乏信心。中國約四分之一的勞動力由低薪農民工組成，他們無法完全獲得城市社會福利，這使他們在經濟不確定時期特別脆弱。此外，房地產市場的近乎崩潰使中國家庭更加規避風險，導致他們減少開支。由於大多數中國家庭在住房上投入了大量財富，房地產行業的衰退已對家計情緒和消費行為產生負面影響。根據中國育媧人口研究智庫（YuWa）2024 年的研究，在中國撫養一個孩子到成年的成本是該國人均 GDP 的 6.8 倍——比較而言，這在全球是最高的之一，美國為 4.1 倍，日本為 4.3 倍，德國為 3.6 倍。這些財務壓力強化了中國的儲蓄文化，即使在經濟困難時期，家庭仍能將可支配收入的 32％存起來。

In response to these challenges, Beijing has announced several measures during the annual National People's Congress, including child care subsidies, increased wages, and better paid leave. The state planner is calling for efforts to "increase spending power" and encourage the development of products that would motivate consumers to spend. Premier Li Qiang has made boosting consumption the top priority for 2025, marking the first time in a decade that Beijing has given consumption such high importance. The government also plans to improve mechanisms for regular pay increases and the system for paid vacation days, which are currently fewer than 10 days annually for most workers.

為應對這些挑戰，北京在年度全國人民代表大會上宣布了數項措施，包括托兒補貼、增加工資和改善帶薪休假。國家規劃部門呼籲努力「提高消費能力」並鼓勵開發能夠激勵消費者消費的產品。李強總理已將提振消費列為 2025 年的首要任務，這標誌著北京十年來首次將消費賦予如此高的重要性。政府還計劃改善定期加薪機制和帶薪假期制度，目前大多數工人每年的帶薪假期少於 10 天。

Some initial signs of recovery have emerged. Retail sales grew 4% in the first two months of 2025, a positive indicator for consumption. Additionally, sales of new energy vehicles surged almost 80% in February from a year earlier, while smartphone sales increased by nearly 65% in late January. However, analysts question whether these measures will trigger a significant cultural shift from saving to spending. For consumption to drive growth, many experts believe the Chinese Communist Party must restore consumer confidence among young people struggling to find jobs or own homes. Some doubt whether China's leadership truly wants to create a consumer-driven economy, as it might shift power from the state to individuals.

一些初步的復甦跡象已經顯現。2025 年前兩個月零售額增長了 4％，這是消費的積極指標。此外，新能源汽車銷量較上年同期激增近 80％，而智慧型手機銷量在 1 月下旬增加了近 65％。然而，分析師質疑這些措施是否能引發從儲蓄到消費的重大文化轉變。為了讓消費推動增長，許多專家認為中國共產黨必須恢復在尋找工作或擁有住房方面掙扎的年輕族群消費信心。有些人懷疑中國領導層是否真正希望創建一個消費驅動型經濟，因為這可能會將權力從國家轉移到個人。

Keyword Drills 關鍵字：

1. Deflation (De-fla-tion) [noun. when prices go down over time]: Unlike many major economies struggling with post-Covid inflation, China is experiencing the opposite problem – deflation, where prices have fallen for 18 months in a row over the past two years.
2. Reluctance (Re-luc-tance) [noun. not wanting to do something]: Chinese consumers' reluctance to spend comes from either not having enough money or lacking confidence in their future financial security.
3. Disposable (Dis-pos-a-ble) [adjective. money left after paying taxes and bills that you can spend or save]: These financial pressures have reinforced China's saving culture, with households managing to save 32% of their disposable income even in a struggling economy.
4. Annually (An-nu-al-ly) [adverb. every year]: The government also plans to improve mechanisms for regular pay increases and the system for paid vacation days, which are currently fewer than 10 days annually for most workers.
5. Individuals (In-di-vid-u-als) [noun. single persons, not groups]: Some doubt whether China's leadership truly wants to create a consumer-driven economy, as it might shift power from the state to individuals.

Reference article:
1. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2gk8j06r0o
2. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/11/chinas-41-billion-plan-to-boost-consumption-is-just-a-start.html